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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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Is this new transport going to be produced using zero emissions?

Nope. Peak horse. The mass excess poor not needed for labour will be culled (by a virus of course) and burnt to create plenty of energy to proce zero emission cars. On fitting the people that caused the polution can supply it's remedy. 

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I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

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Apparently this will be the Brexit number one in the download charts:

https://youtu.be/_kkOHtniTts

Something for everyone from the ADF, you can listen to Stewart Lee's overlay speech and take it at initial face value or hear the deeper irony.

 

 

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Somebody help me here - is this guy for real ? I really don't get it.

Runs an eel business with £2m turnover per year exporting to the EU. Voted for Brexit. Didn't realise what would happen.

 

 

To be fair he was sold a fairytale story, take back control, keep the money that we send to the EU, keep out the foreigners etc etc.   nobody explained the the EU response might be “good luck with that” and “your either in or your out”.  I don’t believe many average EU citizens are 100% happy with the EU and I can see why people want to be out.  I think the UK is being made an example to those people so they can see what they get for their EU membership. 

Edited by satsuma
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And to get the 23% above France assumes the UK growing at 4% for four years and the French economy not at all. So either it's BS or someone forgot to factor in France recovering from COVID (and still BS). 

The report does say 23% above France in US dollars.  I've not had time to go into it myself but I bet the apparent discrepancy is related to this.  There are three lines in each table and you can work out different apparent growths for each line.

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More on that Level Playing Field

EU fish industry has unhampered access to UK waters for next 5.5 years.

However, there will be EU State Aid ("Brexit Adjustment Reserve") to that industry of 800 million Euros, backdated to July 2020.

 

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Brexit Deal Is Too Little, Too Late for U.K.’s Car Industry

  • Honda plant will close; Nissan called off plans for new models
  • Details of accord will determine whether more damage is done

 

This is still a thin deal with major implications and costs for automotive,” said David Bailey, a business economics professor at Birmingham Business School in England. “Much will depend on the degree of flexibility allowed and the degree of phasing in.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-29/brexit-deal-may-be-too-little-too-late-for-u-k-s-car-industry

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Perhaps this means one needs to become an oligarch if one's life is to remain worth keeping in your vision for the future?

Often, in periods of rapid change, those who believe they will be oligarchs find out they are just peons after all. 

In terms of numbers of cars in usage I looked around, and it seems a reduction by 20% is a consensus for Europe in 2030, no consensus I could see for the USA, but some suggesting greater turn over, and the consensus that demand and production to be higher rather than lower. This was across both the usual suspects (PWC, etc) but also across academics. It wasn't a rigorous peer-reviewed review paper, though. It was interesting that a reduction in Europe was suggested, but I haven't poked on reasoning for that reduction. And that's fleet, not production demand. If ICE is being replaced then production might even be higher, depending on rate, unless someone is going to create conversion kits with drop in electric engines and battery packs which I've seen done but doesn't make sense on a mass scale. 

In fact it reminds me of when the French army decided they needed a semi-automatic rifle in WW1 but the army was only given permission for a conversion kit. Technically it was - you took the butt stock off the old rifle, threw the rest away, and 'converted' it with the new 'kit'. 

 

Is this new transport going to be produced using zero emissions?

Doesn't matter as long as total lifetime emissions are lower. It's a red herring used by Exxon, et al. And that includes reuse of batteries where there is valid reuse, but just one to flatter figures. 

The Chinese goverment has announced it intends to be the world leader in EV production, irrespective of any Tesla production. 

 

Nope. Peak horse. The mass excess poor not needed for labour will be culled 

I do hope this is black humour. 

 

He'll also need an importer in the EU, who'll agree to take on his liabilities... 

