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Rebel

Do You Still Believe....

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Even the most ardent bears- capital Economics who had been predicting falls of 20% year after year since 2000- have finally realised that house prices in Britain are not going to collapse overnight.

The various experts in the field of housing have their predictions for the new year:

(The following is taken from this is money from a couple of days ago):

WHAT THE EXPERTS SAY

HOUSE PRICE INFLATION IN 2006

Halifax 3% rise

Nationwide 0-3% rise

Council of Mortgage Lenders 2% rise

Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors 4% rise

Rightmove 4% rise

Hometrack 4% rise

Knight Frank 2.5% rise

Savills 0% rise

Haart 2-3% rise

The amateurs have been predicting falls of large proportions without thinking that the fundamentals are sound. They have been proved wrong time and time again. Prices have stabilized. There is no evidence of imminent falls. Even the Bank of England do not consider this a significant threat. What do the amateurs have got to say now?

How many here are revising their thoughts? Have you been reconsidering your stance? Apart from dramatic anecdotals and theories of falls based on previous crashes, can anyone give exact data to substantiate these claims?

HAVE A HAPPY CHRISTMAS!

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Interesting that, after specifically mentioning Capital Economics, you don't include their revised prediction. In fact, all of the experts you mention all have a vested interest in the housing market not crashing.

Anyhow - do really want an answer, or would you prefer us to stay quiet, so you can gloat about how clever you are?

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Interesting that, after specifically mentioning Capital Economics, you don't include their revised prediction. In fact, all of the experts you mention all have a vested interest in the housing market not crashing.

Let me echo what NJP said... Rebel's post is completely biased.

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Even the most ardent bears- capital Economics who had been predicting falls of 20% year after year since 2000- have finally realised that house prices in Britain are not going to collapse overnight.

The various experts in the field of housing have their predictions for the new year:

(The following is taken from this is money from a couple of days ago):

WHAT THE EXPERTS SAY

HOUSE PRICE INFLATION IN 2006

Halifax 3% rise

Nationwide 0-3% rise

Council of Mortgage Lenders 2% rise

Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors 4% rise

Rightmove 4% rise

Hometrack 4% rise

Knight Frank 2.5% rise

Savills 0% rise

Haart 2-3% rise

The amateurs have been predicting falls of large proportions without thinking that the fundamentals are sound. They have been proved wrong time and time again. Prices have stabilized. There is no evidence of imminent falls. Even the Bank of England do not consider this a significant threat. What do the amateurs have got to say now?

How many here are revising their thoughts? Have you been reconsidering your stance? Apart from dramatic anecdotals and theories of falls based on previous crashes, can anyone give exact data to substantiate these claims?

HAVE A HAPPY CHRISTMAS!

Before the bears close in, perhaps I can offer a suggestion.

Have a look through old press cuttings of the early 1990s to see how the 'EXPERTS' predicted there would be no crash in 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993....

I think you can access them electronically on this website if you care to surf a bit.

BTW I don't think there will be HUGE falls. I don't see it being more than 20% down as a realistic worst case scenario.

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still absolutely convinced of a hpc

i dont buy the rubbish that " the fundamentals" are sound.

if the fundamentals are so sound, please explain the following:

hpi has gone from 20% to zero in 12 months. why is this?

debt has gone from £600 bilion to £1300 bilion in 4 years.

new house build has droppped by 20% in the last 12 months

ftbers now account for 8% of purchases against a long term average of 30%. without ftbers the chains cannot be completed.

investors account for 50% of new house sales according to a national developer. as the investors realise this is a bad place to put their money they will withdraw causing more pain for developers. as investors of load bad investments then they will help drive prices down further

when i was young we used to play pass the parcel. when the music stopped playing if you had the parcel you were out.

well, the orchestra stopped playing a while ago but some people havent noticed yet.

the vis will try and talk the game up .

on what do they base their predictions for any price increases next year?.

they presumbaly think there are still enough suckers out there to con into taking life damaging levels of debt.

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Let me echo what NJP said... Rebel's post is completely biased.

