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Time to raise the rents.

The Great House Price Crash That Never Was

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Well whoever the VERY KEEN moderator is, I don't think you had any reason at all to delete this topic. Your keeness to censor shows your keeness to keep this forum biased to your opinion.

At the start of this year Mr Bootle wrote in a report for Deloitte: “We continue to expect house prices to drop by a total of 20 per cent or so over the next two years, but a bigger fall cannot be ruled out.”

But last week, Capital Economics announced a “forecast change”: noting the lack of a sustained fall in house prices in 2005, they now predict house prices to drop by just 2 per cent in both 2006 and 2007.

A drop of 5 per cent in prices in the next two years would be unwelcome, but would not have a deep impact. This is the way the great house price crash that never was has ended: not with a bang but a whimper.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-1960912,00.html

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I had moved your post to the Hometrack up 0.1% thread. The board is already overspilling with countless new threads, and I am not sure we really need a new thread for every quote from a newspaper article.

Thanks for the explaination. But the article I posted is a broad article covering the convergence of indices showing rising prices rather than simply an article about Hometrack.

So IMO the article deserves its own thread and also IMO that is why different opinions are needed, because they allow a different conclusion from similar information.

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TTRTR,

If Bootle and Capital were wrong about 2005,

they can certainly be wrong about 2006 as well. Albeit in the opposite direction.

(The revision is simply an admission that their previous excessively-Bearish call for

2005 had cost them business, and was proving hard to defend. The facts are still there,

but they have had to sidestep their detractors to stay in business.)

It is a common phenomenon to see Bears capitulate right before a big slide.

The idiot sheep that are buying now think the worst is over. It is not daylight you see

in the tunnel, it is the oncoming freight train

:D:D:D

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Guest Bart of Darkness

The Great House Price Crash That Never Was

Are you predicting the end of history in the housing market then TTRTR?

Nothing more will ever happen in the housing market. It will remain in an unending present where everything stays the same.

A kind of Groundhog day for bulls, when February 3rd (or in this case a market correction) never dawns.

From a quote in another thread:

"During a bubble, people don't believe that prices will fall," he said. "This has been proven wrong so many times in the past. But there's something in human nature that makes us unable to learn from history."

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/12/25/business...ey/25japan.html

Written by someone with first hand experience.

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"During a bubble, people don't believe that prices will fall," he said. "This has been proven wrong so many times in the past. But there's something in human nature that makes us unable to learn from history."

Fart of Darkness tells it straight. :lol::lol::lol:;)

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TTRTR,

If Bootle and Capital were wrong about 2005,

they can certainly be wrong about 2006 as well. Albeit in the opposite direction.

(The revision is simply an admission that their previous excessively-Bearish call for

2005 had cost them business, and was proving hard to defend. The facts are still there,

but they have had to sidestep their detractors to stay in business.)

It is a common phenomenon to see Bears capitulate right before a big slide.

The idiot sheep that are buying now think the worst is over. It is not daylight you see

in the tunnel, it is the oncoming freight train

FACT: There is no pain in STR, only monthly savings

Are you sure that light in the tunnel isn't from the departed train that the STR's got off at when we were at the last station?

BTW. I agree that Capital Economics have an equal potential to be wrong next year. When HPI is 5-10%, I'll remind you of that.

:D

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At risk of repeating myself the very same Roger Bootle predicted that houses would be seen as a place to live and never again an investment, that was in approx 1994/5 i.e just before things started to take off again. I take his latest change of position as very heartening his timing as ever seems impecable.

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Seeing as TTRTR keeps posting the same old, over and over again, I feel justified in sticking this in from another thread.

People who have seen my posts on here will know I STRed in December 2003. When ours was on the market, we noticed in the paper that the next-door neighbours at our old house also had their house on the market. We were absolutely astonished to see that they wanted £385k. I remember my wife and I discussing it and we thought £325k would be top money - what were they and the estate agents thinking?!.

Well time has gone by and the couple that were selling have split up. The property stayed on the market - slowly going down in price - for a long, long time. A few months ago I noticed it was up for auction. My wife and I were just talking about our old next-door neighbour as we no longer see her at the school. It suddenly occurred to me I had never looked to find out what it sold for.

Put on the market late 2003 for £385k.

Sold at auction October 2005 for £260k.

That's a drop of 32% from an admittedly ludicrous starting price.

Bring it on - it's going to be a Happy New Year for us HPCers.

PS - Local blocks of flats still unsold after a YEAR. 90% sold - ALLEGEDLY - funny only 6 out of 24 sold on nethouseprices. They just can't seem to get that last 10% away!!!

People are still walking around with their eyes closed and, because people keep telling them, over and over and over again, that the market has not, will not and cannot fall - they believe them.

Whenever anyone posts what I believe to be patent nonsense, I feel I have to post a real world example of price falls, just in case any demented would-be FTB gives up and ties a 200k mortgage around their neck.

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Are you sure that light in the tunnel isn't from the departed train that the STR's got off at when we were at the last station?

BTW. I agree that Capital Economics have an equal potential to be wrong next year. When HPI is 5-10%, I'll remind you of that.

:D

I am not sure this site will still be going in 2012 TTRR. Might have to be an email. Besides 5-10% on a market that has stood still for 5 years isn't that great shakes.

Crash/slide/stagnation - call it what you like. Prices aren't going up and costs and inflation carry on so it's falling. Throw a 16% rise in the stock market into the equation - still offering a 3%+ yield - and it is looking very sick.

All markets need a shakeout. It's how equilibrium is recovered. Why not take it now and get it out of the way? The weaker landlords will fold and the stronger ones will benefit.

You could hope to delay the correction for longer but why would any investor want to continue participating in a market with systemic imbalances when market theory tells them time and again those imbalances must be corrected either rapidly (UK 1988-94) or protractedly (Japan 1990-present)? Either way they get corrected.

The Fox

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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