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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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1 minute ago, NoHPCinTheUK said:

The real problem now is to find a solution and given the actual constitution framework of the UK, the answer must come from Westminster. The current picture is that of a country extremely divided. The solution we have now is a path described by the Tories which consist of an unclear road to Global Britain plus a sort of confrontation with the EU. What it’s clear to me is that this agenda is not clearly understood nor accepted by let’s say 50% of the country. This is a big problem for the UK and the government it self as it clearly undermines all efforts to deploy the same project (if there is any) which due to its scale needs the largest possible consent in all layers of society. 

 

I agree. But the Tories have a few things thing on their side.

Te willingness of the population to be fed propaganda. There is no doubt this is a large part of what the Tories are about now, hence paying for misleading newspaper articles fudging statistics and proclaiming how good brexit is.

The other thing the Tories have going for them is an intelligence agency and other officials they can use to further their ideology and undermine the EU. I have no doubt that there will be work going on behind the scenes to undermine the EU in various trade negotiations with third parties, supply chains, business sectors, and so on.

 

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I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

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4 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

I agree. But the Tories have a few things thing on their side.

Te willingness of the population to be fed propaganda. There is no doubt this is a large part of what the Tories are about now, hence paying for misleading newspaper articles fudging statistics and proclaiming how good brexit is.

The other thing the Tories have going for them is an intelligence agency and other officials they can use to further their ideology and undermine the EU. I have no doubt that there will be work going on behind the scenes to undermine the EU in various trade negotiations with third parties, supply chains, business sectors, and so on.

 

This is a media bubble and every bubble eventually bursts. 

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This current government is extremely focused on one thing: making Brexit a success. This is a legitimate political goal, and quite obvious given the political capital spent over the past decade. What I’m trying to say is that what is actually been pursued is a very unclear path, someone says they might have a secret weapon ready to be deployed at some point however I don’t think this is the case as the government would surely actively promote it. We’ve seen news rapidly disappearing from the press (the pacific trade deal) given their actual weight, the Singapore option not being discussed anymore as it’s clearly a dream rather than a feasible option. All it’s left is a deal with the US, which might come, but we still don’t know under which terms. On top of that, Biden couldn’t have been clearer in his recent comments: Europe must be a stable region in the world, and anything trying to undermine this fact will be seen as hostile development in the WH. I wouldn’t be surprised if the EU actually reached a FTA with the US earlier than us at this point, they already agreed on financial services and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Biden administration would start seeing a trade deal with the US as a weapon to further cement the EU integration, which appears to be of great importance for them. 

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Tories are being incredibly stupid and reckless, EU parliament has not voted for deal yet, it’s approval (or lack of) will now be held indefinitely over the necks of British businesses, any time trade with Eu could completely breakdown, no certainty.

 

EU can also double down and make life difficult for anyone from uk exporting into EU by adding extra requirements on shipments to prove the money used was not a source of laundering, which seeing that uk financial sector is basically a giant money laundering operation into half the world’s tax havens uk operates, would be hard to prove.

 

also make it a requirement for any shipment from uk to Eu be registered with a database, criminal offence anyone caught importing into Eu with proof of documentation being registered in this system. That way non compliance instantly makes anyone a smuggler criminal and ensure imports from uk decline further 

 

so far the Tories been doing all the damage to uk economy with Eu looking on in amazement, any ******wittery could be repaid by further damage to uk economy 

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1 minute ago, yelims said:

Tories are being incredibly stupid and reckless, EU parliament has not voted for deal yet, it’s approval (or lack of) will now be held indefinitely over the necks of British businesses, any time trade with Eu could completely breakdown, no certainty.

 

EU can also double down and make life difficult for anyone from uk exporting into EU by adding extra requirements on shipments to prove the money used was not a source of laundering, which seeing that uk financial sector is basically a giant money laundering operation into half the world’s tax havens uk operates, would be hard to prove.

 

also make it a requirement for any shipment from uk to Eu be registered with a database, criminal offence anyone caught importing into Eu with proof of documentation being registered in this system. That way non compliance instantly makes anyone a smuggler criminal and ensure imports from uk decline further 

 

so far the Tories been doing all the damage to uk economy with Eu looking on in amazement, any ******wittery could be repaid by further damage to uk economy 

I think that, as many suspected, they're trying to start a trade war.

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59 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

I think that, as many suspected, they're trying to start a trade war.

