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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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52 minutes ago, slawek said:

The US doesn't care, it was and still is very arrogant. It treats others as tools, use them and then dump them if not needed anymore. There is no a global version of the special relationship. The UK simply offered to transfer their nuclear sub technology to Australia, which was in interest of the US. Nothing more, nothing less. 

Trade deal with UK is not a priority for Biden, Boris Johnson accepts

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-joe-biden-trade-b1923660.html

The importance of trade deals is overstated. China built up its economic position trading mainly on WTO terms.

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All of this Rambo nonsense makes me laugh.

The US doesn't need French bases in Dijbouti because it has its own base there. Get kicked out ? Don't make me laugh. The Cubans have been trying to kick the US out of Gitmo for years. Good luck with that. The US wouldn't be investing the best part of a billion in the base there if they though there was any chance of them needing to leave.

The US doesn't need French help in the Pacific. If it did then it would have partnered the French instead of the Australians. It also probably sees Aus as a more reliable partner, as the French have a habit of going it alone at crucial moments. Not what you need in an ally. There is a deeper collaboration between the US and the UK/Aus/Canada/NZ that goes beyond the minor spats between politicians that are for public consumption. That collaboration has lasted the best part of 70 years. The Americans have more than enough hardware, they don't need French stuff. They probably have  about 10 carrier battle groups, so one French aircraft carrier and a sub barely shows up on the radar. They have loads of bases all over the Pacific and are building more in places like Micronesia and PNG.

The sub agreement with Aus is probably as much about wanting more bases in that area of the world that can service US ships as it is about US hardware sales. The French have no choice but to sound off about it. There's an election coming up and the French politicians have to be seen to be supporting French workers. Make the election all about the big bad US and their nasty tactics rather than about how crap the French government has been over the past 4 years, or how poor they have been at executing the sub deal.

As for Brexit, I am sure it didn't really figure that much in American thinking. The US would have assessed it on the strategic benefit to the US and not much else. But it is a possibility for the UK to forge greater ties with countries outside of Europe, so anything that allows that is surely positive from a Brexit perspective, even if it does occur by accident rather than design.

 

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42 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

The importance of trade deals is overstated. China built up its economic position trading mainly on WTO terms.

That was an example showing that there is no "special relationship" between the UK and the US.

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4 minutes ago, slawek said:

That was an example showing that there is no "special relationship" between the UK and the US.

I wonder where the special relationship was when China tore up its Hong Kong agreements with UK so publicly not so long ago, and Boris could do nothing about it like a limp D$¥k that he is

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11 hours ago, thecrashingisles said:

If the US doesn't have the intention of relegating its relationship with France or taking France down a peg, why has it handled this deal in the way that it has and turned it into the beginnings of a global version of the special relationship?

So once again, geopolitical warfare with Europe.

You really seem quite happy that your country is engaged in this stuff with its neighbours. I wonder, why?

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11 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

Not "with Europe" - the UK is part of Europe.

Is the EU not engaged in geopolitical warfare with Russia?

Why do you always answer questions with questions? Is that your way of avoiding?

Is the UK now involved in geopolitical warfare with its neighbours? That is what you keep insinuating.

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5 hours ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

All of this Rambo nonsense makes me laugh.

The US doesn't need French bases in Dijbouti because it has its own base there. Get kicked out ? Don't make me laugh. The Cubans have been trying to kick the US out of Gitmo for years. Good luck with that. The US wouldn't be investing the best part of a billion in the base there if they though there was any chance of them needing to leave.

The US doesn't need French help in the Pacific. If it did then it would have partnered the French instead of the Australians. It also probably sees Aus as a more reliable partner, as the French have a habit of going it alone at crucial moments. Not what you need in an ally. There is a deeper collaboration between the US and the UK/Aus/Canada/NZ that goes beyond the minor spats between politicians that are for public consumption. That collaboration has lasted the best part of 70 years. The Americans have more than enough hardware, they don't need French stuff. They probably have  about 10 carrier battle groups, so one French aircraft carrier and a sub barely shows up on the radar. They have loads of bases all over the Pacific and are building more in places like Micronesia and PNG.

