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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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In my view they don't think the nascent EU model on consumer data protection is the best route to maximise profits.

There could be some truth in that - the Covid app debacle appeared to start with their intransigence over managing peoples private data.

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I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

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The "therefores" don't follow in lines above. 

Many things were possible. But the EU offered nothing at any point. 

Immigration, minimum wage world, eroding localism: these are not concerns peculiar to England.  Many eu countries share these concerns. 

But no. Refusal to discuss. Refusal to concede. 

That's partly why they lost. 

That's not true.

Go back and look at the deal Cameron was offered, that plus enforcing powers we already had could have dealt with most of the concerns Brexit voter had. Certainly a better future for them than they have now.  

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Finance Bill whispered to be coming next week, will likely contain more contentious clauses, might not be great timing for the ongoing talks. And it's a money bill, House of Lords can't block it.

Still no word from NI Joint Commission on which goods will be tariff free - "risk free" - GB-NI. UK negotiators feel this delay (and others around 3rd country listing) is the EU using leverage and the Finance Bill will give UK unilateral right to determine risk free goods from end of transition. Yes, Belfast, you will get your M&S bangers. Breaks the terms of the WA/NI Protocol.

UK logic was likely same with the IM Bill - it gives the UK right to scrap export summary declarations NI-GB (also something that could have been resolved by JC, still could in a FTA) and change the way state aid law applies to NI (fearing reach-back to UK state aid decisions) - which might be covered if the UK agrees to some kind of subsidy regs with independent oversight or otherwise.

UK saying you've kept us - and people of NI - waiting to the last few weeks of transition on essential matters just to tighten the screws on us and help you get the deal you want, so if you don't give us the FTA with tariff free zone into NI we're going to pass legislation to have autonomy over our internal market from Jan 2021, even if it breaks the treaty/international law. I'd guess this is why the story of a grace period for NI leaked, it might be the EU trying to kick the can.

If we go to no deal I imagine the UK will claim the JC has manifestly failed to facilitate the smooth introduction of the NI Protocol - backed by cross-Community support - and they'll demand immediate renegotiation of the WA. They'll pass the Finance Bill and bangers will be flooding into NI in the opening weeks of January.

UK will then be facing isolation from EU, legal disputes, trade and travel chaos and political crisis.

EU will be facing collapse of their negotiations with departing member state, Barnier retiring, SM integrity threatened at NI-ROI border, ROI furious over tariffs into UK, ROI and coastal states angry about loss of fishing grounds - on top of the budget showdown with Poland and Hungary.

Strong incentives for both sides to get the deal.

Most likely route...can't be extension...UK pulls the new clauses...maybe one year grace period (transition but no payments) just for NI...EU fishing quotas cut by 10% and then phased down very slowly (or go to review) over ten/20 years...independent body to agree on UK alignment on regs/subsidies but no ECJ final say...whole deal subject to review after five years...break clauses.

 

 

 

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 I can't and won't agree that people in England, or any other place on Earth, have some special right to be treated better than other people.  

 

The British people were bequeathed a wealth of infrastructure and knowedge paid for by the blood and sweat of our ancestors. This gives us the privilige of a higher standard of living. I don't feel that giving it away or impoverishing ourselves in the interests of 'fairness' is a good idea. Instead we should attempt to increase the wealth of our little island so that future generations are even better off.

The rest of the world can look after themselves.

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Whose issue is that? That's your issue!

I admit to that, yes dugs. Well qualified young EE’s coming to my home town to take on sandwich making jobs (and similar) was an issue for me and mine.  I also feel it was an issue for the young EE’s tbemselves, and for the communities they were leaving. 
 

Stopping this particular aspect of FoM is a benefit of Brexit - yes, one of the few, and undoubtedly not worth the collateral damage. 
 

And before you respond, I am aware that the U.K. government could have done things to limit or mitigate the detrimental impact of this migration flow from within the EU. The simple truth is that both Labour and Conservative governments dismissed the issue as either unimportant or based on bigotry. 
 

Similar to you, I am mightily put off by the Political Class of 2020, but my response will be to vote Green rather than not vote at all, at least until the current crop have departed. 

