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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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You missed a step in my posts further upstream.  My point was in the near future, 2030, the poor wont own non ICE cars anymore, as BEV will be too expensive for the reasons above, and you affirmed. So as i said, They "wealthy" like me, will each own 3-4 cars, I for personal family use as a status symbol like in the 1920's, the others will be Tesla autonomus robotaxis , on joint income lease deals with Tesla. 

The poor wont own, they will hail a Tesla M3 / MY robotaxi when they want a journey and pay a per mile fee. Tesla will retain 25% of the fee for running the "network" and the owner will get 75% of the fee to pay the Telsa lease and running costs, insurance, etc. 

Yes after about 1m miles (the Tesla goal and estimate) the car will be "retired" and parts availability will be withheld from poor, or very very expensive, so there will ne economical way for the poor to now own a car through depreciation. Thye may aquire one that works, just, but tesla will want $$$$ repair costs before they will let it drive on the road. dont want to pay? They send 1 signal over the air, the car is now a brick, scrap only. 

lots of changes coming within a decade. Best to get wealthy, buy bitcoin now.

You're expecting a lot of people to radically change their behaviour here. I wouldn't want to own a car as a robotaxi without it being lucrative as I'd want to have the thing back in usable condition when I wanted it, not full of vomit, and I wouldn't want to have to keep taking my stuff out and putting it back in. Unless it was essentially free, no thanks. But which company is effectively going to gift me a car? The best hope would be if it was a £20k investment at 6% to compensate me for it being a giant pain in the behind. 

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I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

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Jesus, cant you use your IQ to actually reserch anything about Tesla?  You think gigafactory Berlin is just a battery factory? What are you smoking. All new Tesla Gigafactorys produce cars, and some batteries too.  Nevada USA is the only pure battery plant i believe, the new Texas plant running by 2022 will make the new 4680 cells and the Cybertruck too. 

why do you continue to comment on things you are so ignorant on?

I caveated my statement to indicate it was my belief in the absence of additional research. Pretty normal I would have thought. I don't actually live and breathe by everything Musk does. 

 

As i have said twice, the monkeys in Africa 

Ooohh casual racism. Nice.

 

 

 

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You're expecting a lot of people to radically change their behaviour here. I wouldn't want to own a car as a robotaxi without it being lucrative as I'd want to have the thing back in usable condition when I wanted it, not full of vomit, and I wouldn't want to have to keep taking my stuff out and putting it back in. Unless it was essentially free, no thanks. But which company is effectively going to gift me a car? The best hope would be if it was a £20k investment at 6% to compensate me for it being a giant pain in the behind. 

Then you will stick with old ICE and high Taxes, sky high fuel duty and per mile travel taxes, or very old BEV models with ageing failing batteries. Like i said, "ownership" on new up to date BEV by 2030 will only be for the wealthy, like the 1920's. Having a "new" car for just your personal and family use will be back to a huge a status symbol. 

The wealthy will also lease new autopilot robotaxi's from Tesla to provide your transport, and profits for us, and Tesla. These will be ultra durable million mile models the owners will rarely see. They will work 24/7. your kids may have jobs cleaning them inside and out, also working for the wealthy cleaning company owner who has seen this business opertunity too. but they will have to compete for jobs with the ex Asian taxi drivers. They will priced out of existence. 

I plan to own 3-4 Tesla Robotaxis, in addition to mine and my wife's new Tesla's. 

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Tesco told us yesterday the extra costs are negligible.

With trade deals with smaller countries, we can import at world prices, tariff free.  This saving will overwhelm the negligible extra cost of importing from Europe.

It is calculated at £7bn / year. Can't remember the source....I'm sure you'll find it somewhere. Not quite negligible is it.

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Then you will stick with old ICE and high Taxes, sky high fuel duty and per mile travel taxes, or very old BEV models with ageing failing batteries. Like i said, "ownership" on new up to date BEV by 2030 will only be for the wealthy, like the 1920's. Having a "new" car for just your personal and family use will be back to a huge a status symbol. 

The wealthy will also lease new autopilot robotaxi's from Tesla to provide your transport, and profits for us, and Tesla. These will be ultra durable million mile models the owners will rarely see. They will work 24/7. your kids may have jobs cleaning them inside and out, also working for the wealthy cleaning company owner who has seen this business opertunity too. but they will have to compete for jobs with the ex Asian taxi drivers. They will priced out of existence. 

I plan to own 3-4 Tesla Robotaxis, in addition to mine and my wife's new Tesla's. 

Sounds like a wonderful utopia. 

