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University Bubble Making Hissing Sounds


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7 minutes ago, Option5 said:

My lad left his expensive school 4 years ago with good A-levels but came to the same conclusion. Spent 3 years trying various things and has now settled on welding. His logic, "nobody makes or repairs things any more, when it all comes crashing down they'll need people who can keep things going"

They certainly wont need agents/middlemen who take a cut of everything and supposedly "generate wealth".


Fair play to him.  I'd have gone for plumbing myself.

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15 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Heard a bit on the radio about young people going into apprentiships, she said "i'd come out with same qualification but would have a job and no debt, it's a no brainer".

someone's worked it out.

My son is very smart but I tried to talk him out of university for same reason. He went to uni anyway and looking back I am not sure I was actually  right. Jobs that he is going for (IT security) just filter out no-degree people who don't even get an interview.  Still consider the actual university system pointless and is doomed.

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14 minutes ago, Option5 said:

My lad left his expensive school 4 years ago with good A-levels but came to the same conclusion. Spent 3 years trying various things and has now settled on welding. His logic, "nobody makes or repairs things any more, when it all comes crashing down they'll need people who can keep things going"

Smart lad.

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On 20/07/2017 at 9:24 AM, mathschoc said:

"Rising degree grades reflect the improved A-level grades of those entering university and a more focused attention to study"-

complete BU***CKS!

We bomb in PISA tests, there is a big difference in exam papers now to those 30+ years ago, exam boards have incentive to inflate grades as there is competition between boards to have more schools on their books. 

The UK has a fake education system running, there will be no innovation or productivity coming from this facade.

Gove made changes to the GCSE /A Levels so that they are more "rigorous", but Universities can do what they want. ALCAB, the university body that played a part in reforming A Levels has infact dumbed down the content in A Level Maths & Further Maths, a significant amount of material is gone. Rigorous my A*sE

even when I was at uni 97-01 the exams were demonstrably much easier than a few years before. And the year after I finished I saw some courses had had a lot of the more advanced topics removed/dumbed down!

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On 30/07/2017 at 2:19 AM, stormymonday_2011 said:

Annuity rates tell the story

http://www.sharingpensions.co.uk/annuity-rates-chart-latest.htm

Although these ostensibly only apply to Defined Contribution schemes at the end of the day they also reflect the types of returns that funded Defined Benefit schemes like USS can expect. The problem is the pension promises for DB schemes were written when returns on investments on all classes of pension schemes were higher. In fact the same factors apply to all classes of savings. Bailing debtors has taken priority over pricing risk correctly via interest rates and the evidence is there for all to see in those annuity rates for savers.

theres a few issues with the USS valuation though, such as assuming salaries increase with inflation despite every year staff getting below inflation increases. Also how can they assume current reduced returns will last forever? I don't know the URL, but there was a study made by a group of academic statisticians going into all this and explaining the deficit was not even close to what USS claims if (what they deem) more reasonable assumptions are used.

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1 minute ago, MancTom said:

theres a few issues with the USS valuation though, such as assuming salaries increase with inflation despite every year staff getting below inflation increases. Also how can they assume current reduced returns will last forever? I don't know the URL, but there was a study made by a group of academic statisticians going into all this and explaining the deficit was not even close to what USS claims if (what they deem) more reasonable assumptions are used.

oh here it is:

http://southampton.web.ucu.org.uk/2014/10/23/false-assumptions-of-the-uss/

Its from 2014.

 

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1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

They certainly wont need agents/middlemen who take a cut of everything and supposedly "generate wealth".


Fair play to him.  I'd have gone for plumbing myself.

He lives in Norfolk in a rural area, lot's of Land Rovers and farm machinery needing maintenance. Anyway he's not the social type, hard to strike up (sorry:wacko:) a conversation with a man in a welders mask.

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7 hours ago, MancTom said:

Career average makes actual salary increases irrelevant, inflation is what matters. Indeed if salaries are increasing more slowly than inflation then a Career Average scheme will pay out more than Final Salary.

The low bond rates currently available and negative discount rate really don't help, how long these can/will persist is anyone's guess.

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  • 1 month later...

