For All Those Who Portended A High Street Crash

[dogbox]

Guys, not gloating here but do you recall my many posts in reply to the threads that predicted dire times for Britains high streets?

I kept repeating this argument; - "its the same every year on the run - up to Xmas, yet miraculously the great British shopper comes good in the end"

As usual the bears told me I was short - sighted. As usual the perma - bears forgot to check what happened in past years.

I note in todays press the CBI are reporting the return of the consumer just as I predicted.

I made this same argument last Xmas and was shouted down.

Ah, its great being me, no pie - charts or graphs cluttering my desk, just good 'ole' common sense

Merry Xmas happy shoppers

[El_Pirata]

yes but what prices are the consumers paying? What margins are the shops making?

You may be right, but I'll reserve judgement until I see some profits figures in the New Year.

[AteMoose]

Egh... Last xmas the retailers struggled

[Converted Lurker]

Guys, not gloating here but do you recall my many posts in reply to the threads that predicted dire times for Britains high streets?

I kept repeating this argument; - "its the same every year on the run - up to Xmas, yet miraculously the great British shopper comes good in the end"

As usual the bears told me I was short - sighted. As usual the perma - bears forgot to check what happened in past years.

I note in todays press the CBI are reporting the return of the consumer just as I predicted.

I made this same argument last Xmas and was shouted down.

Ah, its great being me, no pie - charts or graphs cluttering my desk, just good 'ole' common sense

Merry Xmas happy shoppers

Suppose you knew the C.E.O. of a huge retailer really well and he was quite happy to tell you that the high street in its current format is doomed? Not the big switch manifesting to the internet either, it still only represents a drop in the ocean.

Explain this to me, as a nation we continue to suck in cheap imported goods from Asia, as each retailer competes furiously for sales inevitably costs have to be cut and margins become practically non existent. Yes sales will chug along and consumers will enjoy lower prices. However, the majority of the employees of these retailers never get past the minimum wage, each retailer finds more ways of shedding staff, or re-jigging part time hours. Those employed by retailers(a huge proportion in the UK job market) now have less spending power, the market keeps on shrinking as do the job prospects....an ever decreasing economic cycle?

[Catch22]

What's your point exactly, I didn't pass comment about Xmas spending nor did most posters, indeed like you say people are always prepared to hock themselves upto the eyeballs at Xmas. But all this debt will just be added to their existing debt, or do you reckon that's it the housing market is saved hip hip.........

CL put it alot better, yet you think every thing in the garden is tickerty boo

[Guest Charlie The Tramp]

Merry Xmas happy shoppers

And don`t worry about the hangover next year.

Christmas / New Year Season: According to Experian three in four Britons admit to worrying about financial pressures during the festive season. The festive season is turning into ‘Stressmas’ as 20% of us are still paying off our Christmas splurges up to six months later, and one in ten is still paying for last Christmas in November 2005.

Whilst the celebrations and partying may be over in a few weeks a report from Virgin Credit Card found Brits take an average of three months to pay off the £13 billion festive celebrations bill they rack up each year, meaning the 12 days of Christmas in reality lasts 12 weeks.

[Flash]

And as I have said before, expect job losses and store closures after Christmas.

Consumer spending has jumped because:

1) Stores are discounting heavily.

2) Even the heavily indebted have to buy presents at Christmas time.

I've flitted between London and Dublin this month and the difference is startling. Dubliners are paying full price and are happy too, the London stores have everything on sale.

[MarkG]

The only comment on Christmas shopping I remember making is that the retail-worker friend of the sexy receptionist at the dentist said that this was the worst Christmas in years: I can't see that that is anything to crow about.

That said, I'd like to see a good Christmas so I can get out of my remaining tech shares next year while they're still making money.

[crash test dummy]

WELL THERE YOU GO - ALL IS WELL THEN, HIGH STREET BEING AT A LOW SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IS ALL GOOD NEWS NEWS.

WHEN YOUR AT THE BOTTOM THERE IS ONLY ONE WAY TO GO AND THAT IS UP, UNLESS OF COURSE YOU GO BUST.

WHICH IS HAPPENENING, HAVE YOU HEARD OF DEBT AND THE INSOLVENCY, BANKRUPCY STATS.

SO IF 60 MILLION PEOPLE WENT BANKRUPT LAST YEAR YOU'D ARGUE THAT THE NEXT YEAR WOULD BE FINE AND DANDY. STATS BY THE SECOND DO NOT COUNT, IT'S AN EXTENDED THING, AS THIS SITE SHOWS.

