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uro_who

Next Uk Rate Move

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I'm two steps from someone on the monetary policy committee (OK be it a hawk). And my source tells me that there is only one direction for UK interest rates in the short and medium term, and that is up!

Reasons why, I didn't get, but you can take your pick out of salary inflation, improving retail sales, life in the property market. Not to mention USA and european rates on the up.

Good news for bears!

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I'm two steps from someone on the monetary policy committee (OK be it a hawk). And my source tells me that there is only one direction for UK interest rates in the short and medium term, and that is up!

Reasons why, I didn't get, but you can take your pick out of salary inflation, improving retail sales, life in the property market. Not to mention USA and european rates on the up.

Good news for bears!

don't doubt you (much) but i think they'll hold as long as they can whilst fiddling the inflation figure still more.

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I'll admit I'm uncertain of the 2006 direction. My gut feeling is they need to go up. But I can also see there is a case to reduce them to buoy the economy (or at least try to - I don't think it will work). Based on that it makes sense to leave them unchanged.

But I agree, if they go up or down, February/March are the key months to watch. If rates go up at this time I think it will be quite a shock the the "spring bounce".

Edited by Portent

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I'm two steps from someone on the monetary policy committee (OK be it a hawk). And my source tells me that there is only one direction for UK interest rates in the short and medium term, and that is up!

Reasons why, I didn't get, but you can take your pick out of salary inflation, improving retail sales, life in the property market. Not to mention USA and european rates on the up.

Good news for bears!

Excellent news that we'll be following the USA and Euro interest rate hikes.

Personally I'd like to see the rate in double figures.

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I was able to call all the rate decisions of 2005 but I'll admit I'm uncertain of the 2006 direction. My gut feeling is they need to go up. But I can also see there is a case to reduce them to buoy the economy (or at least try to - I don't think it will work). Based on that it makes sense to leave them unchanged.

But I agree, if they go up or down, February/March are the key months to watch. If rates go up at this time I think it will be quite a shock the the "spring bounce".

quite an unwelcome shock, along with the winter utility bills (gas/electric) and their big increases....oh, and don't forget the above-inflation rise in the council tax bill !

Blimey, we need three rate cuts just to cancel that lot out ! :lol:

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I was able to call all the rate decisions of 2005 but I'll admit I'm uncertain of the 2006 direction. My gut feeling is they need to go up. But I can also see there is a case to reduce them to buoy the economy (or at least try to - I don't think it will work). Based on that it makes sense to leave them unchanged.

But I agree, if they go up or down, February/March are the key months to watch. If rates go up at this time I think it will be quite a shock the the "spring bounce".

I agree feb/mar is the key time, mainly because if I remember thats when hard christmas retail figures are out... if it's another "record" the BoE may concentrate elsewhere and rise the rates (as I think they should)... yet of the high street is bad the all of the public might noticed by then (and maybe the BoE takes them into account)

Either way, its down.

As I typed this: BBC1 News just said it was brisk high street trading.... yet the shot at the time shows a couple of people walking through a shopping centre... then switches to inside a shop.

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I think that Merv and the other hawks hold traditional views regarding interest rates, eg the relationship to US rates, the effect of ignoring this on inflation in the medium term. Merv is on record as saying that retail sales figures and the high street are not the BOE's concern, wage inflation and general inflation are. If he's true to his word, although the pressure for up is reduced slightly, up it must go.

The doves on the other hand are worried about the greater economy, sympathisers with GB (think about the flux between governement and industry) are looking to reduce rates. That is not the BOE's remit however as set by GB.

Should be fascinating to watch whether they follow the rules of engagement or the the greasy pole!

Meanwhile I'm enjoying saving my cash by renting.

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I'm two steps from someone on the monetary policy committee (OK be it a hawk). And my source tells me that there is only one direction for UK interest rates in the short and medium term, and that is up!

Reasons why, I didn't get, but you can take your pick out of salary inflation, improving retail sales, life in the property market. Not to mention USA and european rates on the up.

Good news for bears!

This is a troll post for goodness sake.

