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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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5 minutes ago, 24gray24 said:

 

Or hand over the Protestants to southern ireland. 

After a referendum. 

Will of the people and all that.  

should be a Catholic majority next year shouldn't there yelims? 

I wouldn't put it beyond boris. And I doubt anyone - biden, eu, southern ireland- would be ready for such a swift  and shameless skedaddle. 

That’s also a solution 

 

btw you avoided my point

 

why is Boris rowing back on will of people “best oven ready deal”TM which got him elected? Why is he allowed ignore the “will of people”

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1 hour ago, 24gray24 said:

You blame the british government because you cannot accept the reality. 

Nor of course can the british or irish governments, nor biden nor the eu.

Yet... it's been the one constant for a hundred years. 

 

On the simple Cathloic / Protestant view of NI - several prominant republicans and Irish independence figures were protestants. Lookup Tone Wolfe.

More recent history has been protestant = unionist, catholic = republican. Protestants took part in the Easter Rising and the Irish Free State / Civil War. Many in NI Catholic communities thought the army turning up in the 70s would end the tit for tat killings... got that from a person there at the time.

In NI the issue is Loyalists feel taken for granted and their identity separated by separated regulations or standards from UK... unless its some same sex or religious law.

It was always an unworkable situation as loyalists weren't consulted so they'll reject outright anything. Republicans needed guarantee free movement still to Ireland because any separation is unthinkable to their supporters and their paramilitaries had it as a red line.

Its not about goods its about perceived separation.

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15 minutes ago, yelims said:

That’s also a solution 

 

btw you avoided my point

 

why is Boris rowing back on will of people “best oven ready deal”TM which got him elected? Why is he allowed ignore the “will of people”

I don't think the English care if boris ignores eu rules on shipping goods to Northern Ireland or if he enforces them.  

Half of them don't care if the eu retaliates and the whole thing collapses. 

They wanted out and they got three quarters out. So they're happy. 

But the Protestants  care, as they're still stuck in.  And theyve realised that Ira violence paid so that has its own logic too. 

Bombs and ballots and boots on the ground. The only real issue is whose boots, and how soon. 

When is this exit referendum yelims?

Who can call it? 

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2 hours ago, yelims said:

no wonder Americans are pissed this ******** that was resolved got opened up, and why? You lot still can’t name any positives of brexit 

Positive #1 - Fewer Europeans living near brexit voters
Positive #2 - Their political party is in power virtually permanently

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1 hour ago, 24gray24 said:

 

Or hand over the Protestants to southern ireland. 

After a referendum. 

Will of the people and all that.  

should be a Catholic majority next year shouldn't there yelims? 

I wouldn't put it beyond boris. And I doubt anyone - biden, eu, southern ireland- would be ready for such a swift  and shameless skedaddle. 

Would they want it? High chance they gain  an extra territory with a built in guerrilla war starting (loyalists are unlikely to accept uniting with ROI).

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25 minutes ago, MancTom said:

Would they want it? High chance they gain  an extra territory with a built in guerrilla war starting (loyalists are unlikely to accept uniting with ROI).

How could they refuse? 

Could they refuse?

Yelims was silent on this when I suggested it to him as the boris Master plan. 

It's not that Boris is incapable of doing it or that the English wouldn't  be delighted. 

The southern irish government would have to call its own referendum to pass the buck I'd guess. 

Two referendums where both governments would be sincerely hoping they lose.  

While wrapping themselves in the flag of misty eyed patriotism. 

Should be quite a show. 

Fireworks all round. 

 

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35 minutes ago, 24gray24 said:

How could they refuse? 

Could they refuse?

Yelims was silent on this when I suggested it to him as the boris Master plan. 

It's not that Boris is incapable of doing it or that the English wouldn't  be delighted. 

The southern irish government would have to call its own referendum to pass the buck I'd guess. 

Two referendums where both governments would be sincerely hoping they lose.  

While wrapping themselves in the flag of misty eyed patriotism. 

Should be quite a show. 

Fireworks all round. 

 

 

With Irish Joe in the Whitehouse? I think not.

