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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

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More than Jeremy would have been? 😄

He must be counting his blessings in all honesty, this has gone from being a potential "No Deal" to a deal which will undoubtedly be supported by the HoC and HoL, but not only that but my a large majority of the population.

https://order-order.com/2020/12/29/exclusive-brits-overwhelmingly-think-mps-should-vote-for-uk-eu-fta/

There is a distinction to be made between accepting something as the least worst option and embracing it with enthusiasm.

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Whenever I see a "Look how difficult it will be to sell/take/export/transport something to the EU", I wonder whether it will be any easier from a EU viewpoint coming in this direction, especially considering the massive disparity between what we sell and what we buy.  Whilst I expect we will be pretty relaxed about restricting imports at the outset, self interest rather than being nice to our EU "friends", where we to see that the EU were making things difficult, then I am sure we will reciprocate, which is easier to do piecemeal and in a measured fashion, and pick off particular countries if necessary.  I am pretty sure common sense will prevail and we will be coming back here in a few months saying "What where we worrying about"?

Third country is third country... Its not about being "difficult"...

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More than Jeremy would have been? 😄

He must be counting his blessings in all honesty, this has gone from being a potential "No Deal" to a deal which will undoubtedly be supported by the HoC and HoL, but not only that but my a large majority of the population.

https://order-order.com/2020/12/29/exclusive-brits-overwhelmingly-think-mps-should-vote-for-uk-eu-fta/

 

Guido Fawkes's rabble are funded by Big Oil, Big Tobacco and the Koch Brothers. Another gang of four flushers who love this country so much they pay their taxes in Bermuda... and Ireland!

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/12/09/brexiters-fled-britain/

One notable Brexiter who has benefitted from a distanced relationship with the UK for a number of years is Paul Staines, editor of right-wing blog Guido Fawkes.

Guido Fawkes is not published in England or Wales, its website states. Instead, “the hosting is in the United States of America under the protection of the First Amendment to the Constitution.”

The site goes on to note that “editorial control is exercised by the editor who is not a United Kingdom resident.”

Indeed, Staines is reported to live in Wexford, Ireland.

 

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2024 could be a route to more integration, or more divergence. My hunch, given ERG support despite it crossing ERG red lines is that the ERG assumes divergence. Starmer will probably seek to play down the issue until after an election and then promote more integration. Where the rational Tories lean, if there are any left, is another matter. 

Currently, since the deal is mild enough, and COVID a useful excuse, the Conservatives will win the next election. However, as 2017 and 2019 showed, the same vote share can result in different types of result. 

I still think Scotland will vote to leave, and a milder Brexit would make it easier for Scottish trade. Paradoxically, it would make a radical English Conservative government more likely, and then make that difficult again. But then I can't see how the government can morally refuse Scotland a referendum. 

By 2024 the companies and markets lost to this deal will be irrecoverable. If the plan is to change it before the election it would make nice election fantasy, thats all.

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Since there is no concept of service to country in Westminster, I believe we will only change the course of things if the politicians are fearful. Currently, timidness and gutlessness seems to be the credo. Add greed and incompetence with Johnson and his crickets. They are allowed to indulge themselves with impunity. We should put a stop to that. Oh, hold on we can't without violence. Back to the No Deal missed opportunity.

Hang on, with the referendum result and the election of Trump, the people showed they will vote the wrong way, when pushed too hard.

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Are you for real? That's not what I'm seeing on "Parliament Live".

As for a great year, on what planet?

I'm only looking at the forecast result which appears to be around 550/100 or thereabouts. Under no illusion the support is through gritted teeth from Special K, but it is support.

2020 is just a good year for me personally, possibly even in the top 2 of all time (my year of birth was of course the best!). Finances, freedoms, WFH, all came together almost perfectly in 2020. Shame HPs were up.

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This isn't war, it's politics. War goes further.

Same principles apply.

 

The deal will pass, there's no chance of no deal. All voters know that Starmer thinks the deal is terrible, he might as well be seen to stick to his self-proclaimed principles and avoid being branded a realpolitik hypocrite.

I am not too sure about that. Labour + SNP + LibDems a few others may swing it. 

Plus, If Starmer did oppose it - then what would be his counter offer? He does not really have one that would not instantly be shot down as not Brexit or against the ref result.

For the SNP it's much easier, they have the fact that the Scots voted to stay in. The LibDems also are taking a consistent line.

No - the only route available to Labour is to fight for a better relationship when the cracks start to appear.

 

Playing the snake in the grass and sniping at a deal he voted for will not win him the next GE.

Speculation. 

 

He risks further splits in his party and enraging Scotland. And he needs more votes from Scotland, partic, with the boundary changes looming.

Tough regardless of what position you take. Maybe a lost cause. Let the Scots go....it is a casualty of Brexit.

 

In my view his best strategy would be to say that Labour can't back the deal and it's for the govt to fix if the bill is defeated (which it won't be anyway). If the country then grows poorer/suffers under the deal Starmer will be well-placed to pick up aggrieved voters.

As explained above.

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May calls Starmer out...if you wanted a better deal then why didn't you vote for mine in 2019?

Oh yeah.

Simple retort...the deal was not much diferent to the deal on offer. It's not good enough and does not deliver what was promised.... it's a thin line full of holes but he just needs to get to the other side and work on the cracks that will appear to take us to a BRINO.

Choppy waters this Brexit has created.

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