Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[kzb]

 

Apologies, I misunderstood. So trade with the rest of the world? That's surely what the UK has been trying to do alongside being in the EU with membership of the EU being advantageous to securing good trade deals. Most of the ones the UK now has are just rollovers of those EU brokered ones, and they are unlikely to be as good when they enter review. And we have 53, but as part of the EU we had 750. So whilst it's mig impossible for the UK to increase trade with RoW more quickly outside the EU it's pretty unlikely. And regulatory levers that might have been used (although making life less fun in the UK) have been taken away by the deal just signed. 

The EU takes 15 years to agree a trade deal, on a good day.

Those deals have to please 27 other disparate economies not just ours.

So I can't think why you think UK only deals won't be as good.  They should be better, because they are optimised for the UK, not 28 very different countries.

[NobodyInParticular]

 

i don't see a lot of noise from the ERG. Feel free to quote a source, as long as it's not from the DE.

 

I'm not sure a random Tweet with some opinion is a source. 

[thehowler]

 

Apologies, I misunderstood. So trade with the rest of the world? That's surely what the UK has been trying to do alongside being in the EU with membership of the EU being advantageous to securing good trade deals. Most of the ones the UK now has are just rollovers of those EU brokered ones, and they are unlikely to be as good when they enter review. And we have 53, but as part of the EU we had 750. So whilst it's mig impossible for the UK to increase trade with RoW more quickly outside the EU it's pretty unlikely. And regulatory levers that might have been used (although making life less fun in the UK) have been taken away by the deal just signed. 

750? More than three times the number of nation states on the planet?

Impressive.

You outdo yourself.

[NobodyInParticular]

 

The EU takes 15 years to agree a trade deal, on a good day.

The last two major deals (excluding the UK one) took half that. 

 

So I can't think why you think UK only deals won't be as good. 

Size and power. 

 

They should be better, because they are optimised for the UK, not 28 very different countries.

Size and power. The UK-Japan one isn't optimised for the UK, more for Japan. 

[thehowler]

 

I'm not sure a random Tweet with some opinion is a source. 

What have you got?

And please no DE or Little Englander.

Edited December 27, 2020 by thehowler

[kzb]

 

Sorry, I don't see the potential or believe the potential exists, at least not without sacrificing something else which has yet to be determined. And it will be me, you and the average people who will be making that sacrifice.  

Of course the potential exists.  Even within the SM, the share of trade with the EU has been declining.  It's the RoW that has been increasing fastest, and we have a trade surplus there.  Being in the SM is a drag on that increasing RoW trade.

That immense fleet of HGVs we see queuing for Dover is actually a bad thing, not a good thing as everyone seems to think.  It never used to be like that, we used to manage without.  We should be asking what the hell went wrong there for this situation to get like this, not try and increase their imports even more.

We've got the chance to make this work for the average person.  EU immigration will be limited, so not as much upward pressure on house prices and not as much downward pressure on salaries.

[kzb]

 

Size and power. 

This is a myth that seems to have become accepted truth amongst remainers.  Small countries enter trade deals with large ones all the time.  The process is governed by UN treaty.  The small country does not have to sign up to anything it does not like.  The way forward is sectorial deals anyhow.

[pig]

 

My feeling is it's done and finished now.  No-one wants to go through all this again.  The current deal will be rubber stamped by both sides in 4 years' time, the only thing that might happen is adding a few marginal things to it.

No - I think we can recover from Brexit, and the young have no intention of being locked up in Brexit Britain.

The really weird thing about Covid is its timing - its like a metaphor made concrete signifying Trump and Brexit as a plague on their countries. And just as we'll recover from Covid we'll deal with and get over Brexit in the end.

[IMHAL]

 

Of course the potential exists.  Even within the SM, the share of trade with the EU has been declining.  It's the RoW that has been increasing fastest, and we have a trade surplus there.  Being in the SM is a drag on that increasing RoW trade.