The sub agreement with Aus is probably as much about wanting more bases in that area of the world that can service US ships as it is about US hardware sales. The French have no choice but to sound off about it. There's an election coming up and the French politicians have to be seen to be supporting French workers. Make the election all about the big bad US and their nasty tactics rather than about how crap the French government has been over the past 4 years, or how poor they have been at executing the sub deal.

As for Brexit, I am sure it didn't really figure that much in American thinking. The US would have assessed it on the strategic benefit to the US and not much else. But it is a possibility for the UK to forge greater ties with countries outside of Europe, so anything that allows that is surely positive from a Brexit perspective, even if it does occur by accident rather than design.

 

Right to go correcting again - Micronesia - in Truk the Chinese have been chucking money in and US influence waning. I've physically been to island in the Federated States of Micronesia and there were lots of Chinese setting up shop - locals were questioning US commitment and loans were being offered to buy in from China. The base is as a result of the Free Association Act that lets the US have access to bases - but it also has to be renewed every few years. Many locals were annoyed at rumours years ago as no details of jobs nor if it would affect trade with China or tourism. Yap and Truk ( Chuuk) were Japanese WW2 bases and the locals remember how that went - a lot of their tourism is the sunk Japanese fleet - look up San Francisco Maru its at 67m.

China is more important financially to Djibouti and France is more important security-wise. Have a chat with yourself the Americans have upset Djibouti by not giving what they thought they would get- which is why the Chinese have been allowed in. I actually know people in Djibouti and the Yanks are unpopular as hell.

France is an important Pacific nation and its hillarious watching you spout off how they aren't when prior to this the Americans have gone on about how important they are since the last China Straits crisis.

The Australians don't have the native defence industry and are a client, that is why Australia is in and like you say the French aren't going to be a compliant Pacific bridge. You are correct that US want bases and Aus having commonality of kits means free repair hubs though as I have said - Yanks don't want to have to spend own cash if they can get others to pay.

Japan couldn't be it either as S Korea don't trust them and they have disputes already. Selecting either would upset the applecart.

Now those 10 carrier battlegroups - last US budget almost cut that number and US strategy is all about having regional partners because funnily enough the USN cannot shoulder all the burden.

Why do you think the US has spent last 4 years pushing to get EU nations and UK into the region? Because they don't need anybody else? Possibly because the current regional players are having to spend and will take time to build up.

The US Future Fleet Study ( re-run of one they wouldn't publish as basically said by 2030 you need to haul ass) for 2045 said to compete with China would blow the budget as need a lot more kit - 400 ships to be accurate... it would burn their budget and capacity to build.

Its really fun watching people spout stuff that makes us important with our no bases and aircraft carrier but France unimportant with its bases and carrier group.

I'm going to pass this on to the security & defence analysts I know as they need a laugh.

But by all means keep it coming because a few posts ago it was because French workers strike too much and can't do project management...

I am going to give you a little more credit than the Brexiteer cheerleader crowd though - you know micronesia exists and US signed the deal which is more than most of these France is spent posters.

Btw Rambo nonsense is largely from US own analysis... funny how its Rambo nonsense when it doesn't read Britannia is ace.

Edited by Staffsknot
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23 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

Not "with Europe" - the UK is part of Europe.

Is the EU not engaged in geopolitical warfare with Russia?

Why the obsession with Russia comrade?

Neighbours of Russia don’t need to invade yet another shithole country, people in Russia themselves will sodomise Putin in a Gaddafi style if he continues to rob trillions while the standard of living continues to worsen 

 

dystopian oligarchies end in tears, something that Brexiteers don’t comprehend while trying to emulate Russia to a degree

Edited by yelims
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31 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

Right to go correcting again - Micronesia - in Truk the Chinese have been chucking money in and US influence waning. I've physically been to island in the Federated States of Micronesia and there were lots of Chinese setting up shop - locals were questioning US commitment and loans were being offered to buy in from China. The base is as a result of the Free Association Act that lets the US have access to bases - but it also has to be renewed every few years. Many locals were annoyed at rumours years ago as no details of jobs nor if it would affect trade with China or tourism. Yap and Truk ( Chuuk) were Japanese WW2 bases and the locals remember how that went - a lot of their tourism is the sunk Japanese fleet - look up San Francisco Maru its at 67m.