SO, 22 YEAR HIGH STREET LOW AND YOUR TELLING US ALL IS GOOD. NEWS THAT A 30 YEAR LOW IN HOUSE SALES IS FANTASTIC FOR THE ECONOMY, MAYBE LOSING 3RD PLACE IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE FIGURES TO JAPAN IS GOING TO HELP US. MAYBE IF WE LOOSE EVERYTHING ETC. ETC.

ROSE TINTED ME THINKS.

[Mushroom]

Only anecdotal.

Speaking to a lorry driver friend today. He works for a large frozen/chilled distribution company.

He said he has never known such a quiet time before Christmas in that game.

He's been carrying small loads, the firm is making drivers take holiday entitlement now and five drivers are sitting in the yard on "standby" in case a major supermarket chain needs anything moving. Previously unheard of.

[Guest Charlie The Tramp]

Speaking to a lorry driver friend today. He works for a large frozen/chilled distribution company.

He said he has never known such a quiet time before Christmas in that game.

Maybe people a little short of cash are going to use their throw away food this Christmas.

The British may waste more food than any other nation, throwing out 30-40% of all the produce they buy and grow each year, according to research. Figures collated from the government, supermarkets, processors and farmers show that modern food production methods may appear efficient, "but the reality is that large-scale manufacturing and rigid supply chains are creating very significant quantities of waste".

It is estimated that the wasted food is worth between £8bn and £16bn a year.

[Guest magnoliawalls]

Only anecdotal.

Speaking to a lorry driver friend today. He works for a large frozen/chilled distribution company.

He said he has never known such a quiet time before Christmas in that game.

He's been carrying small loads, the firm is making drivers take holiday entitlement now and five drivers are sitting in the yard on "standby" in case a major supermarket chain needs anything moving. Previously unheard of.

Maybe Jaime Oliver has convinced people that processed gunk is not the way to go.

Maybe people a little short of cash are going to use their throw away food this Christmas.

It is estimated that the wasted food is worth between £8bn and £16bn a year.

I think that much of it gets thrown out before it reaches the shelf - modern consumers have learned to avoid food that is not aesthetically pleasing.

[dogbox]

Explain this to me, as a nation we continue to suck in cheap imported goods from Asia, as each retailer competes furiously for sales inevitably costs have to be cut and margins become practically non existent. Yes sales will chug along and consumers will enjoy lower prices. However, the majority of the employees of these retailers never get past the minimum wage, each retailer finds more ways of shedding staff, or re-jigging part time hours. Those employed by retailers(a huge proportion in the UK job market) now have less spending power, the market keeps on shrinking as do the job prospects....an ever decreasing economic cycle?

Too simplistic for my tastes.

WELL THERE YOU GO - ALL IS WELL THEN, HIGH STREET BEING AT A LOW SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IS ALL GOOD NEWS NEWS.

WHEN YOUR AT THE BOTTOM THERE IS ONLY ONE WAY TO GO AND THAT IS UP, UNLESS OF COURSE YOU GO BUST.

WHICH IS HAPPENENING, HAVE YOU HEARD OF DEBT AND THE INSOLVENCY, BANKRUPCY STATS.

SO IF 60 MILLION PEOPLE WENT BANKRUPT LAST YEAR YOU'D ARGUE THAT THE NEXT YEAR WOULD BE FINE AND DANDY. STATS BY THE SECOND DO NOT COUNT, IT'S AN EXTENDED THING, AS THIS SITE SHOWS.

SO, 22 YEAR HIGH STREET LOW AND YOUR TELLING US ALL IS GOOD. NEWS THAT A 30 YEAR LOW IN HOUSE SALES IS FANTASTIC FOR THE ECONOMY, MAYBE LOSING 3RD PLACE IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE FIGURES TO JAPAN IS GOING TO HELP US. MAYBE IF WE LOOSE EVERYTHING ETC. ETC.

ROSE TINTED ME THINKS.

Dont shout Man.

Look, I am pessimistic much of the time, just like the Dragons on BB2 I think a healthy dose of pessimism is a must to survive and prosper, but I do get a little frustrated when on the run - up to last and this Xmas, HPC posters inform us the high st has died, when in reality the 'high st has died' stories come out every year on the run up to Xmas - nothing new.

Im not saying all is rosy - far from it, Im just trying to get some posters to recognise the 'high st has died' stories that proliforate each year on the run up to Xmas are just a press - cycle.

