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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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You sound like the person who's be telling someone about to have their leg amputated how great it'll be because of how much they'll save on shoes. Which might be the case, but it's going to be immensely painful, need lots of physical therapy, there will be periods of depression and anger, phantom limb pains and that stump is going to get so sore sometimes you aren't going to want to get out of bed. And since you're likely to have a prosthetic you're not actually going to save on shoes.

(I used to share a house with an amputee). 

Great analogy.

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I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

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My feeling is it's done and finished now.  No-one wants to go through all this again.  The current deal will be rubber stamped by both sides in 4 years' time, the only thing that might happen is adding a few marginal things to it.

No it won't. It will just be the same thing all over again.

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  1. But that hides the fact that trade has been increasing with the EU, just that the rest of the world has been catching up. Besides, the EU, as others have said are already doing trade deal with the ROW, which we would have benefitted from. The issue is, can we, with lesser clout do a better deal. That has yet to be proven. Size is power.
  2. This is nonsense. We import from the EU things we don't want, can't or are inefficient to produce in the UK. To a great extent, that will not change, other than we import from further afield. 
  3. Depends on what happens next. If the economy suffers then we might get our HPC, but it will be at a cost that will not benefit the UK.

1. Exactly. Our exports to the EU stand at about 44% of output - but it's higher margin - which people forget. The ROW deals the EU has yields another 15% since the Japan, South Korea and Canada deals were done.

2. Even during the war, we still needed to import around a third of our food to avoid starving. Since Thatcher and Minford, our manufacturing capacity and expertise has been hit hard. Now we'll never catch up.

3. Yup, I'm looking forward to the mass of newly unemployed millions trying to buy a house while competing against the foreigners buying whole streets at distressed prices.

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Apparently it was a nightmare in WW2 when T-34 production changes were rolled in that quickly, but when something is not do much going to be repaired so much as wrecked end-to-end by an 88mm shell, probably less of a concern. 

Yes. Fascinating stuff. They even stopped filing off the burrs from rough metal welding as it saved time.

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Correct, in terms of trade deals only they would be no worse off, and maybe better off.

I really don't believe that, but let's  put it to one side for now.

 

This would be eclipsed by them no longer being subsidised by England however.

How much do you think England subsidises the rest of the union?

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That is my thinking too. This is a soft transition to something else. People will say this is not so bad, so what will more of the same bring us? We will be in for the hard break away, all rules will be cast aside, the NHS up for grabs, workers rights tossed aside etc.... the full JRM wet dream.

I live near large land owners. You don't want to know what they think of the plebs that live next to them....they are above the rest of us.....I don't thrust the likes of BJ's or the JRM's of this world...with good reason. They really don't care about the average person. They care about the power they hold over you....to exert at there will...they want control over you, for their personal benefit.

They even wrote a book about it

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Britannia-Unchained-Global-Lessons-Prosperity/dp/1137032235#ace-g0979249316

by K. Kwarteng (Author), P. Patel (Contributor), D. Raab (Contributor), C. Skidmore (Contributor), E. Truss (Contributor)

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Same as its always been to collect more rents from the poor, who have no other choice but to work to pay it and work to consume.....consume stuff that takes their minds away from mundane life with no way out......consume stuff that has the most tax attached to it.....;)

Bullseye !

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I'm saying this is a completely mistaken view of the process.  An FTA is not bullying one side or the other, it is freely engaged in by both sides, gone through sector by sector.  No-one needs to sign up to anything they don't want.

This is a very naive view and assumes that the smaller partner can hold out for a trade deal on fair terms, often that is not the case. If you have worked in any business then you would know this. The larger company controls market share, they have multiple sources that they can tap into to satisfy that market share and multiple untapped sources queing up to do business. 

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How the hell am I supposed to know which pejoratives you use for publications? 

Fair enough, was a running gag with IMHAL.

Anyway, any ERG flap over fish is fishy, if you ask me, yes we face tariffs if we tell the EU to sling their hook in '26 but we'd get immediate tariffs under no deal (without the proposed 25% increase in what we can take/sell tariff free).

