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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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4 hours ago, 24gray24 said:

No one has noticed any bad effects from brexit round my way. All they're thinking about is end of lockdown, seeing their friends and going to the pub. They' re quite happy with brexit if you ask them, but it's off the mental radar. 

I think you're reading the runes too much and not getting out enough. 

 

Unless you are in a job impacted by Brexit, such as fishing, banking, food exports etc etc then I suppose not. Plus there are no import controls at the moment and the gov is spending hand over fist with less tax take. When import controls are imposed you will have a NI anger situation all over the UK.

I think you are reading too little into the situation, you need to take a view as to what is currently happending and what is being masked/delayed by covid/furlough and import controls. 

 

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I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

Posted Images

I posted this on another thread to no reaction.  Perhaps it will generate some interest on this thread:

New estimates of UK migration from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) have added an average of 93,000 per year to EU net migration from the year ending March 2012 to the year ending March 2020, while figures for non-EU migrants have been reduced by 54,000, the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford said today. 

Today’s report gives a first glimpse of a new approach the ONS is developing to improve migration statistics by using data from administrative record such as taxes and benefits. The new, more accurate figures replace data from the unreliable International Passenger Survey, which was the main source of immigration and emigration numbers until recently.  

The new report estimates that total net migration of foreign citizens was only slightly higher than previous estimates suggested—43,000 or 15% higher over the 9-year period from the year ending March 2012 to the year ending March 2020. These figures do not cover the period of the Covid-19 pandemic, which led to a precipitous decline in migration from the EU. Provisional figures also published today suggest total net migration in the second quarter of 2020 was negative.  

However, EU migration makes up a much larger share of the total in the new figures. Using the new method, ONS estimates that net EU migration averaged 216,000 from during the 9-year period ending in March 2020. This is 93,000 or 76% higher than previous survey-based figures (which had themselves already been revised upwards previously).  

By contrast, the new method produces lower figures for non-EU net migration, which the Migration Observatory has said for some time was being overestimated. Non-EU net migration during the same period is 54,000 or 31% lower in the new figures compared the old, survey-based estimates.  

Over the whole 9-year period, EU countries made up an estimated 64% of total non-UK net migration according to the new data. This is up from just 42% in the old, survey-based figures.  

[EDIT] 

In the year ending March 2012, which was when many of the coalition-era restrictions on non-EU migration were being introduced, the old survey based estimates suggested that only 29% of net migration of foreign citizens was from the EU. (That was later revised up to 37%). The new figures revise that up to 68%.  

https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/press/eu-made-up-much-higher-share-of-net-migration-after-2010-than-official-figures-suggested/

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On 17/04/2021 at 02:05, pig said:

Lol but they aren't racist.

But thats actually really  interesting ! Is the fear of needing forgiveness part of the reason why racists lose their sh1t over the knee thing ? :)

Exactly what does getting on your knees offer in terms of practical help - for example for the 35 percent of young black men on the dole post pandemic or families living in damp mould ridden council homes in Croydon!

It’s just virtue sigkneeling frankly

I expect many would rather see politicians and others getting off their knees and actually offering practical solutions to sort out their real world problems!

Edited by MARTINX9
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9 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

I expect many would rather see politicians and others getting off their knees and actually offering practical solutions to sort out their real world problems!

Vote Tory!

You guys are funny.

Edited by dugsbody
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10 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

Exactly what does getting on your knees offer in terms of practical help - for example for the 35 percent of young black men on the dole post pandemic or families living in damp mould ridden council homes in Croydon!

It’s just virtue sigkneeling frankly

Well of course its a fecking signal  - they aren't doing it to even the grass lol.

As for 'virtue signaling', well thats a phase associated with  guilty RW ad hominems in the form of a ....virtue signal :)

10 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

I expect many would rather see politicians and others getting off their knees and actually offering practical solutions to sort out their real world problems!

The need for practical help over and above the 'signal' is fair enough. John Barnes was uncomfortable with the knee thing for that very reason.

https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/12254606/john-barnes-football-can-only-highlight-racism-it-cant-change-peoples-perceptions

But its interesting to note that  in the face of all those virtue signalling BLM protests and all the virtue signalling footballers the government felt forced into action and therefore proceeded to feck it all up and pretty much do the worst thing it could do under the circumstances:

Quote

Downing Street officials have been accused of rewriting much of the Race and Ethnic disparities’ report, despite electing an independent commission to conduct an investigation into racial inequality in the UK.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/government-race-report-downing-street-b929080.html

 

 

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7 hours ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:

A couple of snapshots on where the UK is today:

Edit: Classic quote for HPC: "People are just too angry... People aren't going to sit at home watching 'Homes Under the Hammer' when they've lost their lively hoods and lost their future."

