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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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Gone the days of buying an economical car that own, and run, and drive anywhere freely even on the other side of the channel, freedom to move, no expensive bureaucracy and red tape......the plan is road pricing pay by mile so that others can profitise from an ongoing income.....keep all the money you earn where you earn it, whilst enriching those that gain from it continue to have the freedom to move it where they get the best return from in special tax havens.......;)

The Galileo scheme is intended to facilitate road pricing, EU-wide.  That was its business case when it was planned.  So personally I don't shed a tear that we got kicked out of this one.

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I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

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The Galileo scheme is intended to facilitate road pricing, EU-wide.  That was its business case when it was planned.  So personally I don't shed a tear that we got kicked out of this one.

Sorry, that's the future, like it or not. Even now anyone who doesn't like the idea of everywhere they go and everything they do being recorded is regarded as a bit weird. Society's beyond saving already.

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Using components as parts of a vehicle structure is nothing new, motorbike have had the engine as part of the frame for decades, electric bicycles have batteries as part of the frame etc, etc. There have been all sorts of car chassis designs that have good and bad points and its not uniquely Tesla who make a the battery pack as party of the vehicle structure. All of this is engineering, not magic.

As for batteries, there are dozens of technologies being developed to improve batteries, anything Tesla do may or may not exceed that.  I'm  more interested in solid state batteries , which Tesla are not pursuing and could seriously disadvantage them if successful.

Ford, BTW, are using the MEB platform. Until they develop their own, I presume. The Japanese are following their own path in cars and separately in Motorbikes (aiming for commonality).

The biggest threat is to the supply chain, not the manufacturers themselves. May of these will die.

Manufacturers long ago realised that cooperation with shared platforms is the ways to go and Tesla's go it alone strategy the road to ruin.

 

Battery factory in northern Sweden raises $1,6 billion, signs deal with BMW

The European car industry’s transition to electric power-trains, combined with financial institutions hunt for green projects, proves successful for Northvolt, which now says it targets a 25 percent market share in Europe’s battery production by 2030.
 
With an additional $1.6 billion in debt, Northvolt has to date raised over $3 billion to support the construction of its battery gigafactories in Skellefteå, Sweden, and in Salzgitter, Germany.

While construction of the German factory is slated for 2021, works are in full progress at the site outside Skellefteå in northern Sweden. The first large-scale manufacturing of lithium-ion battery cells will commence in 2021 with a planned annual capacity to ramp up to 32 GWh by 2024.

The $1.6 loans are raised through a consortium of commercial banks, pension funds and public financial institutions, Northvolt says in a news-release.

The boost in available cash comes as the company recently signed a €2 billion supply contract with the BMW Group. The German car producer will buy battery cells from the Skellefteå factory from 2024 to its growing selections of electric cars, like the new iX3 SUV and the forthcoming BMW i4 and all-electric versions of the 5 Series and 7 Series.

BMW has said it will have 4.6 million all-electric cars on the roads within the next ten years.

Northvolt’s second factory, in Salzgitter, is to be built as a 50/50 joint venture with Volkswagen, Europe’s largest car-maker with almost 70 all-electric vehicles to be introduced to its portfolio within the next decade.

Additional to producing batteries from new metals, Northvolt says it aims at supplying 50 percent of its production with raw material secured from recycled batteries. A recycling line will be built in Skellefteå.

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/industry-and-energy/2020/08/battery-factory-northern-sweden-raises-16bn-signs-deal-bmw

 
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No it won't. It will just be the same thing all over again.

My feeling is that all sides want this over with and off the news agenda.  They will want to put this behind us and get on with more important stuff.  It's also generated a really surprising amount of hate and ridiculousness, so best not to re-ignite all that again.

It's only my feeling though.  There is obviously a large snouts-in-the trough Brexit industry been developed, and I guess they will want to keep their gravy train running.  So maybe that will prevail?  Who knows.

We'll just have to see, however my money is on the first option at the mo.

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We send £350 million to the EU a week.

LETS SPEND IT ON RED TAPE INSTEAD.

It won't come to £350m a week.  There are electronic systems in the wings which will make it much easier.   It should, of course, have been in place already, but too many people were still concentrating on subverting democracy instead of getting on with more constructive things.

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It won't come to £350m a week.  There are electronic systems in the wings which will make it much easier.   It should, of course, have been in place already, but too many people were still concentrating on subverting democracy instead of getting on with more constructive things.

