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A.steve

General Elections...

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A question...

In the news we have suggestions that another general election is imminent:

* http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/theresa-may-tories-general-election-stop-boris

* http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-referendum-general-election-when-will-it-be-october-boris-johnson-michael-gove-david-cameron-a7106041.html

* http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-36651841

But, I thought, this possibility had been ended forever - and that the UK government is subject to non-negotiable fixed terms.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011

Am I missing something?

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From your link:

Section 2 of the Act also provides for two ways in which a general election can be held before the end of this five-year period:

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From your link:

I (now) recognise that there are some extraordinary provisions - but... does anyone think those criteria can be met?

I find it difficult to believe that the House of Commons, as it stands, could get a result on anything non-trivial with a 2/3 majority. To my, cynical, mind - this goes double for the sitting MPs - for whom a general election, especially in the near future, would maximally risk their seats. Will they, really, want to gift UKIP the chance of more than one seat?

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I (now) recognise that there are some extraordinary provisions - but... does anyone think those criteria can be met?

I find it difficult to believe that the House of Commons, as it stands, could get a result on anything non-trivial with a 2/3 majority. To my, cynical, mind - this goes double for the sitting MPs - for whom a general election, especially in the near future, would maximally risk their seats. Will they, really, want to gift UKIP the chance of more than one seat?

I agree. I find it very disturbing to hear the MSM mentioning "there'll be an early election" over and over, without ONCE including the caveat that this can ONLY happen as set out above. They have a duty to mention that caveat each and every time, but everyone is acting as if the Fixed-term Parliaments Act doesn't even exist! It's been the Law for 5 years now.

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Thoughtful post. There is no chance of an early election. The conservatives are scared shitless even with the labour party in its present state.I give you some scenarios.

Lib Dems offer another referendum

Labour manifesto is Swiss model so trading but EU immigration policies

Conservatives - hardest to guess - depends upon new leader but will be weary of UKIP.

UKIP rapid exit

SNP remain in EU

1. Result is hung parliament with conservatives overall majority. Who would they go into coalition with ?

2. Result is small conservative majority with remainer having critical role.

3. Result is large conservative majority but they cannot deliver on their promises. Progress in negotiations is glacial. They cannot agree when is the right time to enact article 50. businesses move away from the UK and the conservatives are out of power for 20 years.

It also follows the longer the delay before the next election the more diverse the parties positions may be and the greater the likelihood that a non-leave party would be in power.

Squeeze

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What ?!? - Tories under Boris Johnson having a manifesto which is pro-EU.

And Labour having been kicked in the balls in the Northern towns saying 'we hear your pain - but vote for us and we will put you back into the EU'. No, neither party will want to undo the Referendum results but both will seek to play to their supporters whilst maneuvering to keep UKIP out. Remember at the last general election UKIP got stuffed and that is the most likely result next time as well - after all why vote for a single issue party when that issue has been resolved ?

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Camoron thought he was shooting UKIP's fox, instead it anally abused him. Both mainstream parties will have to go pro EU. It might savage the Tory party, depending on who buys the next go. UKIP will force the issue of post-Brexit, and major on this. Basically 50% Tory / Labour split & fight, 50% potential UKIP - I have ignored the looney Lib Dems. Going forward Parties will have to show their hand on the EU.

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They should repeal the Fixed Term Parliaments Act - it's an undemocratic stitch-up. That would only require a simple majority in the Commons.

But I fear that politicians like power (and their salaries) too much to ever voluntarily have any more elections than absolutely necessary. Why give up 5 year guaranteed job security? No other job in the country is as good (except being appointed to the Lords).

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Before the Act the average term of a post-war Parliament was less than 4 years. So by fixing elections every five years they have significantly reduced the power of the electorate to kick out governments.

The Conservatives already have mid-term blues just a year after getting in, saved only by the Labour party's utter uselessness.

I reckon a lot of 'protest' votes in the referendum were cast by people for whom 2020 looks a very long way away.

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The Tories will want Brexit to be done and dusted before facing ukip at the polls. They will want to have whatever Brexit looks like configured in a style to suit what they want - "Immigration Lite" to allow financial services passporting rather than face the risk of Farage getting close to the levers of power with an "Immigration Heavy" proposition.

That's my analysis, too.

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Has any pm who took over won the subsequent election if an election wasn't called?

Brown lost

Callaghan lost

Any more in the recent past?

Major won.

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If we don`t escape the EU then general elections will pointless as you`ll only be voting for who holds the rubber stamp.

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Thoughtful post. There is no chance of an early election. The conservatives are scared shitless even with the labour party in its present state.I give you some scenarios.

Lib Dems offer another referendum

Labour manifesto is Swiss model so trading but EU immigration policies

Conservatives - hardest to guess - depends upon new leader but will be weary of UKIP.

UKIP rapid exit

SNP remain in EU

1. Result is hung parliament with conservatives overall majority. Who would they go into coalition with ?

2. Result is small conservative majority with remainer having critical role.

3. Result is large conservative majority but they cannot deliver on their promises. Progress in negotiations is glacial. They cannot agree when is the right time to enact article 50. businesses move away from the UK and the conservatives are out of power for 20 years.

It also follows the longer the delay before the next election the more diverse the parties positions may be and the greater the likelihood that a non-leave party would be in power.

Squeeze

Real polictics are back with a vengeance!

Cameron has really fallen in the man-trap and pulled in his vile party with him. They are destined for years of civil war between Brexiters and Bremainers. Only the Brexiters have another home to go to but they now feel empowered to run their own party. Tory Bremainers have nowhere to go and are probably a near majority of Tory activists. No new leader would dare go to the polls to see Bremainers of all parties coalescing around, maybe the LibDems and resulting with an impossible hung parliament.

And lets not even talk about the Labour Party which is about to ditch a Eurosceptic leader in favour of David Milliblair to do what? Stand against the sovereign wish of the people? Hilarious.

EP

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Real polictics are back with a vengeance!

Hopefully, these "real politics" will not result in realpolitik?

Perhaps what is required is a break up of the outmoded political parties? Perhaps we can get to vote in national elections between a wider range of half-baked pseudo-ideologies?

Edited by A.steve

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Cameron has really fallen in the man-trap and pulled in his vile party with him. They are destined for years of civil war between Brexiters and Bremainers.

I suspect that the Conservatives will bounce out of this more quickly than you expect. The differences will remain but they're generally pragmatic enough to make some attempt at getting out of these internal holes. They'll never have complete stability as a result but do have a degree of resilience that the others don't.

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In policy terms it's very amusing (if it wasn't so very dangerous for Britain) to see both the Labour and Conservatives not really knowing whether to be a Bremain or a Brexit party and exemplified in the leadership contest of both parties.

It also neatly sums up the self serving political opportunism and lack of direction so prevalent in British politics these days - at least for those that hold sway in Parliament.

Through the ballot box and the referendum the British people have done everything feasible in their power to lead the way and to show them the way but even then the main parties don't grasp what to do. Madness.

The current leadership contests should be more about what are the proposed foundation stones for the Brexit negotiations and who has the best ideas for that and the route to take in achieving those objectives rather than anything else.

Edited by billybong

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