ERG got their big asks.

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Same as its always been to collect more rents from the poor, who have no other choice but to work to pay it and work to consume.....consume stuff that takes their minds away from mundane life with no way out......consume stuff that has the most tax attached to it.....;)

This will actually be better for the poor. Electric cars require vastly less maintenance, so devalue less, and their batteries can be resued elsewhere. So they have a floor to their devaluation. So far the 3 year depreciation rate for a Tesla model 3 is 20%.  Buy new $40, buy 2017 model, $32k.  

As BEV just go on and on they hold their value. The poor cant afford this.  So they will just rent their transport in the future. Having you own car for just your family will be back to the 1920's, a luxury and status symbol. 

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https://davidallengreen.com/2020/12/this-agreement-is-not-the-end-of-brexit-it-is-a-five-year-political-truce/

Interesting analysis that the agreement is an ongoing alignment mechanism pretty close to actual membership in its style and function... BRINO in other words?

Good article 

 

the Eu have the uk in same spot as Switzerland now with endless negotiations and big sticks to keep uk in line

 

hey has the 350 million a week to nhs materialised? That was a concrete promise of brexit driven up and down the country on side of bus by current prime minister 

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https://davidallengreen.com/2020/12/this-agreement-is-not-the-end-of-brexit-it-is-a-five-year-political-truce/

Interesting analysis that the agreement is an ongoing alignment mechanism pretty close to actual membership in its style and function... BRINO in other words?

Yes - as discussed with @thehowler above:

"The agreement instead shows, even in its first two substantive provisions, that Brexit will be an ongoing negotiation, maybe one without end."

Also interesting to note that 2026, while following EU cycles is also potentially two years after the next election and would give the EU a chance to see the UKs direction of travel.

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No legacy ICE can convert its volume sales to EV without going bust. They will ALL only sell enough BEV Annually to ensure they don’t pay global emissions fines. Which will kill them all.  You will see virtually no BEV models for sale (except Tesla) in any areas that has no emissions fines, like Africa and India. So there will be hard limits to how many BEV will be available for sale, way lower than demand. Tesla will produce more and more, and cheaper and cheaper. They will mop up all the demand. 2025 the cracks will be showing. Buy 2030 there will only be 4 car makers left, Tesla, VW and 2 others. None of the legacy USA Automakers will survive. all others will be regional brand badges like VW did to seat and Skoda. Tesla will be the biggest, with 40% global market share, but only 20% will badged Tesla, the other 40% will be Tesla tech platforms with regional brands and bodyshells (bmw and Honda) will be to Tesla what Seat and Skoda are to VW. 

VW ID.3 best selling BEV in Europe. Tesla don't sell in Africa but older electric car manufacturers do, because Tesla is too expensive.

Sad, delusional, Tesla fanboy.

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https://davidallengreen.com/2020/12/this-agreement-is-not-the-end-of-brexit-it-is-a-five-year-political-truce/

Interesting analysis that the agreement is an ongoing alignment mechanism pretty close to actual membership in its style and function... BRINO in other words?

Yes, BRINO.

Any variation from EU standards will result in tariffs. At our insistence there will be no courts involved so we have not option but to comply immediately.

ERG are going to be pissed, if they can gather enough braincells to figure it out.

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Subsidies won't work. 

When a single plant can turn out millions of cars a year, with a fraction of the workforce required for ICE production, the market will not support anything like the current number of manufactures.

There will be a handful of winners and the rest will be history. 

Those opting to put their badges on other manufactures' platforms will soon become about as relevant as Vanden Plas were when they put their grill on the front of an Allegro.   

The relevance of all this to Brexit, is that Brexit came at exactly the right time to kill the UK's chance of being a major player in the post ICE world.  The last throw of the dice to try and keep a supply chain in the UK would probably be to give Musk whatever he asks for to open a major plant in the UK.

However, given that the profits would go abroad it might be better to accept we have lost the car industry, put high purchase taxes on cars and spend the money raised on investing in areas where we still have some competitive advantage like aerospace and high end production..  

