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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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1 minute ago, IMHAL said:

Welcome to the rich making out like bandits, and when it all goes paps up we get to pay and they get to be bailed out or run away.

The ordinary folk won't have a clue that they have been shafted. They will swallow 'it's those lazy poor people fault' or 'it's those immigrants fault' line every time. Absolutley depressing that the masses can fall for it every time. You get the leaders you deserve.

I'm for social liberty - be in a relationship with who or as many people you like provided everyone has given informed consent (so human adults only, no coercion), I don't care, and provided you aren't expecting state benefits for 17 spouses or to avoid tax.

But those who wield great power through the accumulation of capital flows should have sufficient controls that they can't utterly trash things deliberately or by accident. To me, the big question is what is sufficient. And I'd also say that workers' and human rights are vitally important parts of required protections, and a body like the EU, when functioning properly, can provide a useful enforcement mechanism and organising principle. 

And that ends the broadcast for the Particular Party.

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I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

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7 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

It's Mike Pence.

Who would have ever thought we'd want Pence in control, or that one of the most statesman like people in the USA would be Conan the Barbarian. 

2020 was weird, but 2021 has already hugely messed with my head. I'm wondering when I wake up in the shower like Bobby in 'Dallas'... 

Edited by NobodyInParticular
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1 minute ago, NobodyInParticular said:

Yes. At that point government either goes Keynesian (Chicago : he bad, except right now) or you have a cratered economy for a generation. So it's like bipolar: the up side is wild and fun, but the hangover is bad. 

It's like groundhog day. Keynes gets rolled out everytime the Chicago model fails....but only for long enough for them to socialise their losses.... then Chicago takes over to enact the whole sorry mess again....at our expense and their gain.

1 minute ago, NobodyInParticular said:

New economy, can't fail, anything else the road to serfdom. It's also the movement, being allied to Randian 'philosophy' that gives us the Sovereign Individual in its naked, Galtian glory. IMHO, YMMV, etc. It's also allied to founding myths of Bitcoin or IDS. 

I once bought into the 'free market' model....until I realised that it's a one way bet for the rich, heads they win and tails you lose. In theory, if the weak organisations are allowed to fail in an orderly manner it kind of makes sense...but...and it's a big but.... this is rarely the case as the impact to society can be so very big that governments intervene to reduce the impact, bail out the sector....socialise the losses etc etc. It's a great model if you are the right side (JRM, Big Banking, Finance etc). Sucks if you are the one paying for their failures ie 99% of us.  

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1 minute ago, IMHAL said:

It's like groundhog day. Keynes gets rolled out everytime the Chicago model fails....but only for long enough for them to socialise their losses.... then Chicago takes over to enact the whole sorry mess again....at our expense and their gain.

Indeed. 

1 minute ago, IMHAL said:

I once bought into the 'free market' model....until I realised that it's a one way bet for the rich, heads they win and tails you lose. In theory, if the weak organisations are allowed to fail in an orderly manner it kind of makes sense...but...and it's a big but.... this is rarely the case as the impact to society can be so very big that governments intervene to reduce the impact, bail out the sector....socialise the losses etc etc. It's a great model if you are the right side (JRM, Big Banking, Finance etc). Sucks if you are the one paying for their failures ie 99% of us.  

I'm in favour of free markets in the sense of minimal tariffs, but with LPFs, workers' rights, and sensible controls to avoid things getting messed up as you really can end up in a 'too big to fail' situation. And I think it also requires legislation to avoid monopolies. But I also feel that there should be democratically controlled alternatives for those things that people don't really get to decide on as much like healthcare, and a role got government in planning and stimulus. What that makes me poltically I don't know, but I don't really give a damn about pigeonholes. 

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7 minutes ago, NobodyInParticular said:

I'm for social liberty - be in a relationship with who or as many people you like provided everyone has given informed consent (so human adults only, no coercion), I don't care, and provided you aren't expecting state benefits for 17 spouses or to avoid tax.

But those who wield great power through the accumulation of capital flows should have sufficient controls that they can't utterly trash things deliberately or by accident. To me, the big question is what is sufficient. And I'd also say that workers' and human rights are vitally important parts of required protections, and a body like the EU, when functioning properly, can provide a useful enforcement mechanism and organising principle. 

And that ends the broadcast for the Particular Party.

You have my vote :) And yes, the big question is where you draw the line. Not easy to answer in theory...but we have lots of practice and that is telling us the line is currently drawn in favour of big finance....and the pendumum is about to get swung further their way if Danial Hannan, JRM et al get their way... it is what Brexit has been high jacked to do.

 

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1 minute ago, NobodyInParticular said:

Indeed. 

