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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

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3 hours ago, IMHAL said:

As I said, he's full on gone all swivel eyed.

I agree. I am sure he was more moderate in the good old pre-Brexit done days.

It's given me a theory about how radicalisation works (not directed at you KZB). The doubling-down syndrome happens because people hate being wrong, so they must pursue more and more honey traps for the uninformed. It's an addictive drive. They all end up as food, totally digested, for the clever Venus Fly traps of misinformation.

Social media is the cancer and it's reached stage 4. It should be banned. Human beings were not meant to have so much nagging information at their fingertips.

 

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12 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

I agree. I am sure he was more moderate in the good old pre-Brexit done days.

It's given me a theory about how radicalisation works (not directed at you KZB). The doubling-down syndrome happens because people hate being wrong, so they must pursue more and more honey traps for the uninformed. It's an addictive drive. They all end up as food, totally digested, for the clever Venus Fly traps of misinformation.

Social media is the cancer and it's reached stage 4. It should be banned. Human beings were not meant to have so much nagging information at their fingertips.

 

I actually think that when people get to this point ie clutching at straws to justify their firmly held beliefs, they are nearing the end of that road. I would not be surprised if, after some reflection, they go our and do some wider research and conclude that they have been wrong. At least that is what many would do when their perception keeps conflicting with reality. 

Edited by IMHAL
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10 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

I actually think that when people get to this point ie clutching at straws to justify their firmly held beliefs, they are nearing the end of that road. I would not be surprised if, after some reflection, they go our and do some wider research and conclude that they have been wrong. At least that is what many would do when their perception keeps conflicting with reality. 

All my life I have been right about things and chances are this will be no different.

I honestly don't understand this intense emotional attachment to a man-made bureaucracy.  I'm 50:50 that you are all being paid to counter Brexit online, that is really the only way I could understand it.

As I've always said, we need to give this a few years to see how it turns out.  If, in 8-10 years time, it is obvious the EU is leaving us for dead then I will say my judgement was wrong.  That is the only evidence that counts now, not models concocted to output the desired result.  I still think few people will vote to rejoin in 8-10 years' time.

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39 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

I agree. I am sure he was more moderate in the good old pre-Brexit done days.

It's given me a theory about how radicalisation works (not directed at you KZB). The doubling-down syndrome happens because people hate being wrong, so they must pursue more and more honey traps for the uninformed. It's an addictive drive. They all end up as food, totally digested, for the clever Venus Fly traps of misinformation.

Social media is the cancer and it's reached stage 4. It should be banned. Human beings were not meant to have so much nagging information at their fingertips.

 

Well, we've just been shown who is in charge in America.  It's not the President, it's Twitter.

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3 minutes ago, kzb said:

All my life I have been right about things and chances are this will be no different.

That should tell you everything you need to know about your condition.

3 minutes ago, kzb said:

I honestly don't understand this intense emotional attachment to a man-made bureaucracy.  I'm 50:50 that you are all being paid to counter Brexit online, that is really the only way I could understand it.

You can't understand peoples opposition to Brexit because you are dismissing their objections and evidence as lies.

3 minutes ago, kzb said:

As I've always said, we need to give this a few years to see how it turns out.  If, in 8-10 years time, it is obvious the EU is leaving us for dead then I will say my judgement was wrong.  That is the only evidence that counts now, not models concocted to output the desired result.  I still think few people will vote to rejoin in 8-10 years' time.

But will you not just revert to type and dismiss our poor performance as the EU's fault, or say that our poor performance was inevitable either in or out, or it highlights our need to improve therefore Brexit is good.

Because, so far, those excuses have been the mainstay.

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33 minutes ago, markyh said:

"Governments dont rule the world, Goldman Sachs rules the world." 

(11) BBC Interview: "Goldman Sachs rules the world" - YouTube

 

There is no doubt that since Glass-Stegall was repealed in 1999, that financial institutions do rule the roost. They speculate with our money and when the go bust, they keep the rewards and make us pay for their losses through printing that 99% benefits the rich. The act was put in place after the stock market crash of the 1920 to prevent such a hugh missallocation. Yet in 1999 it was repealed and directly lead to 2008  great financial crash. 

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4 hours ago, IMHAL said:

 

 

1 hour ago, jonb2 said:

The doubling-down syndrome happens because people hate being wrong,

Me too, but sometimes I am wrong, as my wife points out :). Keynes: when presented with new facts I change my opinion. I like to think I follow that, although I expect I don't as much as I LIKE to think I do. 

