Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

 

The British people were bequeathed a wealth of infrastructure and knowedge paid for by the blood and sweat of our ancestors. This gives us the privilige of a higher standard of living. I don't feel that giving it away or impoverishing ourselves in the interests of 'fairness' is a good idea. Instead we should attempt to increase the wealth of our little island so that future generations are even better off.

The rest of the world can look after themselves.

Have you been to any other countries recently? Most of us (British folk) might just recognise a 1st world UK if we squint hard into the rear view mirror of 20 years ago but not today.

Running up to 2016, much of the immigration fuel was provided as a result of following/allowing missguided US foriegn policy, which actively undermined and created failed states from previously functioning countries around Europes boarders, leading to huge spikes of displaced hungry people.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

 

Have you been to any other countries recently? Most of us (British folk) might just recognise a 1st world UK if we squint hard into the rear view mirror of 20 years ago but not today.

Running up to 2016, much of the immigration fuel was provided as a result of following/allowing missguided US foriegn policy, which actively undermined and created failed states from previously functioning countries around Europes boarders, leading to huge spikes of displaced hungry people.

When I was a kid places like Spain, Portugal and Greece were sunny and nice, but a little bit behind the UK in terms of progress and investment.

Now you wouldn’t recognise that old image. But the the UK seems to have slipped back.

Edited December 2, 2020 by Mikhail Liebenstein

[Confusion of VIs]

 

A bit like The Vow in 2014 you mean?

No, that was just political rhetoric. In the event of a vote for independence the UK would have to make a bankable offer to have any hope of heading off independence. The alternative is probably an acrimonious break up with Scotland declining to accept any part of the BoE debt and closing the Trident base.      

[NobodyInParticular]

 

Not mentioned is all those Lords from Scotland in the house of Lords.  

They will fight tooth and nail to keep themselves i the union. 

 

 

If the Scots take independence, good luck to them. 

But I doubt the Lords will go quietly. It'll be fingers down the blackboard, with the English doing the running for the Scots, while the Scots pretend (if necessary ). 

You seem to be under the misapprehension that Scotland needs Westminster's approval. 

 

Not sure the Scots will win a referendum. Looks to me like a classic quebec ploy, to get more independence while staying inside the union. 

Er, no. The SNP wants actual independence. 

 

I think the word is oligarchy. 6 families!

Which has nothing to do with what is caught and what is sold. A red herring. 

 

The Scots are quite right to suspect the Tories of wanting to erode (the few remaining ) worker's rights, get rid of laws governing predatory corporate behaviour, allow monopoly gouging etc etc. 

But the big problem the Scots have is they are not solvent. 

It's far from clear that this is true as GERS has methodological flaws, including Scotland nominally paying interest on debt it did not incur. 

 

They need English subsidies, every man woman and child or else it's back to porridge and salt. 

That's the problem.

Sentiment is great, but I've had porridge and salt (and tatties and neaps) and I'd be very reluctant to vote for having it every day.

 

 

The eu model is :

1. Get down the British by a coalition of the losers. (Yes, it's changed but that was it originally and the sentiment did linger)

2. Form a block and you can't be pushed around. 

3. Compromise. Look after the workers. Work together. Excellence. 

the British model was: 

A. Slap it on and botch it. (Ragged trousered philanthropists)

B Cheap labour. (No rights). 

C. Class system. 

the Tories are now reverting to type. 

but Europe has its own problems. It's got a Muslim underclass that isn't included. It's got a gilded class that's living high on the hog at everyone's expense. It's got several countries being gradually forced into bankruptcy by its (german export subsidising) architecture. And it's got no army (for moving on to stage 4. Exploiting everyone else). 

meanwhile, the tsunami of declining resources, global scramble over what's left, and catastrophic climate change is coming over the horizon... 

Way to miss the point as I was only talking about GDPR. But then most of your post was the standard ill-researched and inaccurate anti EU nonsense. 

[NobodyInParticular]

 

No, that was just political rhetoric. In the event of a vote for independence the UK would have to make a bankable offer to have any hope of heading off independence. The alternative is probably an acrimonious break up with Scotland declining to accept any part of the BoE debt and closing the Trident base.      

