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Perfectionist

Humanity Is Doomed In 30 Years !

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Guest Bart of Darkness

Time to cancel that pension plan and spend the cash on loose cars and fast women.

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I'll just rent 2 houses 393 metres apart, look up into the sky at the salient point and then nip over to the one that's not in the impact zone and sit back in me Parker Knoll recliner, comfortable in the knowledge that I've avoided a fate that destroyed the dinosaurs. Easy.

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Surely we have a modern solution to the problem of asteroids?

Preparation H.

yeah,lunar timeshare apartments!

better book mine now,wouldn't want to miss the boat would you.

:P

p.s it's peak season in march 2036 and they'll have a 7 year waiting list.

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Hrm, time to order that Aston Martin then, I just hope the waiting list isn't quite 30 years.

Better to enjoy it now whilst petrol is cheap, and why should boomers only have the pleasure of having all the fun whilst trashing the environment in the process, if I'm to live with the longterm consequences then I should at least experience the enjoyment of its destruction, unlike the apotheosis of the middle-aged balding to$$pot that is Clarkson and all of his ilk.

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Guest Bart of Darkness

Plots on the Moon going for £19.95 an acre.

Moon land.

Make sure you buy on the side facing the earth (much nicer views).

ug9.jpg

Suitable for FTB or investement.

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Case of idle fingers, I think:

Monica Grady, an expert in meteorites at the Open University, said: "It's a question of when, not if, a near Earth object collides with Earth. Many of the smaller objects break up when they reach the Earth's atmosphere and have no impact. However, a NEO larger than 1km [wide] will collide with Earth every few hundred thousand years and a NEO larger than 6km, which could cause mass extinction, will collide with Earth every hundred million years. We are overdue for a big one."

She is overdue for a big one, I don't know about the rest of us. These people are so childish. Academia is nowadays just a bureaucracy. They have their group-think mass-movements and after wasting a lot of other people's money they move onto the next way of strutting their funky stuff at international conferences. You would think just one of these muppets would register that not once, not ONCE in recorded history is there reliable evidence of any scale of casualty from a meteorite or asteroid. There is no reliable evidence that any city has ever been wasted by a direct or near hit from the skies. Why don't they all rush about screaming "the sky's going to fall on our heads!"

There is some evidence that an asteroid impact in the c6th in East Africa caused disruption of the global climate that was widely recorded at the time and had significant political consequences. There was the famous Tunguska asteroid that landed in East Siberia in 1908. There have doubtless been others in remote places. But that's the point, the risk is obviously absurdly low. How about putting some money into risks that are a little more direct, like earthquakes, tsunami and volcanoes?

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Guest Bart of Darkness

Of it being blown to bits? There's gonna be collateral damage.

It would have to be one mother of an explosion for the pieces to reach escape velocity and travel 250,000 miles across space.

However, insist on collision insurance just in case.

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high risk...high reward!!!

I'm game for getting a bit of lunar action!!!!

for £20 I'd do it for comedy value!!!!!

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The risk of a big impact is low (and I agree that the recent asteroid hysteria is probably more down to desire for funding than real hazard), but I believe a Tunguska-sized impact is expected to happen every couple of hundred years: that would probably be bad news now that the planet is far more populated than it was, and it would have been bad news in 1908 if it had hit a few hours earlier or later.

I guess the good news is that there's a 75% chance the next one will hit the ocean, but that wouldn't be so good for any coastal areas nearby.

You would think just one of these muppets would register that not once, not ONCE in recorded history is there reliable evidence of any scale of casualty from a meteorite or asteroid.

Except: a) we've only really known what comets and asteroids are for a couple of hundred years, B) odds are pretty much everyone living in the area where an impact occured would have been killed and c) there are a number of cities and cultures which just seem to have vanished, at least some of which could have been killed by such an impact. Some people have claimed, for example, that the Sodom and Gommorah story in the Bible may be based on an asteroid impact in the distant past.

Also I believe there have been at least a couple of near-impacts in the last forty years, with sizable rocks entering the atmosphere and bouncing out. I remember news stories about one in the 70s that came close to crashing into America, though I can't remember how big the estimated impact would have been.

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the risks may be small...but with 6bn people on the planet the chances are if it did hit we could probably say goodbye to a few hundred million.

makes the tsunami business look like the swimming pool wave-machine doesn't it?

I'm not sure about your percentages either......is there a distribution curve for impact sites in north/south hemispheres?

...the northern hemisphere contains more land and people,and a land impact might bring on a bit worse than tsunami....after all,if dust gets up and covers the sun then we can probably say goodbye to most of the food chain.

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Well, Tunguska was equivalent to about twenty megatons, I believe: so that would kill a large fraction of people within ten miles or so... don't have my nuclear weapon effects books here to look up the figures more accurately than that. So real bad if it hit a city, but only moderately bad if it hit a rural area. For a few hundred million you'd probably be looking at at least a million-year event.

Which isn't to say it can't happen tomorrow, but it's probably not worth worrying about when making housing decisions (other than being another good reason for not buying a house by the beach :)).

I'm not sure about your percentages either......is there a distribution curve for impact sites in north/south hemispheres?

Not sure: I'd imagine there would be different percentages due to the orientation in space, but how that affects likelihood of asteroid impacts is another question.

One thing I think it is safe to say is that the odds are high that within the next few hundred years some bin Laden-alike will deliberately try to drop a big asteroid on us... IMHO that's a far bigger threat in the medium term than a natural impact, though about a zero risk for another century or so.

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I always thought something like this would come totally out of the blue by some completely unmapped "rogue" comet/meteorite/asteroid and give us only a few months advance warning ...... oh what fun that would be ......

All this 5000/1 chance possibly in 30 odd years does sound like a bunch of professor types have taken on big mortgages and want a secure job long enough to pay it off :D

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'Radar Refinement of the Orbit of Asteroid 99942 Apophis (2004 MN4)':

http://echo.jpl.nasa.gov/~ostro/mn4/

The asteroid's 2029 flyby is closer than any known past or future approach by natural objects

larger than about 10 meters (other than objects that have entered Earth's atmosphere).

[...snip...]

Neither the nominal position nor any of its possible alternative positions touches the Earth, effectively ruling out an Earth impact in 2029.

It would have to be one mother of an explosion for the pieces to reach escape velocity and travel 250,000 miles across space. [bart of Darkness]

Maybe Saddam's WMD stockpile blowing up?

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The 2029 "fly by" isn't the one the professor types are worried about ...... they reckon the gravitational pull of the 2029 orbit "may" cause it to hit bang on then next time it comes around a few years later .....

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The 2029 "fly by" isn't the one the professor types are worried about ...... they reckon the gravitational pull of the 2029 orbit "may" cause it to hit bang on then next time it comes around a few years later .....

What do you mean it's cyclical? Asteroids only ever go up! If it doesn't hit us in 2029 then it's missed the boat. And what's all this Laurence Llewelyn-Bowen Through the Keyhole business? 1 in 5,500 chance in 2036. Pfft.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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