Johnson will do as he's told.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/joe-bidens-candid-warning-to-boris-johnson-on-northern-ireland-peace-exposed/ar-AAL1vJP

AAL0MuQ.img?h=533&w=799&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f

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56 minutes ago, 24gray24 said:

How could they refuse? 

Could they refuse?

Yelims was silent on this when I suggested it to him as the boris Master plan. 

It's not that Boris is incapable of doing it or that the English wouldn't  be delighted. 

The southern irish government would have to call its own referendum to pass the buck I'd guess. 

Two referendums where both governments would be sincerely hoping they lose.  

While wrapping themselves in the flag of misty eyed patriotism. 

Should be quite a show. 

Fireworks all round. 

 

The conditions for an all Ireland referendum are already set out in the GFA, it's still many years away. 

It cannot be called until it is believed that reunification is the settled will of the people on both sides of the border. That test won't be met until the demographics have changed maybe 15-20yrs and NI can stand on its own feet economically. 

 

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2 hours ago, 24gray24 said:

I don't think the English care if boris ignores eu rules on shipping goods to Northern Ireland or if he enforces them.  

Half of them don't care if the eu retaliates and the whole thing collapses. 

They wanted out and they got three quarters out. So they're happy. 

But the Protestants  care, as they're still stuck in.  And theyve realised that Ira violence paid so that has its own logic too. 

Bombs and ballots and boots on the ground. The only real issue is whose boots, and how soon. 

When is this exit referendum yelims?

Who can call it? 

Why the ****** would there be a referendum here to exit EU? Because Brexit has been such a success that Brexiteers can’t name a single positive?

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14 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

And BJ's reaction to this advice?..... Jabs, jabs, jabs, jabs, jabs.... :rolleyes:

From the very beginning, this has always been a landmine waiting to be stood upon by the Loyalists. The Irish government recognised very quickly how NI would be a huge problem if Leave won the referendum; and the EU were very quickly persuaded that NI was a huge problem when Leave won the referendum.

Johnson & Co are only now catching up with what the rest of us have known (and game-planned) for five years. And - such sweet irony - Johnson's fall-back position is exactly the same red line with which he strangled Theresa May: not wishing to stand over the break-up of the Kingdom.

However, he's pushed the Great Buccaneering Brexit boat out so far now that he's at risk of encouraging the real British people (you know, the ones who were born and raised in Britain, not the ones in some overseas territory who speak with a weird accent and pledge their loyalty to the Dutch monarchy every July) ... of encouraging those Britons to demand the Brexit he promised.

If the 17.4m want a border in the Irish Sea so that "the Mainland" can get on with their buccaneering, they'll get their border in the Irish Sea.

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1 hour ago, zugzwang said:

One thing that came across very strongly this weekend is just how poor a politician and 'leader' Johnson is. The other G7 leaders plus EU leaders all had an air of authority and statesmanship about them. Is he even intelligent at all? He can barely string a sentence together and is terrible under pressure in interviews.

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14 minutes ago, yelims said:

One thing that came across very strongly this weekend is just how poor a politician and 'leader' Johnson is. The other G7 leaders plus EU leaders all had an air of authority and statesmanship about them. Is he even intelligent at all? He can barely string a sentence together and is terrible under pressure in interviews.

That's because he's a 30 sec soundbite politician who as a journo could say anything and get away with it.

He's a 2nd rate actor doing tricks to the gallery and the applause has stopped

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1 hour ago, 24gray24 said:

How could they refuse? 

Could they refuse?

Yelims was silent on this when I suggested it to him as the boris Master plan. 

It's not that Boris is incapable of doing it or that the English wouldn't  be delighted. 

The southern irish government would have to call its own referendum to pass the buck I'd guess. 

Two referendums where both governments would be sincerely hoping they lose.  

While wrapping themselves in the flag of misty eyed patriotism. 

Should be quite a show. 

Fireworks all round. 

 

Hilarious when you think about it.

We couldn't achieve peace in NI without the EU, basically couldn't manage our own country without the help of the US and EU, and after all that Brexit drivel our big threat is.... not to control our only land border with the EU ! The G7 was like a parent with frayed nerves trying to keep its cool.

