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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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Being an HPC Senior Veteran I'll wager you will have seen lots of wrong predictions 😉

Actually, they are all wrong and for good reason. The degree to which they are wrong in this case is the only thing that matters. Given that trade friction has increased, then it follows that it is only the degree of how bad Brexit will be that is being argued over. Which is an improvement in terms of discourse at least.

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I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

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Actually, they are all wrong and for good reason. The degree to which they are wrong in this case is the only thing that matters. Given that trade friction has increased, then it follows that it is only the degree of how bad Brexit will be that is being argued over. Which is an improvement in terms of discourse at least.

And, to be honest there's not much point in arguing about it as we don't yet know how the vested interests in the EU will adjust to having to resort to the same onerous tasks as their UK counterparts - and as we import more than we export then that's not a bad position to be in I would say.  Its always easy to paint the most dismal picture - try and look on the bright side.

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Starmer goes full ERG.

Not sure this is wise. But he clearly feels there's no serious drift to any rejoin momentum.

Gruniad, ref only...

Starmer said he could not envisage Europe or Brexit playing any part in the election campaign of 2024 – or featuring on any Labour MPs’ election leaflets – despite the opportunity for a review of the treaty in 2024, which is spelled out in the current deal.

“It’s pretty unlikely. The focus will be on Britain and on Britain’s role in the world,” he said. “Will the renegotiation of the treaty be central to the manifesto? No.

“If we are still arguing in 2024 about what has gone in these past four years, we’re facing the wrong way as far as I’m concerned.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/29/labour-will-not-seek-major-changes-to-uks-relationship-with-eu-keir-starmer

 

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... try and look on the bright side.

We've had that joke already.

 

 

 

Edited by DarkHorseWaits-NoMore
updated
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Starmer goes full ERG.

Not sure this is wise. But he clearly feels there's no serious drift to any rejoin momentum.

Gruniad, ref only...

Starmer said he could not envisage Europe or Brexit playing any part in the election campaign of 2024 – or featuring on any Labour MPs’ election leaflets – despite the opportunity for a review of the treaty in 2024, which is spelled out in the current deal.

“It’s pretty unlikely. The focus will be on Britain and on Britain’s role in the world,” he said. “Will the renegotiation of the treaty be central to the manifesto? No.

“If we are still arguing in 2024 about what has gone in these past four years, we’re facing the wrong way as far as I’m concerned.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/29/labour-will-not-seek-major-changes-to-uks-relationship-with-eu-keir-starmer

 

Starmer is on a sticky wicket if he fights Brexit head-on. My guess is that he will focus on a sector by sector strategy that has been failed by Brexit to bring us into closer alignment. It will be difficult to argue with that. It's going to be a slow and protracted process to minimise the damage..... but that is all it will ever be. Full ERG? don't think so.

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And, to be honest there's not much point in arguing about it as we don't yet know how the vested interests in the EU will adjust to having to resort to the same onerous tasks as their UK counterparts - and as we import more than we export then that's not a bad position to be in I would say.  Its always easy to paint the most dismal picture - try and look on the bright side.

All together now #The bright side of life........ da da........ da da........ da da.. da da..da.. da da# 

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Starmer goes full ERG.

Not sure this is wise. But he clearly feels there's no serious drift to any rejoin momentum.

Gruniad, ref only...

Starmer said he could not envisage Europe or Brexit playing any part in the election campaign of 2024 – or featuring on any Labour MPs’ election leaflets – despite the opportunity for a review of the treaty in 2024, which is spelled out in the current deal.

“It’s pretty unlikely. The focus will be on Britain and on Britain’s role in the world,” he said. “Will the renegotiation of the treaty be central to the manifesto? No.

“If we are still arguing in 2024 about what has gone in these past four years, we’re facing the wrong way as far as I’m concerned.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/29/labour-will-not-seek-major-changes-to-uks-relationship-with-eu-keir-starmer

 

Its not an FTA or a "deal" - its a framework, that will be eternally developed... Many in Labour will want to push a closer relationship angle into its framework in the future..

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Starmer is on a sticky wicket if he fights Brexit head-on. My guess is that he will focus on a sector by sector strategy that has been failed by Brexit to bring us into closer alignment. It will be difficult to argue with that. It's going to be a slow and protracted process to minimise the damage..... but that is all it will ever be. Full ERG? don't think so.

So he's taking a covert approach to rejoining? Sector by sector.

Quote, "Europe/Brexit will play no part in the next election campaign."

Accept it, IMHAL. Starmer isn't fighting Brexit. Head-on or otherwise.

 

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So he's taking a covert approach to rejoining? Sector by sector.

Quote, "Europe/Brexit will play no part in the next election campaign."

Accept it, IMHAL. Starmer isn't fighting Brexit. Head-on or otherwise.

 

Oh come off it. You know that if he was to give any hint of notion that the referendum had been overturned in any way then he would be handing a hatchet to the opposition. This will be a crab like crawl back into the orbit of the EU. 

Remember, he also said that he reluctantly endorsed the deal but also said that it did not deliver what Brexit promised. You can take that anyway you want, but full on ERG it aint.

Edited by IMHAL
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Starmer goes full ERG.

Not sure this is wise. But he clearly feels there's no serious drift to any rejoin momentum.

Gruniad, ref only...

Starmer said he could not envisage Europe or Brexit playing any part in the election campaign of 2024 – or featuring on any Labour MPs’ election leaflets – despite the opportunity for a review of the treaty in 2024, which is spelled out in the current deal.

“It’s pretty unlikely. The focus will be on Britain and on Britain’s role in the world,” he said. “Will the renegotiation of the treaty be central to the manifesto? No.

“If we are still arguing in 2024 about what has gone in these past four years, we’re facing the wrong way as far as I’m concerned.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/29/labour-will-not-seek-major-changes-to-uks-relationship-with-eu-keir-starmer

 

Too busy counting socialists out of the party to come up with a coherent reply.

Hopefully, Starmer wont be playing any part in the Labour election campaign of 2024.

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It's the only show in town.

Unless you want to keep digging your escape tunnels to nowhere.

This escape comittee has decided to curtail it's ambitions... they have decided to emerge in no mans land.... not out, nor in, but sufficiently ambigous to satisfy both.

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Oh come off it. You know that if he was to give any hint of notion that the referendum had been overturned in any way then he would be handing a hatchet to the opposition. This will be a crab like crawl back into the orbit of the EU. 

Remember, he also said that he reluctantly endorsed the deal but also said that it did not deliver what Brexit promised. You can take that anyway you want, but full on ERG it aint.

Have you called it right thus far? Poorer, likely, but it's as much an exercise in learning how to diverge as it is to integrate.

Starmer doesn't have to back the deal. Deal will pass anyway.

He wants to back it.

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Oh come off it. You know that if he was to give any hint of notion that the referendum had been overturned in any way then he would be handing a hatchet to the opposition. This will be a crab like crawl back into the orbit of the EU. 

2024 could be a route to more integration, or more divergence. My hunch, given ERG support despite it crossing ERG red lines is that the ERG assumes divergence. Starmer will probably seek to play down the issue until after an election and then promote more integration. Where the rational Tories lean, if there are any left, is another matter. 

Currently, since the deal is mild enough, and COVID a useful excuse, the Conservatives will win the next election. However, as 2017 and 2019 showed, the same vote share can result in different types of result. 

I still think Scotland will vote to leave, and a milder Brexit would make it easier for Scottish trade. Paradoxically, it would make a radical English Conservative government more likely, and then make that difficult again. But then I can't see how the government can morally refuse Scotland a referendum. 

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