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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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Joking aside. The timescales now touted for Brexit to be considered a success seem rather far fetched ie 50 years. If Brexit turns into a systemic drag on the economy, I cannot see average Jo being able to survive and by extention our current trajectory will have to change. I expect we will see the UK moving gradually back into the sphere of the EU, especially so under a change of government.

What is your view on how Brexit will evolve if it sees strong structural headwinds? Do you think the pendulum has swung too far re sovereignt vs wealth? Do you think we will concede that Brexit has not worked and abandon it as a failed experiment if it runs into trouble or do you think we will continue to blame 'the other'? Have you considered what a plan B might look like?

 

50 years is ridiculous either way, forecasting 50 weeks in advance is little more than guesswork. There are so many variables and actions leading to reactions etc which cannot be fully calculated in advance. Brexit will mean different things to different people, so I've no idea how to start going about comprising a blanket Brexit success matrix. Do our MPs become demonstrably more accountable would be one for me. A reduction in the balance of trade with the EU would be another, or at the very least, it doesn't increase further. People buying more British and this being tangibly accountable (and before the typical little englander/racist remarks pile in, the more people buy British, the better our economy, which generates more wealth to pay for services, rather than us just borrowing more and more from the future and creates better job prospects for the younger generations). So a better balanced economy away from services.

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I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

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What about the UN rule that says it is illegal to use sovereignty as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations?  The EU are doing this on the NI question and also on fishing.  They are acting counter to UN treaty.

Not sure you quite understand what "sovereignty" means. Try reading a top layer's opnion:

https://davidallengreen.com/2020/12/sovereignty-and-sovereignty/

 

 

What about Article 50, which says the EU shall negotiate an agreement with the leaving state?

And they already did, it's called the Withdrawal Agreement, it was negotiated and was signed in good faith by the UK and the EU.

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OK, but that agreement has to take account of the future relationship.  It says that as well.  That future relationship was stated to be a free trade deal.  If they don't deliver it, they are in breach of that agreement.

No one is in any breach of an agreement. They have offered us an FTA on a potential future FTA, we have offered them a potential future FTA. There is no requirement to agree. Just to negotiate.....4 1/2 years worth of negotiating. Is that not enough for you?

Thankfully, it was 'the easiest deal is history, otherwise we'd be looking at intergenerational negotiations.

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We don't always source it from where we like because we are in the single market.

The EU has been very bad for manufacturing and fishing.  The EU has given grants to relocate UK manufacturing elsewhere in Europe and the CFP has been catastrophic for our fishing industry.  Nationalised EU railways compete against UK companies to provide services in the UK and use the profits to subsidise their own rail service. 

There has been no level playing field by any stretch of the imagination.

Hard to believe that nearly 5 years into this you are still repeating all these Brexiteer tropes.

The EU relocation grants can be applied for and used by any poorer area, Wales has had plenty. 

We clearly had more fish than we wanted otherwise we wouldn't have sold off most of our fishing quotas to foreign boats - 23% to just one Dutch trawler (which nicely demonstrate just how trivial the fishing issue is). 

UK utility/transport firms also sell their services abroad, what's wrong with that? 

 

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Surprise surprise. I expect all Brexiteers to agree with a one sides unbalanced view castegating the EU. What about a balanced view for a change. What are we losing by leaving? Seldom taken into account by the one sided ledger Brexit accountants.

No different to remainers "Everything EU good, everything UK bad" diatribe. 

Perhaps it is just best we accept that Brexiteers and Remainers will forever remain at complete loggerheads.

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50 years is ridiculous either way, forecasting 50 weeks in advance is little more than guesswork. There are so many variables and actions leading to reactions etc which cannot be fully calculated in advance. Brexit will mean different things to different people, so I've no idea how to start going about comprising a blanket Brexit success matrix. Do our MPs become demonstrably more accountable would be one for me. A reduction in the balance of trade with the EU would be another, or at the very least, it doesn't increase further. People buying more British and this being tangibly accountable (and before the typical little englander/racist remarks pile in, the more people buy British, the better our economy, which generates more wealth to pay for services, rather than us just borrowing more and more from the future and creates better job prospects for the younger generations). So a better balanced economy away from services.

I'll help you.

Here is a simple metric. If the UK vote to change governements based on a manifesto to move the pendulum towards a closer integration with Europe. I would consider that to be a partial (being generous) failure of the current Brexit strategy.

I don't buy into reductions of trade imbalance because they don't really mean much, other than we'd prefer to, or it more convenient/economical to buy from somewhere else rather than make it ourselves....coz we are too busy doing things we are better at. Besides, a more balanced economy is an internal matter and a policy/strategy driven thing....nowt much to do with the EU. ie they did not prevent us from balancing our economy....it's a red herring.

