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Brexit Bounce-Back Begins


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HOLA441
GB - this is one of the flaws of the fortress EU....we've exported much of the pollution and cheap labour to China under the other macro change....'globalisation'.

That's always one of things I like to bring up when people tell me that things are much better today because we've pretty much got rid of harsh Victorian factory working conditions. No we haven't, we've just outsourced them.

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HOLA442

Good post GB.

I recognise it is a visceral "someone stole my cheese" that led many to vote the way they did. However, it doesn't disguise all the reasons why I voted Leave: namely an unanswerable and corrupt bureaucracy leveraging its central bank to bring democracies to heel. The lack of a functioning 'demos' at the European level - everyone in that 'government' is your enemy by definition. (you hope your own government even if misguided, still think they have the country's interests at heart - no such thing at European level).

Lastly, the die was cast when Blair/Brown vetoed joining the Euro and created the circumstances for being out voted by the Euro bloc to tap our pockets.

In fact, the die may even have been cast as far back as the original 'lie' to the British people...that we were joining a 'free trade area' not creating a European country which we signed up to on accession. People with long memories frankly feel lied to and have waited an awful long time to reverse their votes.

Practically the first thing Blair did was the 1998 Bank Act which made the Bank of England independent. Cue housing bubble and taxpayer bailouts for bankers whenever necessary.

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HOLA443

That's always one of things I like to bring up when people tell me that things are much better today because we've pretty much got rid of harsh Victorian factory working conditions. No we haven't, we've just outsourced them.

Oh well, China is outsourcing that work to robots now anyway mate.

If the UK had less regulation and Eu red tape it might be able to bring much of this highly automated modern manufacturing stuff back.

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HOLA444

Oh well, China is outsourcing that work to robots now anyway mate.

If the UK had less regulation and Eu red tape it might be able to bring much of this highly automated modern manufacturing stuff back.

Or it'll go to the next country that offers lots of dirt-cheap labour instead of expensive robots.

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HOLA445
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HOLA447

When Carney cuts the rate I suspect Osb' will be out with something for the builders. No evidence just going on what happened last time.

I've just seen him on TV, at Wimbledon, watching Murray vs Berdych.

Merv enjoyed Wimbledon too of course. Big smiles there in the so called financial crisis / austerity early years, as I remember it, before austerity boom HPI.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/7513563.stm

http://thefinanser.com/2009/07/new-balls-please-governor.html/

House Prices 18 July 2008: Believe it or not, they're still going up in places and still higher than a year ago almost everywhere.
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HOLA448

Practically the first thing Blair did was the 1998 Bank Act which made the Bank of England independent. Cue housing bubble and taxpayer bailouts for bankers whenever necessary.

Indeed he did that soon after the 1997 general election to tie up the legal loose ends. It's likely that the drafting of the Act began during the Conservative's time in office.

It was announced that the BoE was being given independence 4 days after the 1 May1997 general election - the BoE had been given effective control of interest rates by the Conservatives since the early 90s and by 1997 the BoE was regarded as having done a good enough job to be granted the full independence. The BoE's demonstration on how to completely mess things up hadn't yet happened.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/may/6/newsid_3806000/3806313.stm

1997: Brown sets Bank of England free

The Chancellor, Gordon Brown, has given the Bank of England independence from political control.

His surprise announcement - coming only four days after Labour's landslide election win - is being described as the most radical shake-up in the bank's 300-year history.

Just saying - because whoever won that general election it was likely that the BoE would have been given "independence" pretty soon afterwards.

It's feature of the LibLabCon that every apparent policy initiative by any of the LibLabCon affiliate parties is flagged as an amazing surprise and special to that particular affiliate party when in fact it's been planned to be introduced all along no matter who gains power.

People can judge for themselves how independent from political control the BoE actually is from Carney's biased pro Remain outpourings before the eu referendum.

Edited by billybong
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HOLA449

I've just seen him on TV, at Wimbledon, watching Murray vs Berdych.

Merv enjoyed Wimbledon too of course. Big smiles there in the so called financial crisis / austerity early years, as I remember it, before austerity boom HPI.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/7513563.stm

http://thefinanser.com/2009/07/new-balls-please-governor.html/

Yes, I found all that quite unsettling. Hiding in plain sight, the serf/master relationship with all those stuck on a nearby heap of dirt watching it on big screens. Life is pretty good for some.