I have a grievance about this reply. Mine is not a biased post, only an alternative view point.

The term vested interest does not include the financiers and property developers- FTB have vested interest in buying property, STR have in buying at a lower price than they sold etc.

But I do not consider FTB doing anything wrong in having a vested interest, unlike you.

Many a FTB has been misled by wrong assurances in such a way that they have waited long without buying a property which would have been affordable, finally missing the boat possibly for ever.

It is wrong to accuse one without understanding the substance of the post.

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if the fundamentals are so sound, please explain the following:

hpi has gone from 20% to zero in 12 months. why is this?

--House prices cannot stay inflated at 20% for ever- But that does not automatically mean it has to crash.

debt has gone from £600 bilion to £1300 bilion in 4 years.

--So what is the problem? If you can repay your debts it does not mean anything.

new house build has droppped by 20% in the last 12 months

--the builders need not be building at the same rate all the time.

ftbers now account for 8% of purchases against a long term average of 30%. without ftbers the chains cannot be completed.

--Obvious fact; FTB cannot afford property like it was. However, If you are so convinced, can you explain how the prices increased 20% year on year over the last five years with the FTB numbers dropping like stone?

investors account for 50% of new house sales according to a national developer.
--True: it is a form of business. People are looking for different investments- they enter a form of business when they think it is profitable.
as the investors realise this is a bad place to put their money they will withdraw causing more pain for developers. as investors of load bad investments then they will help drive prices down further

--That is only a theory.

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I have a grievance about this reply. Mine is not a biased post, only an alternative view point.

The term vested interest does not include the financiers and property developers- FTB have vested interest in buying property, STR have in buying at a lower price than they sold etc.

But I do not consider FTB doing anything wrong in having a vested interest, unlike you.

Many a FTB has been misled by wrong assurances in such a way that they have waited long without buying a property which would have been affordable, finally missing the boat possibly for ever.

It is wrong to accuse one without understanding the substance of the post.

You're right - everyone has a vested interest.

You happen to have only quoted figures from people who have an interest in the market not collapsing. That's your prerogative, but to imply those constitute the only 'expert' figures is misleading.

It's pretty clear from your recent posts that the only reason you're here is to try to wind people up, but I think that it's interesting that the best 'alternative viewpoint' can manage is a group of predictions saying that property is unlikely to rise much more than inflation. Hardly a compelling reason to invest in property.

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Do I believe in HPC?

Better question would be do I believe that the economy is being destroyed by debt and high costs - answer to that is yes. Productivity is falling, personal debt is rising, manufacturing is losing 100,000 jobs a year and the lenders who provide their house prices indices are lending more money on increasingly fewer real assets - if they want to jepardize their loan boom fair enough but these stats are not 100% representative of the market. The consumer driven boom is failing as people who don't move don't upgrade, transaction volumes are falling. It is a speuclative bubble plain and simple and it is distorting the real economy horribly.

This is a recipe for disaster and if anything it is getting worse in the depth and magnitude of its collateral effects.

Edited by OnlyMe

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You're right - everyone has a vested interest.

You happen to have only quoted figures from people who have an interest in the market not collapsing. That's your prerogative, but to imply those constitute the only 'expert' figures is misleading.

It's pretty clear from your recent posts that the only reason you're here is to try to wind people up, but I think that it's interesting that the best 'alternative viewpoint' can manage is a group of predictions saying that property is unlikely to rise much more than inflation. Hardly a compelling reason to invest in property.

I am sorry I did not understand your post.

I already quoted the name of Capital Economics (everyone here knows their predictions- for your sake, I can tell that they predicted a fall of 5% over next two years and stagnation afterwards, not hardly a crash if you are banking on a x3.5 salary multiple for a FTB to get in to the property ladder).

Tell me the predictions from other experts (those who deal with or study in depth the property)- I will be glad to listen.

I am not trying to wind up anyone- just trying to understand the market and the way people think. If the facts are not what you like, that does not mean they are meant to wind you up.