MP's being more accountable? Sure......deliver a successful Brexit or get off the potty and let some one deliver a successful and prosperous UK.

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No different to remainers "Everything EU good, everything UK bad" diatribe. 

Perhaps it is just best we accept that Brexiteers and Remainers will forever remain at complete loggerheads.

I doubt it. We will soon see what Brexit is all about, the sunny uplands beckon....it's delivery time!

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To be fair to everyone I do have to say part of the problem is the media is not capable of balanced debate so people have no information other than sound bite level.  

What's worse is that this applies to most of the politicians. If you read parliamentary debates when matters of great importance were discussed in previous eras, it's staggering how much higher the level of erudition was.

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My point is that we have a vast amount of legislation, much of it well thought out and well intended, but it is too often ignored and not enforced.  If there is a contravention, the penalties are minimal.  So i don't really seen much worth or merit in the laws.  In my view, it would be preferable to have a simpler more limited set of laws that are enforced rather than the current situation where the laws are useless as they are not enforced.

Some companies I have worked for have excellent conditions and policies, but in the last 15 years or so, the standards have fallen a lot, as the race for the bottom accelerates.

From my limited understanding of Brexit, I can't see things improving.

Then the answer is better enforcement of employment rules, not diluting them, surely? If we worked on the principle of not enforcing laws then repealing them it'd be like Somalia. 

 

Typical remoaner response. It has nothing to do with British exceptionalism nor an unwillingness to buy from johney foreigner (where are we going to get the raw materials from numbnuts?) We can keep buying from the EU as long as it makes economic sense. If it doesn't, there are alternatives out there, including manufacturing ourselves. 

But then we need the raw materials and the decade it two to build up the manufacturing base. Your arguments fail to comprehend the interconnectedness and costs involved. 

 

 

We don't need raw materials when we've got sovereignty. 

+1

 

You are having a laugh yes ?

Also, and this question is getting tedious to ask, you do realise we're the ones who are Brexiting ?

 

 

Such childishness is probably more the reason Brexiteers (sorry, Brexshiteers 😘) just stop engaging on such threads, leaving you all to your echo chamber.

The problem is the failure of too many Brexiters to understand how modern economies work. It makes it hard work so people give up and poke fun. 

 

Possible BoJo has bowed to the inevitable and conceded. Howler to get his deal?

Brexit trade deal possible within days after Johnson concession, says EU

Barnier says PM’s acceptance of need for ‘evolution clause’ as standards diverge has unlocked talks

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/14/brexit-trade-deal-possible-within-days-after-johnson-concession-says-eu

Wow, the EU finally blinked by letting the UK make concessions or something. 

 

UK govt will tell the Scots to wait and see how it goes under new terms.

How can the UK government, with a straight face, say that it's allowed to unilaterally leave a union, but Scotland cannot? I think Westminster will find that Scotland can do this unilaterally. 

 

Can's kicked for years with a FTA.

Unlikely. 

 

What about the UN rule that says it is illegal to use sovereignty as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations?  The EU are doing this on the NI question and also on fishing.  They are acting counter to UN treaty.

Explain how this is the case. 

 

What about Article 50, which says the EU shall negotiate an agreement with the leaving state?

It is doing so. What is your point? 

 

We are graciously offering a FTA

What? Are you serious?!!!?!!? 

 

 

which allows their massive and often unfair UK imports to continue tariff-free. 

Sorry, could you try using English? 

 

 

Any normal person would be asking how it ever got like this, with huge numbers of lorries bringing stuff in, that we could just as well produce ourselves.  There was no level playing field that is for sure.

Because it's cheaper to import it. Comparative advantage. Try looking it up. 

 

That didn't happen when the cost of EU goods went up 15% overnight in 2016, we just paid the extra and took the inflation hit. 

The reality is advanced goods are not that price sensitive, if the cost of a product/component you want goes up usually you just pay the extra, rather than invest billions in creating an indigenous supply.     

 

 

We don't always source it from where we like because we are in the single market.

The EU has been very bad for manufacturing and fishing.  The EU has given grants to relocate UK manufacturing elsewhere in Europe and the CFP has been catastrophic for our fishing industry.  Nationalised EU railways compete against UK companies to provide services in the UK and use the profits to subsidise their own rail service. 

There has been no level playing field by any stretch of the imagination.

+1

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What's worse is that this applies to most of the politicians. If you read parliamentary debates when matters of great importance were discussed in previous eras, it's staggering how much higher the level of erudition was.

Hansard isn't verbatim. 

