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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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30 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

See what I mean - apoplexy...

"No, can't have any potential long-term good news, we need to concentrate on the inevitable temporary disruption that's happening because of the change!"

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I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

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On 29/09/2020 at 18:03, NobodyInParticular said:

We're probably looking at Nissan leaving Sunderland very soon with little time for transition. In Europe it will be still be potentially slightly cheaper to make cars for the European market in Europe due to lower wage costs in some areas compared to Japan and lower transport costs as not all the components of Japanese cars are made in Japan. The other factor is economies of scale, of course, which would tend to suggest centralisation in Japan, but if you have two factories with pretty similar costs then taking one apart and building anew somewhere else doesn't make a lot of sense. If you have a factory which suddenly has much higher costs (import costs of the components not made in the UK, JIT issues) then it can make sense to close it.

Also building in the EU makes handy use of all the trade deals the EU has with other countries that Japan may not have or with as favourable terms. Building in the UK allows export of the two Micras a decade that the Faroese might want.

I thought I'd search on "Sunderland" in this thread. There are many references: this is a recent one - from last September. (Emphases mine) :)

Edited by dryrot
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1 hour ago, dugsbody said:

I personally don't understand the argument by Nissan. I'm not sure how brexit actually gives them a competitive advantage but unless I'm missing something it boils down to "rival companies not located in the UK must pay tariffs on their imports"?

Can someone clear it up?

I'm confused  by it too. They now have to spend a hundred million building a battery factory, which is good for UK jobs, but for Nissan? The Nissan electric SUV is being built in Japan, I assume the decision will now be reversed? 

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1 hour ago, dugsbody said:

I personally don't understand the argument by Nissan. I'm not sure how brexit actually gives them a competitive advantage but unless I'm missing something it boils down to "rival companies not located in the UK must pay tariffs on their imports"?

Can someone clear it up?

I've got a recollection that there are no tariffs on car parts from the rest of the world, unlike in the EU where there are.  That was the plan anyway.

Cars for export to the EU will have to follow rules of origin, but the rules will be different for other markets.  So, there is a certain flexibility to build on going forward, which they would not have within the EU.

We also have the Japan/UK trade deal where Nissan was probably at the forefront of the mind when they agreed it.

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28 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

"No, can't have any potential long-term good news, we need to concentrate on the inevitable temporary disruption that's happening because of the change!"

You are bleeding right now (Nissan factory in Sunderland not producing because brexit as predicted) due to self inflicted cutting of the nose (aka Brexit) but hey there might be mascara available for the eyes above the hole where nose used to be (the Nissan chief said that in future MAY produce batteries there)

 

it’s hilarious how this is being spun by Brexiteers yet when one scratches and sniffs under surface the body is rotting 

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9 minutes ago, kzb said:

I've got a recollection that there are no tariffs on car parts from the rest of the world, unlike in the EU where there are.  That was the plan anyway.

Cars for export to the EU will have to follow rules of origin, but the rules will be different for other markets.  So, there is a certain flexibility to build on going forward, which they would not have within the EU.

We also have the Japan/UK trade deal where Nissan was probably at the forefront of the mind when they agreed it.

So what is the Nissan Sunderland market? (When using too many imported car parts)

  • EU
  • Asia
  • North America
  • UK
  • Africa ?
Edited by Freki
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Its explained better here. Basically, the trade deal is better because it allows the UK plants to continue as before and export to the EU. Not more competitive, just more competitive than no deal.

Batteries for the top-rung 62kWh version of the Leaf electric hatchback are currently produced in the USA and imported to the UK, while lower-capacity 40kWh units are built at Sunderland by Chinese firm Envision Group, which will also handle production of the larger units.

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry-news/nissan-will-build-batteries-uk-sustain-sunderland-plant

 

New models now under consideration in the Uk, after being blocked by Brexit.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Freki said:

So what is the Nissan Sunderland market? (When using too many imported car parts)

  • EU
  • Asia
  • North America
  • UK
  • Africa ?

That's now, what about the future?

