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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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Where do you people get this outlook?

The next generation will inherit this property wealth.  The pension wealth is what is there already, in pension funds.  It's effectively a savings account.  The interest earned on it is below inflation and it has been for years.  Your whole way of looking at this is wrong.

A property price is just a fictional number until somebody pays for it, in most cases in exchange for a part of their future income (mortgage). There is not enough savings to pay for 5 trillion of properties. The value of the real estate was pushed up by buying on margin, like for a stock bubble those unearned gains will become losses at some point.   

As for pensions most of them are just promises, there is no savings backing them. They have to be paid from future profits or taxes. 

https://www.pensionsage.com/pa/UK-pension-liabilities-reach-7-6trn-almost-5trn-unfunded.php   

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I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

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Very much. Meeting diverged UK and EU regulations could be expensive. For many products, the standards will be international, but it's not a given. RFI requirements are an example and FCC and CE requirements are higher in different areas, but do you design to the maximum of both and add cost and potentially sell in neither, do two versions (harder for small companies)? If the UK diverges it's maybe three versions and design costs and issues of logistics AND the costs of three tests. That could result in a smaller firm being squeezed out. 

If you look at the TCA - both the EU and UK are committed to following global standards, in pretty much every part of its relationship.  If the UK diverges, then punitive tariffs kick in, and perhaps even cross retaliation.  We're technically out of the ECJ's jurisdiction, however, the equivalent probably has almost equal bite.  Thus divergence is going to be small. 

Another threshold has to be met, is rules of origin.  These have to be met in order to qualify for zero tariff.  So, we're on the same trajectory as the EU. but we aren't in the single market - which doesn't make a huge amount of sense to me, especially as businesses are going to be smacked with non-tariff barriers.. But then, it was poisoned...that's probably why..

Edited by Dave Beans
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A property price is just a fictional number until somebody pays for it, in most cases in exchange for a part of their future income (mortgage).

If you inherit a property you don't pay for it and you don't need a mortgage.

 

As for pensions most of them are just promises, there is no savings backing them. They have to be paid from future profits or taxes. 

The wealth calculation uses pension funds, and the money is already there.  I've not read our link but suspect it is yet another tiresome piece of propaganda, adding up many years of future pension payments as if it were all one lump sum.  Let me tell you something, future liabilities are infinite if you treat them like this.  It is nonsense.

 

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Only on terms that do not impact on our FTA with the EU, and do not provide the UK with better terms than already offered to the EU under existing agreements.

It's hard to see where any significant benefit comes from.   

The UK/Japan treaty contains the most ambitious digital trade deal in the world.  The EU/Japan deal does not contain this.

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The UK/Japan treaty contains the most ambitious digital trade deal in the world.  The EU/Japan deal does not contain this.

Really?

I think you have been taking Liz's wild claims a bit too seriously. Unless you regard a move to lower personal data protection as a good thing there is nothing in this deal that is better than the EU Japan deal. 

Briefing: how the UK-Japan trade deal severs post-Brexit data adequacy | Open Rights Group 

 This deal is especially problematic. The agreement is mainly a straight copy of the EU- Japan deal the UK currently enjoys, but there are some small additions which are very relevant for digital rights.

These changes signal that the UK intends to diverge significantly from EU digital policy, shifting towards the Asia-Pacific regulatory model of lower data protection, while trying to maintain data flows with the EU. This have-your-cake-and-eat-it approach may not hold and the deal could be the final straw which breaks the EU adequacy decision to enable data flows with the UK.

 

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Really?

I think you have been taking Liz's wild claims a bit too seriously. Unless you regard a move to lower personal data protection as a good thing there is nothing in this deal that is better than the EU Japan deal. 

Briefing: how the UK-Japan trade deal severs post-Brexit data adequacy | Open Rights Group 

 This deal is especially problematic. The agreement is mainly a straight copy of the EU- Japan deal the UK currently enjoys, but there are some small additions which are very relevant for digital rights.

These changes signal that the UK intends to diverge significantly from EU digital policy, shifting towards the Asia-Pacific regulatory model of lower data protection, while trying to maintain data flows with the EU. This have-your-cake-and-eat-it approach may not hold and the deal could be the final straw which breaks the EU adequacy decision to enable data flows with the UK.