They need a trade war to keep nationalistic fever high. Without this they won't be able to stay in power. It is about protecting their narrow interests, even at the expense of the country. It works because there is a relative big minority people in the UK, who still live in the past.        

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16 hours ago, yelims said:

Tories are being incredibly stupid and reckless, EU parliament has not voted for deal yet, it’s approval (or lack of) will now be held indefinitely over the necks of British businesses, any time trade with Eu could completely breakdown, no certainty.

 

EU can also double down and make life difficult for anyone from uk exporting into EU by adding extra requirements on shipments to prove the money used was not a source of laundering, which seeing that uk financial sector is basically a giant money laundering operation into half the world’s tax havens uk operates, would be hard to prove.

 

also make it a requirement for any shipment from uk to Eu be registered with a database, criminal offence anyone caught importing into Eu with proof of documentation being registered in this system. That way non compliance instantly makes anyone a smuggler criminal and ensure imports from uk decline further 

 

so far the Tories been doing all the damage to uk economy with Eu looking on in amazement, any ******wittery could be repaid by further damage to uk economy 

The EU should have voted on the current trading agreement last Friday. On Thursday there was more ******wittery by Tories re NI protocol and breaking law again. Some are saying that UK government is trying to force EU to react and force us to abandon EU trade agreement and go for a No deal brexit with the bonus of being able to blame the EU for it. This is what the nasty core of the cabinet want in order to achieve their wet dream of a Freeport, open money laundering, world casino, money mincing machine. 

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16 hours ago, slawek said:

They need a trade war to keep nationalistic fever high. Without this they won't be able to stay in power. It is about protecting their narrow interests, even at the expense of the country. It works because there is a relative big minority people in the UK, who still live in the past.        

Yes.

53 minutes ago, steve99 said:

The EU should have voted on the current trading agreement last Friday. On Thursday there was more ******wittery by Tories re NI protocol and breaking law again. Some are saying that UK government is trying to force EU to react and force us to abandon EU trade agreement and go for a No deal brexit with the bonus of being able to blame the EU for it. This is what the nasty core of the cabinet want in order to achieve their wet dream of a Freeport, open money laundering, world casino, money mincing machine. 

Yes.

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F*** Business and "Politics is everything" comments from BJ sums up the mindset of his and his cabinet .

We have a country run by idiots who really are struck in their bubble. They are still talking about Global Britain, destroying trade with our biggest trading partner. a tunnel (and rail system) to Northern Ireland(!?!).

Bonkers nut jobs.

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They trying to provoke EU to walk away so they get their hardest Brexit possible while stocking jingoists and nationalists.

 

however I suspect EU will just run circles around them again. What will happen is serious non tariff barriers will go up for imports from uk to eu, for example more paperwork with threat of criminal prosecution if wrong on anyone not declaring all their imports from uk in a Database or stricter anti laundering rules where importer has to prove proceeds of crime not involved in the money changing hands if dealing with uk business.

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From over here (plenty of exposure to British print/tv media in Ireland) it’s all becoming a bit sad and predictable 

 

the sheeple are busy worrying about Meghan while barely any mention of businesses wiped out by Brexit and Covid doublewhammy, and constant crowing on about “aren’t we great with our first doze vaccinations because we not in Eu” while ignoring that uk was in Eu when it chose its approach

 

and of course my eyes roll when one realises that death rate in Ireland is a fraction of uk (after adjusting for population) despite getting absolutely walloped with uk variant in January, or that our % of population with both doses is higher than uk

 

the Tories with support of media are just incredible to behold, and now they are pocking that hornets nest that is Northern Ireland 

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4 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

F*** Business and "Politics is everything" comments from BJ sums up the mindset of his and his cabinet .

We have a country run by idiots who really are struck in their bubble. They are still talking about Global Britain, destroying trade with our biggest trading partner. a tunnel (and rail system) to Northern Ireland(!?!).

Bonkers nut jobs.

Boiling fudge according to Simon Jenkins:

Quote

 

Frost’s haphazard negotiations left unresolved everything from Scottish fishing to City banking, policing and cultural exchanges. The Johnson/Frost line that “the EU needs us more than we need it” was always rubbish. But nothing was so glaring as the contradiction of trade with Northern Ireland. Britain could leave the customs union. Northern Ireland realistically could not.