What will it come to? £250 million a week? £300 million a week. Certainly a very significant proportion of the cost of membership.... and in exchange we get less trade with our largest partner. Nice one.

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How much do you think England subsidises the rest of the union?

I'm not looking it up, but last figures I saw was each person in Scotland is subsidised by about £3k per year, if I recall correctly.

It's quite possible they could gain a little money by optimising trade deals for whiskey exports, but it seems unlikely this could compensate in full.  In any case they aim to re-join the EU, so this option will not be open to them.

Wales:  the same but more.

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Sorry, that's the future, like it or not. Even now anyone who doesn't like the idea of everywhere they go and everything they do being recorded is regarded as a bit weird. Society's beyond saving already.

Yes I know, but anything that delays it is good in my book.  If I can get to retirement age before it comes in, it won't have much impact on me.

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This is a very naive view and assumes that the smaller partner can hold out for a trade deal on fair terms, often that is not the case. If you have worked in any business then you would know this. The larger company controls market share, they have multiple sources that they can tap into to satisfy that market share and multiple untapped sources queing up to do business. 

Perhaps we need to look at some examples of small nation/large nation trade deals that have been done.  I bet we can't find many examples of where the deal is only beneficial to one side.  If the deal is not advantageous to the smaller country they wouldn't sign up to it.

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What will it come to? £250 million a week? £300 million a week. Certainly a very significant proportion of the cost of membership.... and in exchange we get less trade with our largest partner. Nice one.

Tesco told us yesterday the extra costs are negligible.

With trade deals with smaller countries, we can import at world prices, tariff free.  This saving will overwhelm the negligible extra cost of importing from Europe.

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Perhaps we need to look at some examples of small nation/large nation trade deals that have been done.  I bet we can't find many examples of where the deal is only beneficial to one side.  If the deal is not advantageous to the smaller country they wouldn't sign up to it.

Of course not. Likewise the evolution of the global economy into geographical trading blocs.

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Everything is awesome 😕: EU-UK RELATIONS - Big changes compared to benefits of EU membership.pdf

 

Some commentary:

 

Brexiteer viewpoint

The deal: not what it looks like

The first mistake is to look at this deal, or indeed any EU deal, as a boilerplate FTA. But this one especially. It is not an FTA. It is a partnership agreement. The framework for developing closer ties. As with most such agreements the content of the deal is less important than the institutional architecture. This one sets up a Partnership Council, 19 specialised committees and four working groups which will no doubt be expanded over time.

In effect, these are negotiating silos. The Brexit trade talks have only just begun. Though the deal does not contain much of what we might have hoped for, it is broad if not deep, and must be looked at in the wider context of the the whole relationship including the withdrawal agreement and the Withdrawal Act which ports EU regulation into UK law. Retained regulation will continue to play a major role in rebuilding the equivalence arrangements. We must also take into account the separate declarations effectively following Australia’s strategy of unilateral alignment.

In addition, as we have already explored, the deal does dispense with EU law, but in a very significant way pivots toward Geneva, encompassing all of the major international organisations which form the basis of most EU technical law.

https://www.turbulenttimes.co.uk/news/trade/the-deal-not-what-it-looks-like/

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The deal gets us out of the immediate political and trading crisis at the end of transition (not discounting the imminent border/beurocratic hassles.

It's an end to the beginning. Brexit is over.

We now begin negotiations about the kind of relationship the UK and EU are going to have moving forward, with new structures that will evolve to suit circumstance.

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It won't come to £350m a week.  There are electronic systems in the wings which will make it much easier.   It should, of course, have been in place already, but too many people were still concentrating on subverting democracy instead of getting on with more constructive things.

 

No, it's probably more.

"Extra red tape could cost British businesses around 17 billion pounds, equivalent to roughly $23 billion, a year, and EU-based businesses about £14 billion, according to estimates from law firm Clifford Chance."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/businesses-brace-for-disruption-despite-post-brexit-trade-deal-11608920866

You're right about subverting democracy. Glad you realise that lying as policy has no place in a well-run country.

About time.

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The deal gets us out of the immediate political and trading crisis at the end of transition (not discounting the imminent border/beurocratic hassles.

It's an end to the beginning. Brexit is over.

We now begin negotiations about the kind of relationship the UK and EU are going to have moving forward, with new structures that will evolve to suit circumstance.

 

Its going to reduce our exports. as it stands.

Furthermore, after the 31 December, it will be the importer which assumes liability for defective products and the payment of compensation if the final buyer is harmed: death, personal injury or material damage to personal belongings.