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I'm not looking it up, but last figures I saw was each person in Scotland is subsidised by about £3k per year, if I recall correctly.

It's quite possible they could gain a little money by optimising trade deals for whiskey exports, but it seems unlikely this could compensate in full.  In any case they aim to re-join the EU, so this option will not be open to them.

Wales:  the same but more.

Looks like England would have been best served from leaving the UK instead of the EU.

There are is strong argument that the Scots have contributed more than they put in taking into account North Sea oil revenues..... so they should be seeking independence from the UK and closer alignment with the EU...as that would serve their economy best.

As for Wales...they would be best served tagging along with England whilst the coffers are open.

England... they can go it alone...a good test of your...size doen't matter experiment.... :)

 

 

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Then you will stick with old ICE and high Taxes, sky high fuel duty and per mile travel taxes, or very old BEV models with ageing failing batteries. Like i said, "ownership" on new up to date BEV by 2030 will only be for the wealthy, like the 1920's. Having a "new" car for just your personal and family use will be back to a huge a status symbol. 

The wealthy will also lease new autopilot robotaxi's from Tesla to provide your transport, and profits for us, and Tesla. These will be ultra durable million mile models the owners will rarely see. They will work 24/7. your kids may have jobs cleaning them inside and out, also working for the wealthy cleaning company owner who has seen this business opertunity too. but they will have to compete for jobs with the ex Asian taxi drivers. They will priced out of existence. 

I plan to own 3-4 Tesla Robotaxis, in addition to mine and my wife's new Tesla's. 

At least you are honest about what future you want to see. JRM must be so proud to have one of his disciples banging the drum for the few haves and the great many have nots. You must be laughing out loud at the thought of the plebs voting Brexit to aid this great vision of your future superiority.

I take it you are heavilly invested in Tesla to the exclusion of much else...

 

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I take it you are heavilly invested in Tesla to the exclusion of much else...

 

Tesla is about 20% of my long term SIPP Investments, was under 1% in 2016.  Once again the clever futurists make the gainz. 

Look at every other automakers shares, Terrible investments.

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Switch to fully driverless cities infrastructure is many decades away.

AI pipedream for now.

A lot of people see AI as a cliff edge, whereas the reality is driving will become increasingly AI argumented until making the move to full driverless will be a small step.

You can see various widgets appearing in cars even now, from sat nav to road sign reading. It probably started decades ago with the automatic gearbox.

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Sure. that is now. Do Telsa manufacture in Europe yet? VW started at the lower end, E-golf , E-up, Skoda City Go, ID3 , All being sold as a loss, zero profit, just to offset a €3000 fine per ice car sold for being above EU emissions targets. Why do you think they wont sell these Models in the USA? They lose money. So they sell the ID4 and big Audi's in the USA, as with 250k of federal tax credits worth $7500 per car they can make hay for a few years and make some profit. Then they have a problem. You see by 2022 with Tesla improvements the TMY will have reduced in cost a lot, and to match a base spec TMY SR+ , VW customers will have to ake a ID4 with no $7500 federal rebate anymore, and spec it up $10k just to match the TMY, which will be cheaper than the ID4 basic entry "life" model.  Game over. USA buyers will buy American. 

They will do the same in Europe once Gigafactory Berlin is churning out cars. Once Tesla launch the "C" class 5 door hatch in Europe, it will be better spec, faster, more luxurious, more efficient, better range than any ID3, and cheaper than a base model ID3 Life.  Again, to match the small Tesla you would have to buy a top spec ID3 and add €5k of optional extras. 

Lets revisit in 2023 and see how well the ID4 is doing against the TMY in Europe for 2023, and in 2026 see how well the Telsa model "C" is doing vs the ID3 in 2025.  

Telsa are also planning smaller a "B" segment /  "A" segment car for China, which could easily be the most affordable BEV for Africa too. 

You underestimate the capabilities of the  successful and experienced manufacturing countries/companies and over estimate the American beginners. And completely misunderstand customers.

Keep smoking Musk's Finest Weed.

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No, it's probably more.

"Extra red tape could cost British businesses around 17 billion pounds, equivalent to roughly $23 billion, a year, and EU-based businesses about £14 billion, according to estimates from law firm Clifford Chance."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/businesses-brace-for-disruption-despite-post-brexit-trade-deal-11608920866

You're right about subverting democracy. Glad you realise that lying as policy has no place in a well-run country.

About time.

It's paywalled so I can't really comment on the link.

However it will almost certainly be rubbish.  I have a friend who does a lot of import/export.  He says borders have not existed for big business for many years.  Also Tesco has told us the cost is negligible.