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12 minutes ago, yelims said:

You are bleeding right now (Nissan factory in Sunderland not producing because brexit as predicted) due to self inflicted cutting of the nose (aka Brexit) but hey there might be mascara available for the eyes above the hole where nose used to be (the Nissan chief said that in future MAY produce batteries there)

 

it’s hilarious how this is being spun by Brexiteers yet when one scratches and sniffs under surface the body is rotting 

I don't understand why you are complaining.  Surely anything that damages Britain is good to you people?  I would've thought you'd all be riverdancing down the Liffey.

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17 minutes ago, yelims said:

You are bleeding right now (Nissan factory in Sunderland not producing because brexit as predicted) due to self inflicted cutting of the nose (aka Brexit) but hey there might be mascara available for the eyes above the hole where nose used to be (the Nissan chief said that in future MAY produce batteries there)

 

it’s hilarious how this is being spun by Brexiteers yet when one scratches and sniffs under surface the body is rotting 

It's hilarious seeing people so addicted to finding bad news that they treat the temporary as the ongoing, set in stone forevermore future. Utterly desperate to paint as negative a picture as possible because in their minds the idea that Brexit is not the end of the world is so alien it cannot be true, so every effort has to be made to try to jam reality into the narrative that we'll be living in Mad Max Land in a couple of years, no matter that it doesn't fit at all.

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10 minutes ago, kzb said:

That's now, what about the future?

I don't know, you are claiming increased competitiveness, but we both don't see any market for it. What do you expect to change in the future? The EU to relax the rules over the parts and their country of origin? the US waiting for the UK to ship some? Already 5 factories between Mexico and the USA

Africa? I can count 4 factories, one of them under construction in Morocco. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nissan#Manufacturing_locations

So what is Sunderland going to be?

Yes it is great that Nissan is investing more money on its Sunderland operation, and that seems to be thanks to the fairly frictionless trade deal the EU and the UK just signed. Put another way, the investment decision could have happened earlier if not for the 4 years of Brexit limbo 

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12 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

It's hilarious seeing people so addicted to finding bad news that they treat the temporary as the ongoing, set in stone forevermore future. Utterly desperate to paint as negative a picture as possible because in their minds the idea that Brexit is not the end of the world is so alien it cannot be true, so every effort has to be made to try to jam reality into the narrative that we'll be living in Mad Max Land in a couple of years, no matter that it doesn't fit at all.

It’s hilarious how Brexiteers are trying to spin an existing company not leaving (tho not producing either due to brexit) as a positive 

especially when the reason they want to remain is somewhat remaining (ha) access to European market which Brexiteers did not want as it still ties uk to Eu somewhat

if uk remained this wouldn’t even be a story

more here https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2021/01/get-ready-for-long-brexit.html?m=1

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6 minutes ago, Freki said:

I don't know, you are claiming increased competitiveness, but we both don't see any market for it. What do you expect to change in the future? The EU to relax the rules over the parts and their country of origin? the US waiting for the UK to ship some? Already 5 factories between Mexico and the USA

Africa? I can count 4 factories, one of them under construction in Morocco. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nissan#Manufacturing_locations

So what is Sunderland going to be?

Yes it is great that Nissan is investing more money on its Sunderland operation, and that seems to be thanks to the fairly frictionless trade deal the EU and the UK just signed. Put another way, the investment decision could have happened earlier if not for the 4 years of Brexit limbo 

They have not committed to investment nor actually spent a penny

 

the direct quote from Nissan chief is that they MAY do so


I MAY become a millionaire one day too 😀

Yet his words got twisted and spun. 

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Got it, Every other manufacture will have to raise prices but not Nissan. 

 

Nissan also believes it has an advantage when selling to UK customers, as cars from rivals are likely to become less competitive because of non-tariff barriers leading to price rises.

https://www.ft.com/content/d2489ca9-0327-4a85-88c8-d6e7ca4eca55

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47 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

It's hilarious seeing people so addicted to finding bad news that they treat the temporary as the ongoing, set in stone forevermore future. Utterly desperate to paint as negative a picture as possible because in their minds the idea that Brexit is not the end of the world is so alien it cannot be true, so every effort has to be made to try to jam reality into the narrative that we'll be living in Mad Max Land in a couple of years, no matter that it doesn't fit at all.