In the past you will see that in January the press tells us 'depite dire predictions the high st recovered'.

Just trying to get some balance in the debate, thats all.

Crucially though I wouldnt rule out bad retail figures persisting - but just be aware that if there is a turn - around, then something funny is going on, because this is the exact pattern (as proferred by the press) for a number of years.

[Harry Sacks]

Erm, last time I looked The bank rate was 4.5%, of course people are spending money.

[Rave]

The British may waste more food than any other nation, throwing out 30-40% of all the produce they buy and grow each year, according to research. Figures collated from the government, supermarkets, processors and farmers show that modern food production methods may appear efficient, "but the reality is that large-scale manufacturing and rigid supply chains are creating very significant quantities of waste".

It is estimated that the wasted food is worth between £8bn and £16bn a year.

As a part time bin raider, I can assure you that this is true .

[right_freds_dead]

i ahrdly ever throw food away. i dont mean im a really fat bloke, but i buy in small amounts. maybe i throw away the odd rotten pear or the last few flakes of a kellogs pack, but overall im not bad at wasting food.

bread is the usual culprit, though you can throw this out for both the pretty tweetie birds in the morning and for the bloated stinking fang toothed rats at night,.

[aclwalker]

Guys, not gloating here but do you recall my many posts in reply to the threads that predicted dire times for Britains high streets?

I kept repeating this argument; - "its the same every year on the run - up to Xmas, yet miraculously the great British shopper comes good in the end"

As usual the bears told me I was short - sighted. As usual the perma - bears forgot to check what happened in past years.

I note in todays press the CBI are reporting the return of the consumer just as I predicted.

I made this same argument last Xmas and was shouted down.

Ah, its great being me, no pie - charts or graphs cluttering my desk, just good 'ole' common sense

Merry Xmas happy shoppers

They would say that.

You are supposed to think "If everyone else is spending then I have to too. Maybe we _should_ get that Xbox 360 for the kids after all. Don't want us to appear to be tight parents.".

[right_freds_dead]

you could always deveop you own home made xbox-360 from two toilet rolls and a pair of blueladys old knickers. id give it a try at least.....id put the fire button within the gusset housing.

[Levy process]

Guys, not gloating here but do you recall my many posts in reply to the threads that predicted dire times for Britains high streets?

I kept repeating this argument; - "its the same every year on the run - up to Xmas, yet miraculously the great British shopper comes good in the end"

As usual the bears told me I was short - sighted. As usual the perma - bears forgot to check what happened in past years.

I note in todays press the CBI are reporting the return of the consumer just as I predicted.

I made this same argument last Xmas and was shouted down.

Ah, its great being me, no pie - charts or graphs cluttering my desk, just good 'ole' common sense

Merry Xmas happy shoppers

Not exactly a bold prediction, is it: people will increase shopping near Christmas? I don't think there is much evidence that we are not in fact having dire times for the high street. The shops are massively discounting stuff, sales are absolutely everywhere. The figures being reported seem to me to indicate a rise in the number of sales, but how much are the shops making on these, given that nearly every shop is having a sale, and lots are slashing prices by up to 70%?

I'm afraid I don't really rate your prediction as much more exciting than the prediction that the sun will rise tomorrow morning.

Your case is not yet proved: Wait and see how much profit the shops actually make over this season.

[Guest Bart of Darkness]

How the CC saved Christmas?

Christmas (especially in these "spend spend spend" materialist times) is the one time of year where people will go all out to make it a "successful" one and deal with the consequences in January. Part of it is pester power by kids, a lot of it (I think) these days stems from peer pressure. Anyway, whatever the cause, things would have to be very bad before the power of borrowing fails to prop up Christmas.

For this reason I await the final sales figures with interest. We've had a lot of good anecdotal accounts of Christmas shopping this year and I add my (small) contribution here. I so rarely go into Sheffield city centre these days that I can't really call myself an accurate judge of whether the crowds are thinner this year. I do know that I didn't have to queue at all at HMV this year, whereas normally it would be quite a wait to get served (HMV is probably one of those retailers most likely to be hit by online shopping, I myself was buying a gift voucher not CDs or DVDs).

I did notice that the branch of Dixons on Fargate is closing down. This is a prime retail position and Dixons have been there (or slightly further down the row of shops) for decades.

[libitina]

Our sales are down 11% this week. Some very worried managers in-store. Speaking to a checkout colleague, it seems to be mostly normal weekly shops, rather than 'xmas shopping'.