We're like this stupid kid that can't get on with anybody so we've run up a tree to throw stones "and if I starve its your fault ha ha". 

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31 minutes ago, yelims said:

One thing that came across very strongly this weekend is just how poor a politician and 'leader' Johnson is. The other G7 leaders plus EU leaders all had an air of authority and statesmanship about them. Is he even intelligent at all? He can barely string a sentence together and is terrible under pressure in interviews.

My wife said to me, when I was ranting about BJ, "It's not his fault he's stoopid".

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53 minutes ago, pig said:

Hilarious when you think about it.

We couldn't achieve peace in NI without the EU, basically couldn't manage our own country without the help of the US and EU, and after all that Brexit drivel our big threat is.... not to control our only land border with the EU ! The G7 was like a parent with frayed nerves trying to keep its cool.

We're like this stupid kid that can't get on with anybody so we've run up a tree to throw stones "and if I starve its your fault ha ha". 

I also don't think the GFA would have been possible without the UK and Ireland being in the EU. The EU made this possible...and what do they get for it? Nowt but criticsim from the nationalism Brexiteers who have now put this at risk...especially BJ who can't even be bothered to stick to the deal he himself proclaimed 'the best deal ever'.

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3 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

My wife said to me, when I was ranting about BJ, "It's not his fault he's stoopid".

I don't think he is stupid. I think he is a morally depraved narcissist. He crafted lies about the EU for a living, he knows what he is doing. He just doesn't care about the human damage this causes. Setting people against each other like he is doing comes with a price. He won't be the one to pay it of course.

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3 hours ago, IMHAL said:

I also don't think the GFA would have been possible without the UK and Ireland being in the EU. The EU made this possible...and what do they get for it? Nowt but criticsim from the nationalism Brexiteers who have now put this at risk...especially BJ who can't even be bothered to stick to the deal he himself proclaimed 'the best deal ever'.

Thats my understanding. Tbf I always find it a bit dodgy characterising national/international bodies as if they were consistent individuals acting through all time, but the way we are now screwing around is deeply embarrassing.

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I see BJ has agrred the Oz trade deal in principle over lunch. Hormone beef and lamb, erosion of our food standards, British farmers being undercut, more shipping from the other side of the world. 

By voting for 'not the EU', a negative vote, we have left the door open, by default, for 'anything else goes'......and the British people can not do anything to stop it.

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52 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

I see BJ has agrred the Oz trade deal in principle over lunch. Hormone beef and lamb, erosion of our food standards, British farmers being undercut, more shipping from the other side of the world. 

By voting for 'not the EU', a negative vote, we have left the door open, by default, for 'anything else goes'......and the British people can not do anything to stop it.

A great man once said

 

F🙃🤪K Business 

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58 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

I see BJ has agrred the Oz trade deal in principle over lunch. Hormone beef and lamb, erosion of our food standards, British farmers being undercut, more shipping from the other side of the world. 

By voting for 'not the EU', a negative vote, we have left the door open, by default, for 'anything else goes'......and the British people can not do anything to stop it.

However, curiously as far as I can see there don't seem to be any details.

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On 6/14/2021 at 8:59 AM, yelims said:

Quite the opposite, the EU has to react quickly and forcefully and deliver a kick to Boris balls via dead uk exports 

otherwise it sends a message to hundreds of countries that treaties with Eu can be bent, ignored and broken

and there’s nothing Boris can do about the soon to arrive high tariffs as he is incapable of border control (Brexit irony there)

there will be a U turn by Tories yet again, how many times now in last few years they’ve been reminded that “you need us more than we need you”

 

 

I do not agree with your claim the EU will react quickly as the EU is an impossible position.  The behaviour of the UK government does not meet the norms of statehood.  So the EU has a choice; allow the NIP to be eroded, until there is a gap in the SM and CU border; or start the slow nd limited process of dispute resolution that will involve the ECJ and result in the UK press screaming about "EU bullying" which could in turn lead to triggering of Article 16, something that BJ has been threatening since the start of the year.