I'm in favour of free markets in the sense of minimal tariffs, but with LPFs, workers' rights, and sensible controls to avoid things getting messed up as you really can end up in a 'too big to fail' situation. And I think it also requires legislation to avoid monopolies. But I also feel that there should be democratically controlled alternatives for those things that people don't really get to decide on as much like healthcare, and a role got government in planning and stimulus. What that makes me poltically I don't know, but I don't really give a damn about pigeonholes. 

Yes to all of that.

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6 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

You have my vote :) And yes, the big question is where you draw the line. Not easy to answer in theory...but we have lots of practice and that is telling us the line is currently drawn in favour of big finance....and the pendumum is about to get swung further their way if Danial Hannan, JRM et al get their way... it is what Brexit has been high jacked to do.

The EU, for all the complaints by Corbyn, et al that it is corporatist, also contains bulwarks against the worst excesses. A state separated from that may not be in a position to resist such forces. But a modern democratic society should be for the benefit of the people, recognising the majority view, but I'd argue with decent principles to also protect the vulnerable. There's some family history which makes me a bit sensitive about that. 

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8 minutes ago, NobodyInParticular said:

Indeed. 

I'm in favour of free markets in the sense of minimal tariffs, but with LPFs, workers' rights, and sensible controls to avoid things getting messed up as you really can end up in a 'too big to fail' situation. And I think it also requires legislation to avoid monopolies. But I also feel that there should be democratically controlled alternatives for those things that people don't really get to decide on as much like healthcare, and a role got government in planning and stimulus. What that makes me poltically I don't know, but I don't really give a damn about pigeonholes. 

I think that makes you a Lefty. B)

Now clearly none of that will work, because Jacob Rees-Mogg's said so!

What we really need to do is pretend that 2008 didn't happen, OK?

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9134667/Rishi-Sunak-hails-chance-Big-Bang-2-0-City-London-Brexit.html

Rishi Sunak hails chance of 'Big Bang 2.0' for City of London after Brexit as he hints red tape will be slashed to help forge 'exciting' future

 

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15 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

I think that makes you a Lefty. B)

Now clearly none of that will work, because Jacob Rees-Mogg's said so!

What we really need to do is pretend that 2008 didn't happen, OK?

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9134667/Rishi-Sunak-hails-chance-Big-Bang-2-0-City-London-Brexit.html

Rishi Sunak hails chance of 'Big Bang 2.0' for City of London after Brexit as he hints red tape will be slashed to help forge 'exciting' future

 

It's a once in a lifetime opportunity to enact GFC 2.0 on the UK. The elite will make out big time and the masses will be left holding the can. Of course, the sugar high will be immense, and so will the hangover.

Hope any Brexiteers out there understand what they voted for.

Edited by IMHAL
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52 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

It's Mike Pence.

If Mike Pence said something that doesn't fit with their worldview they can close him down too.

The lesson is, you are only there on their say-so.

Edited by kzb
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1 hour ago, pig said:

Its definitely to do with Social Media - perhaps we can even specifically talk about SM Populism.

The most eye-opening 2020 moment for me was the QAnon phenomenon - I actually met somebody who has succumbed pretty badly despite on paper being an unlikely candidate.

It was useful because it was on the face of it nothing to do with Brexit, Trump, Left or Right  or whatever, like an abstract test case where you just look in and see astonishing patterns of credulity forming, an obsessive bending blurring abusing of facts.

SM takes you down that rabbit hole and keeps you there - I think by reinforcing an emotional or psychological crutch. Its not new in principle - David Koresh, Man never landed on the Moon etc - its new in its reach and the damage it can do to society.

 

I don't partake in any social media.  This is the only political forum I take part in regularly.

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9 minutes ago, kzb said:

If Mike Pence said something that doesn't fit with their worldview they can close him down too.

The lesson is, you are only there on their say-so.

A more obvious lesson would be don't commit treason against he country you were elected to lead. 

NB CNN's Wolf Blitzer special has some almost unbelievable shots of what was happening inside the Capitol building. Footage that Fox seemed unable to get hold of and showing just how close it came to becoming far more bloody attempted coup.   

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7 hours ago, IMHAL said:

You can't understand peoples opposition to Brexit because you are dismissing their objections and evidence as lies.

No, I don't generally say people are lying.  That is a trend to which I object, as you know.  I can understand peoples' opposition based on what they see as facts.  But it isn't that.  People have been hysterical, in tears.  This is what I don't get.

 

7 hours ago, IMHAL said:

But will you not just revert to type and dismiss our poor performance as the EU's fault, or say that our poor performance was inevitable either in or out, or it highlights our need to improve therefore Brexit is good.