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I admit to that, yes dugs. Well qualified young EE’s coming to my home town to take on sandwich making jobs (and similar) was an issue for me and mine.  I also feel it was an issue for the young EE’s tbemselves, and for the communities they were leaving. 
 

Stopping this particular aspect of FoM is a benefit of Brexit - yes, one of the few, and undoubtedly not worth the collateral damage. 

Why was it an issue for you? 

Why is it a benefit to you to stop this?

Why is it a benefit to stop a foreigner from having a job?

 

The simple truth is that both Labour and Conservative governments dismissed the issue as either unimportant or based on bigotry. 

Astounding.

Edited by dugsbody
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UK saying you've kept us - and people of NI - waiting to the last few weeks of transition on essential matters just to tighten the screws on us and help you get the deal you want, so if you don't give us the FTA with tariff free zone into NI we're going to pass legislation to have autonomy over our internal market from Jan 2021, even if it breaks the treaty/international law. I'd guess this is why the story of a grace period for NI leaked, it might be the EU trying to kick the can.

 

If we go to no deal I imagine the UK will claim the JC has manifestly failed to facilitate the smooth introduction of the NI Protocol - backed by cross-Community support - and they'll demand immediate renegotiation of the WA. They'll pass the Finance Bill and bangers will be flooding into NI in the opening weeks of January.

 

 

 

 

Isn't it the other way around? You are using twisted logic now.

You are still the one asking for Brexit cake and keep blaming the EU for not getting it.

Brexit will have an impact on everyone, it's a Frankenstein Monster soon to be released, made in the UK by Brexiters.

 

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I was suggesting it might be their vision, it's not mine.

But things are still cooling with China - bringing forward the Huawei ban this week surprised me - and I think Johnson is set on closer links with India.

This would mean more open immigration, as part of any FTA. Also seeing estimates of up to 400K overseas Brit passport holders in Hong Kong coming to UK in 2021. The UK will not be getting more ethnically homogenous after Brexit, which is a good thing in my view.

India announced a few months ago that all processing of data for Indian citizens had to be in India. It's off the table. 

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The British people were bequeathed a wealth of infrastructure and knowedge paid for by the blood and sweat of our ancestors. This gives us the privilige of a higher standard of living. I don't feel that giving it away or impoverishing ourselves in the interests of 'fairness' is a good idea. Instead we should attempt to increase the wealth of our little island so that future generations are even better off.

The rest of the world can look after themselves.

The UK's infrastructure was built on the profits of stealing stuff of the ancestors of those people, though, or in some cases stealing the brothers and sisters of their ancestors. 

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The British people were bequeathed a wealth of infrastructure and knowedge paid for by the blood and sweat of our ancestors. This gives us the privilige of a higher standard of living. I don't feel that giving it away or impoverishing ourselves in the interests of 'fairness' is a good idea. Instead we should attempt to increase the wealth of our little island so that future generations are even better off.

The rest of the world can look after themselves.

We've got enough wealth, we doing ourselves a lot more harm than good by trying to pursue more. Where we go wrong is in how it's distributed, and having more won't change that.

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We've got enough wealth, we doing ourselves a lot more harm than good by trying to pursue more. Where we go wrong is in how it's distributed, and having more won't change that.

Having less than now is unlikely to make things any easier, especially if so self-inflicted. The Scandinavian countries are far from perfect but seem to do a reasonable job of having high standards of living and more equitable distribution. Norway is a bit of an outlier as it has a lot of oil and gas per capita and also didn't squander the profits quite as much. However, Denmark doesn't have massive mineral resources and doesn't seem to do too badly.

Whether the UK, being rather larger, could emulate that model is another matter. Maybe constituent parts in a looser, more devolved set up with the EU could have done? Scotland, Wales, NI, Greater Kernow Empire incorporating Devon, Dorset and Somerset, Londonium, South East, Brummieland, The North (except Lancashire) and The Kingdom of Lancashire and Scouseland? 

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Isn't it the other way around? You are using twisted logic now.