This guy's good at maths

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/09/18/compounding-the-problem/

'It is said to have been Albert Einstein who called compound interest “the eighth wonder of the world”, and at this time of the year when some 400,000 fresh faced students are about to set off to university for the first time, they and their parents would be well advised to study what he meant.

Thanks to the application of compound interest to their student loans, this year’s new students will be faced with truly awesome debts, of a size which few of them have troubled to contemplate.

With maximum fees of £9250 per annum being applied by many universities, and a living allowance of £4193, on graduating after three years, including interest will already owe £45452. Those on four year courses (such an engineering and modern languages), and those studying in London will owe more.

If they are then lucky enough to get a job earning £31,000 per annum (more than the typical starting salary) repayments of £900 will be made in the first year, but interest of £2772 will have been charged and their debt will have grown by a further £1872. A real high flier with a salary of £41,000 will repay £1800 per annum (or £54,000 over the next thirty years) without having made any dent in their debt.

In fact you will have to be earning £51,800 per annum just to be covering the interest each year and stopping the debt getting even larger, and at that income, your total repayments (in other words what you will have paid to go to university) will be £83,160.

At the other end of the scale, those whose income never exceeds the repayment threshold of £21,000 per annum will accumulate debts of £279,455 over the thirty year course of the loan, and quite who will then be responsible for this debt is unclear, although one way or another it will eventually fall on the taxpayer.

Of course those who after graduating engage in further study, perhaps a masters degree and then a PhD may emerge from education with much larger debts, typically around £100,000. Suppose someone then pursues a career in academic science, where starting salaries for junior researchers are often quite low, even for those with higher degrees; if their salary remained under the £21,000 repayment threshold for ten years, they would owe £279,000. If they then obtained a really high flying job, the repayments might be large, but so would the interest accumulating each year.

Take an imaginary example of someone in that situation being appointed Vice Chancellor of Reading University on a salary of £261,000 per annum. They would repay £21,000 per annum, but the interest charges would be £17,000, so that their debt would diminish by a mere £4,000. It would be touch and go as to whether even at that salary they would ever repay their full debt, even though they would have repaid some £420,000 .

All of this assumes, that inflation (to which the interest rates are linked) remains at 3.1%. Some of us are old enough to remember interest rates of 10%, but thanks to the impact of compound interest, even a modest rise in inflation will make all of the above figures even more frightening.

In the meantime, I can only suggest to prospective students and their parents that they start refreshing their memory as to how Einstein’s eighth wonder of world is calculated.

Dr Barry Monk

The author is a consultant dermatologist who went to university at a time when all fees and living costs were paid for you.'

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8 hours ago, Sancho Panza said:

This guy's good at maths

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/09/18/compounding-the-problem/

'It is said to have been Albert Einstein who called compound interest “the eighth wonder of the world”, and at this time of the year when some 400,000 fresh faced students are about to set off to university for the first time, they and their parents would be well advised to study what he meant.

Thanks to the application of compound interest to their student loans, this year’s new students will be faced with truly awesome debts, of a size which few of them have troubled to contemplate.

With maximum fees of £9250 per annum being applied by many universities, and a living allowance of £4193, on graduating after three years, including interest will already owe £45452. Those on four year courses (such an engineering and modern languages), and those studying in London will owe more.

If they are then lucky enough to get a job earning £31,000 per annum (more than the typical starting salary) repayments of £900 will be made in the first year, but interest of £2772 will have been charged and their debt will have grown by a further £1872. A real high flier with a salary of £41,000 will repay £1800 per annum (or £54,000 over the next thirty years) without having made any dent in their debt.

In fact you will have to be earning £51,800 per annum just to be covering the interest each year and stopping the debt getting even larger, and at that income, your total repayments (in other words what you will have paid to go to university) will be £83,160.

At the other end of the scale, those whose income never exceeds the repayment threshold of £21,000 per annum will accumulate debts of £279,455 over the thirty year course of the loan, and quite who will then be responsible for this debt is unclear, although one way or another it will eventually fall on the taxpayer.