Indeed, none of the BoE debt falls on Scotland, despite GERS assigning Scotland a proportion of the interest bill. 

If you look at the deficit under GERS, the deficit in Scotland and the UK as a whole was pretty much the same until 2009/10, and has diverged ever since. Only about 0.5% is due to reduction in oil revenues. The question is how much of the rest is really a higher deficit and how much is due to GERS. A number of economists have suggested that the real Scottish deficit is probably closer to 1% greater than that of the UK. The UK's projected deficit in 2024 is 5%. However, some of that represents Brexit, and some of it chronic under investment as it is higher than EU comparators. 

Deficits, if there is GDP growth, can change rapidly. An EFTA Scotland with decent access to European and UK markets might do well, but there would be a lot of uncertainty around what the relationship would be. Ireland is going to pick up quite a bit more financial business in the meantime, as well as continental Europe as English skills are good there and on the continent. 

But... Lots of uncertainty. 

[NobodyInParticular]

From the Grauniad

 

Nervy EU states wary of Brexit concessions by Michel Barnier

Bloc’s chief negotiator is told to provide full sight of any deal with UK before it is agreed

[winkie]

The real reason for brexit has very little to do with fish or immigration, red herrings....why don't those who know, in the know, those who will benefit the most  spell out the real reasons why brexit is good for them, and will be clear about why will not be beneficial for others?

[rollover]

 

From the Grauniad

 

Nervy EU states wary of Brexit concessions by Michel Barnier

Bloc’s chief negotiator is told to provide full sight of any deal with UK before it is agreed

 The Brexit negotiation is taking way too long now.

France will not accept Brexit deal if not in long term interests

French President Emmanuel Macron said on Tuesday that "France will not accept a Brexit deal that does not respect our long term interests." Macron told a televised news conference with Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo.

De Croo said the European Union and Britain were in "the last minutes of a football game" when it came to discussions over Brexit, adding that he considered it important to reach a deal but not at any cost.

[thehowler]

 

No, that was just political rhetoric. In the event of a vote for independence the UK would have to make a bankable offer to have any hope of heading off independence. The alternative is probably an acrimonious break up with Scotland declining to accept any part of the BoE debt and closing the Trident base.      

Do you not think they'll have to yoke themselves into a currency union? Imagine BoE will then insist they pay their share of ongoing interest on the historic debt, at least.

If they go it alone with sterling they lose BoE as lender of last resort.

And the SNP are not thrifty.

[Riedquat]

 

When I was a kid places like Spain, Portugal and Greece were sunny and nice, but a little bit behind the UK in terms of progress and investment.

Now you wouldn’t recognise that old image. But the the UK seems to have slipped back.

Looking at what other countries have who are "ahead" in development reinforces my views that the future is a depressing place if we want to "catch up."

[NobodyInParticular]

 

 The Brexit negotiation is taking way too long now.

France will not accept Brexit deal if not in long term interests

French President Emmanuel Macron said on Tuesday that "France will not accept a Brexit deal that does not respect our long term interests." Macron told a televised news conference with Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo.

De Croo said the European Union and Britain were in "the last minutes of a football game" when it came to discussions over Brexit, adding that he considered it important to reach a deal but not at any cost.

How dare French politicians have the welfare of France rather than the UK at the top of their priority list! 

 

Do you not think they'll have to yoke themselves into a currency union? Imagine BoE will then insist they pay their share of ongoing interest on the historic debt, at least.

There's no legal mechanism to require this, though. 

 

And the SNP are not thrifty.

Spending per capita on a like-for-like basis is pretty much the same as the rest of the UK, e.g. taking into account socio-economic factors and population density. 

[slawek]

 

No I think you're wrong. 

Scratch the British and you find they love curry, love spain and like seeing people coming  from afar. 

But they don't want unlimited immigration. It causes problems. 

But they are really fed up with being ground down to minimum wage labour, while parasites drink champagne.  And foreigners get hired for top jobs like doctors and nurses because the government doesn't want them trained. 

They've had 10 years of austerity and they've had enough. The parasites are still drinking champagne and calling them xenophobic. 

