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Patient London FTB

Paging Free Trader And Granit: Good Source Of 'live' Valuation Data

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Not sure if anyone on the forum has come across this before, but I've found a source of monthly revaluations of property that could be interesting to track over the next few months.

A company called Property Partner launched last year and is a kind of crowdfunded buy-to-let venture. As part of their stated commitment to transparency they have the properties in their portfolio revalued monthly and they publish the data. They started doing this in September 2015 and recently published June's entry.

I think in the hands of data shamans Free Trader and Granit this could be interesting. The data can be found on Property Partner's Open House blog.

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Not convinced its much use, falling prices would put them out of business, so not surprising that everything is positive.

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Not convinced its much use, falling prices would put them out of business, so not surprising that everything is positive.

Compare May to June - they have already started down-valuations.

They have made a rod for their own backs by committing to transparency.

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Thanks PLFTB, I was aware of the platform but I haven't been following it.

According to their valuation policy, from May 2016 they no longer give monthly estimates of property values. These weren't particularly useful anyway, as all they were doing was adjusting a property's value based on latest reported movements in the Land Registry HPI. As the LR HPI has been replaced by the new ONS HPI, they've suspended monthly valuations until they've had more time to assess this new index.

Valuation continues to be done on a quarterly basis however using a "RICS Chartered Surveyor's desktop valuation", which I take to mean some automated valuation process and not a genuine valuation (which would be too expensive anyway at four times a year). Since we don't know how this 'black box' valuation is determined, I think we should be cautious about reading too much into their numbers. Nevertheless I'll keep an eye on it, and thanks again for highlighting it.

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Thanks for the heads up. Like a nerd batsymbol :D

I'm not sure I fully understand what they do and I only had a few minutes so this is a bit rough but the secondary market data is pretty interesting/weird:

http://imgur.com/a/pWC3m

Each chart is for a single property, shows the valuation in red (green is the initial valuation just to make it easier to read across) and then trades of the shares on the secondary market in blue (sized on size of each trade). I multiplied everything by 1m to give the implied valuations, there's 1m shares per property afaict.

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Hey Granit I took a quick look at this yesterday and couldn't quite get my head around it, but still should have said thank you for the effort. Sorry! And to you too FT.

Anyway, I've just gone back to it and realised that actually you've done all of the approx 45 properties rather than the 6 or 7 it looked like you'd done before I clicked the 'see more' button at the bottom. If anyone else is interested, the charts of the properties that have been in the portfolio for the longest and have had some (slight) down-valuations are nearer the bottom than the top.

Absolutely awesome work, thank you, and putting the share trades in there is the icing on the cake. Looks for a few, especially the first two (last in order of the charts) properties in Croydon and Ilford, like early secondary investors shifted some shares at valuations that are not going to be had again in a hurry!

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And plenty seem to be trading at 20% under valuation too. I don't really know why the market prices and valuations would be so different for each property, liquidity probably.

I had a quick scan of their FAQ, these properties are going for 3% gross yield and you can only redeem after 5yrs, but that's dependent on them selling a property. afaict each property is owned by a SPV and investors own shares in that specific SPV rather than the fund so I've got no idea how consensus is reached about when to sell the property you have part ownership of to be able to pay redemptions (I might have missed that bit in the FAQ tbf). The only reliable way out seems to be this low liquidity secondary market which will almost certainly become completely illiquid if the shit hits the fan. What a shitty investment proposition.

I've got the script now so i'll update at their next data release, it's an interesting company to keep an eye on (track their demise). Feel free to bump if I don't remember to.

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They've either stopped publishing their latest valuations (or stopped getting them valued, which I think is what some of the commercial funds did post referendum), no valuations have been updated since July. Or maybe they're using the standard property industry data feed that only updates when growth >0.5% MoM.

Market prices seem to vary geographically, but kinda support what has been seen in other data, Central London (the Whitechapel apartments primarily) getting killed but outer London and further afield not really seeing any big price falls across the board yet.

http://imgur.com/a/pbVYT

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They've either stopped publishing their latest valuations (or stopped getting them valued, which I think is what some of the commercial funds did post referendum), no valuations have been updated since July. Or maybe they're using the standard property industry data feed that only updates when growth >0.5% MoM.

Market prices seem to vary geographically, but kinda support what has been seen in other data, Central London (the Whitechapel apartments primarily) getting killed but outer London and further afield not really seeing any big price falls across the board yet.

http://imgur.com/a/pbVYT

I think they're just doing desktop valuations and periodic human valuations, with the next of the latter set for October.

Market prices pretty strong all considered - would say it's the search for yield in action.

Edit - forgot to say thanks for the data update, which looks great with the trendlines

Edited by Patient London FTB

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No probs.

You're right, I missed this:

https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/propertypartner-blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/06103001/Screen-Shot-2016-09-06-at-10.28.27-AM.png

If this is legit, it's crazy, +~25% MoM

fxhnkAcl.png

It looks more like a fat finger error

It could easily be legit. I'm guessing the figures in gray are desktop valuations based on previous valuations, and the bolded figures are detailed valuations. The flat was purchased in early 2015 when the market was going up strongly, so it could be down to that. It could even be that it was bought off-plan, so the initial valuation was reflecting the risk of the build not turning out right and the bold valuation recognises that it did.

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Property Partner is buying property again after a bit of a hiatus. 

They're getting a 5% gross yield on three flats near the seafront in Hove. Investors being promised a 3.5% dividend after all costs and the 2% charge on their initial investment.