Of course those who after graduating engage in further study, perhaps a masters degree and then a PhD may emerge from education with much larger debts, typically around £100,000. Suppose someone then pursues a career in academic science, where starting salaries for junior researchers are often quite low, even for those with higher degrees; if their salary remained under the £21,000 repayment threshold for ten years, they would owe £279,000. If they then obtained a really high flying job, the repayments might be large, but so would the interest accumulating each year.

Take an imaginary example of someone in that situation being appointed Vice Chancellor of Reading University on a salary of £261,000 per annum. They would repay £21,000 per annum, but the interest charges would be £17,000, so that their debt would diminish by a mere £4,000. It would be touch and go as to whether even at that salary they would ever repay their full debt, even though they would have repaid some £420,000 .

All of this assumes, that inflation (to which the interest rates are linked) remains at 3.1%. Some of us are old enough to remember interest rates of 10%, but thanks to the impact of compound interest, even a modest rise in inflation will make all of the above figures even more frightening.

In the meantime, I can only suggest to prospective students and their parents that they start refreshing their memory as to how Einstein’s eighth wonder of world is calculated.

Dr Barry Monk

The author is a consultant dermatologist who went to university at a time when all fees and living costs were paid for you.'

The bankers have everyone by the ********

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On 17/08/2017 at 12:05 PM, TheCountOfNowhere said:

They certainly wont need agents/middlemen who take a cut of everything and supposedly "generate wealth".


Fair play to him.  I'd have gone for plumbing myself.

welding fumes are not to be sniffed at, or solder fumes (if you're a plumber), something the office worker doesn't have to worry about. 

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19 minutes ago, Sancho Panza said:

Sky news at Worcester Uni this morning covering student debt which is currently running at £100bn.

Drop out rates are 67% on some course apparently

Can't believe what I'm seeing.

They'll be in trouble with drop our rates like that, not satisfying the paying customer.

We had a visit from the VC last year, basically told us (behind closed doors) to give out more firsts as all other Unis are. of course it could be the end of my career if i was to go public on that...

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4 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

They'll be in trouble with drop our rates like that, not satisfying the paying customer.

We had a visit from the VC last year, basically told us (behind closed doors) to give out more firsts as all other Unis are. of course it could be the end of my career if i was to go public on that...

Having spent most of my working life in the Education sector my default setting for Headteachers/Principals/VC's is SCUM (unless they prove otherwise).  In my experience most Schools and Colleges would work better without them.

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10 hours ago, Sancho Panza said:

This guy's good at maths

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/09/18/compounding-the-problem/

'It is said to have been Albert Einstein who called compound interest “the eighth wonder of the world”, and at this time of the year when some 400,000 fresh faced students are about to set off to university for the first time, they and their parents would be well advised to study what he meant.

Thanks to the application of compound interest to their student loans, this year’s new students will be faced with truly awesome debts, of a size which few of them have troubled to contemplate.

With maximum fees of £9250 per annum being applied by many universities, and a living allowance of £4193, on graduating after three years, including interest will already owe £45452. Those on four year courses (such an engineering and modern languages), and those studying in London will owe more.

If they are then lucky enough to get a job earning £31,000 per annum (more than the typical starting salary) repayments of £900 will be made in the first year, but interest of £2772 will have been charged and their debt will have grown by a further £1872. A real high flier with a salary of £41,000 will repay £1800 per annum (or £54,000 over the next thirty years) without having made any dent in their debt.

In fact you will have to be earning £51,800 per annum just to be covering the interest each year and stopping the debt getting even larger, and at that income, your total repayments (in other words what you will have paid to go to university) will be £83,160.

At the other end of the scale, those whose income never exceeds the repayment threshold of £21,000 per annum will accumulate debts of £279,455 over the thirty year course of the loan, and quite who will then be responsible for this debt is unclear, although one way or another it will eventually fall on the taxpayer.

Of course those who after graduating engage in further study, perhaps a masters degree and then a PhD may emerge from education with much larger debts, typically around £100,000. Suppose someone then pursues a career in academic science, where starting salaries for junior researchers are often quite low, even for those with higher degrees; if their salary remained under the £21,000 repayment threshold for ten years, they would owe £279,000. If they then obtained a really high flying job, the repayments might be large, but so would the interest accumulating each year.