 

So the Japan/UK deal does indeed have a wider scope than the Japan/EU deal then?  Like I said?

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If you look at the TCA - both the EU and UK are committed to following global standards, in pretty much every part of its relationship.  If the UK diverges, then punitive tariffs kick in, and perhaps even cross retaliation.  We're technically out of the ECJ's jurisdiction, however, the equivalent probably has almost equal bite.  Thus divergence is going to be small. 

.

 

 

The UK/Japan treaty contains the most ambitious digital trade deal in the world.  The EU/Japan deal does not contain this.

RFI is the one I have most experience with, and it's not a worldwide standard. 

 

Really?

I think you have been taking Liz's wild claims a bit too seriously. Unless you regard a move to lower personal data protection as a good thing there is nothing in this deal that is better than the EU Japan deal. 

The other issue is that if the UK deal is better, the EU can just ask Japan to improve the EU-Japan deal in that area if it cares to. The same is true for Japan and the EU-UK deal. Thus, for any practical purposes, the UK-Japan and EU-Japan deals are the same. Truss seems to have an issue with bring honest about that, but I ding suppose I should be surprised. 

 

This I will have to go and read, as maintaining data flows with the EU is very important at work. A threat to that would be really serious. So in trying to be clever Truss may have, in divergence the EU won't fight over with Japan, screwed the goose. It almost makes you yearn for the administrative competence of Grayling and McVey...

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Yes, we were promised less red tape. Just because the maggots promised it and you read it in the Daily Mail doesn't make it true.

https://www.complianceweek.com/report-brexit-red-tape-will-cost-exporters-58-billion-a-year/8658.article

58 billion, that's less than the 10 billion for EU membership, isn't it, using Brexitmaths, as all £ spent in the UK turn into unicorns and sapphire bullets of pure love (jazz reference). Spell check tried to reduce it to sapphire bullets of pure lice. :)

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58 billion, that's less than the 10 billion for EU membership, isn't it, using Brexitmaths, as all £ spent in the UK turn into unicorns and sapphire bullets of pure love (jazz reference). Spell check tried to reduce it to sapphire bullets of pure lice. :)

Well the 58 million is across both the EU and the UK. But obviously the UK wins with the best song at £31 billion.

BTW, you are not talking about the Birds of Fire album?

Lice is right. Amazing AI spell checks these days - how they can look around their location, take a snapshot of how dire the situation is, and chose the right word to describe it rather than merely correct it 🙂

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These eu "standards" are hostages to fortune, given eu's abysmal growth rates. 

They may want to restrict competition with standards and regulations, but unless they can get their growth rates up, they'll continue going backwards against world competition which is leaving them behind. 

The hidden assumption is that's it's all sunny uplands in Europe.  

The reality is that whoever gets better growth rates, comes out looking better. And both uk and eu are starting this race as laggards. 

 

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These eu "standards" are hostages to fortune, given eu's abysmal growth rates. 

They may want to restrict competition with standards and regulations, but unless they can get their growth rates up, they'll continue going backwards against world competition which is leaving them behind. 

The hidden assumption is that's it's all sunny uplands in Europe.  

The reality is that whoever gets better growth rates, comes out looking better. And both uk and eu are starting this race as laggards. 

 

No, the developing world are the laggards. The clue’s in the name. This is why relative decline is unavoidable whether in or out of the EU.

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The other issue is that if the UK deal is better, the EU can just ask Japan to improve the EU-Japan deal in that area if it cares to. The same is true for Japan and the EU-UK deal. Thus, for any practical purposes, the UK-Japan and EU-Japan deals are the same.

If true, why did the EU not negotiate this at the time?  They took long enough over it.  Or maybe it was traded away in favour of something that would benefit France?

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No, the developing world are the laggards. The clue’s in the name. This is why relative decline is unavoidable whether in or out of the EU.

The EU's own forecast is the EU will be 9% of world GDP by 2050.

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A property price is just a fictional number until somebody pays for it, in most cases in exchange for a part of their future income (mortgage). There is not enough savings to pay for 5 trillion of properties. The value of the real estate was pushed up by buying on margin, like for a stock bubble those unearned gains will become losses at some point.   