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Even the most ardent bears- capital Economics who had been predicting falls of 20% year after year since 2000- have finally realised that house prices in Britain are not going to collapse overnight.

The various experts in the field of housing have their predictions for the new year:

(The following is taken from this is money from a couple of days ago):

WHAT THE EXPERTS SAY

HOUSE PRICE INFLATION IN 2006

Halifax 3% rise

Nationwide 0-3% rise

Council of Mortgage Lenders 2% rise

Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors 4% rise

Rightmove 4% rise

Hometrack 4% rise

Knight Frank 2.5% rise

Savills 0% rise

Haart 2-3% rise

The amateurs have been predicting falls of large proportions without thinking that the fundamentals are sound. They have been proved wrong time and time again. Prices have stabilized. There is no evidence of imminent falls. Even the Bank of England do not consider this a significant threat. What do the amateurs have got to say now?

How many here are revising their thoughts? Have you been reconsidering your stance? Apart from dramatic anecdotals and theories of falls based on previous crashes, can anyone give exact data to substantiate these claims?

HAVE A HAPPY CHRISTMAS!

if I may Lord Vadar,

Capital were actually a lot cuter than you have thought, they have suggested a 20% correction for some time, however, not 20% year after year, in 3 years that would be 60% :P Their revised prediction is a 5% fall next year, this could be followed by the slow unravelling of the economy for many years. Let`s estimate 20-25%% falls over the next 3-4 years with newbuild flats in isolation suffering an even worse fate, perhaps 30-35%, doesn`t appear to be unrealistic now does it? 400k house falls in value by 100k ;)

Edited by Converted Lurker

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Do I believe in HPC?

Better question would be do I believe that the economy is being destroyed by debt and high costs - answer to that is yes. Productivity is falling, personal debt is rising, manufacturing is losing 100,000 jobs a year and the lenders who provide their house prices indices are lending more money on increasingly fewer real assets - if they want to jepardize their loan boom fair enough but these stats are not 100% representative of the market. The consumer driven boom is failing as people who don't move don't upgrade, transaction volumes are falling. It is a speuclative bubble plain and simple and it is distorting the real economy horribly.

This is a recipe for disaster and if anything it is getting worse in the depth and magnitude of its collateral effects.

Only me

This is my problem.

I think you are too pessimistic about Britain.

If we have China to make us products cheaply, why do we have to manufacture these? 99 p shops are full of these products and we know the quality of these products. We do produce high tech products- the large companies in FTSE like BAE, Cobham, VT, Rolls-Royce, Beverage companies, Glaxo, Astra and innumerable others do manufacture goods of high quality; we sell arms and defence equipment and aircraft to various countries- We are quality unlike many of these foreign imports. Will you buy a Chinese car or computer?

The profits of the major companies last year year were record breaking- does not suggest ailing businesses. I do not think we are staring at disaster.

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Interesting that, after specifically mentioning Capital Economics, you don't include their revised prediction. In fact, all of the experts you mention all have a vested interest in the housing market not crashing.

Anyhow - do really want an answer, or would you prefer us to stay quiet, so you can gloat about how clever you are?

Sums it up nicely I think, the thread opener is akin to asking a bunch of double glazing salesmen do you offer value for money. Meaning all the Vested Interest parties mentioned above will say absolutely anything to get you to buy that which they are selling. If the original post was in paper form I could at least have wipe my **** on it but as it is not it has no value of worth whatsoever.

But thanks anyway,

Merry Xmas

Yes we are heavely into exporting the means to kill people, one of our few exporting success stories. Kinda belies the idea we are a nation of peace lovers, we export violence. As for buying a Chinese PC, IBM sold out it's PC business in 2005 to a Chinese maunfacture and bought a slice of that company. Infact you will find more components made in China than made in the West in the majority of PC's be they Dell, Packard Bell or whatever.

