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Nationwide June 2016 - New Peak Reached

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I looked at this having seen a bullish article discussing 5.1% increase in the year.

However it seems to me the truth is clear from the trend in the data and shows anything but good news for those wanting HPI.

The chart on Forex Factory for example shows a steady and definite decline in the rate of inflation since the beginning of 2014. The trend is quite clear and shows that the Nationwide Index will not hold onto increases for very much if any longer and they will no longer be able to distort the truth in this way.

Just wait until the "Brexunder" trend hits!

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I've said it before and I'll keep saying it: the Nationwide is an unreliable and "noisy" index. A 0.2% rise is therefore not significant.

The "gold standard" index used to be the one produced by the land registry although that suffers from delayed (and occasionally innaccurate) price reporting from sales as it relies on the third party submission of price paid data from the conveyancing process. Hence the endless revisions which cause the more batty wing of HPC to suspect it of forming part of the "Great Conspiracy".

Aacadametrics and the ONS produce reasonable indices.

I'm starting to go over old ground: a search of these forums should dig up old threads which consider the strengths and weaknesses of the various indices in more detail.

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UK consumer credit growth highest since 2005.

Consumer credit in the United Kingdom increased by £1.5 billion in May 2016 following a £1.29 billion growth in April and above market expectation of a £1.4 billion growth. It rose 9.9 percent year-on-year, following a 9.5 percent increase in the previous month, the fastest pace since November 2005. Credit card lending increased by £0.4 billion, in line with the average over the previous six months. Other loans rose by £1.1 billion, also in line with the average over the previous six months. Consumer Credit in the United Kingdom averaged 883.02 GBP Million from 1993 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 2230 GBP Million in January of 2005 and a record low of -1223 GBP Million in August of 2009. Consumer Credit in the United Kingdom is reported by the Bank of England.


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New all-time highs for FTB P/E ratio in Nationwide's London and Outer Met regions in Q2 2016:

Superb stuff as ever, FT. Thanks for posting.

The 2008 peak is starting to look like noise and not signal in London. :blink:


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