1 hour ago, jonb2 said:

 

 

57 minutes ago, kzb said:

All my life I have been right about things and chances are this will be no different.

Hmmm... I've been right about some things, wrong about many. Hopefully I can tell the difference and learn. (Discuss). 

57 minutes ago, kzb said:

I'm 50:50 that you are all being paid to counter Brexit online, that is really the only way I could understand it.

That's a weird conclusion to come to. I definitely don't get a penny. Where do I apply for my stipend? :)

57 minutes ago, kzb said:

If, in 8-10 years time, it is obvious the EU is leaving us for dead then I will say my judgement was wrong. 

It's not the EU's doing, surely? It could be a very expensive mistake. 

57 minutes ago, kzb said:

That is the only evidence that counts now, not models concocted to output the desired result.

Indeed. I don't think ones showing 4% growth will be true long term. 

57 minutes ago, kzb said:

  I still think few people will vote to rejoin in 8-10 years' time.

We won't get the option, at least not as the UK. NI might be gone by then, in which case the UK won't exist anyway. 

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32 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

There is no doubt that since Glass-Stegall was repealed in 1999, that financial institutions do rule the roost. They speculate with our money and when the go bust, they keep the rewards and make us pay for their losses through printing that 99% benefits the rich. The act was put in place after the stock market crash of the 1920 to prevent such a hugh missallocation. Yet in 1999 it was repealed and directly lead to 2008  great financial crash. 

I think it's more that the economic theoretical basis shifted to the Chicago model and thus it was assumed that interests were aligned, new economy, end of boom and bust, etc. 

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1 hour ago, kzb said:

All my life I have been right about things and chances are this will be no different.

I honestly don't understand this intense emotional attachment to a man-made bureaucracy.  I'm 50:50 that you are all being paid to counter Brexit online, that is really the only way I could understand it.

As I've always said, we need to give this a few years to see how it turns out.  If, in 8-10 years time, it is obvious the EU is leaving us for dead then I will say my judgement was wrong.  That is the only evidence that counts now, not models concocted to output the desired result.  I still think few people will vote to rejoin in 8-10 years' time.

Unhinged. Your hubris is astonishing. You sound just like Trump, the bestest ever, although you might both have to locked in the same room to find out who really is the bestest. 

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19 hours ago, thecrashingisles said:

If you think that other countries exercising sovereignty over their own policies constitutes acting like a Mafia then something has gone wrong in your thinking.

I have never stated, thought, written, said or implied anything so ridiculous.

I think something has gone wrong with your justifications.

I did criticise your previous justification in terms of efficacy as being one that could equally apply to the effeciveness of the Mafia.

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1 hour ago, IMHAL said:

There is no doubt that since Glass-Stegall was repealed in 1999, that financial institutions do rule the roost. They speculate with our money and when the go bust, they keep the rewards and make us pay for their losses through printing that 99% benefits the rich. The act was put in place after the stock market crash of the 1920 to prevent such a hugh missallocation. Yet in 1999 it was repealed and directly lead to 2008  great financial crash. 

I agree almost 100% with the above.  I've highlighted the two specific bits where my opinion might subtly differ.

I suspect that financial institutions always have 'ruled the roost' - and, while I think the Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act to have been entirely unethical, I thnk that the extraordinary power of financial institutions goes back much further.  In 2008 to 2009 - I felt as if I had been blind-sided in an extraordinarily strange way.  I remembered, from childhood, having understood things like money-supply; why M3 was subverted by interest rate policy; why M4 had been adopted in the UK only - and had even understood the influences on politics and democracy.  (My parents were mean: they refused to let me watch cartoons - insisting upon the TV being tuned to "the money programme" - though, I was to find out over 20 years later, they didn't seem to have grasped anything it explained.)  My own surprise is that, in 2006-2008, it was as if I'd suffered amnesia... I'd not been considering the world using knowledge I had posessed since a very young age - it was as if my own life had prevented me from even thinking in relevant terms.  When I was 15, my school insisted that I did 'work experience' - and I elected to spend 2 weeks in an international bank.  I hated the experience - I learned absolutely nothing.  I didn't fathom why at the time... I guess, subconciously, I had come to act as if banks were not interesting - and they stopped getting any attention from me thereafter.  That had been an error of judgement on my part.