President Trump objected to car manufacturers in Mexico paying workers at far below the US rate and thus undercutting US based manufacturers.  He demanded that Mexican car workers be paid $16/h or there would be import tariffs.  We could do something similar here.  We could demand that EU workers involved in goods being imported to the UK are paid the UK typical wage for that job.  The Level Playing Field.  Yes I know there is little chance of the Tories doing this, but we will have a Labour government eventually.

I remind again that the Labour 1983 election manifesto promised to take us out the EU.  Also that in 1973, the Left were all against EEC membership.  The TUC (the unions) were dead against it.  Jeremy Corbyn had a very recent conversion to the pro-EU side, perhaps to keep in with the Glastonbury crowd.  Before that he was dead against it, voting against every EU treaty.

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You underestimate the capabilities of the  successful and experienced manufacturing countries/companies and over estimate the American beginners. And completely misunderstand customers.

Keep smoking Musk's Finest Weed.

Wise words from Mr. Musk. "People over estimate what can be achieved in 2 years, and under estimate what they can achieve in 10 years". 

By 2030 ,  4 global car companies.  Telsa, VW , Toyota (or maybe Hyundai/ Kia, unsure) , 1 Chinese Automaker.  All other automakers will be "regional brands" owned by the big 4 , they wont develop cars anymore , just put regional variation shells and interiors on parent company Platforms, like Volvo do for Chinese owners, Seat and Skoda do for VW.  

So your new 12th Gen Honda Civic BEV , will be a 2025 Tesla Model C hatch platform , reskinned , and badge branded Honda for the Jap market, but owned by Tesla. 

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It is calculated at £7bn / year. Can't remember the source....I'm sure you'll find it somewhere. Not quite negligible is it.

Well is it £7bn or £17bn (See Jon2b link above)?  The fact there are such differing estimates probably means both are deluded.  I also remind you that UK/non-EU trade has been growing faster than UK/EU trade, despite the barriers.

Also, this money is paid to UK workers within the UK.  It will be largely spent here in the UK, so it is not a net loss.

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It's paywalled so I can't really comment on the link.

However it will almost certainly be rubbish.  I have a friend who does a lot of import/export.  He says borders have not existed for big business for many years.  Also Tesco has told us the cost is negligible.

 

You do understand that we have just imposed a border and customs between ourselves and the EU?

I used to work on a system we provided to a big UK consumer/pharma who exported its products all over the world. The department and software we developed for customs documentation employed 50 people.The paperwork was a royal pain in the butt. 

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Scotland is on the hook for a proportion of debt repayments for things unrelated to Scotland, so the true figure is not clear, but likely lower than £3k.

No I think the £3k figure is simply a measure of government spending versus tax take.  Their share of the national debt would increase this further.  It's well known that Scotland would have to cut state expenditure immensely to qualify for EU membership as an independent country.

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I remind again that the Labour 1983 election manifesto promised to take us out the EU.  Also that in 1973, the Left were all against EEC membership.  The TUC (the unions) were dead against it.  Jeremy Corbyn had a very recent conversion to the pro-EU side, perhaps to keep in with the Glastonbury crowd.  Before that he was dead against it, voting against every EU treaty.

Corbs gave the EU a 7/10 when asked about it last year. I personally hoped to see him lead the Lefty case for Leave. It would have made the debate less sectarian.

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No, it's probably more.

"Extra red tape could cost British businesses around 17 billion pounds, equivalent to roughly $23 billion, a year, and EU-based businesses about £14 billion, according to estimates from law firm Clifford Chance."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/businesses-brace-for-disruption-despite-post-brexit-trade-deal-11608920866

You're right about subverting democracy. Glad you realise that lying as policy has no place in a well-run country.

About time.

Like Brown reneging on the promise of a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty you mean?

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Wise words from Mr. Musk. "People over estimate what can be achieved in 2 years, and under estimate what they can achieve in 10 years". 

By 2030 ,  4 global car companies.  Telsa, VW , Toyota (or maybe Hyundai/ Kia, unsure) , 1 Chinese Automaker.  All other automakers will be "regional brands" owned by the big 4 , they wont develop cars anymore , just put regional variation shells and interiors on parent company Platforms, like Volvo do for Chinese owners, Seat and Skoda do for VW.  

So your new 12th Gen Honda Civic BEV , will be a 2025 Tesla Model C hatch platform , reskinned , and badge branded Honda for the Jap market, but owned by Tesla. 

The idea that Tesla will be allowed to become the monopoly supplier of electric vehicle technologies to the entire world is the most fantastically stupid thing I've ever read on HPC!

Musky can f**k off to Mars!

🤣

 

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