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scaramanga

Predictions 2006

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1. After march we see 1% monthly drops on hpi

2. One of the bigger ea chains shuts down

3. Gold rallies high early part of year then tanks

4. inflation bounces between 2.1-2.9%

5. Interest rates stay were they are 4.50%

6. Footsie reaches 5900 by year end

7.Tories take a commanding lead in opinion polls,Cameron becomes acceptable to the masses

8.The credit squeeze really starts to take hold

9. Miss-selling accusations against at least one major player in the btl lending field

10. Spurs to finish 5th and qualify for europe

Thanks to all for a rollercoaster year of debate and informative arguments have a good xmas,me im off to Gambia for a couple of weeks did the same last year sure beats gret and wet days

Scaramanga

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1. After march we see 1% monthly drops on hpi

2. One of the bigger ea chains shuts down

3. Gold rallies high early part of year then tanks

4. inflation bounces between 2.1-2.9%

5. Interest rates stay were they are 4.50%

6. Footsie reaches 5900 by year end

7.Tories take a commanding lead in opinion polls,Cameron becomes acceptable to the masses

8.The credit squeeze really starts to take hold

9. Miss-selling accusations against at least one major player in the btl lending field

10. Spurs to finish 5th and qualify for europe

Thanks to all for a rollercoaster year of debate and informative arguments have a good xmas,me im off to Gambia for a couple of weeks did the same last year sure beats gret and wet days

Scaramanga

It's my matey from Xchurch ! Cameron's only job outside politics was spin doctor for Carlton Communications who provide you with many of the garbage TV programs on ITV. I still think he might have a lot of the Tony Blair about him - all style and no substance. TB is genius at winning elections but not much else. Probably Cameron is the same.

FTSE100 - I am hoping for 6200 by year and even more significantly 10,000 by year end for the FTSE250 which had been consistently out performing the FTSE100 by a wide margin for years.

Edited by penbat1

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1. Lower for most of the year, possibly picking up pace at the year end.

2. Several smaller firms go to the wall, larger ones survive but with redundancies.

5. Interest rates to stay within 4-5% band

7. Tony B Liar to be shipped off to the Hague to face war crimes charges.

10. Abramovic to be jailed on tax evasion charges, Chelsea go bankrupt & Spurs win the league. :D:D:D:D

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11. Around May at least one religious group will publicly predict a massive crime against humanity scheduled to happen on June 6th (06/06/06)! Mark my words...

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1) Widespread breaking of Browns economic Hubris: acceptance that the 'golden rule' has been broken and a further re-calculation (downward) of UK's growth and (upward) of debt. Possibility that his claim to PM crown turns sour and is ousted from chancellorship.

2) Significant short-fall in Tax reciepts leading to additional taxes, rather than further stealth ones thebig four will be hit direct: NI, Income (Higher Rate), VAT and corporation tax. Base rate will stay same.

3) Widespread re-negotiation of Pension schemes 5-10 blue chip companies follow Rentokils example. Re-negotiation of Public sector schemes based on retirement at 60.

4) Q1-Q3: Property similar outcome as '05 => -5% HPI hidden as 0% due to further extension of new-build off-contract discounts. Q4: widespread understanding and acknowledgment that the HPI indicies have been distorted over the last few years due to un-published discounting/incentivisation.

5) Late '06: "City Lifestyle appartments" become a complete swear word, recognition that re-sell value is 20% less than new '03 'valuations'. Only new sales proceeding are to housing associations through huge discount bulk purchase.

6) With poor sign-up figures for their 'property education' courses and diminishing returns through their finders fees; Inside Track determines that their is no business case for their 2 hr free intro session undertaken at s*****y hotels. The company ceases trading leaving many 'armchair' property investors with nightmare loss-making portfolios with troublesome tenants.

7) The attention demands of leaky taps and broken door handles on city lifestyle appartments in outer Middlesbough drive many Surrey based property investors to suicide.

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1. GDP goes negative by 2nd Q

2. Sterling crisis in March (world loses confidence in Brown's economic miracle of the past 10 years).

3. House prices begin to slip after the Spring bounce fails to materialize.

4. Average house price down 30% from peak in early 2005 by late summer.

5. BTL panic selling causes frenzy at end of 3rd Q leading house prices down another 10% by Christmas.

6. Things turn ugly in 2007 as houseprices continue to drop until they reach 50% of the previous peak in accordance with the pattern since 1945. Thats a drop of about 65% folks!

Edited by Realistbear

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1. CEO of RICS resigns after proven valuation corruption and price fixing with developers.

2. At least three chains of EA's bite the dust. Foxtons goes spectacularly bankrupt. Mini prices plummet on Autotrader.

3. IR's at least 5%

4. Bliar resigns leaving power to Brown exactly in time for a recession. Tony Cameron (or is that David Blair) drops back in polls after initial enthusiasm from Blue Rinses folds and they realise he is a clone.

