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Economic End Game Post Brexit Thread

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It's been alluded to on another thread.

As per ^^^

Will it be a run on the pound? Will a rate rise be required.

What will be the circumstances around a hpc, will it ever happen?

Discuss.

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It's been alluded to on another thread.

As per ^^^

Will it be a run on the pound? Will a rate rise be required.

What will be the circumstances around a hpc, will it ever happen?

Discuss.

S.E. of England apart...house price sin real terms are down about 30-50% all round the UK.

Sadly, wages have been flat since 2007 so a S.E. cntric nominal collapse is on the cards this ought to have a BIG impact on the UK as a whole.

The SE mega bubble should never have been allowed but the tories wanted to win an election....IMHO

Life is always more complex than people think

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Without radical changes, the UK will limp along as it is now in its chronically limited way. Since Carney and Osborne and the government as a whole are utterly incapable of carrying out any radical changes, well....it's carry on as you are.

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I'm not sure we should be looking at it as an 'end game' at all. I've been trying to think of a way to express what the Brexit vote actually means in economic terms.

We, for good or ill, chose the perceived high risk option of exiting the EU. If the perceived risk is higher then we should expect a higher interest rate.

While trying to find a way of achieving more effective innovation within the company I work for I came across the concept of 'creative destruction'. Although I am not a follower of Marx, this article on Wikipedia caught my interest;

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creative_destruction

We are always on the lookout for disruptive technology but there is always a human element to that disruption. Who would have thought radio phones would have gone the way they have and destroying the cheap camera market for instance.

However, perhaps the forces of creative destruction don't directly need to be linked to a disruptive innovation, just to a meme that arose as a side affect. Social mass media clearly affected the Brexit vote colouring people's feelings without logical arguments.

We should dispassionately observe the destruction we have wrought and seek to use its affects to usher in a new creative phase within the UK. Trying to jam the genie back in the bottle is not going to end well and wastes the energy that would be better deployed seeking and backing creativity.

Onwards and upwards.

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Without radical changes, the UK will limp along as it is now in its chronically limited way. Since Carney and Osborne and the government as a whole are utterly incapable of carrying out any radical changes, well....it's carry on as you are.

This is why i am considering giving up on any sort of HPC and buying.

The fallout from Brexit hasnt and doesnt look like it will make any changes to the systems of political and banking elites.

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This is why i am considering giving up on any sort of HPC and buying.

The fallout from Brexit hasnt and doesnt look like it will make any changes to the systems of political and banking elites.

Agreed. The elites aren't going to willingly let it go. They'll do all they can and more to stave off a big recession and try to keep the UK up in the global rankings. They may not be able to keep it going forever though, maybe a year, maybe ten, maybe fifteen.Eventually they will lose control but the UK would be unlikely to go down without dragging a few other countries with it.

As Spunko says we need to wait a bit longer to see where it goes but I have a feeling living standards are permanently damaged in this country.

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Don't be mad it's finally happening.

This is why i am considering giving up on any sort of HPC and buying.

The fallout from Brexit hasnt and doesnt look like it will make any changes to the systems of political and banking elites.

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I'm sticking to my original prediction that it'll unwind like any sort of central planning with the soviet system being the classic example and the terminal state being a stagnant semi-feudal oligarchy or chaos stricken battlefield. It's worth reviewing at times like this and whilst the UK may now have significantly more risks to the downside I don't think much has changed in the west and the east is a bit of a closed book to me but I'm sure it's getting noticed there too. I would add that any radical change is far more likely to come non-violently from the east than the west as they have in their living memory the motivation whereas all we have is a lot of dispossed who don't know to blame the house price rises they love far more than themselves, which is far far more than they love others. Generational shift is probably the next obvious marker .. but who knows what life will bring.

Against this backdrop an HPC is a little irrelevant although do a take a moment to reflect on the value of a non-divisable, non-exchangable, non-mutable, immensely overvalued asset and then try not to punch the next person who says they're buying one for "security." I can't really go outside very much anymore .. as I don't know whether to shift from rhetorical to violent abuse of people. I hate to say it as it's one of those scary lines to step over - but it would actually be for their own good. The only thing that stops me is I know it's not actually possible to talk sense in to anybody .. unless it's not in their personal interest to have sense talked in to them. I worked in the city for 7 years, I made my clients billions of dollars, I never ******ed up even once, I accurately anticipated and maneuvered around 2008. So obviously .. they all think I'm lying cheating stupid son of a bitch that doesn't like house prices. You'll have to forgive me if I refuse to agree even if I have to refuse to give you details because I like being left alone with my massive drug habits. And if you have to ask why I have them .. well ... that's more stupid than my average client.

