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Marina

A Story For The Doubters

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People who have seen my posts on here will know I STRed in December 2003. When ours was on the market, we noticed in the paper that the next-door neighbours at our old house also had their house on the market. We were absolutely astonished to see that they wanted £385k. I remember my wife and I discussing it and we thought £325k would be top money - what were they and the estate agents thinking?!.

Well time has gone by and the couple that were selling have split up. The property stayed on the market - slowly going down in price - for a long, long time. A few months ago I noticed it was up for auction. My wife and I were just talking about our old next-door neighbour as we no longer see her at the school. It suddenly occurred to me I had never looked to find out what it sold for.

Put on the market late 2003 for £385k.

Sold at auction October 2005 for £260k.

That's a drop of 32% from an admittedly ludicrous starting price.

Bring it on - it's going to be a Happy New Year for us HPCers.

PS - Local blocks of flats still unsold after a YEAR. 90% sold - ALLEGEDLY - funny only 6 out of 24 sold on nethouseprices. They just can't seem to get that last 10% away!!!

Edited by Marina

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I'm noticing increasing numbers of price reductions many now above 10/15% but still plenty remaining unsold after months on the market.

Here's a period cottage in a Cotswold village popular with wealthy second-home owners.

It came on several months ago at £320k, dropped to £299K and lask week had £44k slashed off the asking price to now stand at £255k. Thats over 20% off the original asking price and its still unsold. In the boom times village properties like this were being snapped up but those days are now well and truly over...........

http://213.52.169.219/humberts/templates/d...fm?id=HUSW00163

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....And this is why stats churned out by the major lenders and media are simply not believable. There is too much evidence that prices have already dropped substantially. Particularly on flats built between 2003 and the present date. Example: I know of a very large new build....not tens but hundreds of 2 and 3 bedroomed apartments, in the South East. The average price sold either off plan or soon after was 250k. I know this because I've checked the stats at the land registry. There are now many of them on the market for between 190k and 210k, but that is just asking price, not completion price.

How can that possibly square with VI predictions of a rise next year. They are so way out it is ludicrous.

VP

Edited by VacantPossession

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I don't see 30%+ price drops for family homes anywhere in London/ SE.

Nor do I. I was talking about new build apartments, and it was 25%, not 30% +.

But SE does have numerous 10-15% drops. Please look in your local EA's window, then compare with 6 months or a year ago.

Oh, and apartments ARE family homes too.

VP

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I don't see 30%+ price drops for family homes anywhere in London/ SE. Where do you live?

The house I posted about is in Wokingham, Berkshire - and I have loads of other examples over the last couple of years of houses selling WELL below original asking price. If vendors don't drop, they don't sell.

I think it is hard to get out of the 'mentality of the moment' - you look around the market - it still seems overpriced but you take the status quo and assume it was ever so. Well not where I live.

A couple of years ago - more like 3 years ago - was the frenzied height of the market. You'd suddenly notice that nice 5 bed detacheds that a few years earlier would have been 475k had suddenly got really silly - £795k etc. Now they are almost back to £475k.

There has been a huge correction around here already - but, oddly, people haven't really picked up it - blinded by the relentless VI spin that prices are always going up.

Out of curiousity I looked up nethouseprices today for houses in the road I am renting in. Most recent sale was September 05 - 279k for a 4 bed detached estate house. A couple of years ago this would have fetched probably £335k. Not a great example but there are thousands of these houses round here.

The bigger stuff has come down 100k and flats either don't sell or ones that go on the market at 230k actually sell at 180 ish.

Another year of this and, if I decide to stay in this country, I'll be ready to buy.

But SE does have numerous 10-15% drops. Please look in your local EA's window, then compare with 6 months or a year ago.

VP

This is the trouble though - it's only us saddos that are monitoring the market. People don't compare with 6 months or a year ago - they open their property paper and sigh 'it's still mad - will prices ever drop?'

They have, are and will continue to do so.

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The house I posted about is in Wokingham, Berkshire - and I have loads of other examples over the last couple of years of houses selling WELL below original asking price. If vendors don't drop, they don't sell.

I think it is hard to get out of the 'mentality of the moment' - you look around the market - it still seems overpriced but you take the status quo and assume it was ever so. Well not where I live.

A couple of years ago - more like 3 years ago - was the frenzied height of the market. You'd suddenly notice that nice 5 bed detacheds that a few years earlier would have been 475k had suddenly got really silly - £795k etc. Now they are almost back to £475k.

There has been a huge correction around here already - but, oddly, people haven't really picked up it - blinded by the relentless VI spin that prices are always going up.

Out of curiousity I looked up nethouseprices today for houses in the road I am renting in. Most recent sale was September 05 - 279k for a 4 bed detached estate house. A couple of years ago this would have fetched probably £335k. Not a great example but there are thousands of these houses round here.

The bigger stuff has come down 100k and flats either don't sell or ones that go on the market at 230k actually sell at 180 ish.

