Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[NobodyInParticular]

 

I said no Little Englander.

The New European I wouldn't class as Little Englander - to me that would be the DE. Maybe you should provide a list of acceptable publications that meet your personal seal of approval. 

 

 

 

[markyh]

 

How many BEV does Tesla sell in Africa? 

Officially none. Tariffs are to high and leccy setup to poor. It would only be South Africa anyway at first, a second world country really, lots of 1st world bits with a majority 3rd population. Not many other areas of Africa could currently afford a Tesla or have good enough roads. They will develop a product in their roadmap when they need to. We will most like see a Gigafactory in South Africa by 2030. 

[thehowler]

 

Its crazy to think that NZ have better access into the EU for their Lamb than the UK does....but they have a mutual recognition of conformity agreement - which limits the SPS checks to 1 - 2%.

True, but you still get an awful lot of NZ lamb in the UK.

[NobodyInParticular]

 

Officially none. Tariffs are to high and leccy setup to poor. It would only be South Africa anyway at first, a second world country really, lots of 1st world bits with a majority 3rd population. Not many other areas of Africa could currently afford a Tesla or have good enough roads. They will develop a product in their roadmap when they need to. We will most like see a Gigafactory in South Africa by 2030. 

Nissan and JLR already sell in the SA market. Will Tesla be importing into or manufacturing in SA? 

[zugzwang]

 

Of course the potential exists.  Even within the SM, the share of trade with the EU has been declining.  It's the RoW that has been increasing fastest, and we have a trade surplus there.  Being in the SM is a drag on that increasing RoW trade.

That immense fleet of HGVs we see queuing for Dover is actually a bad thing, not a good thing as everyone seems to think.  It never used to be like that, we used to manage without.  We should be asking what the hell went wrong there for this situation to get like this, not try and increase their imports even more.

We've got the chance to make this work for the average person.  EU immigration will be limited, so not as much upward pressure on house prices and not as much downward pressure on salaries.

EU immigration has been below 100,000/yr net for the last three years. It's the 250,000+ that your Tory friends admit from the RoW every year that's the problem.

And even that number's likely to be eclipsed with the arrival of an estimated 600,000 HK Chinese!

[thehowler]

 

The New European I wouldn't class as Little Englander - to me that would be the DE. Maybe you should provide a list of acceptable publications that meet your personal seal of approval. 

 

Well, let's start with anything that isn't the DE or the Little Englander, as per my original post.

Outside these two shameless rags, do you have a source or journalist briefing that suggests the ERG are about to rebel?

[markyh]

 

Assuming by market share you mean numbers of cars rather than value, you are saying you expect Tesla to scale up production from 0.6m to 36.8m per year (assuming no growth in world production) by 2030? If we say a decade to make it simple, that's a 50% increase in output a year EVERY year. That sounds unlikely to me. 

Self Driving BEV will decimate car ownership in the first world by 2030. Tesla are the leaders here too. The wealthy (like me) will own 3-4 cars each. 1 for personal use only, the others will be leased in partnership with Tesla and “ubered” our to ferry the poor for a few. Tesla will retain about 25% of the few, the owner 75%. The poor will abandon 2nd hand cars, PAYG a self driving Tesl will be much cheaper, and they can stay in the pub longer not needing to drive home. 

[Dave Beans]

 

True, but you still get an awful lot of NZ lamb in the UK.

..Probably for many of these reasons...

British or New Zealand Lamb: Which Is More Sustainable? (ecoandbeyond.co)

[Confusion of VIs]

 

True, but you still get an awful lot of NZ lamb in the UK.

That's because UK lamb is considered a premium product and sells at higher price in the EU than NZ lamb. 

We sell a large proportion of our lamb to the EU and eat the cheaper NZ product ourselves. If there had been no deal we would have found ourselves in the tricky position of being unable to sell our lamb to the EU but still bound by long term agreements to buy our quota of NZ lamb.  

[markyh]

 

Nissan and JLR already sell in the SA market. Will Tesla be importing into or manufacturing in SA? 

Short term no, by 2030 yes. Far to much low hanging fruit in the 1st world to sell to yet. 4 Gigafactories at full production from 2022, vs 1 now. And then there is 3 piece gigiacasting construction combined with structural battery packs, 4680 tabless cells (only Tesla will have for 25 years due to patents). Like I said the cracks will be showing in legacy auto by 2025 as Tesla will be selling their $25k cheaper models by then. If you really want to understand how far ahead Tesla are hear it from Sandy Monroe @ Munroe Associates. They have a YouTube channel and several YouTube Tesla reports on how Tesla are doing stuff legacy iCE just can’t or won’t do. Search YouTube for Sandy Munroe Tesla. You may end up a Tesla share holder yet!!  I saw this coming in 2016, and invested. 

[Dave Beans]

 

Self Driving BEV will decimate car ownership in the first world by 2030. Tesla are the leaders here too. The wealthy (like me) will own 3-4 cars each. 1 for personal use only, the others will be leased in partnership with Tesla and “ubered” our to ferry the poor for a few. Tesla will retain about 25% of the few, the owner 75%. The poor will abandon 2nd hand cars, PAYG a self driving Tesl will be much cheaper, and they can stay in the pub longer not needing to drive home. 