I'm not sure that "printing" neccessarily benefits the rich.  Creating new money out of thin air benefits whoever (directly or indirectly) gets to spend (or invest) that money.  It might be the rich - or it might be a party with political sway who happen not to be rich - per se.

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, A.steve said:

I agree almost 100% with the above.  I've highlighted the two specific bits where my opinion might subtly differ.

I suspect that financial institutions always have 'ruled the roost'.

True, but they had constraints previously that provided a certain degree of restraint. They still have constraints but those constraints are arguable not enough to put us all in hock to their excesses. 

2 hours ago, A.steve said:

I'm not sure that "printing" neccessarily benefits the rich.  Creating new money out of thin air benefits whoever (directly or indirectly) gets to spend (or invest) that money.  It might be the rich - or it might be a party with political sway who happen not to be rich - per se.

I'm quite sure that given any financial crash who benefits and who pays is entirely consistent with the asset and capital rich benefiting whilst the asset and capital poor have little or no opportunity to capitalise. The increased disparity between rich and poor are testament to that.

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3 hours ago, NobodyInParticular said:

I think it's more that the economic theoretical basis shifted to the Chicago model and thus it was assumed that interests were aligned, new economy, end of boom and bust, etc. 

Yes, you are right - the Chicago model, free marketeers, light touch regs, no or little government intervention........until the whole thing goes kaboom...then socialisation of losses and privatisation of profits.

The repeal of Glass Stegall came from this movement. And look where we are now.

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On 10/01/2021 at 10:42, pig said:

Yes I heard that - I thought they said they would maintain environmental standards ? Instead a few days out of transition and they are hacking away at all life on the planet lol

Not good, deregulation?....... anything goes when the whistle blows?;)

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6 hours ago, jonb2 said:

I agree. I am sure he was more moderate in the good old pre-Brexit done days.

It's given me a theory about how radicalisation works (not directed at you KZB). The doubling-down syndrome happens because people hate being wrong, so they must pursue more and more honey traps for the uninformed. It's an addictive drive. They all end up as food, totally digested, for the clever Venus Fly traps of misinformation.

Social media is the cancer and it's reached stage 4. It should be banned. Human beings were not meant to have so much nagging information at their fingertips.

 

Its definitely to do with Social Media - perhaps we can even specifically talk about SM Populism.

The most eye-opening 2020 moment for me was the QAnon phenomenon - I actually met somebody who has succumbed pretty badly despite on paper being an unlikely candidate.

It was useful because it was on the face of it nothing to do with Brexit, Trump, Left or Right  or whatever, like an abstract test case where you just look in and see astonishing patterns of credulity forming, an obsessive bending blurring abusing of facts.

SM takes you down that rabbit hole and keeps you there - I think by reinforcing an emotional or psychological crutch. Its not new in principle - David Koresh, Man never landed on the Moon etc - its new in its reach and the damage it can do to society.

 

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16 minutes ago, winkie said:

Not good, deregulation?....... anything goes when the whistle blows?;)

Very not good - probably the most important animal on the planet. Bye Bye agriculture, bye bye food chains...

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1 hour ago, IMHAL said:

Yes, you are right - the Chicago model, free marketeers, light touch regs, no or little government intervention........until the whole thing goes kaboom...then socialisation of losses and privatisation of profits.

Yes. At that point government either goes Keynesian (Chicago : he bad, except right now) or you have a cratered economy for a generation. So it's like bipolar: the up side is wild and fun, but the hangover is bad. 

1 hour ago, IMHAL said:

The repeal of Glass Stegall came from this movement. 

New economy, can't fail, anything else the road to serfdom. It's also the movement, being allied to Randian 'philosophy' that gives us the Sovereign Individual in its naked, Galtian glory. IMHO, YMMV, etc. It's also allied to founding myths of Bitcoin or IDS. 

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41 minutes ago, winkie said:

Not good, deregulation?....... anything goes when the whistle blows?;)

Welcome to the rich making out like bandits, and when it all goes paps up we get to pay and they get to be bailed out or run away.

The ordinary folk won't have a clue that they have been shafted. They will swallow 'it's those lazy poor people fault' or 'it's those immigrants fault' line every time. Absolutley depressing that the masses can fall for it every time. You get the leaders you deserve.

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