Blurb here. What's interesting for me is the effect on the market and the decisions being made by participants (hello Venger). Would love to know who the seller is, but you don't get many clues. This is what PP says: 

"By bulk purchasing the flats, we were able to offer the vendor speed and certainty of sale. This, combined with our position as a cash buyer enabled us to secure a reduced purchase price of £755,000 for these flats [note: this is the price for all three, not for each flat] versus an RICS certified Vacant Possession Value (break-up price) of the individual flats of £825,000." [note: PP don't make this explicit but I guess the flats are sold with tenants in place]

Whether you think PP have got the price right or not (of course the latter), there's a seller here taking their money off the table and giving up an income stream of 5%, while there's a conservative buyer. PP use 50% gearing, have got a five-year fix mortgage and are assuming rental values won't increase over that term.

I'm torn between interpreting the fact that their bid was successful as an indication the froth is coming off the market and interpreting it as PP's army of investors being the froth ... 

 

Edited by Patient London FTB

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O/T (sorry sorry - just one post) - was cheering on someone with the username Granit in the latest Sunday Times comment section. Up against BTL and HPI+++ me-me minds, but not the only ones with Times subscriptions. 

Quote

granit 4 days ago
I feel really sorry for the man who has got balls deep in debt and then fled to Malta to avoid paying tax.  What a guy.

Quote

granit 3 days ago
So it's clear, I fully agree with the Govt's tax changes.  I think s21 is great and fair, as would any of my (30ish y/o) friends if they knew about it.  You and your hyper-leveraged mates from that website can try and run the altruistic landlord PR exercise but no one believes any of it (go and order the comments in your last fluff piece in the Guardian by upvotes).   I know noone who wants to be a long term tenant, they are renting because people like you have preferential tax and financing treatment and can outbid them. You can tell yourself you are doing good if it helps you sleep at night but to the rest of the country, you have no social purpose, you are leeches and I hope you are forced to sell up en masse.  Damn the lot of you.

:)

(although *S24* - a pass because of what was in the article and the other comments)

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/can-buy-to-let-still-add-up-once-new-tax-rules-come-into-force-vc5jt0dh6

http://www.propertytribes.com/pt-members-featured-in-sunday-times-s24-piece-t-127627661.html

Can't wait to see the BTL/property-investing crowdfunding model severely tested.  Aware of quite a few such property investing platforms hunting for easy miracle yield & HPI+++

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^ha, i must have been confused by all the s21s that have landed on my doormat over the years.

http://imgur.com/a/OzCp6

This will be an interesting one to watch, trading below the initial purchase price.  The flats in Whitechapel look like they're heading the same way too.

VrQowu5l.png

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Granit said:

^ha, i must have been confused by all the s21s that have landed on my doormat over the years.

http://imgur.com/a/OzCp6

This will be an interesting one to watch, trading below the initial purchase price.  The flats in Whitechapel look like they're heading the same way too.

VrQowu5l.png

 

 

 

 

 

Superb! Thanks for the wizardry. 

What's going on with '5 flats, Dutch quarter, Colchester'? It's all trading below the initial valuation - is the valuation figure right? 

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On 16/07/2016 at 10:23 AM, Patient London FTB said:

Not sure if anyone on the forum has come across this before, but I've found a source of monthly revaluations of property that could be interesting to track over the next few months.

A company called Property Partner launched last year and is a kind of crowdfunded buy-to-let venture. As part of their stated commitment to transparency they have the properties in their portfolio revalued monthly and they publish the data. They started doing this in September 2015 and recently published June's entry.

I think in the hands of data shamans Free Trader and Granit this could be interesting. The data can be found on Property Partner's Open House blog.

Warning sounded on crowdfunding risks as watchdog calls for new rules to protect investors

Tougher regulation of crowdfunding platforms is needed to protect investors struggling to compare platforms and assess risks and returns, the financial watchdog said today. The Financial Conduct Authority, which launched a review into the sector in July, said crowdfunding firms did not always met their requirements to be ‘clear, fair and not misleading’ with customers. Calling for 'additional rules' in the market, it also said that peer-to-peer lenders should be regulated like mortgage lenders to improve safety and transparency.

The FCA said that in both loan-based and investment-based crowdfunding, it was difficult for investors to compare platforms or to compare crowdfunding with other asset classes because product offerings were 'complex and often unclear'. And added: 'It is difficult for investors to assess the risks and returns of investing on a platform.'

 

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28 minutes ago, Patient London FTB said:

Superb! Thanks for the wizardry. 

What's going on with '5 flats, Dutch quarter, Colchester'? It's all trading below the initial valuation - is the valuation figure right? 

afaict yes, it matches what it says here:

https://www.propertypartner.co/properties/UKCO11BA002?p=prop1&sc=marketplace-geared

I don't know why the valuation is so different to '9 flats, Dutch quarter' though - they're in the same block

 

 

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On 12/15/2016 at 1:44 PM, Granit said:

afaict yes, it matches what it says here:

https://www.propertypartner.co/properties/UKCO11BA002?p=prop1&sc=marketplace-geared

I don't know why the valuation is so different to '9 flats, Dutch quarter' though - they're in the same block

 

 

Latest monthly update from Property Partner: https://resources.propertypartner.co/open-house-december-2016/

Some teeny tiny down valuations from the surveyors. Would love to know what's going on with the secondary market if you have time to process the data. 

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On 15/12/2016 at 1:44 PM, Granit said:

afaict yes, it matches what it says here:

https://www.propertypartner.co/properties/UKCO11BA002?p=prop1&sc=marketplace-geared

I don't know why the valuation is so different to '9 flats, Dutch quarter' though - they're in the same block

 

 

Latest monthly update from Property Partner: https://resources.propertypartner.co/open-house-january-2017/

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