Johnson has been boiling fudge ever since. Now the pan is burning. The simple and honest route is to ask Northern Irish voters what they want. They were never asked if they wanted to leave the customs union – any more than was the rest of the UK. That was Johnson’s idea. One day Britain will almost certainly reverse the idiocy and rejoin. Until that happens international law is clear, a border there must be. So ask Northern Ireland where it should be.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/08/boris-johnsons-brexit-northern-ireland-customs-union-border

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1 minute ago, NoHPCinTheUK said:

I’m extremely worried about the recent developments with regards to the Royal Family. This show was the last thing the country needed right now. 

Right wing Media has  always had an element of racism and the right wing public lap it up.

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Thus, Frost, is considering allowing “lighter touch” controls on imports from 1 April than are currently planned, and scaling back plans for full customs checks, including physical inspections, which are due to begin on 1 July.

Here again, we see a total detachment from reality. Such a stratagem, beyond the temporary delays necessary to implement full controls, would almost certainly contravene WTO non-discrimination rules, with importers from non-EU countries screaming for equal treatment.

As the same time, with British exporters to EU Member States bearing the full brunt, of border checks, while EU export to the UK getting a free pass, sectors such as pig farming will continue to be heavily disadvantaged.

But the biggest blow of all would come with the EU reaction. With few controls on exports into the UK, the EU would be on its guard against UK exports using imported components or ingredients. Relaxed controls ay UK borders could be matched by tighter controls on UK goods entering the EU.

Every which way, it seems, Frost is all at sea with Brexit. Maybe he does have some dark plan, ready to roll out, but the indications from his own writings and actions are that we have a man who is basically out of his depth. He is planning actions aimed at solving problems which, progressively, are set to make them worse.

With that, one must take the view that Frost is more likely driven by stupidity than malice, even if the outcomes are very similar.

https://www.turbulenttimes.co.uk/news/brexit/brexit-frost-out-of-his-depth/

Smart Brexiteer is disgusted.

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UK lost market share in US., Germany and China

The UK lost market share in the US, Germany and China, thanks to the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and Brexit chaos on trade. In some key export destinations the UK seems to have suffered a sharper decline, experienced a slower recovery, and seen its global competitiveness dwindle.

The UK’s decline in exports to the U.S. appeared the sharpest in both absolute and relative terms.

The combination of COVID, Brexit and the UK’s long-term productivity challenges will put British businesses in an adverse position for the foreseeable future.

fxstreet

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29 minutes ago, rollover said:

UK lost market share in US., Germany and China

The UK lost market share in the US, Germany and China, thanks to the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and Brexit chaos on trade. In some key export destinations the UK seems to have suffered a sharper decline, experienced a slower recovery, and seen its global competitiveness dwindle.

The UK’s decline in exports to the U.S. appeared the sharpest in both absolute and relative terms.

The combination of COVID, Brexit and the UK’s long-term productivity challenges will put British businesses in an adverse position for the foreseeable future.

fxstreet

So Brexit has made us less internationalist in much of the rest of the world, including outside Europe.

The most impactful British export in recent times seems to be the Kent Variant.

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3 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

Thus, Frost, is considering allowing “lighter touch” controls on imports from 1 April than are currently planned, and scaling back plans for full customs checks, including physical inspections, which are due to begin on 1 July.

Here again, we see a total detachment from reality. Such a stratagem, beyond the temporary delays necessary to implement full controls, would almost certainly contravene WTO non-discrimination rules, with importers from non-EU countries screaming for equal treatment.

As the same time, with British exporters to EU Member States bearing the full brunt, of border checks, while EU export to the UK getting a free pass, sectors such as pig farming will continue to be heavily disadvantaged.

But the biggest blow of all would come with the EU reaction. With few controls on exports into the UK, the EU would be on its guard against UK exports using imported components or ingredients. Relaxed controls ay UK borders could be matched by tighter controls on UK goods entering the EU.

Every which way, it seems, Frost is all at sea with Brexit. Maybe he does have some dark plan, ready to roll out, but the indications from his own writings and actions are that we have a man who is basically out of his depth. He is planning actions aimed at solving problems which, progressively, are set to make them worse.

With that, one must take the view that Frost is more likely driven by stupidity than malice, even if the outcomes are very similar.

https://www.turbulenttimes.co.uk/news/brexit/brexit-frost-out-of-his-depth/

Smart Brexiteer is disgusted.

Something about control of our borders. . . . 

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