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TheCountOfNowhere

Does Anyone Think We'll See Another Uk Bank Run ?

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The $700Trillion derivative notional (source BIS, and that was about 6 years ago , now probably worse) debt-berg is teetering and tottering. How else could it be ,given the huge bets on rates, oil and currencies ?

It's like a wrecking ball in the zero sum game, as prices move one side wins and the other loses equally, and by its size will trigger margin calls which must be made whole or a domino of defaults ensues.

We can only guess how furiously they are paddling beneath the surface. At some point the surface will be broken and something will go down. IMO

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I considered this yesterday and contemplated getting some cash out, but then thought I pay for everything by card anyway so it would be a bit pointless. If the card system goes down we've got bigger things to worry about.

To answer your question, I'm going with HSBC based on absolutely nothing. This is like bingo, right?

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I took money out of West Bromwich and Chelsea BS 5 years ago, as I thought they were in danger.

The annoying thing is, since then they have offered a good interest rate because of the risk, but possibly been supported behind the scenes.

Can't see any of the really big uk banks going. Though maybe the co-op?

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Question is whether there are willing borrowers - that's what banks have to be concerned about, with market participants holding back from investment and deal making at high prices, worried about the future. I'm a willing borrower, if the proposition is at a value I think worth borrowing against. Eg a house.

The Brexit vote is also nothing like the financial crisis of 2008 – as Bank of England governor Mark Carney said on Friday, banks are now very well capitalised and can keep lending even under a much greater strain than this. “If you look at RBS it has a nearly £150bn liquidity book and a 90pc loan-to-deposit. Investors should not be concerned with balance sheet stability,” said Joseph Dickerson from Jefferies.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/27/panicking-investors-flee-bank-shares---but-european-politics-cou/

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No.

This week is a buying opportunity in stocks. I think the FTSE bottomed yesterday, or will do so this week, and I suspect 6,500 sooner than people realise.

Edit:

Was just in Tesco - every item I bought was 5p more expensive today than last week. Just saying.

Edited by The Masked Tulip

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Judging by the two letter I got this week from two banks reminding me of the FSCA limit of £75k per institution - I would say yes.

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I bought RBS shares twice today (for trading - done well on them).

I suspect we will see a recovery within a month.

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The Keynesian goons flooded the system with cash again but that hasn't stopped a huge sell-off in financials. As ever, derivatives are the big unknown.

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Does anyone think we'll see another UK bank run ?

If so, which bank?

Unlikely, as a google search for "uk bank run " has this very HPC thread itself at no. 5 :lol:

https://www.google.co.uk/search?sourceid=chrome-psyapi2&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8&q=uk%20bank%20run&oq=uk%20bank%20run%20&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l3j69i64l2.3286j0j8

Edited by Saving For a Space Ship

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Still say Yes.

Still Nationwide.

Why? Its a mutual - no easy access to more capital.

Its been writing too many crap loans in London/SE.

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Two down days of the ftse is all they could manage, hardly a panic or anywhere near a crash.

Looks just like a buying a dip in an uptrend.

The US markets appear to have hit 2030 on the S&P 500 as resistance and are now heading back down. Today will be very interesting for the markets generally.

If the Yanks can continue up then crisis over. If they head back down today then FTSE and other markets probably will go lower again this week - perhaps tomorrow - so just watching and waiting now.

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Italy eyes £40bn bank rescue as first Brexit domino falls.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/27/italy-eyes-40bn-bank-rescue-as-first-brexit-domino-falls/

Unlike the eurozone debt crisis in 2011-2012, there is no serious trouble yet in the sovereign debt markets. The ECB is effectively capping yields under quantitative easing.

The stress gauge in this episode is the health of the private banks. The Euro STOXX index of bank stocks has collapsed by half since last July, and is now probing depths seen in the white heat of the debt crisis. British bank shares have also plummeted since Brexit but this has no systemic implication so far. It chiefly reflects recession fears, and potential loss of access to the EU market for business.

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I think a bank run is highly unlikely and the BOE wiil step in to lend to any solvent bank if liquidity looks weak.

However, Co-op Bank and Shawbrooks may be finished. The former is in s parlous state due to pay losses and the latter looks like it might unravel because of its business model.

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Still say Yes.

Still Nationwide.

Why? Its a mutual - no easy access to more capital.

Its been writing too many crap loans in London/SE.

+1

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