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Honestly, Who Will Buy A House Now?


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A house is a house. Falling in love with a particular one and calling it a forever house is nuts and very egotistical. Another one will be along.

Its deepwave telly programming simple as. That box drills stuff into your subconscious as 10,000 frames per second and there could be anything in there, we really don't know its true power, other than to witness loads of individuals all refer to a cr@ppy DEBTladen pile of bricks as "forever home". They must just all stumbled across those words themselves I guess.

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This idea of buying a "forever home" in a declining market doesn't really make sense to me. Say you were looking to buy now, didn't care about the economy at all, as the house is perfect. Why wouldn't you wait 4-6 months and just buy an even better & bigger "forever home" ? If the market is declining, surely this makes more sense. For instance, from a 3-bed to a 4-bed, the cost will be the same, and live there for 30 years.

Because most people don't believe that the housing market ever declines. A small blip now and then maybe, but not long term.

The worst part is that this is a self-reinforcing belief. Up to a point, of course. We need a re-educational crash badly.

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A house is a house. Falling in love with a particular one and calling it a forever house is nuts and very egotistical. Another one will be along.

To many people I think it has just become shorthand for somewhere they can realistically see themselves staying long term, while kids turn into adults. It won't necessarily mean 'perfect' or 'dream' house.

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Man with house says...

House prices need to correct 50%

The emperor has no clothes.

Lets compare 2007 with 2016.

Here's a builders share price as of yesterday

Cl-MQKYWAAMeOeH.jpg

2007 prices dropped 22% before being propped up.

IRs now at 0.5%,

2016 share price dropped off a cliff...

Nothing points to a 5% drop in house prices. Nothing.

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If credit is available, people will buy buy buy.

Agreed. In my real world experience the majority of people I know have no true control over how much they can afford, our school system ensures we are financial retards for life and have to rely on our friendly expert banking system to tell us how much DEBT we qualify for, we can then proudly tell all our freinds that the bank has said we can borrow £xxx,xxx because we've got a high credit (aka DEBTslave) rating.

Of close friends who have bought in the last few years , I only know one couple whose DEBT take-on and subsequent house purchase was NOT determined by the maximum amount of borrowing they qualified for according to their friendly financial advisor (DEBTdealer).

The same way most people see price as price and find it rude to haggle this is entirely by design of an indoctrination system which teaches the pleb to know your place in the hierarchy, keep your head down, work hard, take on a mortgage, don't ask questions, trust the experts, respect your superiors in the pecking order Sir, Lord, Prince, even the Fat Controller ffs we are swimming against the tide from the beginning.

This is not a sympathy for DEBTjunkies piece Venger so please save the lecture.

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Around here the 'indoctrinated' on the owner side only known house prices rise to new peaks each month, apart from a wobble in 2008 and half way into 2009, before racing to new peaks each year.

I also just recoil from the assumption of superiority, from those who see others as indoctrinated by a so-called system. We are the system, each and every one of us. Including everyone who says you can't go wrong with property, and if you buy forever home now it doesn't matter over 25 years what prices do. They're not the banks or some big-bad overriding 'system'. Especially when the 'indoctrinated' are the ones sat on mad gainz, enjoying all the advantages that come from homeownership (no S21s and so far, mad hpi+++). Stomach for HPC to finally prove it. Sometimes I think hpcers (renters and would-be upsizers) need to see another doubling of prices to finally get them to think of themselves, and their own needs, before being so eager to offer up excuses for everyone on owner side. Including all the ones who could sell now... owner outrights at £650K value and £1.8M oldies, smiling in Daily Telegraph about 'what it is worth.'

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"Get more sense out of MSEer at times, including this when I look back. Someone having seen their dream home in 2013, and wanted it there and then. Couldn't sell house (3 other terraces on the road up for sale), so rented it out and got bomad help for the dream house. Now that terrace is back to market, Sold STC at £165K, which is £4K less than they bought it for in 2006 - although I am minded to believe they priced it to get immediate interest, and that it might sell for more."

Yeah and on the other side of your arguement a "Dream House"...sorry thats emo shite..a house I liked, in 2009 and was on for 290k and couldn't afford it at the time, it recently sold for just under 525k. So maybe if I hadn't waited for le crash I would have been sitting on a rise of quarter of a million, lets hope that 50% crash comes along. Innit

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Feel free to add your links. You missed the last major opportunity 6-7 years ago

Funnny...so, sold in 2007...bought gold...sold gold...invested in stock market...sold stock market..put in savings accounts at 3%,

Opportunity to sit in an asset that could destroy your solvency.

You're having a laugh RK and you know it,.

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Lets compare 2007 with 2016.

Here's a builders share price as of yesterday

Cl-MQKYWAAMeOeH.jpg

2007 prices dropped 22% before being propped up.

IRs now at 0.5%,

2016 share price dropped off a cliff...

Nothing points to a 5% drop in house prices. Nothing.

Chart I linked to does.

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This is a great strategy for losing a huge chunk of your lifetime earnings. When you're 60 years old, and have 10 good years left, do you want to spend half that time working because you couldn't wait a year to buy a house in a crashing market and ended up having to postpone retirement by 5 years?

They're called "forever" homes because they take forever to pay for.

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Funnny...so, sold in 2007...bought gold...sold gold...invested in stock market...sold stock market..put in savings accounts at 3%,

Opportunity to sit in an asset that could destroy your solvency.

You're having a laugh RK and you know it,.

Sorry to disappoint you. But no.

I am interested in the serious business of house prices, the economy, asset prices, macro developments & risk as well as (and more importantly imo) the social impacts of policy.

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Yeah and on the other side of your arguement a "Dream House"...sorry thats emo shite..a house I liked, in 2009 and was on for 290k and couldn't afford it at the time, it recently sold for just under 525k. So maybe if I hadn't waited for le crash I would have been sitting on a rise of quarter of a million, lets hope that 50% crash comes along. Innit

So buy now if you expect more of the same HPI. With your view of no matter what happens, even HPC, because of '25 years'. I mean prices are only £1/4m more expensive. My view is it's more risky now, but yours is 25 years dandy.

Because a "forever house" might only come around (depending on the area) once every few years.Don't forget your idea of a forever house might be a 4 bedroom 1980's box whereas someone elses might be a double fronted victorian detached property. If you are going to stay in a property for 25 years crash or no crash at least you'll be happy.

Could well be dandy. Seems to me the renter-savers are, as a group - so very weak - no wonder the authorities can QE and FLS and 0.5% and double down BTL it immediately after 2008 (with willing BTLers of course). Even some bankers laughing their heads off at what renter side willing to put up with. I'm not surprised.

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  • 433 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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