Edited by Catch22

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Guest Bart of Darkness

The various experts in the field of housing have their predictions for the new year:

(The following is taken from this is money from a couple of days ago):

WHAT THE EXPERTS SAY

HOUSE PRICE INFLATION IN 2006

Halifax 3% rise

Nationwide 0-3% rise

Council of Mortgage Lenders 2% rise

Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors 4% rise

Rightmove 4% rise

Hometrack 4% rise

Knight Frank 2.5% rise

Savills 0% rise

Haart 2-3% rise

I've highlighted in bold those in your list who have a vested interest in house prices continuing to rise.

Hold on, that's all of them!

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I am sorry I did not understand your post.

I already quoted the name of Capital Economics (everyone here knows their predictions- for your sake, I can tell that they predicted a fall of 5% over next two years and stagnation afterwards, not hardly a crash if you are banking on a x3.5 salary multiple for a FTB to get in to the property ladder).

Tell me the predictions from other experts (those who deal with or study in depth the property)- I will be glad to listen.

I am not trying to wind up anyone- just trying to understand the market and the way people think. If the facts are not what you like, that does not mean they are meant to wind you up.

I'm sorry you didn't understand my post, too.

Nevertheless, if you'd like some alternative predictions, take a look at the front page of this site.

If you're genuinely trying to understand the way people think, I'll give you my opinion:

Residential Property is overpriced on several measures, and historically, this has led to a correction in real terms. Experts are currently divided on whether this will happen in the near future, and I genuinely have no idea whether there will be a crash or not.

Would I like to see a crash? Yes and no. I can afford to get a mortgage on a house now, but I'd obviously like to get more for my money. On the other hand, I run a business that relies on retail sales, which would be affected if a crash came hand-in-hand with a recession.

Why aren't I buying if I'm one of the lucky ones who can still afford it? Believe it or not, it's based on the figures you quoted above. Nobody thinks that prices are going to rise by much more than inflation, and while that's the case, renting is a better investment. If sufficient evidence mounts that prices are going to start to rocket again, I'll definitely consider buying. On the other hand, if prices do start to fall substantially, I'll be much better off continuing to rent. In short, for me, it's a case of wait and see.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

This is my problem.

I think you are too pessimistic about Britain.

You have got to be a Public Sector worker on a very nice screw and a good future pension. People I know who work in the Public Sector have very similiar views to yourself. People I know who work in the Private Sector are quite pessimistic about the future of UK plc.

BTW how many BTLs have you got?

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To answer your question, I do believe in a HPC albeit a mild one (5%-10%) in the short to medium term.

Consistent rises in unemployment (Fact!)

Slow economic growth (will get worse)

Poor ability to service debt (businesses & consumers)

Pressure from global economies (IRs, ERs, trade, inflation, etc…)

Record levels of personal debt (Ha Ha Ha)

Increasing levels of insolvencies and repossessions (Its your own fault)

I keep an open mind and remain critical of what the VI brigade peddle in our media, I am also critical of what I read on board like this. Mind you, this board stands head and shoulders above the rest.

The state of the UK economy will determine how we live and operate and this absorbs the housing market into the equation. How can the housing market contradict economic indicators?

I predict small drops in housing prices during the first part of 2006 and acceleration in price decrease towards the end of the year.

Will a further drop in IRs kick start a static housing market?… I don’t think so. They can’t go any lower, unless you want to see a dramatic devaluation of our currency. The UK will not cut its own throat in order to prolong the lifecycle of a grossly inflated housing market.

Merry XMAS...

B)

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Only me

This is my problem.

I think you are too pessimistic about Britain.

If we have China to make us products cheaply, why do we have to manufacture these? 99 p shops are full of these products and we know the quality of these products. We do produce high tech products- the large companies in FTSE like BAE, Cobham, VT, Rolls-Royce, Beverage companies, Glaxo, Astra and innumerable others do manufacture goods of high quality; we sell arms and defence equipment and aircraft to various countries- We are quality unlike many of these foreign imports. Will you buy a Chinese car or computer?

The profits of the major companies last year year were record breaking- does not suggest ailing businesses. I do not think we are staring at disaster.

