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splatthefly

What Price Crash?

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As some of you already know we run a website for property investors at [ Link removed by Moderator ] It heps us keep a close eye on what is happening out there in the market. I read an interesting article today which perfectly reflects what is really happening.

"PREDICTIONS of a property slowdown have faded away, with analysts almost united today in declaring house prices to be on the rise again.

Gloomy forecasts at the beginning of 2005 have gradually been reversed during the year with the last major price monitor coming into line by reporting an above inflation rise.

A report today from Hometrack claims that house prices are rising for the first time in 18 months, with prices 0.1 per cent higher in December.

The significance of the announcement is that Hometrack has been the most gloomy of all the house price monitors over the past year. With today’s report, all the indicators are pointing in the same direction: up.

The overall picture has now become fairly clear. In 2004, the house price boom finally came to an end: but what replaced it was 12 months in which prices stagnated rather than slumped. And by the end of 2005 the market was starting to look rather more healthy, and 2006 will show a rising market."

So - NO price crash then!

Splatthefly

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The Vested INterests said the same thing at the beginning of the last crash. "Prices never go down only up."

The problem is that prices are cyclical and are determined by market forces. Debt, softening employment, falling GDP and devaluing pound are market forces that eventually work their way into fixed assets such as houses.

The only thing keeping prices at historic highs is perception. As Mervyn King of the BoE pointed out many months ago, house prices are a matter of opinion whereas debt is real.

Why should the UK be any different from other bubble markets? Look at the CRaassssh links I have posted on this site recently that show dramatic falls in the US with new homes sales dropping 22% in some areas. Some parts of Bubble Boston are dropping 20% in a matter of weeks. We are at thge beginning of the long awaited down cycyle. Remember, there has never been a plateau following a spike--never.

The UK and US followed each other during the last 3 housing crashes so why expect anything different this time around?

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As some of you already know we run a website for property investors at [ Link removed by Moderator ] It heps us keep a close eye on what is happening out there in the market. I read an interesting article today which perfectly reflects what is really happening.

"PREDICTIONS of a property slowdown have faded away, with analysts almost united today in declaring house prices to be on the rise again.

Gloomy forecasts at the beginning of 2005 have gradually been reversed during the year with the last major price monitor coming into line by reporting an above inflation rise.

A report today from Hometrack claims that house prices are rising for the first time in 18 months, with prices 0.1 per cent higher in December.

The significance of the announcement is that Hometrack has been the most gloomy of all the house price monitors over the past year. With today’s report, all the indicators are pointing in the same direction: up.

The overall picture has now become fairly clear. In 2004, the house price boom finally came to an end: but what replaced it was 12 months in which prices stagnated rather than slumped. And by the end of 2005 the market was starting to look rather more healthy, and 2006 will show a rising market."

So - NO price crash then!

Splatthefly

It's like Santa Claus isn't it? Its so comforting to believe in a warm cuddly fiction that means all is right in the world.

Of course there's no crash and you will be inundated with fresh-faced young investors keen to hear your patter in the New Year. After all a 0.1% rise in December would easily cover your costs....Oh.

Also if you are going to quote a VI ("gloomy" was the giveaway) Splat please at least put the provenance.

My report - weak, unattributed, derivative. And laughably palpably obviously wrong.

The Fox

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Hi Splatthefly, and welcome to HPC. It's always interesting to have bull on board. :)

You say that prices in 2005 have stagnated. Taken as a UK national average this is true, but completely unhelpful. It masks the 20%+ rises in some parts of Scotland and the 5+% FALLS in many towns much further south.

As Dr Bubb says, please stick around. 2006 promises to be an interesting year. The inner city apartment market looks to be nosediving already and the UK consumers debt position is worsening.

The boom rippled out from the South and the crash is now also - AGAIN. This is so much like 1989, I feel like dusting off my Hi-Tec pumps and growing a mullet. :D

Edited by Flash

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As some of you already know we run a website for property investors at [ Link removed by Moderator ] It heps us keep a close eye on what is happening out there in the market. I read an interesting article today which perfectly reflects what is really happening.

"PREDICTIONS of a property slowdown have faded away, with analysts almost united today in declaring house prices to be on the rise again.

Gloomy forecasts at the beginning of 2005 have gradually been reversed during the year with the last major price monitor coming into line by reporting an above inflation rise.

A report today from Hometrack claims that house prices are rising for the first time in 18 months, with prices 0.1 per cent higher in December.

The significance of the announcement is that Hometrack has been the most gloomy of all the house price monitors over the past year. With today’s report, all the indicators are pointing in the same direction: up.

The overall picture has now become fairly clear. In 2004, the house price boom finally came to an end: but what replaced it was 12 months in which prices stagnated rather than slumped. And by the end of 2005 the market was starting to look rather more healthy, and 2006 will show a rising market."

So - NO price crash then!

Splatthefly

Depends on your sources it seems:

http://portal.telegraph.co.uk/property/main.jhtml? xml=/property/2005/12/17/pempty17.xml&sSheet=/property/2005/12/17/ixptop12.html

"The souring of the inner-city dream has left a glut of empty, new-build apartments, affordable to few and situated in communities bereft of families. What now for the super-cool, urban living space that stands empty? Caroline McGhie reports on a post-Sipps nightmare"

The demise of BTL will have repercussions as over-supply always does.

Edited by Realistbear

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As some of you already know we run a website for property investors at [ Link removed by Moderator ] It heps us keep a close eye on what is happening out there in the market. I read an interesting article today which perfectly reflects what is really happening.

"PREDICTIONS of a property slowdown have faded away, with analysts almost united today in declaring house prices to be on the rise again.

Gloomy forecasts at the beginning of 2005 have gradually been reversed during the year with the last major price monitor coming into line by reporting an above inflation rise.

A report today from Hometrack claims that house prices are rising for the first time in 18 months, with prices 0.1 per cent higher in December.

The significance of the announcement is that Hometrack has been the most gloomy of all the house price monitors over the past year. With today’s report, all the indicators are pointing in the same direction: up.

The overall picture has now become fairly clear. In 2004, the house price boom finally came to an end: but what replaced it was 12 months in which prices stagnated rather than slumped. And by the end of 2005 the market was starting to look rather more healthy, and 2006 will show a rising market."

So - NO price crash then!

Splatthefly

Eh?! No one has said it yet .......................

AWOOOGA!!!

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AWOOGA indeed .... i dunno. they just get lamer and lamer.

"As some of you already know we run a website for property investors... It heps us keep a close eye on what is happening out there in the market."

right, so you claim to provide some kind of investment advice or reports.

Yet...

* you have no understanding (or even knowledge of the existence) of market cycles

* You provide investment advice but obviously believe in FREE MONEY...

My my. Where can we sign up for this fabulous 'advice' you offer??? :-) :-) :-)

PS - 'hope that helps'

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splatthefly, (more like splat the misguided bull)

I am staggered by your ignorance.

When it comes to TTRTR, I just think it is all tongue in cheek, so I don't even bother to respond.

Edited by Buffer Bear

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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