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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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12 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Well we cannot leave if half the laws needed to govern the UK post Brexit haven't been passed.

Perhaps you should reserve your ire for those who have, against all common sense, insisted that the negotiations, plus agreement over the ongoing trade arrangements and all the legislation required to implement all of this (UK and EU) could be completed in two years; never mind all the practicalities of implementation.

I wouldn't call denying this reality and cheerleading the charge of the incompetent brigade serving your country well.

So you're arguing for not even bothering to escape the snares because the snares exist? Yet another reason to despise the EU and want out of it really. Once again a Remainer's reasons for remaining are based on how bad the EU is.

You keep illustrating various massive problems with the EU that need dealing with if it's to survive and not build ever-increasing resentment towards it, yet never offer a solution. Now I don't always expect people who see a problem to have a solution (people who retort with "well what do you plan to do about it then?" usually come across as idiots who don't believe a problem exists if there's no solution and paint themselves into a corner of making sure there never will be one) but you give the impression of not even wanting to try to fix them.

Edited by Riedquat

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14 hours ago, Dave Beans said:

The issue is that were going from an issue of convergence to divergence.   Say you have a Liftmaker in the UK who wants to ship into the single market.  At the moment, its not a problem.  The standards that we use are the same as the ones they work to in Germany, and our regulatory framework is the same.  If we walk away, into WTO, under Brexit + day 1, and we ship that same lift into the single market, it will be stopped at a BIP (border inspection point), potentially for testing, as it would hit a non-tariff barrier.

The EU will want to know that our equipment will match the single market's standards, and for us to prove it.  The trouble is, is that we aren't under any jurisdiction to force us to.  Under an FTA, there will be some convergence (comformity) upon agreed sectors...that's one of the main points of one.

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86400

 

 

So the person who wants the lift in the EU doesn't matter? He can just source another one to the same spec in a timely manner? When the product he wants to import today is exactly the same as the one he wanted to import yesterday? 

Of course the EU can do this. The question is how much they want to damage themselves to damage us. If you think that is a likely route then I think you are mistaken. And if it comes to some sort of economic warfare, then sobeit.

 

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16 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

So you're arguing for not even bothering to escape the snares because the snares exist? Yet another reason to despise the EU and want out of it really. Once again a Remainer's reasons for remaining are based on how bad the EU is.

You keep illustrating various massive problems with the EU that need dealing with if it's to survive and not build ever-increasing resentment towards it, yet never offer a solution. Now I don't always expect people who see a problem to have a solution (people who retort with "well what do you plan to do about it then?" usually come across as idiots who don't believe a problem exists if there's no solution and paint themselves into a corner of making sure there never will be one) but you give the impression of not even wanting to try to fix them.

Where does any of this give you further reason to despise or even relate to the EU.

We have decided to undertake a massive piece of work that will take far longer than 2 years to complete. None of this is down to the EU, it is the reality of what we need to do to get ourselves in a position to leave. We have a number of fantasists who think that if we ignore the problem it will go away, unfortunately life especially when it involves commercial/legal agreements is not like that.

The solution is obvious we complete the negotiations then work through the problem piece by piece, reviewing 40 years of legislation identifying the "must do" changes, turning these changes into the required whitepapers and taking them through the legislative process.

In parallel with this we will need to address all the practical issues. customs checks, rules of origin documentation, what to do about NI border checks etc. etc. etc.

I have no idea how long this will take, but having experience of working in both UK government and the EU commission, I do know that the idea it can be done in two years is laughable.

 

  

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4 hours ago, the gardener said:

I think they were just probably forgotten about because new laws were made to replace them, except the new laws didn't fully do so and thus technically they were still on the statute books. Nobody cared because everyone just got on with the new rules. As time passed the old laws faded into obscurity. Nobody sat down and unpicked every law ever passed in the country and hence inconsistencies exist to this day. Such is life. Not everything is neat and tidy, not all lines are straight, not everything is fully regulated for at all times, sometimes things are done on-the-fly as and when necessary. Life is uncertain and often chaotic. I suspect you find this troubling. Perhaps a touch of Asperger's afflicts you?

Oh, I quite understand thank you very much

I just found billybong's conflation of medieval laws falling out of use as the way forward in unravelling 40+ years of domestic legislation childlike in it's naivety. Nothing to do with aspergers on my part, just an understanding of why  ridiculous solutions to complex problems will not work.