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HOLA4410

We need to move on. We need to accept the Brexit vote and we need to look at the root causes of division and discontent. Then we need to look to alleviate those discontents and heal those divisions in light of the need to answer the Brexit vote by leaving the European Union. Are either Theresa May or Angela Leadsom up to that task?

Mostly agree with you. Unfortunately leaving the EU won't bring a reconcilation. A half of the UK don't want it and by doing you are creating an even bigger rift in the society especially if you take into account that the younger generation is against it. The UK needs a grown up discussion about its future as the current model is not working. A histeric guesture like the Brexit is not a solution, it is more like a self-mutilation of a person crying for a help.

The problem is not the EU, it is a model where the UK has become a giant leveraged hedge fund to generate capital flows offsetting lost manufacturing. In this system money were supposed be redistributed to poorer people through social welfare and the "trickle down" effect. It is clear this model doesn't work as it requires much higher taxes to balance the books. It also erodes the society, creating a class of people dependent on the state and not contributing to the country wealth.

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HOLA4411

Arguably the imbalanced UK economy caused Brexit.

...

We need to move on. We need to accept the Brexit vote and we need to look at the root causes of division and discontent. Then we need to look to alleviate those discontents and heal those divisions in light of the need to answer the Brexit vote by leaving the European Union. Are either Theresa May or Angela Leadsom up to that task?

...

+1

Blue leadership bun-fight and red devilment is propagating those divisions. The distinct lack of first aid from the Palace of Westminster appears incompetent; unless there is another plan...?

Mostly agree with you. Unfortunately leaving the EU won't bring a reconcilation. A half of the UK don't want it and by doing you are creating an even bigger rift in the society especially if you take into account that the younger generation is against it. The UK needs a grown up discussion about its future as the current model is not working. A histeric guesture like the Brexit is not a solution, it is more like a self-mutilation of a person crying for a help.

The problem is not the EU, it is a model where the UK has become a giant leveraged hedge fund to generate capital flows offsetting lost manufacturing. In this system money were supposed be redistributed to poorer people through social welfare and the "trickle down" effect. It is clear this model doesn't work as it requires much higher taxes to balance the books. It also erodes the society, creating a class of people dependent on the state and not contributing to the country wealth.

Reconciliation was GB's point AIUI. If we had stayed in 'half' the UK didn't want it.

Younger generation is against it? You mean of those that voted and then what the pollsters said about that age range?

Agree on a grown up, informed discussion.

'The problem is not the EU, ...' succinctly proves the need for leadership and measured discourse!

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HOLA4412

+1

Blue leadership bun-fight and red devilment is propagating those divisions. The distinct lack of first aid from the Palace of Westminster appears incompetent; unless there is another plan...?

That`s the problem ,from where i`m sitting it`s just the same old promises of jam tomorrow from team blue £100bn social housing fund from Crab ,May waffling on about not forgetting certain parts of society

At least they now know there`s real problems,whether they address those problems is a different matter ,as for team red they will be arguing amongst themselves until the lid is about to be placed on the coffin

One thing is for sure if neither team sorts it out in the next few years the political map will change dramatically come the next GE whether that`s a good thing i have not got a clue.

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HOLA4413

+1

Blue leadership bun-fight and red devilment is propagating those divisions. The distinct lack of first aid from the Palace of Westminster appears incompetent; unless there is another plan...?

Reconciliation was GB's point AIUI. If we had stayed in 'half' the UK didn't want it.

Younger generation is against it? You mean of those that voted and then what the pollsters said about that age range?

Agree on a grown up, informed discussion.

'The problem is not the EU, ...' succinctly proves the need for leadership and measured discourse!

Some Leavers are not really against the EU, it is just a protest vote. The percentage of people not accepting the EU could be then lower than the pro EU camp. However that doesn't change the situation that there is a significant group of voters that don't want to live in the EU. The demographic changes are likely to reduce this group with time, so the problem will probably go away at some point in the future. Meantime there is a need to find a solution, neither staying nor leaving will fix the problem, there is going to be more resentment.

Yes the poll results are clear, over 70% of 24 years and younger are pro EU. That is the fact. Are you suggesting that these results are fake?

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HOLA4414

Some Leavers are not really against the EU, it is just a protest vote. The percentage of people not accepting the EU could be then lower than the pro EU camp. However that doesn't change the situation that there is a significant group of voters that don't want to live in the EU. The demographic changes are likely to reduce this group with time, so the problem will probably go away at some point in the future. Meantime there is a need to find a solution, neither staying nor leaving will fix the problem, there is going to be more resentment.

