Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[Futuroid]

6 minutes ago, TheBlueCat said:

I don't see what you're complaining about. This is basically a second EU referendum at this point, isn't that what you wanted?

I'm not complaining - more pointing out that May is a duplicitous, slippery opportunist who wants an election to shore up the Tory party before the $hit hits the fan.

But it is likely to turn into a second referendum and I'm happy about that.

[ccc]

This isn't a second EU referendum. Its basic politics. Those in power are doing what they can to ensure they remain in power for as long as possible.

[Errol]

2 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

But it is likely to turn into a second referendum and I'm happy about that.

The Referendum broken down on a constituency basis would have resulted in a 200+ seat majority for 'Leave'.

I think more will vote 'Leave' now, particularly if people get the idea that various people are trying to prevent Brexit.

Edited April 18, 2017 by Errol

[kzb]

8 minutes ago, Errol said:

Not going to happen. Conservatives will have 100+ seat majority.

Remember that the Referendum broken down on a constituency basis would have resulted in a 200+ seat majority for 'Leave'.

That was then, this is now.

48% of voters voted Remain.  If only three quarters of those voted LibDem it would be a landslide for LibDem.

Also, I was asking above, are most Tory MPs -who are predominantly Remainers - really going to stand on a platform of Hard Brexit?  Or is this going to split the Tory party?

[TheBlueCat]

3 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

May is a duplicitous, slippery opportunist

She's a politician, they're all like that. It's like complaining that the sky is blue!

[kzb]

2 minutes ago, ccc said:

This isn't a second EU referendum. Its basic politics. Those in power are doing what they can to ensure they remain in power for as long as possible.

I suspect you are right but it could backfire on them badly.  They are looking at the polls and the state of the opposition and assuming they will walk it.  I don't think it will be quite so easy given Brexit is such a major issue.

[ccc]

1 minute ago, kzb said:

I suspect you are right but it could backfire on them badly.  They are looking at the polls and the state of the opposition and assuming they will walk it.  I don't think it will be quite so easy given Brexit is such a major issue.

Indeed - who knows. Would be very surprising if they don't annihilate Labour though.

[Futuroid]

11 minutes ago, Errol said:

The Referendum broken down on a constituency basis would have resulted in a 200+ seat majority for 'Leave'.

I think more will vote 'Leave' now, particularly if people get the idea that various people are trying to prevent Brexit.

As recently as last week, private polling (paid for by the Tories) showed they could lose all the seats Cameron gained from the Lib Dems in 2015 in London and the South:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-polling-votes-mps-elections-lose-to-liberal-democrat-labour-jeremy-corbyn-theresa-may-lynton-a7669211.html

Much of the Labour vote in northern England is tribal in nature, they could not conceive of voting Tory.

[kzb]

3 minutes ago, ccc said:

Indeed - who knows. Would be very surprising if they don't annihilate Labour though.

Corbyn is a proper socialist.  Something the Labour party was supposed to stand for.  A record number of people have joined Labour under his leadership.

There are lot of issues aside from Brexit, the NHS, housing, education, transport, all a shambles under this government. 

I was reading just now there is also the election expenses scandal, which could result in by-elections in many Tory seats.  They could be simply getting in first.

[ZeroSumGame]

12 minutes ago, kzb said:

 

Also, I was asking above, are most Tory MPs -who are predominantly Remainers - really going to stand on a platform of Hard Brexit?  Or is this going to split the Tory party?

Well Theresa May campaigned REMAIN just 12 months ago.

So I would expect most politicians to throw their 'beliefs' into the garbage can in order to win another 5 years.

Again, 12 months ago, there were > 450 REMAIN supporting MPs. 

[Futuroid]

Do you think - I mean, I know I'm being silly here, but bear with me - do you think the Tories are likely to share their Brexit strategy, and their "red lines" for negotiations as part of their election manifesto?

Or will it still be top secret / not in existence.

[TheBlueCat]

3 minutes ago, kzb said:

I was reading just now there is also the election expenses scandal, which could result in by-elections in many Tory seats.  They could be simply getting in first.

That's my guess too. Faced with a slew of by-elections and death by a thousand cuts she decided a snap GE was better. This time around, all the parties (because they all do the same thing - funny that the electoral commission chose only to investigate the Tories) will be a lot more careful about accounting for campaigning spend I expect.

[Shamus]

Brexit - ha ha the Tories have bottled it.

It was always going to be Hard Brexit or No Brexit.  Hard Brexit being too unpalatable to most of the establishment (and most of the UK workers). 