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I'm sticking to my original prediction that it'll unwind like any sort of central planning with the soviet system being the classic example and the terminal state being a stagnant semi-feudal oligarchy or chaos stricken battlefield. It's worth reviewing at times like this and whilst the UK may now have significantly more risks to the downside I don't think much has changed in the west and the east is a bit of a closed book to me but I'm sure it's getting noticed there too. I would add that any radical change is far more likely to come non-violently from the east than the west as they have in their living memory the motivation whereas all we have is a lot of dispossed who don't know to blame the house price rises they love far more than themselves, which is far far more than they love others. Generational shift is probably the next obvious marker .. but who knows what life will bring.

Against this backdrop an HPC is a little irrelevant although do a take a moment to reflect on the value of a non-divisable, non-exchangable, non-mutable, immensely overvalued asset and then try not to punch the next person who says they're buying one for "security." I can't really go outside very much anymore .. as I don't know whether to shift from rhetorical to violent abuse of people. I hate to say it as it's one of those scary lines to step over - but it would actually be for their own good. The only thing that stops me is I know it's not actually possible to talk sense in to anybody .. unless it's not in their personal interest to have sense talked in to them. I worked in the city for 7 years, I made my clients billions of dollars, I never ******ed up even once, I accurately anticipated and maneuvered around 2008. So obviously .. they all think I'm lying cheating stupid son of a bitch that doesn't like house prices. You'll have to forgive me if I refuse to agree even if I have to refuse to give you details because I like being left alone with my massive drug habits. And if you have to ask why I have them .. well ... that's more stupid than my average client.

The reactions of the remainiacs, especially the young, has cemented my fears that we have a generation - or two - of totalitarian leftists who will happily crack heads and burn houses to get what they feel 'they' deserve.

I can understand now how the communist nightmares of russia and china happened.

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The reactions of the remainiacs, especially the young, has cemented my fears that we have a generation - or two - of totalitarian leftists who will happily crack heads and burn houses to get what they feel 'they' deserve.

I can understand now how the communist nightmares of russia and china happened.

It's easy to have a pop at young people, but their sense of entitlement only comes from seeing what their parents have. When you have worse prospects than your parents, of course they're going to feel ripped off.

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It's easy to have a pop at young people, but their sense of entitlement only comes from seeing what their parents have. When you have worse prospects than your parents, of course they're going to feel ripped off.

The problem is imho the root causes - financialisation, idiotic economic theories, inept actuaries, short termist politics, global abitrage and good old naked greed etc etc are never discussed or reflected upon in our mainstream world.

I don't have any expectations or entitlement because I've at least made an attempt to understand what's been going on. The only sense of entitlement I guess I have is that I value my time at what is a pretty high pound value in accordance to these conditions and adjust how I work accordingly.

Most people don't do this so it then becomes much easier to look to blame nebulous boomers, immigrants, benefit lifers etc. To me, I assess the individual.

In the skewed view of the world I now operate operate like this. I'll help anyone who has nothing for free. If you have a lot that I assess you didn't earn properly and want a favour, I'll charge you the earth for my time. This sends the message about redistribution and fairness and the whole concept of what a society should be like in my mind bit by bit.

My brain is getting more and more warped now by what is going on, but in a good way.

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The problem is imho the root causes - financialisation, idiotic economic theories, inept actuaries, short termist politics, global abitrage and good old naked greed etc etc are never discussed or reflected upon in our mainstream world.

There is obviously a big dollop of luck involved in it as well.

If you were in your 20's during 1914, there's a good chance you would be dead. Been in your 20's just 10 years later, and you would have enjoyed Britain booming during the period of the Roaring 20's. Same goes for more modern times. If you were in your 20's during 1996, you had 20 years of almost uninterrupted economic growth ahead of you. Being in your 20's during 2006, you have economic misery ahead of you.

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If DB goes down surely the German Government will backstop them with the taxpayer guarantee RBS style....