Yes the poll results are clear, over 70% of 24 years and younger are pro EU. That is the fact. Are you suggesting that these results are fake?

Not quite fact is it 70% of the 36% that got off their @rses and voted is not the same as 70% of 24 years and younger

One could argue only 25% of 24 years or younger wanted to stay in the EU

Edited by long time lurking
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HOLA4415

Not quite fact is it 70% of the 36% that got off their @rses and voted is not the same as 70% of 24 years and younger

One could argue only 25% of 24 years or younger wanted to stay in the EU

Around 60% young people voted.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36737374

http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/sites/ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/files/vi_28_06_2016_v2.pdf

Edited by slawek
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HOLA4416
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HOLA4417

18 -24 year olds were your claim to be fact not younger people

Poll reveals young remain voters reduced to tears by Brexit result ...
www.theguardian.com › Politics › EU referendum
7 days ago - Brexit live: thousands 'march for Europe' in post-referendum protest - as it happened ... More than 70% of people aged 18 to 24 voted to remain in the EU, while among those ... the Electoral Registrar declared that 75% of 18-24 year olds did not even vote. ... They said interest rates would rise - THEY LIED.

From the opium link it`s a poll of 2,006 people...wernt they one of the polls that were saying remain had a 10 point lead ? bbc link dont work

FIELD DATES | 28 to 30 June 2016 SAMPLE | 2,006 online interviews with UK adults WEIGHTING | Our sample has been weighted to reflect a nationally representative audience

Edited by long time lurking
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HOLA4418

18 -24 year olds were your claim to be fact not younger people

From the opium link it`s a poll of 2,006 people...wernt they one of the polls that were saying remain had a 10 point lead ? bbc link dont work

Sorry for the BBC link, it should be fixed now, removed the trailing space.

From the Guardian article you sent
“After correcting for over-reporting [people always say they vote more than they do], we found that the likely turnout of 18- to 24-year-olds was 70% – just 2.5% below the national average – and 67% for 25- to 29-year-olds."
"the Electoral Registrar declared that 75% of 18-24 year olds did not even vote" was claimed by a random guy in comments without quoting any source, zero credibility. Do you have a link to any official data?
I am not aware about any official data about age distribution myself, there was no exit poll either. The only source are the pollster data. The last Opinium poll was very close, only 1% off from the actual referendum result,
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HOLA4419

There was an exit poll by Ashcroft.

There was this on turnout...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/how-did-turnout-affect-the-eu-referendum-result/

Less likely to vote:

Young v old

Town v country

Lower v upper class

There was no official exit poll, the result would have been announced after the polling station closed. Ashcroft poll is an online poll on the referendum day, not exactly the exit poll. It also shows that 73% of 18-24 voted for staying.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

The telegraph link is an analysis of the correlation between referendum results/turnout with demographic data of voting areas.

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HOLA4420

There was no official exit poll, the result would have been announced after the polling station closed. Ashcroft poll is an online poll on the referendum day, not exactly the exit poll. It also shows that 73% of 18-24 voted for staying.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

The telegraph link is an analysis of the correlation between referendum results/turnout with demographic data of voting areas.

Either way you loose. If they did all vote then they were fairly represented in the final outcome and if they didn't then they don't care so they don't count.

What's your problem?

Do you want double votes for the young? Triple votes for the rich? What if your young and rich (6 votes)? Or old and poor (0 vote)?

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HOLA4421
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HOLA4422
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HOLA4423

Either way you loose. If they did all vote then they were fairly represented in the final outcome and if they didn't then they don't care so they don't count.

What's your problem?

Do you want double votes for the young? Triple votes for the rich? What if your young and rich (6 votes)? Or old and poor (0 vote)?

Don't be such a drama queen. I have just presented arguments that your claim about 36% turnout among young voters was incorrect.

The young generation is the future of the UK and they will do what they like when their time comes.

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HOLA4424

2000 people... f**k off. or 6.8% of 2000 people or 136 people in Londonstan.

That is how the statistics works, you don't need to ask all people to get a result if you are happy to accept some error of the result.

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HOLA4425

Don't be such a drama queen. I have just presented arguments that your claim about 36% turnout among young voters was incorrect.

The young generation is the future of the UK and they will do what they like when their time comes.

Of course they will, that's why I voted for brexit. Doh!

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