Europe have got us by the balls and they know it!

[kzb]

It's incredible though isn't it?  We have 18 months to negotiate Brexit from end March.

We now do not know who will be leading the UK negotiation.  Brexit negotiation is effectively On Hold until after 8th June.

[casual_squash]

17 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

As recently as last week, private polling (paid for by the Tories) showed they could lose all the seats Cameron gained from the Lib Dems in 2015 in London and the South:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-polling-votes-mps-elections-lose-to-liberal-democrat-labour-jeremy-corbyn-theresa-may-lynton-a7669211.html

Much of the Labour vote in northern England is tribal in nature, they could not conceive of voting Tory.

That tribal vote is weakening . Labour lost the coulby council seat last week to the Tories. First time ever. 

Speaking as a fellow northerner, with enough rabble rousing the Tories have a good shout of getting a significant Brexit voting, old school labour vote out for them.  

 

 

 

 

Edited April 18, 2017 by casual_squash

[Futuroid]

1 minute ago, casual_squash said:

That tribal vote is weakening . Labour lost the coulby council seat last week to the Tories. First time ever. 

Speaking as a fellow northerner, with enough rabble rousing the Tories have a good shout of getting out a significant Brexit voting, old school labour vote out for them. 

I think you are underestimating the power of a "Corbyn digs coal" campaign slogan!

[casual_squash]

3 minutes ago, Shamus said:

Brexit - ha ha the Tories have bottled it.

It was always going to be Hard Brexit or No Brexit.  Hard Brexit being too unpalatable to most of the establishment (and most of the UK workers). 

Europe have got us by the balls and they know it!

I see it as the other way. 

The EU we're counting on internal strife to ruin Brexit. Many said the morning of the referendum result, Brexits best chance of succeeding was an early election. I imagine this will focus minds in the EU on how serious may is on this now.  

 

 

[Shamus]

2 minutes ago, casual_squash said:

I see it as the other way. 

The EU we're counting on internal strife to ruin Brexit. Many said the morning of the referendum result, Brexits best chance of succeeding was an early election. I imagine this will focus minds in the EU on how serious may is on this now.  

 

 

I'll like to believe you - but politicians being politicians ....  Perhaps I am just being a tad too cynical in my old age

Whatever happens post June 8th it would be good to revisit page 661 of this thread to see who was right!

[thecrashingisles]

1 minute ago, hotairmail said:

Events have created a whole new layer of dimensions of misery and conjecture for the Remainers.

May knows it will only get worse from here.  She faced the prospect of being ground down by the EU in negotiations and decided to bail.

[casual_squash]

1 minute ago, Shamus said:

I'll like to believe you - but politicians being politicians ....  Perhaps I am just being a tad too cynical in my old age

Whatever happens post June 8th it would be good to revisit page 661 of this thread to see who was right!

Indeed.

Put it this way, I think many in Parliament simply held their nose and voted for May to trigger article 50. 

The real decision isn't for two years yet, when they'll be asked again to back whatever has been negotiated and vote to leave the EU. As Parliament stands, it wouldn't pass. 

The bottom line is Teresa needs a bigger majority to stand a chance in hell. It was said the morning of the referendum and it's still true today.  

 

[thecrashingisles]

Just now, hotairmail said:

Did she tell you that?

She communicates in code by blinking during her regular hostage videos.

[thecrashingisles]

Just now, hotairmail said:

I thought her hair was performing semaphore earlier.

  I don't know what's going on with her hair.  It was quite stylish for a while but recently it's like a Lego figure.

[Futuroid]

 

[rollover]

29 minutes ago, hotairmail said:

Events have created a whole new layer of dimensions of misery and conjecture for the Remainers.

Are you ready?

[Democorruptcy]

20 hours ago, Futuroid said:

I'd have thought it would be obvious. 

The Netherlands has almost exactly the same level of per capita immigration as the UK. It is also in the EU. Yet wage growth is positive compared to the UK.

Sweden actually has much higher levels of immigration than the UK, and is also in the EU. Yet wage growth is one of the highest.

Proof surely that the ills of the UK lie at home with it's government and not abroad.

Your own government has been ******ing things up. Not the bogeyman, not the immigrants, not the EUrocrats. HMG. 

I've saved the best till last. With Brexit you've given them carte blanche to really start punishing the proles 

Well I suppose we all look at things differently.

I could see why Germany and France (Euro) might want to stay in but it looked like the UK had nothing to lose by leaving. 

Surely lots more EU countries should be doing better in that chart if the EU is so good for them