China is more important financially to Djibouti and France is more important security-wise. Have a chat with yourself the Americans have upset Djibouti by not giving what they thought they would get- which is why the Chinese have been allowed in. I actually know people in Djibouti and the Yanks are unpopular as hell.

France is an important Pacific nation and its hillarious watching you spout off how they aren't when prior to this the Americans have gone on about how important they are since the last China Straits crisis.

The Australians don't have the native defence industry and are a client, that is why Australia is in and like you say the French aren't going to be a compliant Pacific bridge. You are correct that US want bases and Aus having commonality of kits means free repair hubs though as I have said - Yanks don't want to have to spend own cash if they can get others to pay.

Japan couldn't be it either as S Korea don't trust them and they have disputes already. Selecting either would upset the applecart.

Now those 10 carrier battlegroups - last US budget almost cut that number and US strategy is all about having regional partners because funnily enough the USN cannot shoulder all the burden.

Why do you think the US has spent last 4 years pushing to get EU nations and UK into the region? Because they don't need anybody else? Possibly because the current regional players are having to spend and will take time to build up.

The US Future Fleet Study ( re-run of one they wouldn't publish as basically said by 2030 you need to haul ass) for 2045 said to compete with China would blow the budget as need a lot more kit - 400 ships to be accurate... it would burn their budget and capacity to build.

Its really fun watching people spout stuff that makes us important with our no bases and aircraft carrier but France unimportant with its bases and carrier group.

I'm going to pass this on to the security & defence analysts I know as they need a laugh.

But by all means keep it coming because a few posts ago it was because French workers strike too much and can't do project management...

If the US government shared your analysis, it wouldn't have acted in the way it did last week, so either you know better than them, they know something you don't, or they have a different analysis. So far there's no sign that it was just a communications ****-up.

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1 minute ago, thecrashingisles said:

If the US government shared your analysis, it wouldn't have acted in the way it did last week, so either you know better than them, they know something you don't, or they have a different analysis. So far there's no sign that it was just a communications ****-up.

Xi and Putin must be laughing their socks off.

The USA, first no consultation with its allies over the Afghanistan withdrawal and now unity is in disarray in the West. Self-inflicted wounding with an high velocity idiocy gun - like Brexit.

Stupid White Men.

Maybe you can ask your employer what he thinks? - but leave it until tomorrow when he's stopped chortling.

 

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Just now, jonb2 said:

Surely there won't be any chickens to come home - try pigeons.

They'll have had to eat them by then.

Have some fuel and food poverty, folks. 

Good luck saving the 2K needed to get a lorry driving licence & training, and don't forget to put your flat caps on before you go to join the beer queues outside Wetherspoons (seriously - they've had to start pumping raw sewage straight into the rainclouds anywhere north of London. Luckily they can now - no more red tape! Brexit just keeps on delivering*!)

 

*Deliveries only available between 9AM and whenever. No deliveries Sunday, Bank Holidays, Wednesdays, Thursdays, Tuesdays, Most Mondays and Fridays, and ALL Saturdays

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15 hours ago, Staffsknot said:

They didn't think. They just took it what is good for US is good for everyone. Same as Afghanistan. The Yanks didn't try and humiliate France that's Scott Morrison being a dick and not communicating it.

His comments on France needs to move on have blown up as India agreed to exclude them from a 3 way talks at the UN. France matters to India, Australia doesn't on defence.

Same as America needs the other regional powers but has brassed them all off. Americans don't think anything beyond America's desires. Same with NATO, same with us.

If you step outside the UK bubble the talk is all US and Australia even though we are supposedly finding a Pacific role through AUKUS - because we are a tiny component in the Pacific having zero assets in theatre.

Ironically Morrison could ****** this up and end up with nothing but US troops in Darwin due to costs.

For America this ensures their vision of Pacific strategy goes forward ( French one was popular with several nations) and US defence companies are in pole position for any cash on offer.