  

Fantastic nonsense.

Of course subsidies work. Subsidies are the only reason the US still has an auto manufacturing industry!

Existing ICE plants are capable of producing a million vehicles/yr already, and ICE manufacturers have been sharing platforms and technologies for years. There'll be fewer employed to screw the cars together in 2030 but many more employed to build out and maintain the network.

 

 

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I don't recognise that. Sorry, not me.

The only running gag I have with you is your panto fetish.

 

From December 15th...

 

A rebranding is in order I think. The New Englander?

The Little Englander?

"It certainly has a ring of truth about it."

Edited by thehowler
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This will actually be better for the poor. Electric cars require vastly less maintenance, so devalue less, and their batteries can be resued elsewhere. So they have a floor to their devaluation. So far the 3 year depreciation rate for a Tesla model 3 is 20%.  Buy new $40, buy 2017 model, $32k. 

I don't think your logic is sound.  Low depreciation means it is better for the rich who can buy outright a brand new car (or the relatively affluent who can finance a brand new car) but awful for those with minimal means as they depend upon depreciation to acquire any car.

Eventually, the Tesla-3 will wear out and only be good for scrap.  Until that time, commanding a premium second hand price does not advantage the have-nots, it advantages the haves.

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Everything is awesome 😕: EU-UK RELATIONS - Big changes compared to benefits of EU membership.pdf

 

Some commentary:

 

Edited by DarkHorseWaits-NoMore
updated
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The skateboard is old tech. Tesla has already said they will be moving from it to a new unitary design where the battery pack is part of the cars structure from 2022. 

While Tesla used standard batteries the electronics that turned them into a better longer lasting battery packs was far from standard and is still way ahead of the opposition.  From 2022 both the batteries and electronics will be proprietary Tesla tech. 

 

Using components as parts of a vehicle structure is nothing new, motorbike have had the engine as part of the frame for decades, electric bicycles have batteries as part of the frame etc, etc. There have been all sorts of car chassis designs that have good and bad points and its not uniquely Tesla who make a the battery pack as party of the vehicle structure. All of this is engineering, not magic.

As for batteries, there are dozens of technologies being developed to improve batteries, anything Tesla do may or may not exceed that.  I'm  more interested in solid state batteries , which Tesla are not pursuing and could seriously disadvantage them if successful.

Ford, BTW, are using the MEB platform. Until they develop their own, I presume. The Japanese are following their own path in cars and separately in Motorbikes (aiming for commonality).

The biggest threat is to the supply chain, not the manufacturers themselves. May of these will die.

Manufacturers long ago realised that cooperation with shared platforms is the ways to go and Tesla's go it alone strategy the road to ruin.

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I don't think your logic is sound.  Low depreciation means it is better for the rich who can buy outright a brand new car (or the relatively affluent who can finance a brand new car) but awful for those with minimal means as they depend upon depreciation to acquire any car.

Eventually, the Tesla-3 will wear out and only be good for scrap.  Until that time, commanding a premium second hand price does not advantage the have-nots, it advantages the haves.

It will be priced to affordability and demand, so will depreciate accordingly. This is another example of the Tesla fanatics mythology of "its different this time".

Electric cars will be less expensive than ICE with a year or three. Refurbishing batteries will be common and cost effective. The end result will be car production at half its current  level, especially if shared-self driving becomes popular. Watch Tesla's share price when that reality dawns.

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Yes, BRINO.

Any variation from EU standards will result in tariffs. At our insistence there will be no courts involved so we have not option but to comply immediately.

ERG are going to be pissed, if they can gather enough braincells to figure it out.

Yep, BRINO except no ECJ, no SM access, no CU, no FOM, new immigration system and out of the CFP in five years.

Arbitration committee process rules on any disputes - no lightning tariffs, no immediate compliance. And any dispute has to show there's a significant looming competitive/economic disadvantage, so in practice likely that any minor divergence won't result in action.

ERG will lap it up.

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