But that hides the fact that trade has been increasing with the EU, just that the rest of the world has been catching up. Besides, the EU, as others have said are already doing trade deal with the ROW, which we would have benefitted from. The issue is, can we, with lesser clout do a better deal. That has yet to be proven. Size is power.

 

That immense fleet of HGVs we see queuing for Dover is actually a bad thing, not a good thing as everyone seems to think.  It never used to be like that, we used to manage without.  We should be asking what the hell went wrong there for this situation to get like this, not try and increase their imports even more.

This is nonsense. We import from the EU things we don't want, can't or are inefficient to produce in the UK. To a great extent, that will not change, other than we import from further afield. 

 

We've got the chance to make this work for the average person.  EU immigration will be limited, so not as much upward pressure on house prices and not as much downward pressure on salaries.

Depends on what happens next. If the economy suffers then we might get our HPC, but it will be at a cost that will not benefit the UK.

[thecrashingisles]

 

This is a myth that seems to have become accepted truth amongst remainers.  Small countries enter trade deals with large ones all the time.  The process is governed by UN treaty.  The small country does not have to sign up to anything it does not like.  The way forward is sectorial deals anyhow.

No-one is forced to do trade deals. If either party doesn't like the terms they don't do one, but it's common sense that the party with the more valuable market will concede less.

[markyh]

 

No, thats simply not true. All car manufacturers (bar one or two Japanese) are developing new platforms based on the skateboard format, shared or independent. This is no different from ICE platforms  and that has been the norm for decades. It doesn't take years to catch up with Tesla, the electrical tech is not car specific and has been developed oved a hundred years. Tesla's batteries were standard battery tech developed by outside companies.  

VW and most of the EU companies have already transformed to EV and made the investment, the idea that legacy companies will roll over and die is laughable. They will not and have not done it. Smaller companies share the development cost of a new platform. 

No legacy ICE can convert its volume sales to EV without going bust. They will ALL only sell enough BEV Annually to ensure they don’t pay global emissions fines. Which will kill them all.  You will see virtually no BEV models for sale (except Tesla) in any areas that has no emissions fines, like Africa and India. So there will be hard limits to how many BEV will be available for sale, way lower than demand. Tesla will produce more and more, and cheaper and cheaper. They will mop up all the demand. 2025 the cracks will be showing. Buy 2030 there will only be 4 car makers left, Tesla, VW and 2 others. None of the legacy USA Automakers will survive. all others will be regional brand badges like VW did to seat and Skoda. Tesla will be the biggest, with 40% global market share, but only 20% will badged Tesla, the other 40% will be Tesla tech platforms with regional brands and bodyshells (bmw and Honda) will be to Tesla what Seat and Skoda are to VW. 

[NobodyInParticular]

 

750? More than three times the number of nation states on the planet?

36 are FTAs covering 55 nations. 77 nations are covered by a wider set of agreements. But there are a lot of very small arrangements, for example, with the USA, some of which are more micro deals covering some aspect, and multiple such with a country. 

Examples include : India, on research; USA on data, AND the recent mini deal (more concerned with seafood) . There are lots of these, and most are tiny. I can't find a definitive list to verify the count, though.

•  

[IMHAL]

 

This is a myth that seems to have become accepted truth amongst remainers.  Small countries enter trade deals with large ones all the time.  The process is governed by UN treaty.  The small country does not have to sign up to anything it does not like.  The way forward is sectorial deals anyhow.

You have never been in an argument or a fight with a bigger bloke then. You give stuff up to gain stuff, the bigger bloke gives up less and you give up more. The rules of the game are quite simple. The bigger you are, the less it matters if you deal with the smaller entity, you can afford to walk away and deal with another entity that will give you better terms. So you can also walk away, but there are less of the big guys around to deal with.