Many of the difficulties with the NIP could be resolved by an agreement on SPS, but that is not acceptable to the UK government.  The grace period for "chilled meats" expires on 30th June, when the EU will either decide to take some form of action against the UK, or accept that the NIP will not be implemented.  

In my view, and I'm no expert on Irish or Northern Ireland politics, is that the EU will do everything to avoid a conflict with the UK, and may simply agree another 'temporary' extension to the grace period.  However , at the G7 summit, BJ stated that the aim is "... to allow unencumbered  trade between Northern Ireland, GB, and the Republic of Ireland".  A statement that demonstrates a desire to cram the cake onto his gob and pocket, while leaving the cake in the tin!

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12 hours ago, dugsbody said:

I don't think he is stupid. I think he is a morally depraved narcissist. He crafted lies about the EU for a living, he knows what he is doing. He just doesn't care about the human damage this causes. Setting people against each other like he is doing comes with a price. He won't be the one to pay it of course.

Brilliant post, although I'm not sure that I fully agree with the last sentence.  There is still the small possibility that something will blow up in Boris' face and wreck him.

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15 minutes ago, skinnylattej said:

I do not agree with your claim the EU will react quickly as the EU is an impossible position.  The behaviour of the UK government does not meet the norms of statehood.  So the EU has a choice; allow the NIP to be eroded, until there is a gap in the SM and CU border; or start the slow nd limited process of dispute resolution that will involve the ECJ and result in the UK press screaming about "EU bullying" which could in turn lead to triggering of Article 16, something that BJ has been threatening since the start of the year.

Many of the difficulties with the NIP could be resolved by an agreement on SPS, but that is not acceptable to the UK government.  The grace period for "chilled meats" expires on 30th June, when the EU will either decide to take some form of action against the UK, or accept that the NIP will not be implemented.  

In my view, and I'm no expert on Irish or Northern Ireland politics, is that the EU will do everything to avoid a conflict with the UK, and may simply agree another 'temporary' extension to the grace period.  However , at the G7 summit, BJ stated that the aim is "... to allow unencumbered  trade between Northern Ireland, GB, and the Republic of Ireland".  A statement that demonstrates a desire to cram the cake onto his gob and pocket, while leaving the cake in the tin!

Boris says a lot of things but once again what uk wanted out of that deal was tarrif free trade with Eu, which it got in return for a solution to NI problem 

which Boris is now rowing back on, time and time again Eu has shown it cares more about peace in ni than trade with uk which is 3% Eu exports (8% at most in Ireland who also care more about peace in ni than getting tat from uk)

If Boris doesn’t do what he agreed reminders will be created at Calais (macron would also get a domestic bonus for sticking it to English) destroying any certainty for uk business (a plus for Eu business filling in void quickly now) while also pursuing whole thing in courts, they done it in December already

 

in meantime Biden continues ratcheting up pressure not just because of his Irish connections but because Boris reminds him of Trump and Tories adopted republican tactics, unlike at home he can slap down this Trumpist disease with ease 

 

eu is slow dealing with internal issues but not external threats and that’s what uk now is, external 

to give an example what would happen to Turkeys trade deal with Eu if they decided cause trouble in Cyprus or Greece?

 

uk soft power is dead, we seen it this week at g7, respect is gone, it’s now seen by normal countries as a basket case somewhere in same category as Turkey, Belarus and Russia 

Edited by yelims
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At end of day, here is a recap 

 

EU has made a massive concession to UK for it to operate part of its external border all to ensure good Friday agreement (which uk forgot it also signed) doesn’t implode 

Boris refuses now (going against his own rhetoric and will of people who elected him so recently to appease DUP nutcases who don’t even represent majority in ni) to implement what he agreed to

He might be hoping that EU is slow to react, but

1. Eu has uk economy by balls in Calais, squeezing of said balls makes Macron look good domestically 

2. Biden sees Boris as Trump lite and it would love nothing more than crush him as it’s personal 

3. Boris forgets UK is not center of universe, EU sees itself giving UK an inch and getting nothing in return, this also creates a dangerous precedent.


The coming uturn is going to be epic

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