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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

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7 minutes ago, TheBlueCat said:

Well, looks like we're actually going to trigger article 50. I for one never thought we'd get this far.

...you are now in the real world ...not the elitist pseudo intellectual fantasy of the champagne socialist misfits .....:rolleyes: ...ps you are looking on from Toronto...

Edited by South Lorne
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5 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Quite a few comments on the news programmes tonight that are not going to impose a cut off date on FoM rights for EU citizens who arrive before we Brexit. I suppose that won't be a surprise to many on here but I can see it going down badly with many Leave voters.

 

 

With just leave voters ? 

I assume you are also not particularly looking forward to the real possibility of  an invasion of EU citizens mainly from the east in the few months prior to the date ?

Incredibly dangerous game imo. It could get to emergency levels where extra border controls have to be introduced - laws or no laws standing in their way.

I hope not - but if they go down this way i really don't see why millions of EE won't pop over in the weeks before. Why wouldn't they ? Literally nothing to lose. 

 

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7 hours ago, South Lorne said:

...you are the type who is not required in the UK ...we are stronger than enough to become a nation that will break away from the shackles which is  a crumbling set up known  as the EU..non democratic comprising of MEPs with no power and the unelected monopolise  all the power ...boo hoo to that ..you are the Lord Haw Haw of the 21st Century ....I don't wish you any luck ....:rolleyes:

So what is your contribution to the UK?  How much tax do you pay?  Have you ever contributed to it's defence?  You are just undermining the UK with petty nationalistic arguments inspired by Russian propaganda and interference.  Who is the Lord Haw Haw in reality?

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2 hours ago, ccc said:

With just leave voters ? 

I assume you are also not particularly looking forward to the real possibility of  an invasion of EU citizens mainly from the east in the few months prior to the date ?

Incredibly dangerous game imo. It could get to emergency levels where extra border controls have to be introduced - laws or no laws standing in their way.

I hope not - but if they go down this way i really don't see why millions of EE won't pop over in the weeks before. Why wouldn't they ? Literally nothing to lose. 

 

I don't think you need to worry, there won't be any influx (if there was any pent up demand we would have seen an influx in the run up to invoking A50, as many people thought that would be cut off date).

The truth is we have already passed the peak immigration from the EE states. I saw (but unfortunately cannot find it again) an annual breakdown of the immigration from the EE states showing that migration peaks about five years after accession and then gradually tails off, Polish net migration is already down to about 30% of its peak.

In two years time we will be well into in that tail and EE migration will be falling rapidly. The link below is from migration watch only goes up to 2015 but shows the reducing trajectory. https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/statistics-population-country-birth/#create-graph 

 

 

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The guardian claims it has a leaked copy of the EU negotiating principles.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/29/first-eu-response-to-article-50-takes-tough-line-on-transitional-deal

I expect this bit won't go down well.

  • Britain should pay all its liabilities “arising from outstanding commitments as well as make provision for off-balance sheet items, contingent liabilities and other financial costs that arise directly as a result of its withdrawal”.
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21 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I don't think you need to worry, there won't be any influx (if there was any pent up demand we would have seen an influx in the run up to invoking A50, as many people thought that would be cut off date).

The truth is we have already passed the peak immigration from the EE states. I saw (but unfortunately cannot find it again) an annual breakdown of the immigration from the EE states showing that migration peaks about five years after accession and then gradually tails off, Polish net migration is already down to about 30% of its peak.

In two years time we will be well into in that tail and EE migration will be falling rapidly. The link below is from migration watch only goes up to 2015 but shows the reducing trajectory. https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/statistics-population-country-birth/#create-graph 

 

 

You are talking about what has happened in the past to those deciding to move to other countries following the joining of the EU.

We are talking about a situation here where any one of 500 million people could decide to come to the UK by a certain date in the knowledge that doing so may long term provide them with dual nationality and residency.

You honestly don't see any reason why this could potentially lead to an influx of millions ?!

For what reason or not - the UK is still one of the main 'go to' countries on the planet in terms of a general desire to move here and live here long term.

Its an incredibly dangerous game IMO and could lead to massive problems for ports like Calais etc.. in the lead up to the final 'day'.

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8 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The guardian claims it has a leaked copy of the EU negotiating principles.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/29/first-eu-response-to-article-50-takes-tough-line-on-transitional-deal

I expect this bit won't go down well.

  • Britain should pay all its liabilities “arising from outstanding commitments as well as make provision for off-balance sheet items, contingent liabilities and other financial costs that arise directly as a result of its withdrawal”.

You forgot the final bit:

"Or we'll scweam & scweam & scweam till we're thick"

 

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2 hours ago, ccc said:
1 hour ago, hotairmail said:

 

You are talking about what has happened in the past to those deciding to move to other countries following the joining of the EU.