Edited by knock out johnny

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6 minutes ago, ****-eyed octopus said:

So the person who wants the lift in the EU doesn't matter? He can just source another one to the same spec in a timely manner? When the product he wants to import today is exactly the same as the one he wanted to import yesterday? 

Of course the EU can do this. The question is how much they want to damage themselves to damage us. If you think that is a likely route then I think you are mistaken. And if it comes to some sort of economic warfare, then sobeit.

 

The point is who knows it is the same as it was yesterday, complex equipment is updated continually and it is up to the exporter to prove it still complies with all the relevant standards/regulations. Failing to do this for a safety critical device such as a lift (although almost everything  is covered by safety standards today) could land the relevant staff and company directors purchasing the equipment with a criminal conviction.

Of course the EU could decide to tear up 50 years of their own standards and regulations, to save the UK having to do the same paperwork as the +130 other third countries who trade with the EU; but somehow I doubt that's going to happen.

How do you turn expecting the UK, once it has left the EU, to trade like any other outside country into economic warfare.

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5 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The point is who knows it is the same as it was yesterday, complex equipment is updated continually and it is up to the exporter to prove it still complies with all the relevant standards/regulations. Failing to do this for a safety critical device such as a lift (although almost everything  is covered by safety standards today) could land the relevant staff and company directors purchasing the equipment with a criminal conviction.

Of course the EU could decide to tear up 50 years of their own standards and regulations, to save the UK having to do the same paperwork as the +130 other third countries who trade with the EU; but somehow I doubt that's going to happen.

How do you turn expecting the UK, once it has left the EU, to trade like any other outside country into economic warfare.

Continually? What, a daily basis? Some sort of periodic check? Perhaps you could enlighten me.

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28 minutes ago, ****-eyed octopus said:

Continually? What, a daily basis? Some sort of periodic check? Perhaps you could enlighten me.

Unsurprisingly, I don't have particular experience of lifts. However, to give an example of something I know about .I was responsible for procuring and accepting large amounts of PCs for government. 

As they were built outside of the EU we had to check they met EU standards, and recheck every time they were updated. As changing any internal component meant they had been updated this occurred on about a monthly basis. With PCs we could get round this by buying in batches of around a 1,000, testing 1 and having the correct documentation to prove the others were of exactly the same specification.

Not a huge problem if you are buying 1,000s and test 1, but for lifts I imagine everyone would have to be individually tested and documented. This can be done by either the supplier or purchaser but either way an unwelcome additional delay and cost.        

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10 minutes ago, kzb said:

Exactly, Sir Ivan said much the same on TV the other week.

If the worst comes to the worst, is it beyond them to come up with some similar arrangements for the UK?

Nobody is arguing that any of this is impossible, just that it will take as long as it takes.

 

  

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4 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Where does any of this give you further reason to despise or even relate to the EU.

We have decided to undertake a massive piece of work that will take far longer than 2 years to complete. None of this is down to the EU

Oh come on, I know you're not that ignorant about where the two year timetable comes from.

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4 hours ago, kzb said:

The lift would be built in China.  So how does that work?

Presumably China is in a horrible place due to being effectively bound by EU regulations through and through but having no say due to not being a member, all because it trades with the EU.

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1 hour ago, Riedquat said:

Presumably China is in a horrible place due to being effectively bound by EU regulations through and through but having no say due to not being a member, all because it trades with the EU.

Where I work most hi-tech stuff we buy seems to come from USA.  Domestically, everything is made in China or another Asian country.

We've all seen on TV the massive Chinese container ships unloading thousands of containers at UK ports.

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5 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The point is who knows it is the same as it was yesterday, complex equipment is updated continually and it is up to the exporter to prove it still complies with all the relevant standards/regulations. Failing to do this for a safety critical device such as a lift (although almost everything  is covered by safety standards today) could land the relevant staff and company directors purchasing the equipment with a criminal conviction.

Of course the EU could decide to tear up 50 years of their own standards and regulations, to save the UK having to do the same paperwork as the +130 other third countries who trade with the EU; but somehow I doubt that's going to happen.

How do you turn expecting the UK, once it has left the EU, to trade like any other outside country into economic warfare.