Edited December 27, 2020 by IMHAL

[IMHAL]

 

This is a myth that seems to have become accepted truth amongst remainers.  Small countries enter trade deals with large ones all the time.  The process is governed by UN treaty.  The small country does not have to sign up to anything it does not like.  The way forward is sectorial deals anyhow.

Given your reasoning, Wales or Scotland would automatically be better off outside the UK then? They would not have the rest of the union to consider when making trade deals, they could make deals equal to or better than they could within the UK that benefitted them. The size and power of the UK would be of no advantage to them. There is no advantage in the union at all. Is that right?

[NobodyInParticular]

 

Of course the potential exists.  Even within the SM, the share of trade with the EU has been declining.  It's the RoW that has been increasing fastest, and we have a trade surplus there.  Being in the SM is a drag on that increasing RoW trade.

By what mechanism is the SM a drag on trade with RoW? It doesn't seem to hold Germany back. 

 

That immense fleet of HGVs we see queuing for Dover is actually a bad thing, not a good thing as everyone seems to think.  It never used to be like that, we used to manage without. 

The UK has imported a lot of raw materials over the last 100 years. 

 

We should be asking what the hell went wrong there for this situation to get like this, not try and increase their imports even more.

But that's flying in the face of how trade works. If you import something because you're better off importing cheaply than making it locally and expensively and then concentrating on higher margin products or services I don't see what the problem is. Otherwise you are effectively saying we should have sweat shops to make shoes here at a price people can afford to buy rather than importing them from a location that, because of the effects of PPP, still allows a reasonable standard of living in that country. And, in the fullness of time as trade should be mutually beneficial, we sell them an MRI machine. Can it go wrong or too far or too fast? Absolutely? Do we need to make sure people have good jobs here and be supported to get them or be retrained? Absolutely, and there has been a huge failure to do this which makes me really sad. 

 

We've got the chance to make this work for the average person. 

I don't think this is a mechanism to do this. 

 

EU immigration will be limited, so not as much upward pressure on house prices

That's mostly credit-related. In the mid 90s the population went up, prices down. Ditto 2008-10. There is a supply and demand element, particularly in geographically limited areas, but credit seems to be a stronger effect overall. 

 

and not as much downward pressure on salaries.

There's very little evidence that there was any, though, although it's inconclusive. 

[NobodyInParticular]

 

What have you got?

And please no DE or Little Englander.

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/brexit-news/westminster-news/how-will-erg-vote-on-brexit-6869024

[NobodyInParticular]

 

No legacy ICE can convert its volume sales to EV without going bust. They will ALL only sell enough BEV Annually to ensure they don’t pay global emissions fines. Which will kill them all.  You will see virtually no BEV models for sale (except Tesla) in any areas that has no emissions fines, like Africa and India. So there will be hard limits to how many BEV will be available for sale, way lower than demand. Tesla will produce more and more, and cheaper and cheaper. They will mop up all the demand. 2025 the cracks will be showing. Buy 2030 there will only be 4 car makers left, Tesla, VW and 2 others. None of the legacy USA Automakers will survive. all others will be regional brand badges like VW did to seat and Skoda. Tesla will be the biggest, with 40% global market share, but only 20% will badged Tesla, the other 40% will be Tesla tech platforms with regional brands and bodyshells (bmw and Honda) will be to Tesla what Seat and Skoda are to VW. 

How many BEV does Tesla sell in Africa? 

[OnionTerror]

 

36 are FTAs covering 55 nations. 77 nations are covered by a wider set of agreements. But there are a lot of very small arrangements, for example, with the USA, some of which are more micro deals covering some aspect, and multiple such with a country. 

Examples include : India, on research; USA on data, AND the recent mini deal (more concerned with seafood) . There are lots of these, and most are tiny. I can't find a definitive list to verify the count, though.

•  

Its crazy to think that NZ have better access into the EU for their Lamb than the UK does....but they have a mutual recognition of conformity agreement - which limits the SPS checks to 1 - 2%.

