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General Election 2016?

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Labour in disarray..... May saying she will deliver on Brexit neutralising UKIP and making her look legitimate.

Maybe even as soon as September. What do you think?

Would cancel out the legitimacy of the Referendum and let May do what she wants to some extent.

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My prediction:

May won't call a GE until 2019+.

She also won't invoke Article 50. Even if she somehow does, it'll be with all the "Norway" concessions which nobody wants including free movement. Once people realise this, they'll get angry. 17M is quite a lot of people to piss off. UKIP will elect Wolfe (or Nige will return under the guise of an internal vote) and, under FTPT, will get loads of seats and shake things up, but TPTB won't give up their beloved EU without a fight.

Labour will be consigned to the dustbin for the next few years as per now.

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My prediction:

May won't call a GE until 2019+.

She also won't invoke Article 50. Even if she somehow does, it'll be with all the "Norway" concessions which nobody wants including free movement. Once people realise this, they'll get angry. 17M is quite a lot of people to piss off. UKIP will elect Wolfe (or Nige will return under the guise of an internal vote) and, under FTPT, will get loads of seats and shake things up, but TPTB won't give up their beloved EU without a fight.

Labour will be consigned to the dustbin for the next few years as per now.

Pretty good predictions imho

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There`s talk of spring ...May saying Brexit is Brexit won`t work if nowt`s been done

But would agree with the thinking,that it will work It`s their only chance leave it longer and if the game is to ignore the result of the referendum it will be undeniable at that point ,that they are doing just that ...that would be the end of team blue and red

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In law the next election date is already set ie in 4 more years. There are IIRC only two way it can be held earlier; 1 two thirds of MPs call for one, or 2, motion of no confidence in the government. The change was to prevent the incumbent calling an election just to suit themselves ie situations such as we have today.

Parliament would vote for an election if the Government wanted it though. I can't see them forcing the Government to be the Government against it's will.

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It's just too tempting not to go for it I think. May says she will deliver on Brexit, so where does that leave UKIP other than to tell it's members to vote Conservative?

Labour is dead in the water.

Landslide.

Edit:

Forgot to mention the Liberal Democrats... forgot they exist.

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It's just too tempting not to go for it I think. May says she will deliver on Brexit, so where does that leave UKIP other than to tell it's members to vote Conservative?

Labour is dead in the water.

Landslide.

Edit:

Forgot to mention the Liberal Democrats... forgot they exist.

If May doesn't do brexit, she could just sit there and ride it out with the rest of team blue/team red MPs - 4 years is a VERY long time in politics

Call an election now with labour the mess they are - who knows what kind of crazy coalition we'll get - things would be ungovernable

you could even end up with a faustian pact with UKIP nicking a LOT of labour seats and making some crazy short-term coalition with the SNP to give them scotland if UKIP can have England and wales out of the EU - UKIP should really call themselves EIP

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If May doesn't do brexit, she could just sit there and ride it out with the rest of team blue/team red MPs - 4 years is a VERY long time in politics

Call an election now with labour the mess they are - who knows what kind of crazy coalition we'll get - things would be ungovernable

you could even end up with a faustian pact with UKIP nicking a LOT of labour seats and making some crazy short-term coalition with the SNP to give them scotland if UKIP can have England and wales out of the EU - UKIP should really call themselves EIP

If May runs on Brexit means Brexit there is no UKIP.

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I don't follow the logic of calling it now. All it would mean is that we have exactly the same situation that we already have, in a few months time.

Labour need to get their act together. Once the Blairites are purged and form their new Establishment Party then Corbyn can get back to actually trying to woo the working classes and disenfranchised voters.

The real blinder would be if he come out now and said he's a Brexiter and wants us out. He'd win a lot of votes in the north after today, but would be a pariah in his Islington. :lol:

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I don't follow the logic of calling it now. All it would mean is that we have exactly the same situation that we already have, in a few months time.

Labour need to get their act together. Once the Blairites are purged and form their new Establishment Party then Corbyn can get back to actually trying to woo the working classes and disenfranchised voters.

The real blinder would be if he come out now and said he's a Brexiter and wants us out. He'd win a lot of votes in the north after today, but would be a pariah in his Islington. :lol:

The leader of the Labour Party is about to sue his own Party to stay leader.

I can't think of a better time to call a GE!

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But what result will it achieve? The Labour electorate will vote for Corbyn, not Eagle if you look at the voting split. He's got the mandate to lead.

All it will achieve is that Eagle will be inclined to eff off. But she'll do that anyway soon.

I really just want a powerful opposition. Corbyn himself isn't perhaps that man, but out of the shadows of Corbynism will come a new leader I am sure, and it won't be another Blairite clone.

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If May runs on Brexit means Brexit there is no UKIP.

An interesting thought, but May is deeply unpopular with Ukip voters and I would also say many Leavers.

Even if she see "Brexit lite" through, most Kippers would still despise her. Me included. Her policies are woeful.

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My prediction:

May won't call a GE until 2019+.

She also won't invoke Article 50. Even if she somehow does, it'll be with all the "Norway" concessions which nobody wants including free movement. Once people realise this, they'll get angry. 17M is quite a lot of people to piss off. UKIP will elect Wolfe (or Nige will return under the guise of an internal vote) and, under FTPT, will get loads of seats and shake things up, but TPTB won't give up their beloved EU without a fight.