Biden didn't expect this blowback. Morrison is revelling in it - tells you who rchestrated the France kick in the teeth.

Want a Brexit angle - Biden wants to square things with EU and France. He needs them on side. Germany is also seeing him as an a-hole as are several nations smarting from Afghanistan pullout. 

If only there was some issue which he could involve himself in that he shared an interest with the EU...

He needs that EU fleet currently heading to Pacific to not decide it has better things to do, nor stop coordinating with the US. 

Funny old thing this diplomacy, easy to overcompensate

Morrison who is affectionally known as Scumo by Labour opposition supporters is indeed a genuine psychopath. He has zero tact, zero diplomacy and even paid some so-called consultancy to give his inner circle 'empathy' training at great expense, but as he  is a genuine biological psychopath it was wasted on him.  The rest of his party are mostly trained by birth, like Boris to be sociopaths.  His mouth has been a danger to Australia ever since he turned up.  He also has no concern about the mega thousands of Australians stranded overseas. Current price to get back to Aus for me for a few weeks to see ailing family  is circa £10,000 return due to the quotas per day per flight back into the country including paid for  quarantine and even then you are wait listed up to 6 months ahead. But at the same time he is importing 10,000s of workers to sweat it out in the crop  picking fields, all on subsidised flights and free quarantine. 15,000 millionaires have been able to come and go as they please based on their 'business' credentials.   This is how Scumo does everything and treats everyone he doesn't see as equal.  The Murdoch press which dominates Aus opinion keeps the majority voting correctly.   

Scumo will f** this up. He does not plan ahead. Trump got him to tell the Chinese off re covid failure which lost much business with China trade. This will be worse, and no he doesn't and nor does most of the Aus population give a toss about Chinas treatment of sub sections of the population. His stupidity and grandstanding have lead to him being easily used by bigger powers that he admires. 

Edited by steve99
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8 minutes ago, steve99 said:

Morrison who is affectionally known as Scumo by Labour opposition supporters is indeed a genuine psychopath. He has zero tact, zero diplomacy and even paid some so-called consultancy to give his inner circle 'empathy' training at great expense, but as he  is a genuine biological psychopath it was wasted on him.  The rest of his party are mostly trained by birth, like Boris to be sociopaths.  His mouth has been a danger to Australia ever since he turned up.  He also has no concern about the mega thousands of Australians stranded overseas. Current price to get back to Aus for me for a few weeks to see ailing family  is circa £10,000 return due to the quotas per day per flight back into the country including paid for  quarantine and even then you are wait listed up to 6 months ahead. But at the same time he is importing 10,000s of workers to sweat it out in the crop  picking fields, all on subsidised flights and free quarantine. 15,000 millionaires have been able to come and go as they please based on their 'business' credentials.   This is how Scumo does everything and treats everyone he doesn't see as equal.  The Murdoch press which dominates Aus opinion keeps the majority voting correctly. 

Yup.

Biden, Morrison and Bojo. What a fecking team.

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27 minutes ago, byron78 said:

They'll have had to eat them by then.

Have some fuel and food poverty, folks. 

Good luck saving the 2K needed to get a lorry driving licence & training, and don't forget to put your flat caps on before you go to join the beer queues outside Wetherspoons (seriously - they've had to start pumping raw sewage straight into the rainclouds anywhere north of London. Luckily they can now - no more red tape! Brexit just keeps on delivering*!)

 

*Deliveries only available between 9AM and whenever. No deliveries Sunday, Bank Holidays, Wednesdays, Thursdays, Tuesdays, Most Mondays and Fridays, and ALL Saturdays

Who needs lorries? Or even decent roads? This is our future;

 

romanian-horse-car_st.jpg

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2 hours ago, thecrashingisles said:

If the US government shared your analysis, it wouldn't have acted in the way it did last week, so either you know better than them, they know something you don't, or they have a different analysis. So far there's no sign that it was just a communications ****-up.

You might want to tell that to the US Navy they were involved in French led drills off Guam and Bay of Bengal and the term lynchpin was used in the Naval Institute white paper a couple of years back. We didn't feature.

