Neverwhere Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 This morning's Treasury Select Committee: http://parliamentlive.tv/event/index/0a8c8218-16f6-407b-9920-924e02c752cf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InlikeFlynn Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 Very interesting. Thanks for the link. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slawek Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 This morning's Treasury Select Committee: http://parliamentlive.tv/event/index/0a8c8218-16f6-407b-9920-924e02c752cf Good. Thanks. It should be watched by Leavers to bring some reality to the discussion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dkujsbap Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 (edited) Can this be summarised for those of us that can't watch? Edit: Please! Edited June 28, 2016 by dkujsbap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wahoo Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 Watched first 40 minutes....really interesting. Thanks for link. In summary....looks like article 50 delayed until at least May next year....possibly longer due to elections in Germany and France. Also, expectation of full market access with free movement of labour. Banks also well capitalised to cope. Can someone explain the advantages of coming out....looks much the same to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slawek Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 Can someone explain the advantages of coming out....looks much the same to me. There is no logic here, just desire to show two fingers to the EU. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the gardener Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 Watched first 40 minutes....really interesting. Thanks for link. In summary....looks like article 50 delayed until at least May next year....possibly longer due to elections in Germany and France. Also, expectation of full market access with free movement of labour. Banks also well capitalised to cope. Can someone explain the advantages of coming out....looks much the same to me. That won't happen.If the street protests don't get things moving then it's only a matter of time before economic and migration related events kick it all off. The genie is out of the bottle. It cannot and will not be put back. The people have woken and realised they are strong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slawek Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 That won't happen. If the street protests don't get things moving then it's only a matter of time before economic and migration related events kick it all off. The genie is out of the bottle. It cannot and will not be put back. The people have woken and realised they are strong. Public opinion is very unstable thing. Wait when a recession starts, house prices drop etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrtickle Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 Was this session closed to the public? There's no-one sat behind, highly unusual. I would have thought it would be packed to the rafters? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the gardener Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 Public opinion is very unstable thing. Wait when a recession starts, house prices drop etc. Won't make a difference, in fact it'll make it worse - when you've lost your job then you've got lots of time on your hands to protest.On top of which you'll be angrier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Lorne Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 That won't happen. If the street protests don't get things moving then it's only a matter of time before economic and migration related events kick it all off. The genie is out of the bottle. It cannot and will not be put back. The people have woken and realised they are strong. ...May next year is rediculous ....we need the democratic process in place with the new prime minister ...and action .....in weeks .... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slawek Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 Won't make a difference, in fact it'll make it worse - when you've lost your job then you've got lots of time on your hands to protest. On top of which you'll be angrier. I agree that for some people that won't make a difference, those with nothing to lose or with hard core views. There is a big group of richer Leavers whose convictions will tested by unfolding events. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neverwhere Posted June 28, 2016 Author Share Posted June 28, 2016 Can this be summarised for those of us that can't watch? Edit: Please! I think different people would take different things away from it, and I am skipping over a lot so it's worth watching if you get a chance, but what stood out for me was the following: A plan for how we would like to exit and on what terms has to be devised before negotiations can get properly underway. (There appears not to be one at present.) It therefore makes sense not to trigger Article 50 (which has a two year built in time limit from the moment of activation) until after that work has already be done. As there is a lot of work to do that is likely to mean at least the new year, probably spring. Elections in France and Germany next year may also complicate the timeline. It may be misleading to look at stock market moves without also considering changes in exchange rates. From an external perspective falls have been somewhat sharper than they appear from an internal perspective. Boosts to exports from a cheaper pound may offset increased trading costs, but may also be limited due to the current global nature of supply chains. Changes to the amount of international businesses located inside the UK are likely to be incremental and ongoing for several years - manifesting in where firms decide to site expanded operations, or to manufacture new product lines, as and when these decisions present themselves - and the EU will be motivated to strike a deal which encourages that business to go to EU nations rather than the UK. Restrictions to free movement of both labour and students (many firms directly recruiting from UK universities) would impact on these decisions. John Mann (Labour) discussed the possibility of effectively only restricting the movements of low skilled individuals. (Presumably in both directions.) The sale of the Government's stake in RBS and Lloyds, and of the outstanding B&B loan book, seem likely to be delayed. I've tried to be even-handed with the above. If I've forgotten something important, or if I've misinterpreted any of the points raised, I'd welcome any corrections anyone wants to offer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neverwhere Posted June 28, 2016 Author Share Posted June 28, 2016 Watched first 40 minutes....really interesting. Thanks for link. In summary....looks like article 50 delayed until at least May next year....possibly longer due to elections in Germany and France. Also, expectation of full market access with free movement of labour. Banks also well capitalised to cope. Can someone explain the advantages of coming out....looks much the same to me. If - as seems likely - UK politicians of all stripes push for full market access and free movement of labour (the two of which go hand in hand from a European perspective) then what we will get is a continued need to fund the EU and abide by EU regulation, having given up all control (democratic or otherwise) over what that regulation actually is. This is not what Vote Leave campaigned on and there is no mandate for it, IMO. The question is, will they seek to acquire one? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dkujsbap Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 Thanks. Will try to watch! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neverwhere Posted June 28, 2016 Author Share Posted June 28, 2016 Was this session closed to the public? There's no-one sat behind, highly unusual. I would have thought it would be packed to the rafters? It was called at short notice so I suspect many simply didn't know it was occurring and were, in any case, distracted by events. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richmond Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 Watched first 40 minutes....really interesting. Thanks for link. In summary....looks like article 50 delayed until at least May next year....possibly longer due to elections in Germany and France. Also, expectation of full market access with free movement of labour. Banks also well capitalised to cope. Can someone explain the advantages of coming out....looks much the same to me. I guess we can engage the rest of the world and create trade agreements that benefit us without worrying about EU interference. Like Switzaland and China. I would spend as much time now as possible to get as many trade agreements in principle agreed before we start leave proceedings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neverwhere Posted June 28, 2016 Author Share Posted June 28, 2016 Thanks. Will try to watch! You're welcome. Might be worth sticking on in the background whilst engaged in other tasks. That said I'm sure there will be many more such committee meetings to watch in coming weeks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moesasji Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 I guess we can engage the rest of the world and create trade agreements that benefit us without worrying about EU interference. Like Switzaland and China. Thinking that Switzerland does not have to implement EU-law to obtain access to the single market is a fantasy.....and having been in China I doubt that is the model to implement for the UK. That is really not what low-paid people would have wished for when voting in the referendum. btw) An interesting read on the Norway and Swiss relationship to the EU from some time ago and what it would mean for the UK: https://www.cer.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/attachments/pdf/2012/buchan_swiss_norway_11oct12-6427.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neverwhere Posted June 28, 2016 Author Share Posted June 28, 2016 Thinking that Switzerland does not have to implement EU-law to obtain access to the single market is a fantasy.....and having been in China I doubt that is the model to implement for the UK. That is really not what low-paid people would have wished for when voting in the referendum. btw) An interesting read on the Norway and Swiss relationship to the EU from some time ago and what it would mean for the UK: https://www.cer.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/attachments/pdf/2012/buchan_swiss_norway_11oct12-6427.pdf Very interesting, thanks for posting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richmond Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 Thinking that Switzerland does not have to implement EU-law to obtain access to the single market is a fantasy.....and having been in China I doubt that is the model to implement for the UK. That is really not what low-paid people would have wished for when voting in the referendum. btw) An interesting read on the Norway and Swiss relationship to the EU from some time ago and what it would mean for the UK: https://www.cer.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/attachments/pdf/2012/buchan_swiss_norway_11oct12-6427.pdf Agree, not what people wanted. But the question was what benefit would we get as an EEA member over full membership. As I understand, EEA members can form their own trade agreements with other nations and benefit from being in the EEA. This could be seen as an advantage to being in the EEA. Not sure it outweighs the disadvantages, but it is an advantage. Unless I am mistaken? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moesasji Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 Agree, not what people wanted. But the question was what benefit would we get as an EEA member over full membership. As I understand, EEA members can form their own trade agreements with other nations and benefit from being in the EEA. This could be seen as an advantage to being in the EEA. Not sure it outweighs the disadvantages, but it is an advantage. Unless I am mistaken? Your right, but if you follow the model from Norway which is the biggest member of the EEA it effectively means that it comes at the price of having to implement EU-law without having much say in the laws itself. So effectively the democratic deficit would get bigger not smaller. Probably the real hope for the UK would be that an EU with two tiers emerges as I doubt the Swiss model would be on the table. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 I guess we can engage the rest of the world and create trade agreements that benefit us without worrying about EU interference. Like Switzaland and China. I would spend as much time now as possible to get as many trade agreements in principle agreed before we start leave proceedings. I would imagine it would be hard/impossible to progress any third party agreements before concluding an agreement with the EU; as there will inevitable be many interactions between them and the EU deal especially if it includes access to the single market.. We also will need to overcome the fact that we no longer have the expert capability required to progress trade agreements. Once both of these problems have been addressed, we then have to let the negotiations take their natural course be that 5.10.15 years or never. Of course we could rush them through, if we were happy to accept a succession of one sided agreements that would disadvantage us for the foreseeable future. All in all its doable, but god knows how long it would take to offset any significant loss of EU trade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neverwhere Posted July 6, 2016 Author Share Posted July 6, 2016 Yesterday's Treasury Committee on 'The UK's future economic relationship with the European Union': http://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/cb083c53-3998-4f3a-8eca-e114e3dbdf0b Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Yesterday's Treasury Committee on 'The UK's future economic relationship with the European Union': http://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/cb083c53-3998-4f3a-8eca-e114e3dbdf0b Good post, thanks. If we can safely assume the witnesses know what they are talking about, I think this session covers or at least touches upon the major Pros and Cons of the decision to Brexit. To summarise: Pros - None Cons - We are F**ked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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