Most people have finished work now so maybe they'll hit the shops from today? Will not be pleasant if they do.

[underpressuretobuy]

Our sales are down 11% this week. Some very worried managers in-store. Speaking to a checkout colleague, it seems to be mostly normal weekly shops, rather than 'xmas shopping'.

Most people have finished work now so maybe they'll hit the shops from today? Will not be pleasant if they do.

Does anyone know how to get hold of figures showing online shopping? Do sales figures include this? I can't imagine they include ebay shops.

A lot of people have been saying that the supermarkets have been strangely quiet and this is usually met with a disbelieving comment that people are still going to need to buy food - but I wonder whether more people are taking advantage of supermarket home delivery services, especially for a big stressful shop like the main Christmas food shop.

Does anyone know where we could get figures relating to home delivery supermarket shopping?

It could explain why things have been unseasonally quiet.

[Bedsprings]

I work near Oxford Street & the last 2 Christmases, it's been really difficult getting through the crowds to the Tube station - not this year though until perhaps this week. Also the sales have already started in Gap & TopShop. they, particularly the latter, appeal to younger consumers who have spent like fury in previous years. Therefore while sales may be high, and there's a lot of activity now, I agree that profits will probably be down, and there will be reduced orders next year.

[libitina]

Does anyone know how to get hold of figures showing online shopping? Do sales figures include this? I can't imagine they include ebay shops.

A lot of people have been saying that the supermarkets have been strangely quiet and this is usually met with a disbelieving comment that people are still going to need to buy food - but I wonder whether more people are taking advantage of supermarket home delivery services, especially for a big stressful shop like the main Christmas food shop.

Does anyone know where we could get figures relating to home delivery supermarket shopping?

It could explain why things have been unseasonally quiet.

In our local area there are 5 supermarkets, only one delivers (Tescos) and they were fully booked from the beginning of the month. Speaking to other people it seems all 5 are a lot quieter than people were expecting..

Like you said, people still have to eat but so far they're not pushing the boat out for Xmas. Also, I've never heard as many people saying that no one has the money this year, very subdued feeling from them.

[teddyboy]

Too simplistic for my tastes.

Dont shout Man.

Look, I am pessimistic much of the time, just like the Dragons on BB2 I think a healthy dose of pessimism is a must to survive and prosper, but I do get a little frustrated when on the run - up to last and this Xmas, HPC posters inform us the high st has died, when in reality the 'high st has died' stories come out every year on the run up to Xmas - nothing new.

Im not saying all is rosy - far from it, Im just trying to get some posters to recognise the 'high st has died' stories that proliforate each year on the run up to Xmas are just a press - cycle.

In the past you will see that in January the press tells us 'depite dire predictions the high st recovered'.

Just trying to get some balance in the debate, thats all.

Crucially though I wouldnt rule out bad retail figures persisting - but just be aware that if there is a turn - around, then something funny is going on, because this is the exact pattern (as proferred by the press) for a number of years.

DOGBOX,

I hear what you are saying but I think you are being a little bit unfair. I think that the chances of the high street 'Drying-up' at Christmas is the same as hell freezing over. The problem with Christmas nowadays is that it is too commercial. There is an element of 'emotional blackmail' to the festive period.

The point I believe people were making is that people are spending LESS than they would in previous years. I think the figure I saw was £130 per person which in personal terms is a lot lower than I would normally spend. This year, I have spend about £110. Not coz I am particularly tight but I need to buy a house and Christmas is about giving - not HOW MUCH you give.

The high street profits are still gonna be there - they always will. When I worked in 'Toy Saw Us' I seen that EVERY product makes at least 100% profit at its lowest price. EG A playstation game that retailed for £29.99 would have been bought for between £4-£7. Thats a MASSIVE profit margin.

When they done 2 for £30 they were still making 100% profit per game (£7 bought - sold for £15). This January willl be a bad one for retailers. I have seen thing with anything up to 60% off and I am sure that the 'emotional blackmail' of Christmas embarrassed shoppers to spend. January does not have the same pulling power. It is going to be January that will be the 'disappointing' time for a LOT of retailers.

My retail experience tells me that they are still making money but because of the lack of REAL MONEY and the credit being MAXXED you have to entice the shoppers.

This is no different in the housing market. Why are there price drops when the market is supposedly on the pick up? It's a sign that market conditions are tough. And I expect that some companies will look at it optimistically, but I believe that the majoriity will be dissapointed with the profit margins.

In conclusion, people will always spend money. It's just 'whose' money are they spending?