How do you mean revert to type?  You have no idea of my type.  

You have already decided, it seems, that we will have poor performance relative to EU nations.  We don't know this yet.  However if after 8-10 years we are obviously struggling compared to France, Italy, Belgium et al, then I can fairly ascribe that to Brexit.

If there is actually no discernible difference, then we have to ask what were all the tears for?

If we do better than EU countries then that can be ascribed to Brexit also.

 

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29 minutes ago, kzb said:

If Mike Pence said something that doesn't fit with their worldview they can close him down too.

The lesson is, you are only there on their say-so.

You can hardly blame Twitter for not wanting to get embroiled in the overthrow of a democratic vote, still less to be seen promoting the cause of domestic terrorism.

Dettol Donnie should have read the T's and C's.

But hey, if he really thinks it's a FREEZE PEACH issue he can always set up his own social media platform!

 

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2 hours ago, pig said:

Its definitely to do with Social Media - perhaps we can even specifically talk about SM Populism.

The most eye-opening 2020 moment for me was the QAnon phenomenon - I actually met somebody who has succumbed pretty badly despite on paper being an unlikely candidate.

It was useful because it was on the face of it nothing to do with Brexit, Trump, Left or Right  or whatever, like an abstract test case where you just look in and see astonishing patterns of credulity forming, an obsessive bending blurring abusing of facts.

SM takes you down that rabbit hole and keeps you there - I think by reinforcing an emotional or psychological crutch. Its not new in principle - David Koresh, Man never landed on the Moon etc - its new in its reach and the damage it can do to society.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Social_Dilemma

The Social Dilemma was a reasonable summary of this phenomena-

Quote
  • The practice of using positive intermittent reinforcement in media development to keep users' attention for longer periods of time. It is mentioned that this psychological practice in media is similar to how slot machines work in Las Vegas, in which the user is unsure if and when something good will happen, so they continue to check their devices in hopes that something new will come.
  • People are highly likely to believe false information on the Internet, such as conspiracy theories, affecting off-screen behavior and lives.
    • False information on Twitter spreads six times faster than true information, according to an MIT study, because people have a greater emotional reaction towards fake news.[24]
    • Pizzagate was a popular conspiracy theory that circulated the internet in 2016 which claimed that politicians were associated with human trafficking, and that Comet Ping Pong was one of the locations where the events took place.[25] This type of phenomenon can have real-world effects that are dangerous to the public.[26]
    • Renée Diresta explains that the algorithms are biased towards false information because as more people show interest in such articles, it is recommended to more people.
    • The documentary also explains that due to false information having high success in grabbing user attention, it produces large amounts of revenue for social media companies. This can be partially attributed to the phenomenon known as clickbait.
  • 64% of the people in extremist groups on facebook, joined these groups because their algorithms lead them there. Algorithms push content that ignites outrage, hate, and amplifies biases within the data that is shown to them.

I also worry for the new generation who have had social media throughout their entire lives - the increases in self harm and suicide are tragic and worrying.

Sorry for going off-topic. On the Brexit debate I must admit I voted remain but it was a not an enthusiastic remain vote (mainly I saw who I would be aligning with if I voted leave), and found the whole debate utterly toxic with advocates on both sides of the debate exaggerating the supposed benefits and disadvantages of both options on the referendum ballot. Clearly it divided and tribalised the issue to the extreme point where an MP was even murdered. However, we are where we are now- can't see rejoin ever gaining traction because of the need to join the single currency.

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1 hour ago, kzb said:

No, I don't generally say people are lying.  That is a trend to which I object, as you know.  I can understand peoples' opposition based on what they see as facts.  But it isn't that.  People have been hysterical, in tears.  This is what I don't get.

 

How do you mean revert to type?  You have no idea of my type.  

By type I mean the prevalence of Brxiteer types we have on here who always have an excuse and justification for Brexit....no matter the evidence before them.

So for example, the justification for Brexit was that it would save us £15bn a year and this could go to the NHS....when it became apparent that Brexit was actually costing us far  more money/per year... well, this was plainly incorrect, yet it was a large part of the reason to vote leave.

1 hour ago, kzb said:

You have already decided, it seems, that we will have poor performance relative to EU nations.  We don't know this yet.  However if after 8-10 years we are obviously struggling compared to France, Italy, Belgium et al, then I can fairly ascribe that to Brexit.

I can't see us waiting 8-10 years of poor performance before enabling corrective action. I also can't see how Brexit could possibly lead to a long term positive outcome unless you count a bonfire of regulation (lower standards) and the possible sugar rush that this will bring on. But this will come at great cost to society.. You pick your poison.

1 hour ago, kzb said:

If there is actually no discernible difference, then we have to ask what were all the tears for?