Another year of this and, if I decide to stay in this country, I'll be ready to buy.

This is the trouble though - it's only us saddos that are monitoring the market. People don't compare with 6 months or a year ago - they open their property paper and sigh 'it's still mad - will prices ever drop?'

They have, are and will continue to do so.

Hi. Yes have defo seen drops of 10% ish here also. There is a confusing issue also, as you said there was a time when people started putting their houses up for ridiculous prices ie £500k suddenly £750k. Thing is I don't think these ever sold at this price and so is it fair to say they have dropped from £750 to £500k? I'm not sure what the answer is. Also people have often put their houses up for ridiculously inflated prices, they never sell.

Don't think that everyone 'on the street' isn't aware that prices have calmed/corrected etc. Most people I know who have any interest in property seem to be aware of whats gone/going on

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Don't think that everyone 'on the street' isn't aware that prices have calmed/corrected etc. Most people I know who have any interest in property seem to be aware of whats gone/going on

Well that's odd because I would say the majority of people I know, and they do come from a wide range of professions, education and so-called social classes, have almost no clue whatever about what is happening and believe almost verbatum whatever any newspaper, building society or other naive person tells them about the housing market.

Hardly anyone I know ever looks beyond the VI spin they are fed daily and of course many of them have their own vested interest and therefore "faith" that property is still going to go up another 150% in the next few years. You can add to this an extraordinarily high number of people who are wondering why they can't sell their houses, some of which have been on the market for over a year. They put it down to the garden, the bathroom, the fireplace or the "wrong time of year". But what, in their total lack of awareness, they never ever contemplate is that the price is simply too high!

VP

Edited by VacantPossession

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I made the prediction of 40% drops about a year ago and few on this site would agree as they believed this figure was too high but now it’s become close to the norm.

For 2006 I predict the £Pound will go down, right down against the euro

Link between the US$ and Oil is being broken

Bush might be impeached over 9-11

US and ECB upping IR’s

UK deficit going up

Brown not getting the growth he predicted

Fiddled inflation figures

………………………..

………………….

£1.00=1.10eu and you can all quote me on that one

so by this time next year when house prices have started to decline a bit faster then they are doing today and you take into account the loss on currency then your wealth may well be 30-50% below what it is today and don’t think it will stop at that.

Party is over just the drunks left here, kick em out and lock the doors, move along nothing to see here.

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Guest Bart of Darkness
Well that's odd because I would say the majority of people I know, and they do come from a wide range of professions, education and so-called social classes, have almost no clue whatever about what is happening and believe almost verbatum whatever any newspaper, building society or other naive person tells them about the housing market.

Without the Internet (and this site) I would be among them.

I rarely mention house prices to my friends though, I lump it in with "politics" and "religion".

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Hi. Yes have defo seen drops of 10% ish here also. There is a confusing issue also, as you said there was a time when people started putting their houses up for ridiculous prices ie £500k suddenly £750k. Thing is I don't think these ever sold at this price and so is it fair to say they have dropped from £750 to £500k? I'm not sure what the answer is. Also people have often put their houses up for ridiculously inflated prices, they never sell.

Don't think that everyone 'on the street' isn't aware that prices have calmed/corrected etc. Most people I know who have any interest in property seem to be aware of whats gone/going on

The problem is that the ludicrous "asking prices" are what is behind the Halifax index for house prices. This must account for the HPI when everyone else is reporting flat or falling prices. Especially the anecdotal reports of 20% drops which seem to be the most reliable as they are actual case scenarios.

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What I find most amusing, incredible, pathetic and worrying is the reaction of the estate W@nkagents.

They have nethouseprices now - they could use this to try to set realistic asking prices - and give themselves a fighting chance of getting a sale but, no, they can't stop themselves. They talk cr@p for a living and when asked to do a valuation can't stop themselves - lots of stuff is still going on 50k over priced.

The estate agents who originally put the property (I started this thread off with) on the market at 385k have put the vendor in the classic position of following the market down. If it had gone on at £335k they might have got it away (who knows? but much more likely). Nearly two years on they have chased the market all the way down to an auction sale at 260k. I am sure they were as greedy as hell when they first put it on the market and salivated when the agent suggested/agreed to put it on at 385k.

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Am seeing falls at all price levels in my part of Ceredigion, W Wales.

8 years ago you could buy a farmhouse and 100 acres for 180K. Currently that would buy you a detched bog-std 3 bed bungalow with a garden. With no work there and declining agric incomes the prices are still insane.

What's happening to prices in Aberystwyth?

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The problem is that the ludicrous "asking prices" are what is behind the Halifax index for house prices. This must account for the HPI when everyone else is reporting flat or falling prices.

No they aren't. The Halifax index is based on loan approvals (I think) and indicates that at least one loony has agreed to buy at a given price.

Rightmove is based on asking prices (though their methodology is not open) and should provide the best available indication of a reduction in asking prices. (Their graph does show a local downtrend, but then the figures are not SA).

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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