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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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Forget payola to governments. The trade deal is designed to minimise  that. 

Who pays the most is UK consumers: 275 b in imports vs (to businesses not consumers) 175bn exports. 

Or have I misunderstood? (Which is always quite likely as I got bored reading the deal quite quickly)

I wonder how much of what we import is packaged up into higher value goods and then re exported elsewhere? 

I wonder how much of what we import is simply stuff we don't want to or can't make locally? We are services orientated, preferring to export those instead of making stuff.

It would be good to put this into perspective as these simple figures keep getting trotted out, but it is not as simple as just comparing these two figures alone. Afterall, my trade defecit with Tesco's is very large, but that does not mean anything.

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I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

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Guido Fawkes's rabble are funded by Big Oil, Big Tobacco and the Koch Brothers. Another gang of four flushers who love this country so much they pay their taxes in Bermuda... and Ireland!

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/12/09/brexiters-fled-britain/

One notable Brexiter who has benefitted from a distanced relationship with the UK for a number of years is Paul Staines, editor of right-wing blog Guido Fawkes.

Guido Fawkes is not published in England or Wales, its website states. Instead, “the hosting is in the United States of America under the protection of the First Amendment to the Constitution.”

The site goes on to note that “editorial control is exercised by the editor who is not a United Kingdom resident.”

Indeed, Staines is reported to live in Wexford, Ireland.

 

Never mind draining the swamp. We need a government that will clean out the cesspit.

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You realise we're about to sign a new treaty that prevents us doing that?

It doesn't prevent both sides not buying, or buying less. 

That's what "not nice" means in practice. 

So the politicians have some incentive not to make up new regulations to restrict competition. 

 

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Never mind draining the swamp. We need a government that will clean out the cesspit.

Cyclists are next on the hit-list, apparently. Cycle lanes and Low Traffic Neighbourhoods being the latest frontline in the culture wars.

Not an obvious target until you consider the Big Oil/Green climate perspective, then it all makes sense.

One of the Talk Radio skidmarks tweeted this as his Xmas message yesterday:

 

Listen up.

It’s been stressful for a while. Labour versus Tory, Remain versus Leave, deal versus no deal, even lockdown versus everything open.

Now we’re approaching 2021, can’t we all just unite and do all we can against the one common enemy we can all agree on?

Cyclists.

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I wonder how much of what we import is packaged up into higher value goods and then re exported elsewhere? 

I wonder how much of what we import is simply stuff we don't want to or can't make locally? We are services orientated, preferring to export those instead of making stuff.

It would be good to put this into perspective as these simple figures keep getting trotted out, but it is not as simple as just comparing these two figures alone. Afterall, my trade defecit with Tesco's is very large, but that does not mean anything.

There are clauses to stop uk simply assembling foreign goods and then re exporting them as British.  I don't know how widespread it is, but given destruction of industry in 19 80s and losses of skills going back generations, I'm not sure how quickly a manufacturing capacity could be built up again. Probably more like a macdonalds franchise: their expertise, their machines, their profits, your minimum wage labour and overseer getting a cut. 

Industry was deliberately destroyed. Huge barriers to entry to restart it. We can do scrap heap challenge, but that's not manufacturing. European imports could be sourced elsewhere. The problem isn't imports (apart from volume), it's what have we got to sell in exchange?

The figures are all out there. It's worth putting them in to keep clear over view. 

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1. Lower corporate tax rates. 2. Lower wages. 3. Import from 3rd countries more and charge them no tarriffs either.  

That's always been the concern of the EU: a low tax, low regulation neighbour on their doorstep. 

Given the endemic rentier mentality in UK I think the fear is overblown, but with a competent government, it could become one. 

Hence the determination to tie uk into as many "standards" as possible. 

Russia is a low tax, low regulation neighbour. Do you think the European economy is suffering because of Russia?

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And if you could buy an 2nd hand electric car for 3 grand the battery would be shot and take another 3 thousand to replace it.

The batteries will now be pretty viable (80%+) for 250k miles or more. The car will probably fail before the battery. But even a 70% charge battery (projected to be in the region of 500k to 1m miles) still has value on the secondary market for storage. 

 

Although we wont own cars in the future 

We will, unless it is made illegal. 

 

Its only if your taking something out of the country for business. Not for tourists. I think.

Technically no, practically, it doesn't apply. 

 

Almost certainly - watch this space in 4 years.

Boris: "Listen guys, I did the best I can, the public won't take a No Deal right now with Covid. I promise we'll do the whole destruction deal at the next election - it will be a walkover to sell them sunny uplands then when Covid is out of the way. You can wait until then surely? You've already waited for 44 years".

Pretty much what I suspect happened. It beaks ERG red lines on NI, LPF, fish, etc. So why the swift support after initial reports of annoyance? 

 

Not sure, It's Russian, surely our new allies?

Moscow is in Europe, just the bit where Sacha, er, Boris's friends are from. 

 

We've even got them financing the current government - so we must be close.

Seems so. 