If we do better than EU countries then that can be ascribed to Brexit also.

 

No discernerable difference in econmic terms and standard of living then agreed.

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8 hours ago, kzb said:

All my life I have been right about things and chances are this will be no different.

I honestly don't understand this intense emotional attachment to a man-made bureaucracy.  I'm 50:50 that you are all being paid to counter Brexit online, that is really the only way I could understand it.

As I've always said, we need to give this a few years to see how it turns out.  If, in 8-10 years time, it is obvious the EU is leaving us for dead then I will say my judgement was wrong.  That is the only evidence that counts now, not models concocted to output the desired result.  I still think few people will vote to rejoin in 8-10 years' time.

This is key.

I started to understand this when I was thinking about why Leavers who claimed to be coverted Remainers were so unconvincing. They would write, "I used to think that the EU was perfect, that the Europeans were all our our friends are were just like us. I then found out the EU is an imperfect fudge and learned how different we all are".

The assumption was that Remainers were utterly naive and thought dealing with Europe was easy peasy.

If you are interested in understanding, I would like to turn this on its head. What if Remainers think that the EU is an imperfect fudge and that the European nations are very different and far from all being our friends.

--------------------

A couple of years back, I compared the Remainers and Leavers by using the example of the building I live in. There is a shared garden and buidling which we all own jointly and we own our own flats within the building. There is a committee that meet up and run the building accounts arrange yard work and the bills. This takes money and we all chip in. We do this because it is necessary for us neighbours to work together even though we have nothing in common.

If we all lived in our own farmhouses on plots of land, we would not bother with this and would stick to ourselves.

My point had been that Remainer see Europe as being closely interconnected and like the building with flats in it. Leavers see Europe as being like the farm houses. Interestingly, most Leavers took the story to mean that Remainers wanted it to be like flats. Most remainers do not see it as a aspiration for Europe to like that, we accept that it is and consider an institution to deal with the coplexities of international trade, compromise and co-operation to better then nothing.

------------------------

Remainer typically know that trade across borders still has challenges, that the nations are very different and that compromise is difficult. That is why the EU is necessary.

Leavers think Remainers just want to have the EU when it is not necessary. So, they must think we are all the same, want us to be all the same or just think the EU is perfect. 

 

 

 

oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

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9 hours ago, kzb said:

Well, we've just been shown who is in charge in America.  It's not the President, it's Twitter.

Yes.

But the sides were opposite when it came to whether bakers had to accept a commission from a gay couple.

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33 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

This is key.

I started to understand this when I was thinking about why Leavers who claimed to be coverted Remainers were so unconvincing. They would write, "I used to think that the EU was perfect, that the Europeans were all our our friends are were just like us. I then found out the EU is an imperfect fudge and learned how different we all are".

The assumption was that Remainers were utterly naive and thought dealing with Europe was easy peasy.

If you are interested in understanding, I would like to turn this on its head. What if Remainers think that the EU is an imperfect fudge and that the European nations are very different and far from all being our friends.

--------------------

A couple of years back, I compared the Remainers and Leavers by using the example of the building I live in. There is a shared garden and buidling which we all own jointly and we own our own flats within the building. There is a committee that meet up and run the building accounts arrange yard work and the bills. This takes money and we all chip in. We do this because it is necessary for us neighbours to work together even though we have nothing in common.

If we all lived in our own farmhouses on plots of land, we would not bother with this and would stick to ourselves.

My point had been that Remainer see Europe as being closely interconnected and like the building with flats in it. Leavers see Europe as being like the farm houses. Interestingly, most Leavers took the story to mean that Remainers wanted it to be like flats. Most remainers do not see it as a aspiration for Europe to like that, we accept that it is and consider an institution to deal with the coplexities of international trade, compromise and co-operation to better then nothing.

------------------------

Remainer typically know that trade across borders still has challenges, that the nations are very different and that compromise is difficult. That is why the EU is necessary.

Leavers think Remainers just want to have the EU when it is not necessary. So, they must think we are all the same, want us to be all the same or just think the EU is perfect. 

 

 

 

oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

I like fudge. As far as I can tell the best fudge comes from the UK. But if I wanted soft, stinky cheese, I'd celebrate la difference and get something from France. And for good chocolate, it wouldn't be either. There's strength in the differences, and I find the different speeds or ways that people choose to live across Europe interesting and stimulating on the whole. There is convergence, but in culture it's more to do with TV than the EU. I don't think the working time directive makes German cheese more or less edible or the Italians drive better. 

 

The EU is a fudge precisely because it is trying to bring together all sorts of groups that can see the benefit of numbers but don't entirely agree. The UK is a fudge too. 

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