It's a really slow scale revolution. They've had enough. 

You are in denial. The xenophobic and hatred of others is well documented in the UK. I am not saying that the UK is much worse than other countries but you can't say that doesn't exist and it wasn't a factor for some to vote for Brexit, especially when it was openly exploited by Farage.

Just a quick google search 

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-36633388

https://irr.org.uk/article/post-brexit-racism/

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1369183X.2018.1451308

I listed it as one of the reason for anti-immigration views among people in the UK, mostly in England. I agree that blaming immigration for economic hardship was also a reason, albeit this was mostly a misplaced blame.    

[Riedquat]

 

How dare French politicians have the welfare of France rather than the UK at the top of their priority list!

And yet they're still in an organisation where they can't always prioritise France.

Anyway it still doesn't change the fundamental problem with the EU that the only reason it can't be seen to have a good deal with the UK is because that would call in to question the entire point of being in the EU. And when your interests can only be served by being negative towards others (because you don't truly have much positive to add) then it's little wonder the less dogmatic parts of the population start looking at you with contempt.

[thehowler]

 

How dare French politicians have the welfare of France rather than the UK at the top of their priority list! 

There's no legal mechanism to require this, though. 

Spending per capita on a like-for-like basis is pretty much the same as the rest of the UK, e.g. taking into account socio-economic factors and population density. 

Per head it looks like Scotland is quite a bit more generous than England...

from BBC, ref only...

Last year, Northern Ireland spent the most per head, at £11,590, followed by:

• Scotland at £11,247
• Wales at £10,656
• England at £9,296

For the whole of the UK, spending per head was £9,584.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-38077948

 

 

Edited December 2, 2020 by thehowler

[slawek]

 

Slawek where are you from? 

How is that relevant?  You should focus on facts. 

It is funny that you are trying to defend that there is no racism/xenophobia in the UK and then asking a question which can be considered as a racist microaggression by some. 

[thehowler]

Looks like Biden is sticking with the localist, protectionist agenda...America first.

So much for all the hot air around a trade deal hanging on the Ireland situation.

All those wasted words.

But in which stormproof port will old Albion park her plucky frigate?

For ref only to discussion...

Biden told the New York Times: “I want to make sure we’re going to fight like hell by investing in America first.” He named energy, biotech, advanced materials and artificial intelligence as areas ripe for large-scale government investment in research.

The remarks underline the extent to which leading Democrats have retreated from a wholesale embrace of globalisation, and insist US foreign policy must give greater priority to America’s domestic interests.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/02/uk-hopes-of-early-us-trade-deal-dashed-by-biden-warning

 

 

Edited December 2, 2020 by thehowler

[debtlessmanc]

 

 The Brexit negotiation is taking way too long now.

France will not accept Brexit deal if not in long term interests

French President Emmanuel Macron said on Tuesday that "France will not accept a Brexit deal that does not respect our long term interests." Macron told a televised news conference with Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo.

De Croo said the European Union and Britain were in "the last minutes of a football game" when it came to discussions over Brexit, adding that he considered it important to reach a deal but not at any cost.

Macron is facing so many problems, you could write a book on it, but yes the final straw for the average french person would be les Rosbif escaping relatively unscathed. Read the franch press, huge problems with illegal migration, shanty towns in paris being knocked down, springing up in the Place de la republique only to be dispersed by riot police.

Islamic extremist beheading Teachers, there has also been a speight of medieval churches being torched by migrants being threatened with deportation.

Then the internal problems, very minor attempts to reform pensions causing huge protests and, indirectly, the Gilet Jaunes. growing defecit, tourist trade decimated.

Quite obvious what his latest scam is, be beastly to the British, suck up to Joe Biden as the new face of the EU in america and try to get the rest of the EU to pay for the french nuclear deterrent.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/10/emmanuel-macron-brexit-nuclear-britain-president-france

I have a very worrying suspicions that Le Pen may actually win the next election and that has everyone scared.

[Bruce Banner]

 

Macron is facing so many problems, you could write a book on it, but yes the final straw for the average french person would be les Rosbif escaping relatively unscathed. Read the franch press, huge problems with illegal migration, shanty towns in paris being knocked down, springing up in the Place de la republique only to be dispersed by riot police.

