Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  

Debt Issuance - How Will The Markets React? - 5Th July Is Key Date

Recommended Posts

First post in a long while...

But very relevant to how the markets will react and what that will do to the debate.

The Government issues debt and a calendar of all the planned issuance dates can be found here


It shows the next planned debt issuance by the DMO will be on tuesday 5th July.

At that point the market will start to tell the government what it thinks. At the moment HMG is proposing to borrow at 1.5% for 5 years. Whether there will be takers is a key question?

Now set aside that they could borrow the money from HSBC more cheaply...

Whether Mr Carney will have to use his £250bn to buy them is another question... and before changes to the Bank Return we would have known within a week... now it is hidden from the people. More on that topic here:


So we won't know who buys but we will know how easily the government can get the debt away.

So look for some nerves in the market (and some brown trouser moments in government) in the days running up to the 5th July. If liquidity becomes a real problem then we might even see the issuance cancelled... (apologies for the scatological metaphor).

If the market isn't keen to buy UK Government debt then I think we'll see the pound in all sorts of pressure, we may need that emergency budget that Mr Osborne has gone quiet about, and perhaps, we'll see some mortgage deals withdrawn, and the first signs of winter for anyone with big mortgages.


Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

Its hard to think.

At some point the market is going to say - Fck you.

The Gits have already had a few stutters.

Brexit is not going to make Gilts a lot less attractive.

I mean, anyone who bought Gilts offer sub-2% yield has just lost 10% of the capital.

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

Thank you for this post Optobear. I haven't been around these parts for a good while myself. It's where I once came for information that appeared well in advance of when it did in the media explained in a way that I could understand. I have not taken so much interest in finance in recent years and thought I'd have a look around to see if China and Japan are still the major foreign holders of Gilts and couldn't find that information anywhere anymore. I had no idea that the Bank Return had changed. If you follow up on this post I will be looking out for it.

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

I was looking at this myself on Friday . Not sure what the impact will be but with all the uncertainty it is definitely worth keeping an eye on.

My view is that the price will be a little higher but the auction will be fully subscribed.

Worth keeping a look on the Gilt futures markets too and the price to insure against default on Gilts. I expect that these will show the future direction.

Still, with £1.5 trillion of debt we don't have much to worry about.

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   296 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?

      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.