Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

Not if said company in EU says no we ain't selling there. That's a pretty huge barrier.

Right then, trade diversion is happening.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, kzb said:

Sales in UK from EU countries.

Last 12 months compared to 2016:

  1. Germany -£12.2 bn  (= -18.7%)
  2. Belgium -£3.7 bn
  3. France -£3.3 bn
  4. Netherlands -£2.7 bn
  5. Spain -£2.6 bn
  6. Sweden -£1.2 bn
  7. Czechia -£1.1 bn
  8. Italy -£0.7 bn
  9. Slovakia -£0.4 bn
  10. Portugal -£0.4 bn

   EU27               -£28 bn (= -11.3%)

   RoW              -1.2%

  RoW 2021Q1 compared to 2016Q1 = +16.3%

UK purchase share of goods and services from EU27

2016Q1 = 55.7%

2021Q1 = 49.5%

People are actively favouring non-EU goods and services.  "Trade Diversion" is happening.

And this is during a period where we are waving through EU imports at the border.  The only explanation is the British people have seen the hostile attitude of the EU and are switching preferences accordingly.

 

Rubbish, some of this is due to Brexit stupidity. For example try importing or exporting cheese, you now need a vet certificate with every consignment.

No one is favouring non EU, it is just Brexit is totally retarded.

Anyway at some point the Brexiters will die out as most are boomers. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

I think you are dancing around things again and invoking the 'better way of doing things' nebulous concept.

Its all very idealist and theoretical and ironically allows not sticking anything concrete down and then to distance from results.

Brexit as a fork in road not is a destination is an example of this airy whiteboard thinking. You can literally dismiss any bad things if you go full nebulous 'its conceptual'

The same thing can be said in reverse. People take it as an article of faith that the four freedoms are a priori a 'good thing', regardless of any real world distortions they observe that result from their rigid application.

Edited by thecrashingisles
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, kzb said:

Right then, trade diversion is happening.

Not due to patriotism as I said. 

Many companies ran through contingencies too so altered supply chains in case of Brexit border chaos.

Thirdly RoW is also funnily enough where almost all our PPE and majority of the IT kit currently propping up back to work intiatives is coming from.

So that's another posters Covid point fleshed out in case you didn't get it.

It isn't diversion by consumer choice

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

The same thing can be said in reverse. People take it as an article of faith that the four freedoms are a priori a 'good thing', regardless of any real world distortions they observe that result from their rigid application.

But choosing an actual concrete thing in reality to debate as a starting point is a bit more practical than starting in the ether and staying there unless you want a debate on can we evolve into being of pure energy and therefore trade barriers are no issue... but that might raise FoM darn it

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

But choosing an actual concrete thing in reality to debate as a starting point is a bit more practical than starting in the ether and staying there unless you want a debate on can we evolve into being of pure energy and therefore trade barriers are no issue... but that might raise FoM darn it

It does make me wonder whether he truely believes what he says, or has just chosen something to cheer for like a sports team.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, kzb said:

People forget the TCA is up for review in 2026.  By that time I hope we'll have got lots of other FTAs in place.

Fantastic I’m all for cutting all trade with fascist regimes

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, kzb said:

So how come imports from RoW have increased ?  There are, in theory at least, more difficulties with RoW imports, because we don't have an FTA with many of the countries.

There were no changes in trading arrangements with RoW. In comparison Brexit had an negative impact, increasing costs. So relatively to ROW trading with the EU should be lower.

In general based on the numbers you quoted it is hard to draw any conclusions. You need to look at volumes not value, adjust for the long term trends (manufacturing moving to China), remove the Covid impact. There are also problems with trading data itself. UK and EU data don't reconcile, especially after Brexit. Nobody knows exactly what it is. The devil is details.  

 

  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

You are just making stuff up, nobody said it would be terminal "project fear" predicted a 6-8% loss of GDP over 15yrs assuming we left with a good FTA.

The loss of GDP has proceeded pretty much as predicted by "project fear". So far the impact has been covered up by increased borrowing but that cannot and won't last for ever.

Read the OBR's pre Covid March 2020 financial report and maybe pre/post Brexit borrowing forecasts, if you actually want to see the details and how this "slow motion train wreck" is developing. 

 

That's a good one, I must have dreamt all the Remainer predictions of economic disaster, it was incessant doom and gloom from them, you can be pedantic over the words if you want but whether disaster, terminal, trashing etc, the gist was the same. The effects of the pandemic are going to cloud what is to blame for any loss of GDP.

Edited by simon99
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

Your comments make me wonder whether you actually read what I say, or have just decided that if it looks like a witch, it must be a witch.

Yet, I am not the only one that sees you continually avoid a straight answer.