In it French participation in patrols in Asia were deemed essential as US could not be 'everywhere' with China's naval expansion.

This is why France, Japan and US conducted joint exercise in May where US performed RAS ( resupply at sea) of French and Japanese assets. French have done a reciprocal exercise off its territories.

Suggest you go back to finding another Brexit is great story.

If France didn't matter why is Blinken trying to put things back together right rapid and calling them a 'vital partner'.

Morrison has blown this whole thing up. Handled diplomatically and if France had got something the Americans might have been able to persuade France that nuclear subs and US bases were in their joint interest. But Morrison is a ***** and if he can't afford the subs the US gets the bases anyway

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2 hours ago, steve99 said:

Morrison who is affectionally known as Scumo by Labour opposition supporters is indeed a genuine psychopath. He has zero tact, zero diplomacy and even paid some so-called consultancy to give his inner circle 'empathy' training at great expense, but as he  is a genuine biological psychopath it was wasted on him.  The rest of his party are mostly trained by birth, like Boris to be sociopaths.  His mouth has been a danger to Australia ever since he turned up.  He also has no concern about the mega thousands of Australians stranded overseas. Current price to get back to Aus for me for a few weeks to see ailing family  is circa £10,000 return due to the quotas per day per flight back into the country including paid for  quarantine and even then you are wait listed up to 6 months ahead. But at the same time he is importing 10,000s of workers to sweat it out in the crop  picking fields, all on subsidised flights and free quarantine. 15,000 millionaires have been able to come and go as they please based on their 'business' credentials.   This is how Scumo does everything and treats everyone he doesn't see as equal.  The Murdoch press which dominates Aus opinion keeps the majority voting correctly.   

Scumo will f** this up. He does not plan ahead. Trump got him to tell the Chinese off re covid failure which lost much business with China trade. This will be worse, and no he doesn't and nor does most of the Aus population give a toss about Chinas treatment of sub sections of the population. His stupidity and grandstanding have lead to him being easily used by bigger powers that he admires. 

To quote some Aussie defence folks I know - he could ****** up the planning of a wet dream.

His cricket comments during bushfires made him wet fart popular. 350+ Aussies are out of work over this and he has an 18 month study paper from the Yanks and a defence budget screaming needs more - China policy will be to try and stuff Aus economy before they get anything built.

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40 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

To quote some Aussie defence folks I know - he could ****** up the planning of a wet dream.

His cricket comments during bushfires made him wet fart popular. 350+ Aussies are out of work over this and he has an 18 month study paper from the Yanks and a defence budget screaming needs more - China policy will be to try and stuff Aus economy before they get anything built.

+1 if you can't bomb them, bankrupt them.

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Final note on why Scott Morrison orchestrated this ****-up from French Defence Ministry - Le jour même de l'annulation du contrat sous-marins, l'Australie a écrit à la France pour dire qu'elle était satisfaite des performances prévus des sous-marins Attack et de la conduite du programme (ministère des armées français).

Roughly translated the Australian Navy wrote to the French Defence Ministry and Naval Group on same day project cancelled stating that the Attack sub met all their requirements and the programme was being well conducted. 

Off record comments state the Australian Naval people had no idea of any requirement change or reason project shitcanned. In other words all the noise about having to cancel due to delays and French being difficult was Morrison laying the groundwork PR.

Edited by Staffsknot
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1 minute ago, Staffsknot said:

Final note on why Scott Morrison orchestrated this ****-up from French Defence Ministry - Le jour même de l'annulation du contrat sous-marins, l'Australie a écrit à la France pour dire qu'elle était satisfaite des performances prévus des sous-marins Attack et de la conduite du programme (ministère des armées français).

Roughly translated the Australian Navy wrote to the French Defence Ministry and Naval Group on same day project cancelled stating that the Attack sub met all their requirements and the programme was being well conducted. 

Off record comments state the Australian Naval people had no idea of any requirement change or reason project shitcanned.

Gross incompetence and flying by the seat of pants seems to be a hallmark of Trumpet regimes these days.

Chinese with their long term plays and plans must be laughing their holes off.

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