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Could A Core Eu Surrounded By An Outer Group Of Eec Members Be A Way Of This Mess?

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Guys and girls,

Just a bit of pondering on my part, I'd like to bounce an idea around.

At present the UK is split round the middle between Brexiters and Remainers. A compromise solution is increasingly looking like a necessary evil to order to prevent years of strife and decline for the UK.

Equally, the EU is not in a good way - torn between the partisans of a full political union, and those who want to keep their own sovereignty (Britain was this group's cheerleader, but is far from the only member in it).

At various times politicians have put forward the idea of a 2-speed EU:

  • An inner core that goes ahead with full political integration.
  • An outer group that looks something like the old EEC - i.e. a free-trade area.

I was wondering if this might be a way out of the current mess; Merkel & Hollande would no longer have the UK thwarting their plans for closer union; and I believe that the Brexit camp would largely be satisfied with this solution - enough anyway that a new "Out, EEC, or EU" referendum would deliver a decisive "EEC" answer.

I've attached a quick poll to this thread and I'd be interested in what people think.

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I am anti-globalisation so I'd like to keep the money here and keep the rabble out. Which option is that under?

Agree. Which option is that? Presumably 'leave'.

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I was hoping that we might revert to something like the EFTA, but I don't see why we should pay to access the single market, unless the EU also pays us to access the UK market.

They sell more to us than we do to them. They should pay us more.

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Probably, but I'm really not sure. However I doubt that it's a way out for the same reason we've got to where we are - it would require the EU to face its flaws. There are all sorts of ways things could work but when you've got the largest player determined to ignore them they're purely academic. If that wasn't the case Leave wouldn't have won.

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Useful reading:

Adam Smith Institute: Evolution not Revolution (EEA option preferred)

http://www.adamsmith.org/evolution-not-revolution

Flexcit Report: (in depth Brexit plan)

http://www.eureferendum.com/documents/flexcit.pdf

For me, Flexcit seems the most common sense approach. I think it will lead to a more powerful EFTA and most likely a smaller EU (other countries will follow us). Currently all technical directives are created by unesce, and the EU just rubber stamps their findings. We should be able to cut out the middle man, and plug directly into unesce. Then let the EU have their own federal state. It might take 30 or 40 years though.

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I was hoping that we might revert to something like the EFTA, but I don't see why we should pay to access the single market, unless the EU also pays us to access the UK market.

They sell more to us than we do to them. They should pay us more.

+1

Let's Leave and take WTO most favoured nation status. We'd rake in twice the tariff income (at least) than the EU will.

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Mess? What mess?

I voted complete leave, but I do think there are various grups that could form associatations for their mutual benefit (Scandinavian Germanic, Latin/Romance/French, mediterranenan)

I can't see France signing uo to be a junior partner to Germany in a core EU at the moment, and I can't see Germany giving up their recently discovered authority.

On reflection, it could be the German reunification that was the beginning of the end of the EU.

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There is no access to the single market without adopting all four pillars of it: Goods, trade, people

etc

these pillars are sacred and go hand in hand with access to the single market the EU will not give them up, if they did relent on free movement then it would signal to other member nations that leaving could be a good idea also.

Being as free movement is now a red line as the glorious victors the 17m Brexiteer's have triumphed in the democratic ballot, then there is only the OUT / WTC option left which means export tarrifs for the UK

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There is no access to the single market without adopting all four pillars of it: Goods, trade, people

etc these pillars are sacred and go hand in hand with access to the single market the EU will not give them up.

That's why the EU is on the path to self destruction.

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There is no access to the single market without adopting all four pillars of it: Goods, trade, people

etc

these pillars are sacred and go hand in hand with access to the single market the EU will not give them up, if they did relent on free movement then it would signal to other member nations that leaving could be a good idea also.

Being as free movement is now a red line as the glorious victors the 17m Brexiteer's have triumphed in the democratic ballot, then there is only the OUT / WTC option left which means export tarrifs for the UK

... and as pointed out above tariffs for the EU in their single biggest export market.

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That's why the EU is on the path to self destruction.

Maybe but you have to understand the theory behind the single market and the four freedoms:

Capital, Goods, Services, Workers

These are the four freedoms that underpin the single market it is how it works.

It is why Noway had to accept free movement and Switzerland is about to lose access to the single market due to resisting free movement.

The only other choice is WTC / Canadian model where Export Tarrifs will be put on the UK,

the uk based car manufacturers for example will have an export tarrif put on the vehicles they export into the single market in other words bye bye uk manufacturing.