If you are giving clear answers, then it appears they are not somewhere that anyone on this forum has access to.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

But choosing an actual concrete thing in reality to debate as a starting point is a bit more practical than starting in the ether and staying there unless you want a debate on can we evolve into being of pure energy and therefore trade barriers are no issue... but that might raise FoM darn it

The actual concrete thing is the TCA. The discussion around adjustments to the operation of the NIP is in many ways a sideshow. My view on that is simply that the anti-UK moralising is wrong and that a revision is both desirable and achievable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, kzb said:

So how come imports from RoW have increased ?  There are, in theory at least, more difficulties with RoW imports, because we don't have an FTA with many of the countries.

You could trade with rest of world quite fine before with hundreds of treaties 

hell some Eu members like Ireland export 4x more per capita to likes of China than uk do, why?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, simon99 said:

I must have dreamt all the Remainer predictions of trashing the economy, it was incessant doom and gloom from them. The effects of the pandemic are going to cloud what is to blame for any loss of GDP.

Most people would regard a voluntary loss of 6-8% GDP as trashing the economy. Trying to hide behind Covid doesn't work as the OBR's report pre dated Covid and was accepted by the Treasury as their future planning basis.  

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, thecrashingisles said:

The actual concrete thing is the TCA. The discussion around adjustments to the operation of the NIP is in many ways a sideshow. My view on that is simply that the anti-UK moralising is wrong and that a revision is both desirable and achievable.

Concrete thing requires adherence to rules though and that is what I said TCA and NIP can't be looked at as one without other or that TCA will not be tweaked should the NIP be.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wales is on path to austerity after EU funds cut, says minister

 

London has so far failed to replace aid lost because of Brexit, says Welsh government

 

Wales is heading towards a new era of austerity after losing £375m a year in EU economic aid because of Brexit, the nation’s economy minister has said.

 

Vaughan Gething told the Financial Times that while much funding from Brussels would end this financial year following the UK’s departure from the EU, the government in London had yet to allocate replacement support as promised.

 

https://amp.ft.com/content/56b8c767-0b79-4221-8c33-a10a4705224e?__twitter_impression=true

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, thecrashingisles said:

I don't think either the UK or EU sides of this are quite as clear cut as that. Within the UK there is clearly disquiet about the implementation of the NIP among unionists which the government has to take seriously, but that doesn't necessarily mean there is a united strategy to remove it. There are different views about tactics as well as strategy, but removing an internal border is clearly a legitimate national interest that the UK has every right to keep pushing for even if it means interpreting agreements in a one-sided way or being a nuisance to "friends and partners".

We need to move beyond treating the fact of Brexit itself as a live political question. (E.g. @Bob8's proposal to stay in the SM/CU to keep the status quo.) The previous status quo no longer exists and there is no political appetite in the UK to rejoin. In my view this also means ruling out any form of dynamic alignment, because to leave the EU and then follow EU law would render the whole thing pointless. You might not believe there are any benefits from becoming an independent regulatory space, but you can guarantee that there are no benefits from not doing so. A so-called hard Brexit is therefore the only Brexit.

So according to you we are now trapped by an 'only' Brexit, a Brexit that nobody wants, (other than the usual suspects!), a Brexit in which now even the previously trumpeted albeit p1ssy trade deals are completely pointless,  that fecks up NI and keeps the entire country split unless/until it actually breaks up :) 

Is this situation sustainable ?

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, pig said:

So according to you we are now trapped by an 'only' Brexit, a Brexit that nobody wants, (other than the usual suspects!), a Brexit in which now even the previously trumpeted albeit p1ssy trade deals are completely pointless,  that fecks up NI and keeps the entire country split unless/until it actually breaks up :) 

Is this situation sustainable ?

Domestic politics probably won't fully settle down until there's a change of government to a PM from another party who is not seeking to reverse Brexit in any way.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

Domestic politics probably won't fully settle down until there's a change of government to a PM from another party who is not seeking to reverse Brexit in any way.

Thats quite a fanatical sentiment.

By definition, politics won't settle down until fanatical sentiments are no longer appeased,

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

No it isn't. It's a sober assessment of the political landscape. Trying to reverse Brexit is a futile endeavour.

No you said "not seeking to reverse Brexit in any way".

Politics won't have 'settled down' until that kind of fanatical drivel has been jettisoned and we start making democratic decisions in Britains interest.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

No it isn't. It's a sober assessment of the political landscape. Trying to reverse Brexit is a futile endeavour.

Resistance is futile. 🤣

You are just getting more and more deluded.

The political landscape can change, especially when the majority is not happy with Brexit.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Most people would regard a voluntary loss of 6-8% GDP as trashing the economy. Trying to hide behind Covid doesn't work as the OBR's report pre dated Covid and was accepted by the Treasury as their future planning basis.  

 

 

Right, so I use the word Terminal and I'm making things up, yet you yourself say trashing and train wreck. Amazing logic there.

Edited by simon99
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, simon99 said:

Right, so I use the word Terminal and I'm making things up, yet you yourself say trashing and train wreck. Amazing logic there.

It's called English.

Clearly not terminal but voluntarily creating a 6-8% loss of GDP, the equivalent of a major financial "crash" would commonly be described as thrashing the economy. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.