Within the Single Market, the supplier retains some (and sometimes the entire) responsibility but, after 31 December, UK suppliers are outside EU jurisdiction, which is why liability falls on the importers. They are established in the EU and thus come within the jurisdiction of EU law.

In terms of competing for business in the EU, this will have a significant impact. Where an EU-based buyer has a choice, it is obviously safer to purchase goods from enterprises within the Single Market, where the liability will be reduced.

The same applies generally, as the importer has to assume responsibility for the cumbersome bureaucracy involved in procuring goods from the UK, compared with the ease of making purchases from suppliers within the customs area/Single Market.

Given also the financial risk, where the importer can end up having to pay inspection fees (and associated storage charges), and suffer any attendant delay, it becomes more difficult for a UK supplier to guarantee delivery dates, while product costs become extremely unpredictable.

These are just some of the non-tariff barriers which Johnson says do not exist. And yet, we’ve barely even touched on the problems traders will encounter.

https://www.turbulenttimes.co.uk/news/brexit/brexit-hidden-perils/

 

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VW ID.3 best selling BEV in Europe. Tesla don't sell in Africa but older electric car manufacturers do, because Tesla is too expensive.

Sad, delusional, Tesla fanboy.

Sure. that is now. Do Telsa manufacture in Europe yet? VW started at the lower end, E-golf , E-up, Skoda City Go, ID3 , All being sold as a loss, zero profit, just to offset a €3000 fine per ice car sold for being above EU emissions targets. Why do you think they wont sell these Models in the USA? They lose money. So they sell the ID4 and big Audi's in the USA, as with 250k of federal tax credits worth $7500 per car they can make hay for a few years and make some profit. Then they have a problem. You see by 2022 with Tesla improvements the TMY will have reduced in cost a lot, and to match a base spec TMY SR+ , VW customers will have to ake a ID4 with no $7500 federal rebate anymore, and spec it up $10k just to match the TMY, which will be cheaper than the ID4 basic entry "life" model.  Game over. USA buyers will buy American. 

They will do the same in Europe once Gigafactory Berlin is churning out cars. Once Tesla launch the "C" class 5 door hatch in Europe, it will be better spec, faster, more luxurious, more efficient, better range than any ID3, and cheaper than a base model ID3 Life.  Again, to match the small Tesla you would have to buy a top spec ID3 and add €5k of optional extras. 

Lets revisit in 2023 and see how well the ID4 is doing against the TMY in Europe for 2023, and in 2026 see how well the Telsa model "C" is doing vs the ID3 in 2025.  

Telsa are also planning smaller a "B" segment /  "A" segment car for China, which could easily be the most affordable BEV for Africa too. 

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They even wrote a book about it

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Britannia-Unchained-Global-Lessons-Prosperity/dp/1137032235#ace-g0979249316

by K. Kwarteng (Author), P. Patel (Contributor), D. Raab (Contributor), C. Skidmore (Contributor), E. Truss (Contributor)

That's the one where they say the problem is that lazy workers in the UK are the problem and removing their employment rights will sharpen them up. I am sure that's what Brexiteers were voting for. 

 

 

 

 

I don't recognise that. Sorry, not me.

The only running gag I have with you is your panto fetish.

Oh no you don't. 

 

Yes, BRINO.

Any variation from EU standards will result in tariffs. At our insistence there will be no courts involved so we have not option but to comply immediately.

Oops. 

 

ERG are going to be pissed, if they can gather enough braincells to figure it out.

We're safe, then. 

 

I don't think your logic is sound.  Low depreciation means it is better for the rich who can buy outright a brand new car (or the relatively affluent who can finance a brand new car) but awful for those with minimal means as they depend upon depreciation to acquire any car.

Yep. I rely on it to make things work for me. 

 

 

 

 

Using components as parts of a vehicle structure is nothing new, motorbike have had the engine as part of the frame for decades, electric bicycles have batteries as part of the frame etc, etc. There have been all sorts of car chassis designs that have good and bad points and its not uniquely Tesla who make a the battery pack as party of the vehicle structure. All of this is engineering, not magic.

It does make it tricky, especially if OEMs are not honest about spec changes, which has happened in other areas. Or even if they are honest but that structural component now doesn't meet spec, requiring a redesign of other elements. 

 

The biggest threat is to the supply chain, not the manufacturers themselves. May of these will die.