Edit: yes i get that there will be tarrifs the other way too but when manufacturers & services start relocating from here to the EU we will be in the ****

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But that's my point - it's not working. Why is the export tariff model the only other choice? In practice it will be but that's because of the instransigence of the EU, not because there's a sound reason for keeping all of those four pillars sacred. They are perhaps a decent ideal (although they promote globalisation and centralisation, which when taken too far is rather damaging) but require the right environment to function in and give a decent result instead of causing damage. The EU is not that environment.

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But that's my point - it's not working. Why is the export tariff model the only other choice? In practice it will be but that's because of the instransigence of the EU, not because there's a sound reason for keeping all of those four pillars sacred. They are perhaps a decent ideal (although they promote globalisation and centralisation, which when taken too far is rather damaging) but require the right environment to function in and give a decent result instead of causing damage. The EU is not that environment.

Good post

I don't know where i was going with my post, just seems to be alot of Threads with a Pro-Remain / compromise slant,

I want nothing less than the abolishion of Free Movement for the UK & Article 50 triggered asap.

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Good post

I don't know where i was going with my post, just seems to be alot of Threads with a Pro-Remain / compromise slant,

I want nothing less than the abolishion of Free Movement for the UK & Article 50 triggered asap.

I'm going to disagree with you there (sorry to do so just after you've called my post good!)

Ideally I want the abolishment of free movement, but if things are shaken up enough that the numbers reduce significantly anyway what's left might not be so bad that it's intolerable. Triggering Article 50 too soon would be a disaster, we need a solid plan and idea of how negotiations will go before that's done. Two years isn't long (and the chance of unanimous agreement to extend nonexistant), and if we're not very careful the hardline EU element will just run down the clock to try to leave us with no agreement.

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I would certainly given thought to half way option, but it wasn't offered. I believe this could be what we end up with. Like Norway, who still contribute to the EU, BTW. :huh:

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+1

Let's Leave and take WTO most favoured nation status. We'd rake in twice the tariff income (at least) than the EU will.

Interesting claim; I'd like to se the maths.

In reality, it will all be interconnected with fishing rights, MEP golden handshakes, MEP pensions, Juncker's dacha, etc.

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Just get us out - no more free movement without subjecting to the points system á la Australia. No more paying in.. They're as keen to trade with us as we are with them... :ph34r:

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Just get us out - no more free movement without subjecting to the points system á la Australia. No more paying in.. They're as keen to trade with us as we are with them... :ph34r:

We can't even manage the number of non-EU migrants coming in via our points system...why do you think it would lower immigration?

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c1b8471c-296b-11e6-8ba3-cdd781d02d89.html#axzz4CzsPY1Xj

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It is either Leave or European Super State to my mind

Perhaps surprisingly I can live with either just not the one in the middle

The idea that this choice can be finessed and gerrymandered by individuals or EU member states is what is creating this shambles

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I was hoping that we might revert to something like the EFTA, but I don't see why we should pay to access the single market, unless the EU also pays us to access the UK market.

They sell more to us than we do to them. They should pay us more.

I don't see any problem with a "core" eu at all.in fact a north-south split is probably the best solution for all.

but we,are still culturally different to a lot of europe...our federation should be with the US and canada.

sort of north american union, with US,UK,Canada,scotland and ireland, minus mexico.

I know the reason why the powers that be want mexico in that union,but again, it is down to culture,rather than geography, why they should not be in.

given the short shrift the EU have just given wee jimmy, she'd be wise to contemplate such a proposal.

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Maybe but you have to understand the theory behind the single market and the four freedoms:

Capital, Goods, Services, Workers

These are the four freedoms that underpin the single market it is how it works.

It is why Noway had to accept free movement and Switzerland is about to lose access to the single market due to resisting free movement.

The only other choice is WTC / Canadian model where Export Tarrifs will be put on the UK,

the uk based car manufacturers for example will have an export tarrif put on the vehicles they export into the single market in other words bye bye uk manufacturing.

Edit: yes i get that there will be tarrifs the other way too but when manufacturers & services start relocating from here to the EU we will be in the ****

and what of the "securities"?

security of people

security of way of life

security of legal procedure and due process

security of core essentials(ie food,water,fuel,shelter,medical care and welfare)

free movement of people is a lovely utopian idea, but one person with a contageous/infectious disease allowed in without proper screening will affect the lives of possibly hundreds,if not thousands of people and their general wellbeing here.

likewise with folks with serious cultural differences to us...only a matter of time until you get sleeper cells trying to enforce their particular viewpoint with violence....to which the only response is violence back.

better not to let it happen in the first place.

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