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Apologies If This Has Been Posted Before

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I haven’t seen it before - It’s a good article – not sure about the supply side of things – I have noted in my own areas that there is a lot less properties for sale now than in September – although I have not been looking at flats

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I had this link sent to me today. I apologies if it's already been posted but I haven't had chance to go through the whole lot of posts for 2 days - got loads of tat to wrap.

Gill

http://www.everyinvestor.co.uk/timArticles....asp?no_pop_t=1

And in a rare glimmer of journalistic honesty, one of the first ever articles I've seen which is overtly bearish, thus:

But the impact on the overall housing market of a price decline in flats, mainly showing up in a sharp cut in asking prices for new-build, will probably be very patchy. London, with a huge swathe of glitzy waterside flats being built, looks vulnerable, and after the current round of City bonuses has fed through to top-end prices, could be hard hit. Cities with fewer mega-flat developments are likely to suffer less.

I suggest you pay no attention to the chorus of estate agents and popular newspapers who will try to talk up the market next year. For the next few years, it's unlikely the UK housing market is going anywhere- the best you can hope for is sideways.

VP

Edited by VacantPossession

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This quote makes restful and pleasing reading on the night before Christmas Eve, more warming to the heart than a glass of fine vintage port:

In any other market, nobody would spend more than ten minutes reaching the obvious conclusion: rising supply has already started to affect prices and will clearly go on doing so given that another rise in completions is due this year.
The only reason we even think it's possible house prices can keep on rising is that we want to believe it.
All the facts suggest otherwise. And remember that all this takes no account of the supply-side measures Mr. Prescott has been beavering away at, including 'affordable housing', land release and planning system change, all designed to increase the number of dwellings being built. The least anyone expects out of this is an additional 10,000 units a year by 2007.

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Supply is rising

Now for supply. In 1990-1, 129,000 houses/flats were started and 160,000 finished - the tail-end of the last boom. In 1995-6, 133,000 were started and 155,000 completed. In 1995-6, 149,000 were started and only 141,000 completed. In 2004-5, 175,000 were started and 155,000 completed.

In any other market, nobody would spend more than ten minutes reaching the obvious conclusion: rising supply has already started to affect prices and will clearly go on doing so given that another rise in completions is due this year.

Considering it was the whole crux of his argument you'd have thought he could have got it right :rolleyes:

Edited by Catch22

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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