Yes. Luckily for my friend, his area is common to any vehicle. 

 

Manufacturers long ago realised that cooperation with shared platforms is the ways to go and Tesla's go it alone strategy the road to ruin.

Yes, they can potentially put a lot more engineers on the job. 

One of the interesting things about the Tesla designs is that externally it looks very similar to the generic body type used for test verification, but that might be because all cars look like that now :)

 

It won't come to £350m a week. 

 

If it's greater than net £250m, it's a loss. Where is that NHS money going to come from? 

 

There are electronic systems in the wings

They can only be a partial solution, have costs, and are at least eighteen months away, assuming it all works. 

 

which will make it much easier. 

The NHS iT project failed. 

 

  It should, of course, have been in place already, but too many people were still concentrating on subverting democracy instead of getting on with more constructive things.

No, there wasn't a deal in place. The firms working on this said they needed to know long before. We could have had this deal months ago, given a chance it would be less late for the IT. 

 

I'm not looking it up, but last figures I saw was each person in Scotland is subsidised by about £3k per year, if I recall correctly.

Scotland is on the hook for a proportion of debt repayments for things unrelated to Scotland, so the true figure is not clear, but likely lower than £3k.

 

It's quite possible they could gain a little money by optimising trade deals for whiskey exports, but it seems unlikely this could compensate in full.  In any case they aim to re-join the EU, so this option will not be open to them.

Wales:  the same but more.

 

 

Tesco told us yesterday the extra costs are negligible.

Costs are not trade volumes. 

 

With trade deals with smaller countries, we can import at world prices, tariff free.

Which smaller countries that have things we want? Two of our biggest non-EU partners are USA, China. 

 

  This saving will overwhelm the negligible extra cost of importing from Europe.

 

 

How does a small saving on a minority of trade offset a theoretical larger tariff on trade with the EU? 

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Brexiteer viewpoint

The deal: not what it looks like

The first mistake is to look at this deal, or indeed any EU deal, as a boilerplate FTA. But this one especially. It is not an FTA. It is a partnership agreement. The framework for developing closer ties. As with most such agreements the content of the deal is less important than the institutional architecture. This one sets up a Partnership Council, 19 specialised committees and four working groups which will no doubt be expanded over time.

In effect, these are negotiating silos. The Brexit trade talks have only just begun. Though the deal does not contain much of what we might have hoped for, it is broad if not deep, and must be looked at in the wider context of the the whole relationship including the withdrawal agreement and the Withdrawal Act which ports EU regulation into UK law. Retained regulation will continue to play a major role in rebuilding the equivalence arrangements. We must also take into account the separate declarations effectively following Australia’s strategy of unilateral alignment.

In addition, as we have already explored, the deal does dispense with EU law, but in a very significant way pivots toward Geneva, encompassing all of the major international organisations which form the basis of most EU technical law.

https://www.turbulenttimes.co.uk/news/trade/the-deal-not-what-it-looks-like/

So it's not over as some might say? 

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Sure. that is now. Do Telsa manufacture in Europe yet? VW started at the lower end, E-golf , E-up, Skoda City Go, ID3 , All being sold as a loss, zero profit, just to offset a €3000 fine per ice car sold for being above EU emissions targets. Why do you think they wont sell these Models in the USA? They lose money. So they sell the ID4 and big Audi's in the USA, as with 250k of federal tax credits worth $7500 per car they can make hay for a few years and make some profit. Then they have a problem. You see by 2022 with Tesla improvements the TMY will have reduced in cost a lot, and to match a base spec TMY SR+ , VW customers will have to ake a ID4 with no $7500 federal rebate anymore, and spec it up $10k just to match the TMY, which will be cheaper than the ID4 basic entry "life" model.  Game over. USA buyers will buy American. 

They will do the same in Europe once Gigafactory Berlin is churning out cars.

It's a battery factory, I thought, not a car plant? 

 

 

Once Tesla launch the "C" class 5 door hatch in Europe, it will be better spec, faster, more luxurious, more efficient, better range than any ID3, and cheaper than a base model ID3 Life.  Again, to match the small Tesla you would have to buy a top spec ID3 and add €5k of optional extras. 

Lets revisit in 2023 and see how well the ID4 is doing against the TMY in Europe for 2023, and in 2026 see how well the Telsa model "C" is doing vs the ID3 in 2025.  

Telsa are also planning smaller a "B" segment /  "A" segment car for China, which could easily be the most affordable BEV for Africa too. 