Take an imaginary example of someone in that situation being appointed Vice Chancellor of Reading University on a salary of £261,000 per annum. They would repay £21,000 per annum, but the interest charges would be £17,000, so that their debt would diminish by a mere £4,000. It would be touch and go as to whether even at that salary they would ever repay their full debt, even though they would have repaid some £420,000 .

All of this assumes, that inflation (to which the interest rates are linked) remains at 3.1%. Some of us are old enough to remember interest rates of 10%, but thanks to the impact of compound interest, even a modest rise in inflation will make all of the above figures even more frightening.

In the meantime, I can only suggest to prospective students and their parents that they start refreshing their memory as to how Einstein’s eighth wonder of world is calculated.

Dr Barry Monk

The author is a consultant dermatologist who went to university at a time when all fees and living costs were paid for you.'

All unsurprising but of course very few should ever aim to repay the loan - it is just a graduate tax really and heaven knows how the accountants deal with the unpaid loans maturing - I think that should start in ernest from 2028 on as the fees started in 1998.

 

Here in my part of NI where we have a huge percentage of people who go to Uni the penny has dropped that you just move to the ROI - about 20min drive away, work there and avoid this Tax. 

The SLC write to your mum or whatever but so what, debt gets written of in due course then anyway.

 

 

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1 hour ago, pmgdawau said:

welding fumes are not to be sniffed at, or solder fumes (if you're a plumber), something the office worker doesn't have to worry about. 

And yet they still moan about carpal tunnel syndrome, bad backs, eye strain, headaches...

Spend a day on the tools then tell me about RSI 

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39 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

They'll be in trouble with drop our rates like that, not satisfying the paying customer.

We had a visit from the VC last year, basically told us (behind closed doors) to give out more firsts as all other Unis are. of course it could be the end of my career if i was to go public on that...

As ever DM,thanks for chipping in.Always fascintaing to hear from the inside.What an incredible indictment of the system.

I'm just stunned this is a day long feature on Sky News.

They're even discusing doing apprenticeships instead of a degree...

Featured as 67% drop out rates...Entrpreneurship  at Wrexham Uni...........there's more.

At least these kids are aking up after a year and not incurring any more debt.

 

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12 minutes ago, thedarknorth said:

All unsurprising but of course very few should ever aim to repay the loan - it is just a graduate tax really and heaven knows how the accountants deal with the unpaid loans maturing - I think that should start in ernest from 2028 on as the fees started in 1998.

 

Here in my part of NI where we have a huge percentage of people who go to Uni the penny has dropped that you just move to the ROI - about 20min drive away, work there and avoid this Tax. 

The SLC write to your mum or whatever but so what, debt gets written of in due course then anyway.

 

 

The thing is that the T+C's can be varied I suspect.The current tranches being sold to third parties are being sold for pennies in the pound.They've only got to recoup a small per centage to make the purchase pay.

Quite why noone is saying that we shouldn't need degrees to be nurses I don't know.Same with so many jobs,you jsut don't need a degree.Let alone the debt.

Also,worth noting that many are saying they'll never pay it back,which is great if you never want to earn more than £21k

Edited by Sancho Panza
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Just now, Sancho Panza said:

 

Quite why noone is saying that we shouldn't need degrees to be nurses I don't know.Same with so many jobs,you jsut don't need a degree.Let alone the debt.

Student nurses are definitely one of  the groups most damaged by B.B.C (Blair Brown Cameron).  A friend of mine was a student nurse in the 90s got a bursary in 91 of £5k and had to pay £44 pcm (not per week) rent for central London - compare to today and weep (to be fair most of the damage was done by BB).

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41 minutes ago, winkie said:

The big problem is the £21k starting salary to start paying should be increased with inflation.....it is this that will sting debt laden grads most.....why nobody talking about this?;)

Real wages struggling to keep up.

Also,highly qualified EU nationals are in the market for the grad jobs as well.Mrs P is from South Africa,so just stating that the amount of graduate jobs isn't enough for all the people who need them to pay a loan.