That's standard third country requirements, but a huge non tariff barrier, especially for anything not consumable. There are still some firms in the UK doing heavy engineering and I expect this will hit them. Actually, the suppliers will be looking for legal options in partnership to rehome the livability where those heavy engineering firms aren't also their European supply chain element. But even then the UK arm of GE supplying power generation kit will now be a separate legal entity, so it still has to demonstrate a transfer of liability to the UK. IANAL: I don't know how you do this and such that it doesn't require complex legal wrangling. That is a situation where some contract dispute court would be useful, but probably a UK government 'Red line'. 

 

I don’t believe many average EU citizens are 100% happy with the EU 

I wasn't 100% happy but recognised that it was the best game in town and not irrevocably bad. The UK had actually stood in the way of reforms that might have improved it. In fact the ERG complained about the lack of some of them yet it was some of the same people opposing those changes during Maastricht! 

 

The report does say 23% above France in US dollars

If you assume zero growth in the French economy 21-25, the figures work exactly. It's possible that there's another source. However, even the panglossians at PWC and so on only see a differential of 10% on the same basis, so CEBR is still an outlier. There are some PPP projections out there, though. OECD projects no differential greater than the existing one. 

Ultimately people 'feel' GDP/capita PPP. 

Edited by NobodyInParticular
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More on that Level Playing Field

EU fish industry has unhampered access to UK waters for next 5.5 years.

However, there will be EU State Aid ("Brexit Adjustment Reserve") to that industry of 800 million Euros, backdated to July 2020.

That looks as much like a way to allow the UK to institute Gove's promised package to UK fishermen. That's required to placate them, and EU's fishermen will demand the same. 

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The 'We are all Brexiteers now' panto featuring full swan lake tutu's with hairy legs spectacular you mean.

I don't think, I might agree.

We all know what Brexit means now and it doesn't matter if you like it or not, whether you wanted to remain in the EU or to leave.

The next unknown brexit puzzle is how "We are going to pay for it".

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Eventually, I expect, electric cars will be the norm.

Right now, I could buy a diesel car that I'd accept as meeting (my) minimum requirements for less than £3k.

I don't expect to be able to buy an electric car that meets this objective in 3 years for £3k - as, right now, I couldn't buy one with a budget of £3m.

Therein lies the problem... and I don't think 3 years gives anywhere near enough time to solve it.

If Britian goes only-electric for new cars in 10 years... then I expect this country to start to look a lot more like Cuba from an automotive perspective.

And if you could buy an 2nd hand electric car for 3 grand the battery would be shot and take another 3 thousand to replace it.

Although we wont own cars in the future apparently so its probably a moot point. Have to rent one with your subscription to Amazon motors.

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I'm surprised at ERG support since it crosses ERG red lines. Has the ERG been offered something behind closed doors, as with the WA? The current deal recognises the reality of the UK's weak position, but I don't think the likes of Mark Francois have. 

Almost certainly - watch this space in 4 years.

Boris: "Listen guys, I did the best I can, the public won't take a No Deal right now with Covid. I promise we'll do the whole destruction deal at the next election - it will be a walkover to sell them sunny uplands then when Covid is out of the way. You can wait until then surely? You've already waited for 44 years".

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Gutted.

"Honestly, who'd have thought that without a spoof phone call, a group of Eurosceptic backbenchers might have forced the prime minister to resign and taken us out of the EU. What are the chances of that?"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55477424

Only ever watched his show because of Bird and Fortune. Never again!

Although, while I don't think it would have led to an EU exit, we might have actually got to vote on joining 😉

Edited by Huggy
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It's the only show in town.

Unless you want to keep digging your escape tunnels to nowhere.

That's not very British. The Great Escape would never have been a film with that attitude.

I think you have looked longingly at how the CCP does things - citizens under the thumb and kept in a Pleasure Dome concentration camp until death. The UK can't afford the Pleasure Dome so that just leaves the camp.

 

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Almost certainly - watch this space in 4 years.