Sorry uro_who but I don't believe you have it from a member of the MPC, albeit via two other sets of lips. Chinese whispers I reckon.

You bears are so easy to take the piss out off.

Some guy comes on here, giving you what you want to hear and you practically wet your self with excitement.

Keep your feet on the ground - it ain't the trigger you are looking for. I'll bet you there is no upward rate move in either February or March - and I'm pretty certain that'll be the picture throughout 2006.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

This is a troll post for goodness sake.

Sorry uro_who but I don't believe you have it from a member of the MPC, albeit via two other sets of lips.

Just don`t consult him if you want a vasectomy IMupNorth. Ouch. :D

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Must admit I think they'll go down before they go up. But they're pisssing in the wind. 0.25% won't make any difference - other than a bit of sentiment - look IRs are going down again so you can afford to borrow even more ...

I heard today forecasts of 5% in the States within 6 months. In which case if we do go down 0.25% - we'll soon be going back up again.

I think the next rise in Council Tax will spark something off. We had a couple of pensioners with the courage to go to prison this time. Next year I think we'll see organized revolts - and about time too. The poll tax where I live is like a mortgage - £2200 this year - reckon £2500 next.

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Sorry Imupnorth, I promise you its true, via the relation of an MPC member. Imupmidlands so you can trust me.

The GMC can strike me off if I'm telling a porky. My numbers [ Removed by Moderator ]. Feel free to report me.

As for the vasectomy can I offer you an orchidectomy instead? Only joking.

Happy Christmas and new year (sorry I orignally forgot my manners).

And by the way, I agree it seems counter intuitive. But I probably don't have the figures that the BOE does.

Edited by The Moderators

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Guest pioneer31

If in doubt, do nowt

I don't think IR's are going anywhere - the reason being that on one hand they should be reduced because of a,b,c and on the other hand they should be raised because of x,y,z.

Between the devil and the deep blue sea.

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Sorry Imupnorth, I promise you its true, via the relation of an MPC member. Imupmidlands so you can trust me.

The GMC can strike me off if I'm telling a porky. My numbers [ Removed by Moderator ]. Feel free to report me.

As for the vasectomy can I offer you an orchidectomy instead? Only joking.

Happy Christmas and new year (sorry I orignally forgot my manners).

And by the way, I agree it seems counter intuitive. But I probably don't have the figures that the BOE does.

For it to be true you would need to be related to all nine members. ;)

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Yes, the first increase of .25% February 2006. <_<

I wish I had your confidence.

The base rate 'should' go up, but I have a feeling that it will either drop or stay the same in the first half of the year.

My reasoning is a little flakey (but I think the rate should go up, so it would be);

The BOE see inflation pressures as 'easing off' (personally I think this is temporary).

The BOE seem susceptible to pressure from the manufacturing/retail industry and, of course Mr Brown.

I could be (I hope) I am wrong, if ECB and the FED continue to raise rates then I see little option but to add another 0.25%, but I can't see them reacting to this in the first half of the year.

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I agree, I only know the feelings of one member, its a committee decision so one hawk will probably be offset by another dove. I also don't mean January the move will be up, I just mean that the pressures are toward higher rather than lower rates.

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I believe you. Now how much is that varicocele repair? B)

NHS for free!

Private, it depends whether you want the standard or microsurgical repair. If you're frightened of surgery (usually a healthy starting point) then getting a radiologist to block of the vessels looks the least frightening. The success rate is lower and the complication rate higher than microsurgical repair however.

Why not get a nice PCT to pay for it on the NHS.

Alternatively, what's wrong with a bag of worms? it's a good party piece.

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I'm two steps from someone on the monetary policy committee (OK be it a hawk). And my source tells me that there is only one direction for UK interest rates in the short and medium term, and that is up!

Reasons why, I didn't get, but you can take your pick out of salary inflation, improving retail sales, life in the property market. Not to mention USA and european rates on the up.

Good news for bears!

The members of the Bank of England proudly show off their new

'internet interocitor'

Helping them calculate where the next move in interest rates will go.

internetinterocitor9tt.png

I think Blair's forehead is giving him away now!

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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