 

And if he persists in that course of action, there will be many who think that it is high time that the UK had a fully fledged pro-European Social Democratic Party which should make that case.

That would be nice. I won't hold my breath. 

 

Sounds right. The opposition has been hopeless for a while. But then they are just a piece of a Hopeless Landscape jigsaw. For me, when I look around, I see nobody with the balls to do what is necessary to uplift the country. We need a totally new system. We should all be very disturbed by the current trajectory towards this place becoming an Oligarch's playground.

+1

 

Instead, with this deal, we have death by a thousand cuts. 

Since the NHS cannot be cut this Parliament, then cuts for the poor, etc. to pay for it... 

 

They are allowed to indulge themselves with impunity.

It's worrying. 

 

 

 

 

BJ in the HoC today.

Babbling like a madman, a national embarrassment :(.

At least he's consistent. 

 

More than Jeremy would have been? 😄

Yes. You might not agree with Corbyn, but he didn't babble. 

 

He must be counting his blessings in all honesty, this has gone from being a potential "No Deal" to a deal which will undoubtedly be supported by the HoC and HoL, but not only that but my a large majority of the population.

Sadly, I think it's a tarp. 

 

 

 

 

Third country is third country... Its not about being "difficult"...

+1. May ensured this would happen. 

 

Guido Fawkes's rabble

Not very patriotic. I was never sure why the reference to a mercenary supporting a plot to sell out the UK to a foreign power. But then again... 

 

May calls Starmer out...if you wanted a better deal then why didn't you vote for mine in 2019?

So if someone asks if you want to be punched in the face or kneed in the ******** then saying you'd rather neither means you are stupid for not opting for the punch in the face? 

 

Oh yeah.

 

By 2024 the companies and markets lost to this deal will be irrecoverable. If the plan is to change it before the election it would make nice election fantasy, thats all.

If makes it easier to sell phase 2 "for the hood of the country, or what is left of it". 

 

Its not an major issue for the EU.

Nope. Not much of it's GDP tied up in it. 

 

Oh no, I wasn't taking the pish or even really exaggerating. 

Oh dear... 

 

Simple retort...the deal was not much diferent to the deal on offer. It's not good enough and does not deliver what was promised.... it's a thin line full of holes but he just needs to get to the other side and work on the cracks that will appear to take us to a BRINO.

Choppy waters this Brexit has created.

+1

 

Ha ha, are we really basing the success of the deal on an eel exporter. 

It is what is known in English as 'an example'. 

 

I am amazed this guy managed to undercut the French and Dutch in the first place but respect to him for managing such a project for 50 years.  Looks like he is in a position to retire.

The UK has a lot more coastline with eels relative to the population than the EU and relatively little domestic demand. 

 

1. Lower corporate tax rates.

They are low already. Lowering them more might encourage companies to base themselves in the UK but with little presence. But the issue is still trade with the EU, so they'd still go to Ireland. The UK can't cut corporate taxes for every company to attract a few HQs and offering preferential deals would fall foul of the state aid laws just signed up to. 

 

2. Lower wages.

Likely. Is that what Brexiteers voted for? 

 

3. Import from 3rd countries more and charge them no tarriffs either.  

Breaks WTO rules unless it applied to every nation. Then good luck with negotiating trade deals on the basis of increasing tariffs. 

 

That's always been the concern of the EU: a low tax, low regulation neighbour on their doorstep. 

You didn't mention regulation. 

 

Given the endemic rentier mentality in UK I think the fear is overblown, but with a competent government, it could become one. 

Hence the determination to tie uk into as many "standards" as possible. 

 

 

It was already debunked some time ago - it doesn't apply to work laptops and phones or personal laptops and phones being taken on short term business trips or holidays. You do wonder if anyone in this sub forum has ever travelled outside the EU - I have been on countless trips outside Europe with laptops, iphones, ipads and no one at passport control or customs has ever asked to see my £326 ATA carnet because of course it isn't applicable in those circumstances.1

It only takes a bit of research to debunk a cheap headline is 36 point font!

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/laptop-no-deal-brexit_uk_5d98af20e4b0fc935edabfe1?

I travel semi-regularly to the USA (business and pleasure) and it's never an issue. 

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Same principles apply.

I am not too sure about that. Labour + SNP + LibDems a few others may swing it. 

Plus, If Starmer did oppose it - then what would be his counter offer? He does not really have one that would not instantly be shot down as not Brexit or against the ref result.

For the SNP it's much easier, they have the fact that the Scots voted to stay in. The LibDems also are taking a consistent line.

No - the only route available to Labour is to fight for a better relationship when the cracks start to appear.

Speculation. 

Tough regardless of what position you take. Maybe a lost cause. Let the Scots go....it is a casualty of Brexit.

As explained above.

ERG are backing it. Are you saying you think 40 Tories are going to oppose it?

Don't see how Starmer can win a GE without some MPs in Scotland - or a deal with the SNP.