As for pensions most of them are just promises, there is no savings backing them. They have to be paid from future profits or taxes. 

https://www.pensionsage.com/pa/UK-pension-liabilities-reach-7-6trn-almost-5trn-unfunded.php   

Wealth calculations exclude mortgages, so equity only. Also, over 50% of UK property is unencumbered.

Similarly, pension wealth is assets, not liabilities.  There IS savings behind them.

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Another threshold has to be met, is rules of origin.  These have to be met in order to qualify for zero tariff.  So, we're on the same trajectory as the EU. but we aren't in the single market - which doesn't make a huge amount of sense to me,

The EU rules of origin apply only to goods we sell into the EU SM.  That's fair enough and we expected that.  With the Japan-UK deal the rules of origin differ from the EU deal.  But only on biscuits, jumpers and coats so far :)

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No, the developing world are the laggards. The clue’s in the name. This is why relative decline is unavoidable whether in or out of the 

The developing world are the laggards... err, no. 

Europe has terrible growth, Italy will go bust without more growth, the Euro structure is driving the south bust so Germany gets to price their exports lower, the population is aging, they've got radical islam running amok: there's lots of problems there too. 

They could all be fixed as they could be in england, but you look at the uk government and say they probably won't and I  look at Europe and think they probably won't either. 

Hence we all drift on from one crisis to the next. Not just england. The grass is always greener on the other side as the saying goes. 

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The developing world are the laggards... err, no. 

Europe has terrible growth, Italy will go bust without more growth, the Euro structure is driving the south bust so Germany gets to price their exports lower, the population is aging, they've got radical islam running amok: there's lots of problems there too. 

They could all be fixed as they could be in england, but you look at the uk government and say they probably won't and I  look at Europe and think they probably won't either. 

Hence we all drift on from one crisis to the next. Not just england. The grass is always greener on the other side as the saying goes. 

Do you think China and other countries joining the first world is a threat, because it means our share of global GDP is inevitably going down, or an opportunity because it is doubling the number of rich consumers?

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The developing world are the laggards... err, no. 

Countries that are catching up have room for growth because they are not fully saturated markets. That is why the are called developing...they have lots of room for growth. Selling into a developed/saturated market is a different proposition. So in one way you are right, developed market are usually laggards in terms of growth, but not market penetration, for reasons given.

 

Europe has terrible growth, Italy will go bust without more growth, the Euro structure is driving the south bust so Germany gets to price their exports lower, the population is aging, they've got radical islam running amok: there's lots of problems there too. 

They could all be fixed as they could be in england, but you look at the uk government and say they probably won't and I  look at Europe and think they probably won't either. 

Hence we all drift on from one crisis to the next. Not just england. The grass is always greener on the other side as the saying goes. 

You are still arguing this like you lost the referendum result. The reality is that large trade blocks dominate for good reason, they have negotiating power with others and bring together large numbers of customers with low friction. Brexit is an experiment in this respect. Let's see if it succeeds, fails or produces a neutral result. One thing for sure, the result of this experiment are on leavers.

Edited by IMHAL
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You are still arguing this like you lost the referendum result. The reality is that large trade blocks dominate for good reason, they have negotiating power with others and bring together large numbers of customers with low friction. Brexit is an experiment in this respect. Let's see if it succeeds, fails or produces a neutral result. One thing for sure, the result of this experiment are on leavers.

Agree, power in collective and agreeable numbers....will wait and see what Brexit will do for us.......suck it and see.;)

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Countries that are catching up have room for growth because they are not fully saturated markets. That is why the are called developing...they have losts of room for growth. Selling into a developed/saturated market is a different proposition. So in one way you are right, developed mark are usually laggards in terms of growth, but not market penetration, but for the fundamental reasons given.

You are still arguing this like you lost the referendum result. The reality is that large trade blocks dominate for good reason, they have negotiating power with others and bring together large numbers of customers with low friction. Brexit is an experiment in this respect. Let's see if it succeeds, fails or produces a neutral result. One thing for sure, the result of this experiment are on leavers.

Large trading blocks also get into wars. And then break up. If your argument was really true, we'd all have been in one block centuries ago. 

Now look at Europe and tell me they don't have large problems too: can you?

We all have large issues. 2022 could be the year of revolutions for all we know. 

Brexit was the UK's revolution. A bloodless one. We'll see how everyone else does. 

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