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On 7/15/2017 at 9:19 PM, thisisthisitmaybe said:

The problem is grade inflation is making a lot of employers weary of degrees in the first place. We look at CVs at work, everybody has a 2.1 or a first from a Russell Group university. Everybody. Even Oxford gives out 3 times as many firsts as it did 25 years ago. 

So harder to get degrees could be a good thing.

We've started employing people at 18/19 now, which would have been unheard of five years ago. And other companies are increasing apprenticeships to try and get the top students fresh out of school rather than university. I think that could be transformative and end the higher ed cartel where people need to attend university just to get an entry-level job.

In terms of economising, I think universities should have started doing that after the financial crash, rather than going on a massive spending spree. It may be too late for some of them now. It's a shame as many academics are mid career and it isn't an easy profession to transfer out of.

I do a lot of recruiting, both at the graddy level and "experienced hire" - people with a few years experience in the industry (technology).  

The filters for me are fairly simple.    If a candidate has done a moderately technical degree (pure science, engineering, comp Sci, maths etc) at a decent institution, they are either clever enough to do the job, or dedicated enough to do the job.     Either way, they get an interview.    This is where most of them fall down - basic interview skills.   I've even had one who took a call in the middle of an interview.     

Experienced hire is more interesting.   I don't even read as far as the education section in the CV.    I look at what they have done for the last 5 years and see if that is relevant to what we do.   If it is, they get an interview.   At the interview, I hand them a pen and tell them to explain what they've been doing on a whiteboard.  No trick questions, get them talking about something they have done.  Then I give then the hard technical questions that separates the people who have actually done it, from the people who have watched someone else do it.     We have a great hit rate with experienced hire - most are still with us years after being hired. 

My advice would be - if you're going to do a decent degree at a decent location, it is probably worth it, especially if you are interested in the subject.     Anything else, forget it.   

I also do a lot with recruitment consultants.    To a man (they are all blokes) they bemoan the attitude out there today.    They work on a graduate position - a decent one, say 24 - 34K starting.    They get people to apply.  Loads of applications.   They follow up to ask questions and arrange interviews - no answer from about 75% of them.   One said to me yesterday "if I send them two emails and call them twice, I'm done".    It all seems very odd.    Basic life skills seem to be missing - this is more important than qualification.  

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1 hour ago, debtlessmanc said:

They'll be in trouble with drop our rates like that, not satisfying the paying customer.

We had a visit from the VC last year, basically told us (behind closed doors) to give out more firsts as all other Unis are. of course it could be the end of my career if i was to go public on that...

Well shame on you and your colleagues.

There is a quote from the King of Hanover that fits this well.

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I've got a step daughter now graduated who managed to give herself a nervous breakdown, quite common apparently. One of the things she's depressed about is the amount of debt she has accumulated for a qualification she doesn't need. It's interesting, because her degree was a waste of time, but I couldn't persuade her when she enrolled. I begrudge the student debt, the whole scam was voted for by people who themselves were given a free university education. Either its free for all, or we all pay. All that's happened is that University heads have been paying themselves more money, and lots of people who don't need degrees have been getting degrees.

 

As for recruitment - 4 years into my career I contacted one of the "big 6" Consultancies about a career with them, having by that point had a really good run in industry and consulting already (I was advised by a senior pier that I should make that move next). Conversation went like this -

"Hello, I'd like to enquire about a career in your company".

"Did you get a first in your degree?"

"No"

"Then we're not interested, goodbye"

The disease of education and its alleged value is rife in the system. Despite my obvious “failings” I’ve advised some of the largest and most successful companies in the world. In my experience the consultants from that same company who wanted me to have a 'first' have left a trail of industrial destruction in their wake.

One of the other “big 6” companies once took an interest in recruiting me for a fairly senior position. We both qualified out at the same time, my reason being I didn’t want  to give up my independence, their reason being “he’s the sort of guy who will go into a company and fix their problems, we need somebody who will make them worse”.

 

 

I want my children to become welders, plumbers, practical engineers - this is my hobby area, people now bring me things to repair because they cannot find craftsmen who can do these jobs.

Edited by wsn03
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