Islamic extremist beheading Teachers, there has also been a speight of medieval churches being torched by migrants being threatened with deportation.

Then the internal problems, very minor attempts to reform pensions causing huge protests and, indirectly, the Gilet Jaunes. growing defecit, tourist trade decimated.

Quite obvious what his latest scam is, be beastly to the British, suck up to Joe Biden as the new face of the EU in america and try to get the rest of the EU to pay for the french nuclear deterrent.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/10/emmanuel-macron-brexit-nuclear-britain-president-france

I have a very worrying suspicions that Le Pen may actually win the next election and that has everyone scared.

Except, perhaps, the majority of the French electorate. It's been on the cards for years.

[dugsbody]

 

How is that relevant?  You should focus on facts. 

It is funny that you are trying to defend that there is no racism/xenophobia in the UK and then asking a question which can be considered as a racist microaggression by some. 

Your name sounds funny. Are you sure you don't work in a sandwich shop near @14stFlyer and his loved ones?

Edited December 2, 2020 by dugsbody

[dugsbody]

 

And yet they're still in an organisation where they can't always prioritise France.

Anyway it still doesn't change the fundamental problem with the EU that the only reason it can't be seen to have a good deal with the UK is because that would call in to question the entire point of being in the EU. And when your interests can only be served by being negative towards others (because you don't truly have much positive to add) then it's little wonder the less dogmatic parts of the population start looking at you with contempt.

Imagine the USA is a powerful nation formed of 50 individual states. Imagine that it is the truth that working together in one union means the whole is greater than the sum of the parts such that everyone is better off when they all stick together. 

Now imagine that there is one very rich state which given continued access to the resources and markets of the rest but without sharing the responsibilities of the rest would be better off. It is relatively easy to imagine this would make sense to some selfish people who won't look at the longer term consequences to believe they should be separate from the whole.

But now return to my first point. Imagine if other states saw this one being better off and thought, well, we're the next best off, we could probably also do better. And then repeat this process until the whole thing collapses and everyone resorts back to being just individual states. Suddenly the first point ceases to apply, the whole is no longer than the sum of the parts and the lose of the whole causes all of them to be worse off that they were. 

To me, if I were left in one of the remaining 49 states after the rich state had broken off, I'd want to make sure that we showed clearly that staying together is better so that others who are short sighted don't get sucked into the selfish thinking.

You just can't seem to get your head around this story even though it has been told to you on this thread for years. You refuse to understand it.

Edited December 2, 2020 by dugsbody

[Drat]

 

Imagine the USA is a powerful nation formed of 50 individual states. Imagine that it is the truth that working together in one union means the whole is greater than the sum of the parts such that everyone is better off when they all stick together. 

Now imagine that there is one very rich state which given continued access to the resources and markets of the rest but without sharing the responsibilities of the rest would be better off. It is relatively easy to imagine this would make sense to some selfish people who won't look at the longer term consequences to believe they should be separate from the whole.

But now return to my first point. Imagine if other states saw this one being better off and thought, well, we're the next best off, we could probably also do better. And then repeat this process until the whole thing collapses and everyone resorts back to being just individual states. Suddenly the first point ceases to apply, the whole is no longer than the sum of the parts and the lose of the whole causes all of them to be worse off that they were. 

To me, if I were left in one of the remaining 49 states after the rich state had broken off, I'd want to make sure that we showed clearly that staying together is better so that others who are short sighted don't get sucked into the selfish thinking.

You just can't seem to get your head around this story even though it has been told to you on this thread for years. You refuse to understand it.

If being part of a bigger union has no benefits above free trade, why not just have a free trade and no union?

If being part of a bigger union has additional benefits above those from free trade, why not allow free trade with an external state, as then all member states get the benefits of free trade with each other, free trade with the external state AND the additional benefits within their union.

Please note I did not vote for Brexit and think it is a bad idea, however I think the fact the EU is reluctant to have free trade with an ex-state who's market is VERY aligned is more a case of sour grapes than good economic practice.