 

No different to remainers "Everything EU good, everything UK bad" diatribe. 

If you think remainers are saying this either you need better comprehension skills or the issue is you. 

 

Hard to believe that nearly 5 years into this you are still repeating all these Brexiteer tropes.

The EU relocation grants can be applied for and used by any poorer area, Wales has had plenty. 

We clearly had more fish than we wanted otherwise we wouldn't have sold off most of our fishing quotas to foreign boats - 23% to just one Dutch trawler (which nicely demonstrate just how trivial the fishing issue is). 

UK utility/transport firms also sell their services abroad, what's wrong with that? 

 

The UK fishing industry (I keep posting this...) was in decline BEFORE the CFP kicked in because it was losing access to fishing grounds, primarily Iceland, where the fish British people wanted to eat, mostly cod, was to be found. The CFP, from 1980 onwards, as Iceland and Norway joined in, allowed UK boats to again catch cod. It also allowed a handy cash bonus by selling quotas for fish we don't want to those in the EU and easier exports of herring, etc. Without the EU, the UK fishing industry would just be crab boats. 

 

  

Not sure you quite understand what "sovereignty" means. Try reading a top layer's opnion:

https://davidallengreen.com/2020/12/sovereignty-and-sovereignty/

 

And they already did, it's called the Withdrawal Agreement, it was negotiated and was signed in good faith by the UK and the EU.

+1

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I'll help you.

Here is a simple metric. If the UK vote to change governements based on a manifesto to move the pendulum towards a closer integration with Europe. I would consider that to be a partial (being generous) failure of the current Brexit strategy.

I don't buy into reductions of trade imbalance because they don't really mean much, other than we'd prefer to, or it more convenient/economical to buy from somewhere else rather than make it ourselves....coz we are too busy doing things we are better at. Besides, a more balanced economy is an internal matter and a policy/strategy driven thing....nowt much to do with the EU. ie they did not prevent us from balancing our economy....it's a red herring.

MP's being more accountable? Sure......deliver a successful Brexit or get off the potty and let some one deliver a successful and prosperous UK.

Europe's going to change over the next 50 years too. 

They may well sort out Brussels waste and many of the other things the English complained about. 

And have their own financial crisis at some point. 

But as time goes on and the UK diverges more, it may all seem in retrospect inevitable. 

And grandchildren won't even understand the concept of remainer or that there were people actually opposed to independence. 

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Then the answer is better enforcement of employment rules, not diluting them, surely? If we worked on the principle of not enforcing laws then repealing them it'd be like Somalia.

Yes, in an ideal world, but enforcement doesn't happen.  I see little point in having laws on the statute books that aren't enforced.  I would rather a smaller tighter regime requiring complete adherence.  At the moment the situation is anarchic, by which I mean no overall effective legislation. There is a role for a supra-national organization to set the framework and member states to implement.  Having never been to Somalia, I can't comment on the situation there.

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If you would like to give  a balanced view on this. ie where are we restricted? for what reason. That would be helpful. Thanks. Oh, don't forget the positive aspects in your balanced view.

 I know you don't need this help after all this time on this thread.  However for anyone else listening the single market places barriers to trade from outside.  It's protectionist.

For balance, I will say I like a bit of protectionism.  Some protectionism from China would've been desirable in my book.  But protectionism has been a dirty word for some decades now; I still find it strange that a person can think protectionism is a dirty word, but then support the EU single market and customs union.

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We have been offered a free trade deal, the most wide ranging and deepest ever offered any non member. it's not the EU's fault that it doesn't align with the fantasy Brexit promised to win the referendum.  

But only in exchange for sovereignty, which is against that UN Treaty.

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Not sure you quite understand what "sovereignty" means. Try reading a top layer's opnion:

https://davidallengreen.com/2020/12/sovereignty-and-sovereignty/

I understand the point about international agreements.  But where the ultimate arbiter of any dispute is the European Court, that means we don't have sovereignty.   The ultimate arbiter of disputes about fishing in UK territorial waters would be a UK court, not a European one.  A lot of people on here do get confused about the word sovereignty, confusing it with power or world influence, I've explained the difference on here several times previously.

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No one is in any breach of an agreement. They have offered us an FTA on a potential future FTA, we have offered them a potential future FTA. There is no requirement to agree. Just to negotiate.....4 1/2 years worth of negotiating. Is that not enough for you?

Thankfully, it was 'the easiest deal is history, otherwise we'd be looking at intergenerational negotiations.

If you negotiate an "agreement", surely it is a basic requirement that it is "agreed"?

Yes it's been a farce, most of those 4 1/2 years have been remainers managing the problem away.

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