I think it is more that none of us trust brexiters because they spent 40 years lying about the EU and we naturally expect them to continue lying.

I'm genuinely curious, can you explain why brexit gives Nissan a competitive advantage? Is it because of what I said, they already have a base in the UK and therefore tariffs on other companies help Nissan?

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24 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Got it, Every other manufacture will have to raise prices but not Nissan. 

 

Nissan also believes it has an advantage when selling to UK customers, as cars from rivals are likely to become less competitive because of non-tariff barriers leading to price rises.

https://www.ft.com/content/d2489ca9-0327-4a85-88c8-d6e7ca4eca55

Ok, so we have a clearer picture. Why are brexiters claiming that increased tariffs on competitors are a good thing? 

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Just now, dugsbody said:

I'm genuinely curious, can you explain why brexit gives Nissan a competitive advantage? Is it because of what I said, they already have a base in the UK and therefore tariffs on other companies help Nissan?

By increasing the barriers to enter the UK market, Nissan the biggest car manufacturer , will be able to raise prices to UK customers and make higher profit.

Brexit: enabling the exploitation of British customers.

Note how Tesla have cut EU prices by about 5K, but not in the UK, their biggest market in Europe.

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40 minutes ago, yelims said:

It’s hilarious how Brexiteers are trying to spin an existing company not leaving (tho not producing either due to brexit) as a positive 

especially when the reason they want to remain is somewhat remaining (ha) access to European market which Brexiteers did not want as it still ties uk to Eu somewhat

if uk remained this wouldn’t even be a story

more here https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2021/01/get-ready-for-long-brexit.html?m=1

It's only a story because it runs contrary to the endless "Brexit is the end of the world!" narrative that isn't actually turning out to be true. But hey, a lorry driver getting his ham sandwich confiscated - those are the real stories we need to hear about I suppose?

Some weird twists in your logic in your post there too, you seem to be assuming that not wanting to be a member of the EU means not wanting to trade with European countries. Still, that's the sort of mental gymnastics I've come to expect from Remainers; reality doesn't support their doom-mongering and give reasons to throw out insults, so just respond to the picture inside their heads rather than outside.

It would be a lot easy to respect them if they just admitted that they simply like the EU and are upset because they're not in something they like. That's an entirely reasonable basis for being pissed off.

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5 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

By increasing the barriers to enter the UK market, Nissan the biggest car manufacturer , will be able to raise prices to UK customers and make higher profit.

Brexit: enabling the exploitation of British customers.

Note how Tesla have cut EU prices by about 5K, but not in the UK, their biggest market in Europe.

Correct. Less competition equals higher prices in a captive market. Honda wins, competition suffers, choice suffers and we all end up paying more. This must be the definition of real Brexit win :huh:.

 

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1 minute ago, IMHAL said:

Correct. Less competition equals higher prices in a captive market. Honda wins, competition suffers, choice suffers and we all end up paying more. This must be the definition of real Brexit win :huh:.

 

Its bad for most  manufacturers who cannot afford to move their entire production to the UK. Good for Nissan and maybe a few more. We will see.

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1 minute ago, Riedquat said:

It's only a story because it runs contrary to the endless "Brexit is the end of the world!" narrative that isn't actually turning out to be true. But hey, a lorry driver getting his ham sandwich confiscated - those are the real stories we need to hear about I suppose?

Some weird twists in your logic in your post there too, you seem to be assuming that not wanting to be a member of the EU means not wanting to trade with European countries. Still, that's the sort of mental gymnastics I've come to expect from Remainers; reality doesn't support their doom-mongering and give reasons to throw out insults, so just respond to the picture inside their heads rather than outside.

It would be a lot easy to respect them if they just admitted that they simply like the EU and are upset because they're not in something they like. That's an entirely reasonable basis for being pissed off.

But the story is only a story because it is one of a very the few instances where Brexit has not resulted in a major company cutting investment to the UK in preferance to the EU. They are doing so because they see the potential in a captive market and with an eye to raising prices on the back of it. In that context, it's not really a good news story so much as an indicator of what Brexit really means for UK consumers.  

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