Not saying that some companies cannot do well - many can. A lot of them are doing well at the moment only by downsizing or shifting their production, services, support and administration abroad. This will evetually lead to a collapse in many of the home markets as the staff that are booted out are no longer able to be consumers of product. The trade deficit tells you all you need to know about how well UK companies are competing. The rest of the companies doing well are nearly all feeding off the finance/consumer/debt/property whirlwind there profit and income stream is and always has been associated with the boom and bust nature of the economy, something which has not been tackled, in fact has been exacerbated to a lelve far beyind even the late 80's.

As for buying a chinese computer, you cannot buy a british made one, only an assembled one with a badge on the front. The UK had a large circuit board production and assembly industry - nearly all of it has gone over the last 5-7 years, the design work will follow over the next decade.

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Prononouncements from the likes of Halifax and Nationwide etc are just sales patter to be taken with a pinch of salt. The crash/major correection, call it what you like, is very much underway.

I only have to look at the evidence in front of my eyes to see that prices are dropping with more and more sellers stuck on the market despite cutting 10, 15, and even 20% off their original prices. There's nothing on the horizon to suggest that this downward pressure on prices isn't going to continue and even accelerate as possible recession looms and debt problems exacerbate.

Here's examples of price cutting....................

A Story For The Doubters, Now that's what I call a price drop

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Let me echo what NJP said... Rebel's post is completely biased.

I have a grievance about this reply. Mine is not a biased post, only an alternative view point.

The term vested interest does not include the financiers and property developers- FTB have vested interest in buying property, STR have in buying at a lower price than they sold etc.

But I do not consider FTB doing anything wrong in having a vested interest, unlike you.

Many a FTB has been misled by wrong assurances in such a way that they have waited long without buying a property which would have been affordable, finally missing the boat possibly for ever.

It is wrong to accuse one without understanding the substance of the post.

I don't really understand your reply... I wasn't talking about you or your opinions, I was talking about the post being biased since it only quoted the analysis from one group of organisations, the organisations with a vested interest in rises. That's what makes it biased.

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Many a FTB has been misled by wrong assurances in such a way that they have waited long without buying a property which would have been affordable, finally missing the boat possibly for ever.

This is probably one of the most irrational statements I have heard in a long time. What are you saying? That if people don't buy now they never will be able to? This smacks of total desperation.

From what you are saying, this will be the last generation of property owners as everyone else will "miss the boat forever....." Bit of a bugger if you haven't been born yet.

:lol::lol::lol:

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From what you are saying, this will be the last generation of property owners as everyone else will "miss the boat forever....." Bit of a bugger if you haven't been born yet.

:lol::lol::lol:

pmsl.gif

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Before the bears close in, perhaps I can offer a suggestion.

Have a look through old press cuttings of the early 1990s to see how the 'EXPERTS' predicted there would be no crash in 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993....

I think you can access them electronically on this website if you care to surf a bit.

You can find what the media said about the last crash in the FAQ here.

It's rather funny reading claims of the market stability and potential rises during those years, certainly brings you back down to the reality of todays situation. The signs of pressure are rising, I know people who have had to downsize from a nice 4 bed detached to a 3 bed semi and another who has already missed mortgage payments. This is todays reality, these are real people and it is happening now. Reposessions up all across the board not by 10% or even 20%, but up to 70% and above in certain places in the last 9 months alone.

Even the BBC was upto its old tricks again earlier with Radio 2 news report talking about Scotland's rising house prices, in proportion to the rest of the UK. They also mentioned the South East had the lowest rises, but in actual fact we know the South East is really struggling with only property with huge discounts selling.

Watch the market, not the media and you'll see clear as day what is happening.

Edited by Nem

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Bit of a bugger if you haven't been born yet.

Don't be silly: 'executive apartments' will become family heirlooms to be passed down through the generations. Kids will wait anxiously for fifty years, living in the second bedroom, until their parents die off and they can finally get married and have kids of their own.

Of course those whose great-grandparents 'missed the boat' in the 1990s will be condemned to live in cardboard boxes for their entire lives... if they're lucky.

Edited by MarkG

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  • 341 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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