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Bank Failure Sweepstake Thread - Which Turd Blows First?

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It seems that the stresses in the global economy are now threatening the banking system once more so for a bit of fun which smug HPC will perhaps guess lucky and pick the right country and bank which blows first.

The questions itself can have many different answers so I think we should be looking for an answer to the two following questions.

First Bank failure

Country and Bank name

First Bank Bailout/Bailin

Country and Bank name

Anyone up for being a smug git and the future and getting lucky with the right country and bank.

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UK Nationwide, because I just moved a bunch of money back into it from my overseas accounts.

Sods law and all that.

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Isn't deutsche bank generally accepted to be the worst off one?

It's all a bit scary now isn't it for those of us with many years of savings in the bank. Kinda feels like anything cold happen.

I'm getting so unsettled by it all I'll maybe buy a house - but then if I did I'd have to stop posting here.

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Well for an easy win I would go for an Italian bank no one had ever heard of, but that is too easy.

I will get go for a dark horse:

Credit Agricole (France)

We used to hear a lot of bad stuff about this bank in 2012-2013, then it all went quiet. Find it hard to believe all those problems got fixed

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North Bank - Arsenal, London UK

East Bank - West Virginia, USA

South Bank - Middlesbrough UK

West Bank - Isreal

XYY

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It seems that the stresses in the global economy are now threatening the banking system once more so for a bit of fun which smug HPC will perhaps guess lucky and pick the right country and bank which blows first.

The questions itself can have many different answers so I think we should be looking for an answer to the two following questions.

First Bank failure

Country and Bank name

First Bank Bailout/Bailin

Country and Bank name

Anyone up for being a smug git and the future and getting lucky with the right country and bank.

Italy.

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Isn't deutsche bank generally accepted to be the worst off one?

it is, but germany is running a pretty large surplus, and has several thousand tonnes of gold backing it up.They can probably just about survive but will be much humbled.

italy is just a mess.

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It's all a bit scary now isn't it for those of us with many years of savings in the bank. Kinda feels like anything cold happen.

This is why I've been paying down debts, buying useful stuff that will last a few years, and making improvements to the house. I'd rather spend my money than lose it because of some ******ing bankers.

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I'll go for "God's Bank" and related Italian banks like Monte Paschi.

I agree, I was about to say 'Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena' too.

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Of the major banks, Deutsche looks like the shakiest. The German government has enough money to bail them out though so an actual collapse is very unlikely.

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Not sure why it's a two part question... surely any bank that fails will be absolutely guaranteed a bail in/out.

This isn't like the good old days when failed banks were just allowed to go bust... we're now in a brave new world of neoliberalism.

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Isn't deutsche bank generally accepted to be the worst off one?

It's all a bit scary now isn't it for those of us with many years of savings in the bank. Kinda feels like anything cold happen.

I'm getting so unsettled by it all I'll maybe buy a house - but then if I did I'd have to stop posting here.

I bought a house in 2010 and I'm still here. It's fine as long as you don't view economics like a football match where you have to pick and cheer on a side based on what's in your vested interest.

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I was hearing from some friends in Italy that the bank run on Monte Pasci is in full swing, people are transferring their balances to other banks via online banking and are withdrawing cash, it looks like next week things will precipitate... :ph34r:

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The German government has enough money to bail them out though

No they don't, Deutsche Bank has a balance sheet that's 10 times the German GDP...

But I read that allegedly the Chinese have already come to the rescue of Deutsche Bank so if that's true then DB is safe for now.

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No they don't, Deutsche Bank has a balance sheet that's 10 times the German GDP...

But I read that allegedly the Chinese have already come to the rescue of Deutsche Bank so if that's true then DB is safe for now.

Those Chinese really a lovely bunch of altruistic lads.

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No they don't, Deutsche Bank has a balance sheet that's 10 times the German GDP...

But I read that allegedly the Chinese have already come to the rescue of Deutsche Bank so if that's true then DB is safe for now.

If you go with the irrational belief that the asset side of the balance sheet is entirely worthless, then yes. The reality is that most of the assets are good and that, as with RBS, the government would need to inject a small percentage of the total as equity to keep the thing afloat. The German government could easily raise 100B Euros if it needed to although it's worth noting that, unlike the UK, they would actually have to sell bonds to do that rather than just instruct the central bank to create the money from nowhere.

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A few Italian ones ones, followed by a few German Landes bank.

Just pick any - for both countries - as far as I can tell they are all fcked.

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If you go with the irrational belief that the asset side of the balance sheet is entirely worthless, then yes. The reality is that most of the assets are good and that, as with RBS, the government would need to inject a small percentage of the total as equity to keep the thing afloat. The German government could easily raise 100B Euros if it needed to although it's worth noting that, unlike the UK, they would actually have to sell bonds to do that rather than just instruct the central bank to create the money from nowhere.

Hard to tell.

I think there's a clear idea of the level of non-performing loans in Italian banks - theyve been fcked for so long the books are pretty well examined.

DB is a harder prospect. Until 2007ish, it all looked great. Sicne 2007, it all looks worse.

Since Jan of this years its all started to look even worserer.

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