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We Live In Interesting Times

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Mmm, posted this in the Financial Markets forum. To supply the monetary firepower to stop markets plunging if US/Israel bombs Iran ? In any case, 2006 seems to be shaping up to be even more 'interesting' than 2005, with or without more hurricanes.

Don't buy houses, buy shiny things is my new motto.

Pent

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Batten down the hatches... (another one for BoredTrainBuilder's cliche scrapbook)

http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=4331&pv=1

:blink:

"This is nuts, folks - unless there is an incredible risk out there we are not being told about."

Peak Oil?

Imagine the intelligence effort the US is making to determine the exact state of the Ghawar and other fields. They have the resources. If nothing else, they have ample satellites to count the tankers coming and going.

Yes, 2006 looks like being a very interesting year. Funny how few of these issues have got out to the mainstream.

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"This is nuts, folks - unless there is an incredible risk out there we are not being told about."

Peak Oil?

Imagine the intelligence effort the US is making to determine the exact state of the Ghawar and other fields. They have the resources. If nothing else, they have ample satellites to count the tankers coming and going.

What about the pipes?

I doubt we've hit the preak, we're on a jagged edge, OPEC will try and maintain >$50 oil for their own reasons and they'll drive us into recession as the secondary affects really kick in, then we can expect $30 oil thanks to the demand destruction and then onto the upward climb.

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My personal interpretation would be that the biggest bubble in history is bursting, and just like when the dot.com bubble went pop, the Fed is reacting by injecting massive liquidity into the system. (Along with every other trick in the book).

The fact that their dot.com reaction caused the even larger housing bubble seems to be lost on them.

Where does it end? Is the elastic infinite? Are there a few more bubbles to come? Or are we about to witness the mother of all elastic snap-backs?

Wouldn't that suggest that interest rates will start falling in the US, or at least stop rising quite soon?

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Normally. But something very complex and new is happening. The Fed want to appear to be tightening, as the appearance of tightening will spike the enthusiasms of the housing bubblistas. But at the same time they are desperate to stop the massive deflationary collapse that they have been holding off, in ever higher waves, really since the 1930s, which implies they must provide liquidity.

They injected over $60bn in just over two days before Christmas, no wonder they want to hide M3.

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I'm no financial guru, but having read about past recessions and economic crisis, one way that governments try to soften any blow is by ensuring liquidity does not dry up. So this to me does signal the fact that the dollar is expected to take a large hit soon (the reason is unknown of course, whether it be peak oil, war, recession, whatever).

I suppose someone has to ask... buy gold?

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Thanks for this; it's something that is an absolute must to keep an eye on.

With reference to another discussion on this site about fractional reserve banking: does this mean that as this money works its way into the banks it will be multiplied by a factor of ten and end up as cheap mortgage money? The $60bn in just over 2 DAYS, becomes $600bn of money to lend out!!!

What will be the effect be on interest rates?

I really don't like the look of this.

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The US Dollar. An infinite resource?

Don't panic folks, we won't run out.

Just what is going on behind closed doors?

All that is discussed here in it's totality, of global as well as local, is also known, in more depth too, at the "top".

I suspect that there are some rather frightening future scenarios being examined.

Is it "firefighting" or long term planning?

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Normally. But something very complex and new is happening. The Fed want to appear to be tightening, as the appearance of tightening will spike the enthusiasms of the housing bubblistas. But at the same time they are desperate to stop the massive deflationary collapse that they have been holding off, in ever higher waves, really since the 1930s, which implies they must provide liquidity.

Bay Area Bear put it well when he said all these discussions are about fantasy monopoly money, the value of which is a political fiction.

I couldn't pretend to really know what's going on. I just know the game is afoot.

Check out the following link, for what game the Fed is really playing

http://www.zealllc.com/2003/infdef2.htm

MG

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Yeah, I wondered about that too, but considering it was written in Aug 2003 it has still put the wind up me....and I theoretically have nothing to lose.

I need to learn how to grow vegetables :P.

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They injected over $60bn in just over two days before Christmas, no wonder they want to hide M3.

Forgive my ignorance, but how do central banks all of a sudden inject money into the system. I'd assumed they did this by making money cheap and therefore consumers took on more debt

If the Fed have injected $60bn, what happens if consumers are maxed out in debt terms? The fed could attempt to inject as much money as they wanted, but short of handing people money in the streets how does this money enter the system if no one is borrowing?

puzzled,

crude

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Forgive my ignorance, but how do central banks all of a sudden inject money into the system. puzzled,

crude

As has been mentioned, it is Monopoly money. You keep believing in it until the game is over.

A bit like religion, really, though this is not an appropriate forum for this kind of topic, let it go no further please.

If Money + Faith in Money = Other peoples Money + Other peoples Faith in Money occurs,

Then Transactions; savings; spending etc will happen.

This credit lark is alien to me. We'll all die before too long you know.

Waaarrggh. Too many cans of cheap lager

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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