Labour will be consigned to the dustbin for the next few years as per now.

I agree. The precedent being when John Major succeeded Mrs T in 1990. There wasn't a general election till 1992, which Cons won, then the one when Bliar won in 1997.

I'm one of the 17m, and I'd be pissed off if they reneged on Brexit.

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So what happens if Labour split and the party of opposition cease to exist? Does everything just soldier on until the next GE?

Are we in some kind of constitutional crisis right now?

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So what happens if Labour split and the party of opposition cease to exist? Does everything just soldier on until the next GE?

Are we in some kind of constitutional crisis right now?

The parties of opposition would form a coalition of hatred but would probably spend more energy hating each other than dealing with the tories.

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If May runs on Brexit means Brexit there is no UKIP.

Don't think that would be the case at all, I think the leave vote has solidified UKIP support, legitimised them in many peoples eyes and brought them further in to the mainstream. The fact we haven't already triggered article 50 damages any future claims about being fully pro-brexit, only doing so before any election would swing that the other way.

Had we invoked article 50 and be committed to it then yes I could see UKIP fading away, I'm not seeing that at all and to be honest while I'm a leave voter, I did so on specific issues with an understanding we were never really going to be fully out, many people voted based totally on a complete removal from EU, specifically with reference to free movement.

They have now become one of the few political parties to actually deliver what they promised, which was a referendum on EU membership. While it was a Tory government that called it, there is no way it would have happened without the mounting pressure from UKIP or specifically the share of votes won by UKIP.

Labour are rapidly losing credibility with many in their traditional hart lands. The mistake for UKIP in the general election was spreading their resources too thinly across the nation, what they need is a foot hold in parliament, a focused effort in the right constituencies would IMO bring about seats. They stood in 624 seats in 2015, obviously many would have been token efforts, reduce that drastically and I'd say they would make it work.

Yet again on here I'm sounding like a UKIP supporter/voter, I'm not and never will be.

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Yet again on here I'm sounding like a UKIP supporter/voter, I'm not and never will be.

It's an anonymous forum, nobody cares about the virtual signalling. Nothing wrong with voting for Ukip, 4M people did only last year.

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Don't think that would be the case at all, I think the leave vote has solidified UKIP support, legitimised them in many peoples eyes and brought them further in to the mainstream. The fact we haven't already triggered article 50 damages any future claims about being fully pro-brexit, only doing so before any election would swing that the other way.

Had we invoked article 50 and be committed to it then yes I could see UKIP fading away, I'm not seeing that at all and to be honest while I'm a leave voter, I did so on specific issues with an understanding we were never really going to be fully out, many people voted based totally on a complete removal from EU, specifically with reference to free movement.

They have now become one of the few political parties to actually deliver what they promised, which was a referendum on EU membership. While it was a Tory government that called it, there is no way it would have happened without the mounting pressure from UKIP or specifically the share of votes won by UKIP.

Labour are rapidly losing credibility with many in their traditional hart lands. The mistake for UKIP in the general election was spreading their resources too thinly across the nation, what they need is a foot hold in parliament, a focused effort in the right constituencies would IMO bring about seats. They stood in 624 seats in 2015, obviously many would have been token efforts, reduce that drastically and I'd say they would make it work.

Yet again on here I'm sounding like a UKIP supporter/voter, I'm not and never will be.

The problem is that UKIP is a right of centre party originally setup to appeal to disgruntled Tory voters. It has been very successful at picking up disgruntled Labour votes as well but essentially it is trying to appeal to a very diverse voter base that may not necessarily have common interests.

What did for Labour in Scotland was a left of centre nationalist party which essentially destroyed the old Scottish left establishment over two General Elections. I am not sure UKIP are going to be able to replicate that performance. Nonetheless the Labour party in England are just waiting to be taken apart by a rival party that can just get the combination of personnel and policies right. It is a rotten edifice whose MPs appear to reflect neither the views of its membership or its ordinary voters. They richly deserve to be sent to the electoral knackers yard.

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It's an anonymous forum, nobody cares about the virtual signalling. Nothing wrong with voting for Ukip, 4M people did only last year.

If the Tories don`t come through on brexit i will be voting that way for sure

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So what happens if Labour split and the party of opposition cease to exist? Does everything just soldier on until the next GE?

Are we in some kind of constitutional crisis right now?

Duh! Yes!! Government has a majority. Opposition not needed. SNP unlikely to side with Labour because of their putative stance against Brexit. So opposition is hot air anyway.

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How would she call it before 2020 (a law passed re 5 years act), so via two thirds of all MPs or vote of no confidence in her own government?

Labour, Liberal Democrats and SNP have called for an election already today. I am sure she could get half the tory mp's to back it if she wanted one.

90%+ of MPs would back an election if it was put to the house and the Conservative Party wanted it.

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The leader of the Labour Party is about to sue his own Party to stay leader.

I can't think of a better time to call a GE!

Unless you think that an effective opposition, holding a government to account, is an essential component of parliamentary democracy.

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How would she call it before 2020 (a law passed re 5 years act), so via two thirds of all MPs or vote of no confidence in her own government?

How did they change the term from 4 to 5 years who made the law five years ago if theres a will theres a way ?

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