[grasshopper]

 

If being part of a bigger union has no benefits above free trade, why not just have a free trade and no union?

If being part of a bigger union has additional benefits above those from free trade, why not allow free trade with an external state, as then all member states get the benefits of free trade with each other, free trade with the external state AND the additional benefits within their union.

Please note I did not vote for Brexit and think it is a bad idea, however I think the fact the EU is reluctant to have free trade with an ex-state who's market is VERY aligned is more a case of sour grapes than good economic practice.

Brexit is about divergence, not current and future alignment (DA). If the latter was the case a FTA with the EU would have been relatively straightforward.

Edited December 2, 2020 by grasshopper

[grasshopper]

 

Imagine the USA is a powerful nation formed of 50 individual states. Imagine that it is the truth that working together in one union means the whole is greater than the sum of the parts such that everyone is better off when they all stick together. 

Now imagine that there is one very rich state which given continued access to the resources and markets of the rest but without sharing the responsibilities of the rest would be better off. It is relatively easy to imagine this would make sense to some selfish people who won't look at the longer term consequences to believe they should be separate from the whole.

But now return to my first point. Imagine if other states saw this one being better off and thought, well, we're the next best off, we could probably also do better. And then repeat this process until the whole thing collapses and everyone resorts back to being just individual states. Suddenly the first point ceases to apply, the whole is no longer than the sum of the parts and the lose of the whole causes all of them to be worse off that they were. 

To me, if I were left in one of the remaining 49 states after the rich state had broken off, I'd want to make sure that we showed clearly that staying together is better so that others who are short sighted don't get sucked into the selfish thinking.

You just can't seem to get your head around this story even though it has been told to you on this thread for years. You refuse to understand it.

Excellent post.

Add to that the right of any individual to travel, live and work freely in any of those states irrespective of their own personal wealth. A right which exemplifies one of the the great pillars of a free and open society.

[Biggus]

 

Have you been to any other countries recently? Most of us (British folk) might just recognise a 1st world UK if we squint hard into the rear view mirror of 20 years ago but not today.

Running up to 2016, much of the immigration fuel was provided as a result of following/allowing missguided US foriegn policy, which actively undermined and created failed states from previously functioning countries around Europes boarders, leading to huge spikes of displaced hungry people.

True. But I wasn't just talking about physical infrastructure, like roads and railways. The British political and legal system, while not without fault, are pretty good. We have an OK-ish, if a bit expensive and bloated, health service. If you ask me the working people should reap the dividend. On the other hand some people think the likes of the Amazon Corporation should get all the benefit of the infrastructure and have the workers work twenty hour shifts for third world pay, as it's only fair.

The past twenty odd years have been a disaster for the economy, no doubt. It doesn't need to be that way, though. Leaving the EU was a good start.

'

[jonb2]

 

This is quite amusing. A Mogg-head apparently pretending to be a labour supporter who voted remain.

His message is that there isn't enough competition between farmers, they (the rich ones ?) should 'innovate' and that agricultural land is too expensive.

So basically it sounds like our lefty remainer is hoping (on behalf of whom I wonder ?) Brexit will help smash up British farmers and offer the chance of a lifetime to buy up their land on the cheap ?

 

 

Thanks for this Pig, and as you said, the 'UK bypassed' image in your previous post told 1000 words.

What is most interesting is how nepotistic and cliquey this whole Johnson cabel  is.

https://www.thenational.scot/news/18903737.boris-johnson-looks-hand-90k-a-year-tory-party-job-fiancees-chum/

Is Sam really the son of Baron Frost? A quick Google tells me he's an Australian actress with the usual relationship issues. Explains why so many people are confused and think the Tories are all good eggs if they are in bed with people from Home and Away.

And talking of farming as Sam does.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/27/report-casts-doubt-uk-pledge-prevent-low-quality-food-imports-brexit

Want to complain? - they are making plans - not a chance of a police state soon, no sirree!

https://netpol.org/2020/11/26/government-plans-major-crackdown-in-2021-on-the-right-to-protest/

Or that our chancellor is influenced by big business interests

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/nov/27/huge-wealth-of-sunaks-family-not-declared-in-ministerial-register