Boris: "Listen guys, I did the best I can, the public won't take a No Deal right now with Covid. I promise we'll do the whole destruction deal at the next election - it will be a walkover to sell them sunny uplands then when Covid is out of the way. You can wait until then surely? You've already waited for 44 years".

Yes - this is most probably the agreed stratergy.

Whether greater convergence or divergence from the EU is best achieved by stealth is an interesting political question. I find it hard to believe that Keir Starmer will be able to convince the majority pro-European membership of the Labour party that our ongoing relationship with the EU ought not to be under discussion and review during the next parliament. 

And if he persists in that course of action, there will be many who think that it is high time that the UK had a fully fledged pro-European Social Democratic Party which should make that case.

Edited by grasshopper
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Yes - this is most probably the agreed strategy.

Whether greater convergence or divergence from the EU is best achieved by stealth is an interesting political question. I find it hard to believe that Keir Starmer will be able to convince the majority pro-European membership of the Labour party that our ongoing relationship with the EU ought not to be under discussion and review during the next parliament. 

And if he persists in that course of action, there will be many who think that it is high time that the UK had a fully fledged pro-European Social Democratic Party which should make that case.

Sounds right. The opposition has been hopeless for a while. But then they are just a piece of a Hopeless Landscape jigsaw. For me, when I look around, I see nobody with the balls to do what is necessary to uplift the country. We need a totally new system. We should all be very disturbed by the current trajectory towards this place becoming an Oligarch's playground.

Plus, the only thing the politicos are afraid of is social unrest - even the mighty Putin admits this is what keeps him up at night. With good reason as in his case there's a precedent. For this reason, a no-deal would have been better. More revealing and cathartic. .

Instead, with this deal, we have death by a thousand cuts. Brexit has just been a massive distraction, very expensive, a ridiculous time sink - but most of all, it's utterly pointless. Look how happy Leavers are here. Look at the great leader's vision, the shining map of destiny. No fecking plan Stan.

Since there is no concept of service to country in Westminster, I believe we will only change the course of things if the politicians are fearful. Currently, timidness and gutlessness seems to be the credo. Add greed and incompetence with Johnson and his crickets. They are allowed to indulge themselves with impunity. We should put a stop to that. Oh, hold on we can't without violence. Back to the No Deal missed opportunity.

 

Edited by jonb2
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Whenever I see a "Look how difficult it will be to sell/take/export/transport something to the EU", I wonder whether it will be any easier from a EU viewpoint coming in this direction, especially considering the massive disparity between what we sell and what we buy.  Whilst I expect we will be pretty relaxed about restricting imports at the outset, self interest rather than being nice to our EU "friends", where we to see that the EU were making things difficult, then I am sure we will reciprocate, which is easier to do piecemeal and in a measured fashion, and pick off particular countries if necessary.  I am pretty sure common sense will prevail and we will be coming back here in a few months saying "What where we worrying about"?

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BJ in the HoC today.

Babbling like a madman, a national embarrassment :(.

More than Jeremy would have been? 😄

He must be counting his blessings in all honesty, this has gone from being a potential "No Deal" to a deal which will undoubtedly be supported by the HoC and HoL, but not only that but my a large majority of the population.

https://order-order.com/2020/12/29/exclusive-brits-overwhelmingly-think-mps-should-vote-for-uk-eu-fta/

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Aye...there is an art to war.

This isn't war, it's politics. War goes further.

The deal will pass, there's no chance of no deal. All voters know that Starmer thinks the deal is terrible, he might as well be seen to stick to his self-proclaimed principles and avoid being branded a realpolitik hypocrite.

Playing the snake in the grass and sniping at a deal he voted for will not win him the next GE.

He risks further splits in his party and enraging Scotland. And he needs more votes from Scotland, partic, with the boundary changes looming.

In my view his best strategy would be to say that Labour can't back the deal and it's for the govt to fix if the bill is defeated (which it won't be anyway). If the country then grows poorer/suffers under the deal Starmer will be well-placed to pick up aggrieved voters.

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