So the plebs will become car less?  Remaining ICE will also be taxed off the road... There was a govt report (I posted a link to it a little while ago) that stated that net zero cannot be achieved with mass car ownership...

Edited December 27, 2020 by Dave Beans

[Confusion of VIs]

 

No, thats simply not true. All car manufacturers (bar one or two Japanese) are developing new platforms based on the skateboard format, shared or independent. This is no different from ICE platforms  and that has been the norm for decades. It doesn't take years to catch up with Tesla, the electrical tech is not car specific and has been developed oved a hundred years. Tesla's batteries were standard battery tech developed by outside companies.  

The skateboard is old tech. Tesla has already said they will be moving from it to a new unitary design where the battery pack is part of the cars structure from 2022. 

While Tesla used standard batteries the electronics that turned them into a better longer lasting battery packs was far from standard and is still way ahead of the opposition.  From 2022 both the batteries and electronics will be proprietary Tesla tech. 

 

VW and most of the EU companies have already transformed to EV and made the investment, the idea that legacy companies will roll over and die is laughable. They will not and have not done it. Smaller companies share the development cost of a new platform. 

VW has plans to invest £70bn in transitioning to EVs, so far they are about £5bn in. What other manufactures can afford that sort of investment, Toyata and?   

Covid has ensured the others will run out of money in pretty short order.  It is already happening Ford is having to pay 8-10% pa to raise cash with bonds that are now rated as junk and trading well below par.  What will happen when they try to raise the next £20 or £30bn.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-23/ford-cut-by-fitch-as-coronavirus-batters-economy

If you believe Ford will avoid bankruptcy you can buy their bonds and get a 10% annual return and a 20% bonus when they are redeemed.

 

[Confusion of VIs]

 

Well, let's start with anything that isn't the DE or the Little Englander, as per my original post.

Outside these two shameless rags, do you have a source or journalist briefing that suggests the ERG are about to rebel?

Surely they have to at least go through the motions, to avoid being held to account for the promised Brexit not materialising. 

NB Re the impact on services, our HR has just canvassed all staff asking if they have a route to an EU passport.  

[kzb]

 

You have never been in an argument or a fight with a bigger bloke then. You give stuff up to gain stuff, the bigger bloke gives up less and you give up more. The rules of the game are quite simple. The bigger you are, the less it matters if you deal with the smaller entity, you can afford to walk away and deal with another entity that will give you better terms. So you can also walk away, but there are less of the big guys around to deal with.

I'm saying this is a completely mistaken view of the process.  An FTA is not bullying one side or the other, it is freely engaged in by both sides, gone through sector by sector.  No-one needs to sign up to anything they don't want.

[kzb]

 

Given your reasoning, Wales or Scotland would automatically be better off outside the UK then? They would not have the rest of the union to consider when making trade deals, they could make deals equal to or better than they could within the UK that benefitted them. The size and power of the UK would be of no advantage to them. There is no advantage in the union at all. Is that right?

Correct, in terms of trade deals only they would be no worse off, and maybe better off.

This would be eclipsed by them no longer being subsidised by England however.

[longgone]

 

There is only 1 platform, MEB ,  everything else are just different shells and interior layouts.  I will assume the MEB is length adjustable not 1 fixed wheelbase though. 

VW, Audi, Skoda, and Seat, all these BEV are MEB platform.  

I wish them luck, ID3 delayed 10 months because they couldn't get the infotainment to talk to the rest of the cars systems, and had to manually update all held production cars once they fudged a fix. And new cars all being sold without working reversing sensors, they will fix eventually, because the software again, don't work properly. 

VW are not a Tech / Software company, Tesla are. If Tesla wanted every Tesla so play "Jingle Bells" for 60 seconds for the 12 days of Christmas every year, only when  four seats are occupied, and within 1 mile of a shopping centre, they could program this in a few days and beem it free overnight to update the fleet. 

VW cant get their reversing sensors, vampire battery drain and DAB to work perfectly. 

The platforms are not as rigged as the old ice platforms its more the setup of the battries and drive gear than the chassis sizing. And there are many more platforms than the meb, why would they produce 70 cars from cheap cars under 20k to 100k porsche ? 

MLB

J1

PPE

No doubt more in the running eventually, early days once they are upto speed there will be no point over paying for a tesla. I don't believe the products are particularly complicated. Teething problems with early cars, like I said the id3 range is a mule range its never a good idea to buy the first cars on any production.

 

[longgone]

 

Every volume auto manufacturer in the world receives either implicit or explicit support from central govt. None of them will be allowed to go bust as they transition from ICE to BEV.

The US auto industry recieved nearly $81bn in govt loans, incentives and stock purchases in 2009/10 alone.

Yep

The brands are going nowhere they will just platform share and rebadge.

 

 

[Confusion of VIs]

 

Every volume auto manufacturer in the world receives either implicit or explicit support from central govt. None of them will be allowed to go bust as they transition from ICE to BEV.

The US auto industry recieved nearly $81bn in govt loans, incentives and stock purchases in 2009/10 alone.