Other firms are already selling in Africa, and even setting up manufacturing there. Sounds ike Tesla is late to the game. 

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Its going to reduce our exports. as it stands.

Furthermore, after the 31 December, it will be the importer which assumes liability for defective products and the payment of compensation if the final buyer is harmed: death, personal injury or material damage to personal belongings.

Within the Single Market, the supplier retains some (and sometimes the entire) responsibility but, after 31 December, UK suppliers are outside EU jurisdiction, which is why liability falls on the importers. They are established in the EU and thus come within the jurisdiction of EU law.

In terms of competing for business in the EU, this will have a significant impact. Where an EU-based buyer has a choice, it is obviously safer to purchase goods from enterprises within the Single Market, where the liability will be reduced.

The same applies generally, as the importer has to assume responsibility for the cumbersome bureaucracy involved in procuring goods from the UK, compared with the ease of making purchases from suppliers within the customs area/Single Market.

Given also the financial risk, where the importer can end up having to pay inspection fees (and associated storage charges), and suffer any attendant delay, it becomes more difficult for a UK supplier to guarantee delivery dates, while product costs become extremely unpredictable.

These are just some of the non-tariff barriers which Johnson says do not exist. And yet, we’ve barely even touched on the problems traders will encounter.

https://www.turbulenttimes.co.uk/news/brexit/brexit-hidden-perils/

 

Grim stuff. 

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I don't think your logic is sound.  Low depreciation means it is better for the rich who can buy outright a brand new car (or the relatively affluent who can finance a brand new car) but awful for those with minimal means as they depend upon depreciation to acquire any car.

Eventually, the Tesla-3 will wear out and only be good for scrap.  Until that time, commanding a premium second hand price does not advantage the have-nots, it advantages the haves.

You missed a step in my posts further upstream.  My point was in the near future, 2030, the poor wont own non ICE cars anymore, as BEV will be too expensive for the reasons above, and you affirmed. So as i said, They "wealthy" like me, will each own 3-4 cars, I for personal family use as a status symbol like in the 1920's, the others will be Tesla autonomus robotaxis , on joint income lease deals with Tesla. 

The poor wont own, they will hail a Tesla M3 / MY robotaxi when they want a journey and pay a per mile fee. Tesla will retain 25% of the fee for running the "network" and the owner will get 75% of the fee to pay the Telsa lease and running costs, insurance, etc. 

Yes after about 1m miles (the Tesla goal and estimate) the car will be "retired" and parts availability will be withheld from poor, or very very expensive, so there will ne economical way for the poor to now own a car through depreciation. Thye may aquire one that works, just, but tesla will want $$$$ repair costs before they will let it drive on the road. dont want to pay? They send 1 signal over the air, the car is now a brick, scrap only. 

lots of changes coming within a decade. Best to get wealthy, buy bitcoin now.

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Its going to reduce our exports. as it stands.

Furthermore, after the 31 December, it will be the importer which assumes liability for defective products and the payment of compensation if the final buyer is harmed: death, personal injury or material damage to personal belongings.

Within the Single Market, the supplier retains some (and sometimes the entire) responsibility but, after 31 December, UK suppliers are outside EU jurisdiction, which is why liability falls on the importers. They are established in the EU and thus come within the jurisdiction of EU law.

In terms of competing for business in the EU, this will have a significant impact. Where an EU-based buyer has a choice, it is obviously safer to purchase goods from enterprises within the Single Market, where the liability will be reduced.

The same applies generally, as the importer has to assume responsibility for the cumbersome bureaucracy involved in procuring goods from the UK, compared with the ease of making purchases from suppliers within the customs area/Single Market.

Given also the financial risk, where the importer can end up having to pay inspection fees (and associated storage charges), and suffer any attendant delay, it becomes more difficult for a UK supplier to guarantee delivery dates, while product costs become extremely unpredictable.

These are just some of the non-tariff barriers which Johnson says do not exist. And yet, we’ve barely even touched on the problems traders will encounter.

https://www.turbulenttimes.co.uk/news/brexit/brexit-hidden-perils/

 

I had a European supplier go bust after supplying £3m worth of kit. Luckily the OEMs were helpful. But if I was in Europe I'd always consider risk in the reverse case, but if it was UK manufactured products I might have pause for thought. I'd want additional assurances from the OEMs. In a competitive tender, though, then a solution otherwise OK and neck-and-neck with another but with that sort of risk would not be the winning one. 

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