Or am I missing something here??

The share price graph was from feb 16. It's down circa a further 30% since then

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The share price graph was from feb 16. It's down circa a further 30% since then

RBS went the same way.... Until all of a sudden it was insolvent... Darling and Brown stepped in and all was ok again, albeit a massive loss for the taxpayer.

As it is the future of the Euro at stake here is seems incredible to assume the German Government would stand idly by and allow it to go under the bus.

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If DB goes down surely the German Government will backstop them with the taxpayer guarantee RBS style....

Or am I missing something here??

DBs exposure to the derivatives market is some $75 trillion.. or about 8 times the size of the entire EU GDP...

Gonna be tough to write a valid cheque to bail that sucker out...

You know the episode of The Simpsons where Monty Burns suggests printing a trillion dollar note to clear the USA's debts... not looking so crazy now is it!

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DBs exposure to the derivatives market is some $75 trillion.. or about 8 times the size of the entire EU GDP...

Gonna be tough to write a valid cheque to bail that sucker out...

You know the episode of The Simpsons where Monty Burns suggests printing a trillion dollar note to clear the USA's debts... not looking so crazy now is it!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trillion_dollar_coin

The idea was floated in reality by the US not 5 years ago. I sh*t you not....The trillion dollar platinum coin.

It just goes to show what farcical times we live in!

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DBs exposure to the derivatives market is some $75 trillion.. or about 8 times the size of the entire EU GDP...

Gonna be tough to write a valid cheque to bail that sucker out...

You know the episode of The Simpsons where Monty Burns suggests printing a trillion dollar note to clear the USA's debts... not looking so crazy now is it!

Derivatives are only triggered if there is a credit event.

If the German Government prop DB up then no credit event....

Do the Euro rules allow Governments to prop banks up, I suppose they must do seeing as we did it...

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It's easy to have a pop at young people, but their sense of entitlement only comes from seeing what their parents have. When you have worse prospects than your parents, of course they're going to feel ripped off.

Having a pop at the young (and then when it suits people trying to incite them against boomers) runs the risk of making us look like a sad bunch of gen-x losers - who would have probably reacted behaved the same way as the millennials do 25 odd years ago.

Only history will tell if brexit was the right thing to do or not. However, it is often said that with "the elite" it's heads they win, tails you lose. It most likely won't make a slight bit of difference to "the elite", much like after the fall of the Soviet Union it was the elite (apart from perhaps a few sacrificial lambs) that prospered.

If people want rid of "the elite" it'll take a revolution and who knows who'll the winners will see as "the elite". If I was living on a minimum wage job, living in poor quality accommodation, trying to pay off a cruddy credit card I might just view people with their nice investments and thousands in the bank or in gold as the elite. If I had a large mortgage that I could only just pay every month I might just view people who were relishing the prospect of a HPC so as to "profit" from it as the elite.

Sadly sometimes I can't help but feel that I see too much naïve cynicism on HPC (I'm probably guilty of it myself) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Na%C3%AFve_cynicism

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The global financial system is just a giant ponzi scheme that should have collapsed in 2008 but the global elites persuaded governments around the world to bail out the failing banking system, with austerity imposed on the masses to pay for it.

They preach capitalism yet when the banksters run into trouble they are bailed out by Government, showing total hypocrisy and avoiding the rules they impose on others.

However all the bailouts did was delay the inevitable. The (mainly western) world is drowning in unpayable debts as Greece know to their cost. The system will eventually fall like a house of cards. I thought Greece would be the trigger but now it could well be Brexit (although the Italian banking system is on the verge of collapse and Deutsche Bank has been rated the biggest threat to the financial system by the IMF.)

With this in mind will the millions of working class Brexit voters become the fall guys, blamed for any collapse and castigated for the crimes of the financial elites who flooded the world with toxic debts?

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If DB are declared insolvent in need of solvency, then there will be a bail-in, not a bail-out and those derivatives are supposed to net out. i.e. it's a zero-sum game.

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If DB are declared insolvent in need of solvency, then there will be a bail-in, not a bail-out and those derivatives are supposed to net out. i.e. it's a zero-sum game.

It only nets out if every party can pay their bill.... Somehow (as was shown when Lehman went down) not everyone can...

Edited by eek

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