[zugzwang]

 

No legacy ICE can convert its volume sales to EV without going bust. They will ALL only sell enough BEV Annually to ensure they don’t pay global emissions fines. Which will kill them all.  You will see virtually no BEV models for sale (except Tesla) in any areas that has no emissions fines, like Africa and India. So there will be hard limits to how many BEV will be available for sale, way lower than demand. Tesla will produce more and more, and cheaper and cheaper. They will mop up all the demand. 2025 the cracks will be showing. Buy 2030 there will only be 4 car makers left, Tesla, VW and 2 others. None of the legacy USA Automakers will survive. all others will be regional brand badges like VW did to seat and Skoda. Tesla will be the biggest, with 40% global market share, but only 20% will badged Tesla, the other 40% will be Tesla tech platforms with regional brands and bodyshells (bmw and Honda) will be to Tesla what Seat and Skoda are to VW. 

Every volume auto manufacturer in the world receives either implicit or explicit support from central govt. None of them will be allowed to go bust as they transition from ICE to BEV.

The US auto industry recieved nearly $81bn in govt loans, incentives and stock purchases in 2009/10 alone.

[NobodyInParticular]

 

No legacy ICE can convert its volume sales to EV without going bust. They will ALL only sell enough BEV Annually to ensure they don’t pay global emissions fines. Which will kill them all.  You will see virtually no BEV models for sale (except Tesla) in any areas that has no emissions fines, like Africa and India. So there will be hard limits to how many BEV will be available for sale, way lower than demand. Tesla will produce more and more, and cheaper and cheaper. They will mop up all the demand. 2025 the cracks will be showing. Buy 2030 there will only be 4 car makers left, Tesla, VW and 2 others. None of the legacy USA Automakers will survive. all others will be regional brand badges like VW did to seat and Skoda. Tesla will be the biggest, with 40% global market share, but only 20% will badged Tesla, the other 40% will be Tesla tech platforms with regional brands and bodyshells (bmw and Honda) will be to Tesla what Seat and Skoda are to VW. 

Assuming by market share you mean numbers of cars rather than value, you are saying you expect Tesla to scale up production from 0.6m to 36.8m per year (assuming no growth in world production) by 2030? If we say a decade to make it simple, that's a 50% increase in output a year EVERY year. That sounds unlikely to me. 

[thehowler]

 

36 are FTAs covering 55 nations.

Truss is doing the rounds. Deal - rollover - just announced with Turkey, good news for Beko. And interesting mandatory two-year review clause on going further, expanding digital services, agri-foods etc.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-turkey/uk-and-turkey-to-sign-free-trade-deal-this-week-ft-idUKKBN2910OC?il=0

 

 

Edited December 27, 2020 by thehowler

[NobodyInParticular]

 

Its crazy to think that NZ have better access into the EU for their Lamb than the UK does....but they have a mutual recognition of conformity agreement - which limits the SPS checks to 1 - 2%.

And I believe another one for aeronautical standards, but I need to fact check my memory. 

[thehowler]

 

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/brexit-news/westminster-news/how-will-erg-vote-on-brexit-6869024

I said no Little Englander.

Or Daily Express. I rank them together on objective veracity.

Edited December 27, 2020 by thehowler

[NobodyInParticular]

 

How many BEV does Tesla sell in Africa? 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/cleantechnica.com/2020/08/06/its-happening-car-dealers-in-africa-are-starting-to-stock-more-used-evs/amp/

We do hear some very good news every now and then, such as Hyundai’s Joint Venture with Olympic Champion Haile Gebrselassie’s Marathon Motor Engineering, which has started assembling the all-electric Hyundai Ioniq in Ethiopia.

[NobodyInParticular]

 

I said no Little Englander.

The New European I wouldn't class as Little Englander - to me that would be the DE. Maybe you should provide a list of acceptable publications that meet your personal seal of approval.