5. Shared Ownership gets a drubbing from the Daily Mail and the whole scheme collapses.

6. TTRTR exits BTL quietly, dusts himself off and starts buying "art".

7. BTL phenomenon finally gets thumbs down in all the papers and miss-selling court actions reach a pitch exceeding that of Endowment Mortgages in the 1990's.

8. BTL becomes a dirty word. Thousands of "innocent" BTL'ers tell sob stories to Times and Torygraph.

9. Independent writes articles saying I told you so after years of encouragement, claiming it knew the whole BTL thing was doomed in the first place.

10. Solicitors go under in orgy of conveyancing do-it-yourself.

11. Tesco sets up online Estate Agency, holiday company and swallows up two major supermarkets.

12. The Welsh harp making industry will hit rock bottom after a glut of subsidised harps.

13. A third of the trendy restaurants in London will go bankrupt.

14. A third of the trendy restaurants in Brighton will go bankrupt.

15. Half the bespoke kitchen designers in Tunbridge Wells will go bankrupt.

16. Makeover programmes will mutate into "how to avoid repossession" programmes.

17. A motorway will be proposed in Cornwall, thereby ruining it.

18. London workers finally realise the total futility of commuting and make a stand for working from home.

19. Banks and Building Societies will continue to make exhorbitant profits and deliver ever-declining customer service.

20. BT will win the crown as the worst corporation on earth.

21. Spanish Costa's will become ghost-towns of empty concrete and unsold "dream" homes.

22. HPC website will collapse under weight of new logins.

23. Brainclamp will blame everything on immigration (no harm meant BC, just a gentle rib).

VP

Edited by VacantPossession

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btl to go tits up in the summer.

Ir's to be 4.0% end of year

Indices to turn negative in Sept

Unemployment/redundancies to be a staple in the news.

Debt programmes on news and TV programmes.

and Spurs to finish 4th and in the CL (Scaramanga you lot on Glory-Glory.net need to be more positive - in the mighty Jol we trust B) )

I'm the Shelfside Tottenham :)

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informative arguments

Scaramanga

2006 I believe we will see interest rates reduced by 0.5% and inflation back down near to the 2% BOE mark – because of low IR houses will go up in price by 10% YOY – at the very worst it will be another year much like this one – although I think we will see some trouble coming from a slowdown in America

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My predictions for 2006:

- IRs to stay within .5% of where they are now, i.e. between 4 and 5%.

- CPI (clueless pretend inflation) to stay between 2 and 2.5%.

- Wage (i.e. true) inflation up to around 5 and 6%.

- HPI to be slightly negative in nominal terms, e.g. around -2% by the end of 06.

- Economy fraying around the edges but apparently "still in good shape"

- PSBR increasing steadily.

- GDP growth between 1 and 2% by the end of the year.

- media contains mixture of bearish and bullish stories in equal proportions.

- "soft landing achieved" to be believed by more and more bears.

- more stories on HPC.co.uk of bears giving up

In fact I would not be surprised if the above carries on right into 2007!

But don't think I've turned into a bull. The crash I think will come in 2008-10.

frugalista

Edited by frugalista

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In no particular order .....

Iran will be attacked by America or Israel or both

Further Islamic Terrorist acts as large as, if not bigger than 911

Even greater volatility in Oil Prices/Supply

Saddam will be given a minor sentence , exiled and live out his life in luxery like Idi Amin

Bird Flu makes the transition to humans and first (fatal) cases appear in UK

More natural disasters both in developing and developed world

The rich will get richer and the poor will get poorer etc etc

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1 uk house prices drop 10%-15% in year

2 irs drop to 4% by year end

3 unemployment continues to rise

4 blair still pm

5 oil prices stabilise by mid year at $40-$50 per barrel

6 chealsea win the treble ( not my team by the way, but they look unbeatable)

7 tories consistently lead labour in the polls

8 john prescott finally passes the 11 plus, only to find out that there are no more grammar schools left.

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11. Around May at least one religious group will publicly predict a massive crime against humanity scheduled to happen on June 6th (06/06/06)! Mark my words...

Oh dear - that's my 39th birthday!! :angry:

:lol:

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my 2p worth.

1)fed keeps raising IR's

2)stock markets FALL(when everybody expects them to rise)......except asia.

3)SERIOUS dollar weakness

4)WAR with IRAN....early spring looks likely.end of march I think.

5)HPC really gets going........blamed on the war of course.

6)property programmes subtly replaced by "flog it" programmes

7)Tony blair resigns

...plus big brother house firebombed by fed-up viewers wanting to see some REAL action!!

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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