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Cyclists are next on the hit-list, apparently. Cycle lanes and Low Traffic Neighbourhoods being the latest frontline in the culture wars.

Not an obvious target until you consider the Big Oil/Green climate perspective, then it all makes sense.

One of the Talk Radio skidmarks tweeted this as his Xmas message yesterday:

 

Listen up.

It’s been stressful for a while. Labour versus Tory, Remain versus Leave, deal versus no deal, even lockdown versus everything open.

Now we’re approaching 2021, can’t we all just unite and do all we can against the one common enemy we can all agree on?

Cyclists.

You are starting to depress me.

I remember well when Graham Stringer was the Labour Leader of Manchester City council in the 80's and got a load of flak for expanding the cycle lanes network around Oxford Road and beyond. The cycle lanes were a great start to improving cycling safety, journey speed and environmentally friendly transport.

I lived in Salford at that time and was a research student at UMIST. Cycling times from Salford to UMIST was about 25 minutes during rush hour. Occasionally, when I took the car the same journey took about 45 minutes. Now that is what you call pedal power.

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Never mind draining the swamp. We need a government that will clean out the cesspit.

The government is the swamp. 

They can only be cleaned up by millions of people voting for less government help. 

Instead, people voted for more and more money from government, not less and less. Until country goes bust. 

Look at the US national debt: accelerating towards disaster, not reversing. 

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The government is the swamp. 

They can only be cleaned up by millions of people voting for less government help. 

Instead, people voted for more and more money from government, not less and less. Until country goes bust. 

Look at the US national debt: accelerating towards disaster, not reversing. 

I suspect that we are situated at different points on the political compass.

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The government is the swamp. 

They can only be cleaned up by millions of people voting for less government help. 

That's potentially handing things to the swamp of vested interests.

 

Instead, people voted for more and more money from government, not less and less.

Modern nations demand this. The one that is one of the worst in this regard in terms of what it offers is the USA, one you ironically single out. 

 

Until country goes bust. 

Like, say, Sweden? 

 

Look at the US national debt: accelerating towards disaster, not reversing. 

Not really, apart from the credit crunch and COVID. Have you been reading Austrian economists or goldbug nonsense? 

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It’s not as simple as that. Most politicians live in the metropolitan bubble, shielded from reality; and fertilised by a HPI loving media.

Even politicians formerly known as Change offer no policies to bring change.

We both recognise there is something profoundly wrong. I don’t see how voting for the status quo does anything to address it.

Rock the casbah.

Remember when drivel such as the above was used to justify voting Brexshit.

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I wonder how much of what we import is packaged up into higher value goods and then re exported elsewhere? 

I wonder how much of what we import is simply stuff we don't want to or can't make locally? We are services orientated, preferring to export those instead of making stuff.

It would be good to put this into perspective as these simple figures keep getting trotted out, but it is not as simple as just comparing these two figures alone. Afterall, my trade defecit with Tesco's is very large, but that does not mean anything.

Global labour arbitrage and barriers to entry are the issues, not ability or desire.

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ERG are backing it. Are you saying you think 40 Tories are going to oppose it?

 

 

Don't see how Starmer can win a GE without some MPs in Scotland - or a deal with the SNP.

If Starmer refused to back the deal he would instantly be seen as opposing Brexit. If he backs the deal he is seen as supportive of the deal and at once contradictory. It's a calculation between the lesser of the two evils. It's a sticky wicket, hobsons choice, check.

I saw Alistair Campbell arguing that he should have voted against the deal. I understand that position and he and you might be right. Starmer will need to do alot of work to be seen as a Brexiteer who wants to steer us to a better deal. That is the position that he is taking. On the plus side, he will have lots of ammo to work with when the cracks appear. He has decided that a full frontal attack at the mo is not the right strategy... we will see. 

 

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Corbs says no, Starmer says yes.

Vote passes 521 to 73.

Would have passed 321 to 273 if Starmer had opposed it.

But, yes, choppy waters.

 

 

See, you where right after all........(virtually) everyone is a Brexiteer now. We all want to excercise our soverign right to trade with our neighbours in the best way possible. Brexit means Brexit and Brexit means something different to every Brexiteer. Let democracy continue to shape what Brexit turns out to be. 

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See, you where right after all........(virtually) everyone is a Brexiteer now. We all want to excercise our soverign right to trade with our neighbours in the best way possible. Brexit means Brexit and Brexit means something different to every Brexiteer. Let democracy continue to shape what Brexit turns out to be. 

A difficult day for Labour and a difficult GE to come. Boundary changes looming, big Tory majority, peak SNP, makes it hard for them to get the numbers.

Progressive alliance still possible but I think it would have to be pro-EU/internationalist. That might be the agenda, but if so I feel today was a miscalculation, just my take.

Really not sure what to make of Starmer. I would have gone for Lisa Nandy. She voted for the deal but I like the way she summed up the choice - this deal or chaos and then go on to build stronger alliances. That cuts through better than the Starmer speech earlier, I feel.

All to play for in the years ahead.

 

 

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