 

 

What a negative blog.  January was always going to be a nightmare month with the effect of Covid and forward purchasing in anticipation of Brexit.  This is a little more balanced:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/january2021

 

 

 

Edited by mark hughes
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16 minutes ago, mark hughes said:

What a negative blog.  January was always going to be a nightmare month with the effect of Covid and forward purchasing in anticipation of Brexit.  This is a little more balanced:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/january2021

 

With the BJ regime, you can't go far wrong by disbelieving everything they say, and pushing back against everything they do.

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3 hours ago, mark hughes said:

What a negative blog.  January was always going to be a nightmare month with the effect of Covid and forward purchasing in anticipation of Brexit.  This is a little more balanced:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/january2021

 

 

 

Actually, I partially agree. The first few months where going to be worse than what will follow. However, the report is still very bad, I don't expect that we will see a recovery to anything like normal moving forward.

The take away is that the 'new normal' will be significantly worse than before. We will have the luxury and displeasure of witnessing this first hand IMO. The next 6 months will give a true picture of the new normal. Once that period is over then there will be nothing to argue about. The figures will be in and the facts will speak for themselves.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Actually, I partially agree. The first few months where going to be worse than what will follow. However, the report is still very bad, I don't expect that we will see a recovery to anything like normal moving forward.

The take away is that the 'new normal' will be significantly worse than before. We will have the luxury and displeasure of witnessing this first hand IMO. The next 6 months will give a true picture of the new normal. Once that period is over then there will be nothing to argue about. The figures will be in and the facts will speak for themselves.

 

 

I posted eurostat figures for January AND February imports from uk down in half, that’s 2 full months 

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10 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

Of course, as with everything that comes out of the BJ government.

I expect the weather forecast to be sunshine and heat waves from now on til December ...

Edited by debtlessmanc
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7 hours ago, IMHAL said:

...The next 6 months will give a true picture of the new normal. Once that period is over then there will be nothing to argue about. The figures will be in and the facts will speak for themselves.

 

 

Totally disagree, the figures will be utterly distorted and spun and exaggerated and there will always be some new bag of squirrels ready to be unleashed alongside the figures.

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18 minutes ago, erat_forte said:

Totally disagree, the figures will be utterly distorted and spun and exaggerated and there will always be some new bag of squirrels ready to be unleashed alongside the figures.

The figures will be the figures. There will be many sources and that will give a true overall picture. 

I agree that the gov will put out many excuses as to why the figures are the way they are, bumps in the road, leaves on the track, squirrel ate our nuts etc etc etc. But most people who are not Brexit brainwashed will see through all of that. Reduced trade with the EU, a net decline in the balance of payments, by then job losses and export businesses that are kaput will tell the story. 

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8 hours ago, yelims said:

I posted eurostat figures for January AND February imports from uk down in half, that’s 2 full months 

Yes. And at a guess I expect the figures to continue to be bad, maybe not quite as bad but still very bad.

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12 hours ago, mark hughes said:

So disbelieve the ONS then?

The ONS measure what they are told to measure.  So they are told not to include housing in inflation, then that is what they do.

If a house is an investment, then why should it be included in inflation?

If a house is essential shelter then it should be included in inflation.

You can't have it both ways.

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14 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

With the BJ regime, you can't go far wrong by disbelieving everything they say, and pushing back against everything they do.

They’re actually tabling a motion for an inquiry discuss BJs lying. Bit of a stunt but I suppose it’s a sign everybody is getting tired of it.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/apr/19/parties-inquiry-boris-johnson-failurehonest

 

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1 hour ago, yelims said:

 

Entirely predictable. These jobs have been done by immigrants for decades. Brexiters never cared about them until they became a useful moralising weapon to use to end freedom of movement.

Now that freedom of movement has ended brexiters can go back to not caring in the slightest, exhibited by the complete absence of any of them mentioning farm workers since 01/01/2021.

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On 17/04/2021 at 16:49, IMHAL said:

This is really funny. You replied to Huggy who is himslef 'apparently' a bitcoin and Tesla holder and comparatively rich with it. Too funny.

 

Only Bitcoin for me along with some shiny silver and gold stuff. No Tesla in my portfolio, that'll be @markyh and maybe others.

Not 'rich' yet, but nicely into the 6 figures of profitz 😄 I'll be rich when I buy a house that is commensurate to my education, skill, and standing....such as:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/82620901#/

Nice to see in picture 1 that they are not afraid of backing the UK. No kneeling there. I like that.

Edited by Huggy
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22 minutes ago, Huggy said:

Only Bitcoin for me along with some shiny silver and gold stuff. No Tesla in my portfolio, that'll be @markyh and maybe others.

Not 'rich' yet, but nicely into the 6 figures of profitz 😄 I'll be rich when I buy a house that is commensurate to my education, skill, and standing....such as:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/82620901#/

Nice to see in picture 1 that they are not afraid of backing the UK. No kneeling there. I like that.

Surely, the embrace of Bitcoin is predicated on a contemptuous disdain for Sterling?

Traitor!

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