Subsidies won't work. 

When a single plant can turn out millions of cars a year, with a fraction of the workforce required for ICE production, the market will not support anything like the current number of manufactures.

There will be a handful of winners and the rest will be history. 

 

Yep

The brands are going nowhere they will just platform share and rebadge.

Those opting to put their badges on other manufactures' platforms will soon become about as relevant as Vanden Plas were when they put their grill on the front of an Allegro.   

The relevance of all this to Brexit, is that Brexit came at exactly the right time to kill the UK's chance of being a major player in the post ICE world.  The last throw of the dice to try and keep a supply chain in the UK would probably be to give Musk whatever he asks for to open a major plant in the UK.

However, given that the profits would go abroad it might be better to accept we have lost the car industry, put high purchase taxes on cars and spend the money raised on investing in areas where we still have some competitive advantage like aerospace and high end production..  

  

[NobodyInParticular]

 

Well, let's start with anything that isn't the DE or the Little Englander, as per my original post.

Outside these two shameless rags, do you have a source or journalist briefing that suggests the ERG are about to rebel?

How the hell am I supposed to know which pejoratives you use for publications? 

[NobodyInParticular]

 

Self Driving BEV will decimate car ownership in the first world by 2030. Tesla are the leaders here too. The wealthy (like me) will own 3-4 cars each. 1 for personal use only, the others will be leased in partnership with Tesla and “ubered” our to ferry the poor for a few. Tesla will retain about 25% of the few, the owner 75%. The poor will abandon 2nd hand cars, PAYG a self driving Tesl will be much cheaper, and they can stay in the pub longer not needing to drive home. 

By 2030? Unlikely. Lots of people will still want cars. 2040, maybe. There still aren't full self driving cars in mass production, although there might be by 2030.

Edited December 28, 2020 by NobodyInParticular

[NobodyInParticular]

 

Subsidies won't work. 

When a single plant can turn out millions of cars a year, with a fraction of the workforce required for ICE production, the market will not support anything like the current number of manufactures.

Why would this be the case for BEV and also not ICE? Productivity of the latter has also been increasing. 

 

There will be a handful of winners and the rest will be history. 

Those opting to put their badges on other manufactures' platforms will soon become about as relevant as Vanden Plas were when they put their grill on the front of an Allegro.   

The relevance of all this to Brexit, is that Brexit came at exactly the right time to kill the UK's chance of being a major player in the post ICE world. 

Sadly true. 

 

The last throw of the dice to try and keep a supply chain in the UK would probably be to give Musk whatever he asks for to open a major plant in the UK.

I'm not sure giving a capitalist the keys to the Kingdom is wise, especially one as mercurial as Musk. You have to hope he listens to his advisers. 

 

However, given that the profits would go abroad it might be better to accept we have lost the car industry, put high purchase taxes on cars and spend the money raised on investing in areas where we still have some competitive advantage like aerospace and high end production..  

It sounds like aerospace is done too to some extent, unless the current deal saves it. But a four year review is a bit short for such decisions. 

[winkie]

 

Self Driving BEV will decimate car ownership in the first world by 2030. Tesla are the leaders here too. The wealthy (like me) will own 3-4 cars each. 1 for personal use only, the others will be leased in partnership with Tesla and “ubered” our to ferry the poor for a few. Tesla will retain about 25% of the few, the owner 75%. The poor will abandon 2nd hand cars, PAYG a self driving Tesl will be much cheaper, and they can stay in the pub longer not needing to drive home. 

Same as its always been to collect more rents from the poor, who have no other choice but to work to pay it and work to consume.....consume stuff that takes their minds away from mundane life with no way out......consume stuff that has the most tax attached to it.....

[winkie]

Gone the days of buying an economical car that own, and run, and drive anywhere freely even on the other side of the channel, freedom to move, no expensive bureaucracy and red tape......the plan is road pricing pay by mile so that others can profitise from an ongoing income.....keep all the money you earn where you earn it, whilst enriching those that gain from it continue to have the freedom to move it where they get the best return from in special tax havens.......

[debtlessmanc]

 

That's because UK lamb is considered a premium product and sells at higher price in the EU than NZ lamb. 

We sell a large proportion of our lamb to the EU and eat the cheaper NZ product ourselves. If there had been no deal we would have found ourselves in the tricky position of being unable to sell our lamb to the EU but still bound by long term agreements to buy our quota of NZ lamb.  

I thought the deal it was pushed through by France in return for the release of its murderous agents?
 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/94437456/jonathan-milne-unmasked-rainbow-warrior-spy-should-be-stripped-of-her-legion-dhonneur-medal

Edited December 28, 2020 by debtlessmanc

[jonb2]

 

Still looking backwards.  I doubt anyone seriously claimed that the trade deal with the EU would be better for EU trade.

It will be better in the sense it is better for Britain overall.

Four years, we should give things a bit longer than that.  Anyhow, would the EU have us back after such a short time?  It will be 10 or 20 years before there is that choice, and I am 90% sure hardly anyone in the UK will want to rejoin by then.

We send £350 million to the EU a week.

LETS SPEND IT ON RED TAPE INSTEAD.