Well, many on here... and across the UK (including Farage et al) seem to have the opinion that Brexit is as easy as you or I ending a gym membership. There's 40+ years of agreements, laws, charters, standards, etc.. to re-interpret.

All of that is going to cost a lot of money... and time.

What worries me is that this UK.gov will wayside the running of the country in lieu of setting themselves & their pals up with the bigger, sexier contracts & trade agreements.

I think the truth is that nobody can put a limitation or even stab at a high level cost exercise against this whole process. It's unprecedented and leaves the UK open to attack on all fronts economically and politically. Quite dangerous actually. We have little in the way of friends. I don't buy the commonwealth b0ll0x touted by some. We're going to suffer greatly for during the long divorce process as citizens.  Anybody cash rich or connected is going to make a killing with all the bumps and stagnation this is going to cause. We certainly can't improve on any deals we currently have with our biggest trading partner across the channel.

Not that it's all bad. Solicitors are going to clean up. Wish I was in commercial & contact law. Plus we have shown the Chinese how a real country can manipulate its currency and keep it's people drunk on hyperbolic politics.

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As easy as ending a gym membership ? 

Everyone knows it will be difficult. The difference is many of us think it's worth it. 

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28 minutes ago, ccc said:

As easy as ending a gym membership ? 

Everyone knows it will be difficult. The difference is many of us think it's worth it. 

Genuinely interested....at any cost?

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4 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

Genuinely interested....at any cost?

Speaking personally, of course not. My judgement is that it'll make little economic difference one way or another.

Nobody knows, whatever they might say. I have listened to arguments on both sides & am not persuaded that the risks of leaving are great. That's why I voted to leave, & nothing since has changed my point of view. The only certainty is that the predicted financial Armageddon has not occurred. Whether it does or not in the future, & if it does how much would be attributable to our leaving the EU, is another matter.

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6 minutes ago, ****-eyed octopus said:

Speaking personally, of course not. My judgement is that it'll make little economic difference one way or another.

Nobody knows, whatever they might say. I have listened to arguments on both sides & am not persuaded that the risks of leaving are great. That's why I voted to leave, & nothing since has changed my point of view. The only certainty is that the predicted financial Armageddon has not occurred. Whether it does or not in the future, & if it does how much would be attributable to our leaving the EU, is another matter.

In what sort of situation would we have to get into to change your mind?

I thought that the Osbourne emergency budget was cobblers..

Edited by Dave Beans

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7 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

In what sort of situation would we have to get into to change your mind?

I thought that the Osbourne emergency budget was cobblers..

Food bank usage doubling every month for a year? Unemployment rising 20% a month for a year? Deficit doubling every month for a year? Food riots? I'd take a view then.

 

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3 hours ago, Riedquat said:

Presumably China is in a horrible place due to being effectively bound by EU regulations through and through but having no say due to not being a member, all because it trades with the EU.

Yes China don't have a seat at the top table and are at the back of the queue too.

Why can't Remoaners see the simple fact that a company wishing to trade with another party simply supplies the other party with the goods that it demands, at a price that is mutually acceptable. Oh oh but how does the other party know that the goods are of sufficient quality etc now that the UK isn't in the EU? Oh woe is me!

Well, one of a few scenarios will occur, I) the EU will see that it is in their best interest to extend the current arrangements to the UK even though it's out of the EU - perhaps separate the single market from the EU

ii) a new special type of arrangement is made e.g a bespoke FTA between UK-EU that minimises disruption but maybe saves face for the EU let's it pretend its not disintegrating for a while longer

iii) no deal and the UK and EU have to fill a few more forms on order to trade. Some additional inspections will need to be done - like we currently do for 56% of our trade - quelle horreur!

 

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On the lift front there is another side to the argument - we probably import more lifts from EU than other way round. There are EU and international standards I believe - manufacturers will be looking at both of those. If it came to a trade spat then like most other things with a huge trade deficit with the EU it is the EU that would have more to lose, Uk manufacturers could concentrate on the home market and filling the void if it came to blows - in many areas it might be the very thing that UK needs to get manufacturing going again with a lot more local demand to fill the void. A resurgent manufacturing sector could then look to trade more abroad with a healthier home market.

 

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3 hours ago, Dave Beans said:

Genuinely interested....at any cost?

Yep. We are unlikely to silde off the edge of the planet. 

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  • 356 The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


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