We are talking about a situation here where any one of 500 million people could decide to come to the UK by a certain date in the knowledge that doing so may long term provide them with dual nationality and residency.

You honestly don't see any reason why this could potentially lead to an influx of millions ?!

For what reason or not - the UK is still one of the main 'go to' countries on the planet in terms of a general desire to move here and live here long term.

Its an incredibly dangerous game IMO and could lead to massive problems for ports like Calais etc.. in the lead up to the final 'day'.

No because those millions if they existed, or at least a good proportion of them, would have rushed here before today to be sure they got in before any cut off date.   As there is absolutely no sign off any rush to beat the A50 invocation date we can be fairly sure that they don't exist.

I expect that by 2019, the EU immigration will have fallen significantly simply because most EU citizens who want to come are already here.

Edited by Confusion of VIs
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24 minutes ago, hotairmail said:

Clive Crook: how bad Brexit is depends on the parties and what they do.

Says Britain was an outlier anyway - it was already halfway out the door anyway when it refused the single currency and the notion of ever closer union.

 

So this is really Brexit Part Deux....over to you Brownie baby....

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-03-29/brexit-doesn-t-have-to-be-a-disaster

 

The other way of looking at it is that the UK managed to get itself in a privileged position whereby it had all the benefits of membership at a discounted cost and retained its economic freedom. 

NB the attached article seems to be a pretty fair summary of the position.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The other way of looking at it is that the UK managed to get itself in a privileged position whereby it had all the benefits of membership at a discounted cost and retained its economic freedom. 

NB the attached article seems to be a pretty fair summary of the position.

 

 

 

Have you seen our net contribution to the EU? Only Germany's is bigger (£14bn c.f. £12bn), France is about £6bn & nearly all the rest beneficiaries. 

Not a particularly privileged position I would suggest.

 

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BTW, it looks like the EU thinks the U.K. can't leave until 2022, and that Brexit will be subject to EU law. So expect more court cases.

2022 is also the date I have penned in for a second referendum. I'm going to see if I can find a bookies offer odds. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, ****-eyed octopus said:

Have you seen our net contribution to the EU? Only Germany's is bigger (£14bn c.f. £12bn), France is about £6bn & nearly all the rest beneficiaries. 

Not a particularly privileged position I would suggest.

 

In the scheme of things these numbers are peanuts both Germany and the UK (NB According to the treasury our net contribution for 2016 was £8.6bn) benefit massively from membership of the single market. 

If we crash out on WTO terms the Treasuries current estimate is that it will cost us 7.5% of GDP and £45bn per year in lost tax revenues. I wouldn't like to be a Chancellor trying to balance the budget in these circumstances. 

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1 hour ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

BTW, it looks like the EU thinks the U.K. can't leave until 2022, and that Brexit will be subject to EU law. So expect more court cases.

2022 is also the date I have penned in for a second referendum. I'm going to see if I can find a bookies offer odds. 

 

 

If it's possible for every member state to slap in an A50 notice, just to see what concessions they can get, the EU would be chaos and I'm sure they know that.

Put in your A50, see what you can get, then have a referendum on the offer.  If you like it, fantastic you can go on favourable terms, if you don't like it, stay in.  Can you see this being on the table?

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4 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

No because those millions if they existed, or at least a good proportion of them, would have rushed here before today to be sure they got in before any cut off date.   As there is absolutely no sign off any rush to beat the A50 invocation date we can be fairly sure that they don't exist.

I expect that by 2019, the EU immigration will have fallen significantly simply because most EU citizens who want to come are already here.

I disagree. Because there has been no indication of a cut off date so far.

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1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

In the scheme of things these numbers are peanuts both Germany and the UK (NB According to the treasury our net contribution for 2016 was £8.6bn) benefit massively from membership of the single market. 

If we crash out on WTO terms the Treasuries current estimate is that it will cost us 7.5% of GDP and £45bn per year in lost tax revenues. I wouldn't like to be a Chancellor trying to balance the budget in these circumstances. 

Can you remind me who the last chancellor was who didn't run a deficit? I've forgotten it's been so long.

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1 hour ago, SpectrumFX said:

Can you remind me who the last chancellor was who didn't run a deficit? I've forgotten it's been so long.

Indeed deficits have little or nothing to do with the EU. They are created by the same bunch we think article 50 will give more powers to.

Greece or Germany? The choice is yours.

i suspect we will need an IMF bailout within the next 2 years due to Brexit+unfunded boomer pensions. 

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7 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Indeed deficits have little or nothing to do with the EU. They are created by the same bunch we think article 50 will give more powers to.

Greece or Germany? The choice is yours.

i suspect we will need an IMF bailout within the next 2 years due to Brexit+unfunded boomer pensions. 

Is this before we rejoin the EU or after 

Edited by long time lurking
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5 minutes ago, long time lurking said:

Is this before we rejoin the EU or after 

Before, unless we don't leave at all which is still possible.

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