You are still the one asking for Brexit cake and keep blaming the EU for not getting it.

Brexit will have an impact on everyone, it's a Frankenstein Monster soon to be released, made in the UK by Brexiters.

 

I'm not expecting Brexit cake - more like Brexit gruel - and I don't know who's responsible for the inadequacies of the JC, or if the JC has been let down by one/both sides, but it's clear the NI Protocol isn't ready for the people of NI.

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I think England would be directed to some sort of EEA associate membership. The UK won't be around to rejoin. 

If the Protocol works then NI should benefit from SM membership and any UK deals, Wales voted to leave and Scotland would be looking at a hard border, currency strife and ten years at least before their budget was close to EU requirements for membership.

Reports of the UK's demise are in my view overstated.

Leonard said his questions about spending were “reasonable and rational” since the annual government expenditure and revenue Scotland report (Gers) found Scotland’s fiscal deficit last year was 8.6% of GDP, up from 7.4% last year.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/aug/26/scotland-deficit-rises-to-nearly-2000-per-person

 

 

Edited by thehowler
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If the Protocol works then NI should benefit from SM membership and any UK deals, Wales voted to leave and Scotland would be looking at a hard border, currency strife and ten years at least before their budget was close to EU requirements for membership.

Reports of the UK's demise are in my view overstated.

Leonard said his questions about spending were “reasonable and rational” since the annual government expenditure and revenue Scotland report (Gers) found Scotland’s fiscal deficit last year was 8.6% of GDP, up from 7.4% last year.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/aug/26/scotland-deficit-rises-to-nearly-2000-per-person

 

 

Who said Scotland has to rejoin the EU immediately? 

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I admit to that, yes dugs. Well qualified young EE’s coming to my home town to take on sandwich making jobs (and similar) was an issue for me and mine.  I also feel it was an issue for the young EE’s tbemselves, and for the communities they were leaving. 
 

Stopping this particular aspect of FoM is a benefit of Brexit - yes, one of the few, and undoubtedly not worth the collateral damage. 
 

And before you respond, I am aware that the U.K. government could have done things to limit or mitigate the detrimental impact of this migration flow from within the EU. The simple truth is that both Labour and Conservative governments dismissed the issue as either unimportant or based on bigotry. 
 

Similar to you, I am mightily put off by the Political Class of 2020, but my response will be to vote Green rather than not vote at all, at least until the current crop have departed. 

No it isn't that could have been done under the FOM rules.  

Just another one of the many things complained about that were actually caused by decisions taken by our sovereign UK government and then blamed on the UK. 

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If the Protocol works then NI should benefit from SM membership and any UK deals, Wales voted to leave and Scotland would be looking at a hard border, currency strife and ten years at least before their budget was close to EU requirements for membership.

Reports of the UK's demise are in my view overstated.

Leonard said his questions about spending were “reasonable and rational” since the annual government expenditure and revenue Scotland report (Gers) found Scotland’s fiscal deficit last year was 8.6% of GDP, up from 7.4% last year.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/aug/26/scotland-deficit-rises-to-nearly-2000-per-person

 

 

Scotland would get a great deal, unlike the UK v EU they actually have some very strong cards to play in negotiations. If they vote for independence, I guess that they would be offered a devolution deal that was Independence in all but name to entice them to stay in the UK. 

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Scotland would get a great deal, unlike the UK v EU they actually have some very strong cards to play in negotiations. If they vote for independence, I guess that they would be offered a devolution deal that was Independence in all but name to entice them to stay in the UK. 

Their exports to EU are only about 20%, their GDP is tiny, their deficit is huge. Oil would be contested (as would fishing) and is declining. They'd want the Common Travel Area to continue (I imagine) which might be tricky for the EU, given the border and huge volume of trade with England. They'd be expected to take the Euro and Sturgeon is on record saying she wouldn't want to give up the pound.

Maybe they'd try the Norway route?

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Who said Scotland has to rejoin the EU immediately? 

The First Minister.

SCOTLAND WOULD BE able to rejoin the European Union relatively quickly if it were independent, Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has said.

The Scottish National Party (SNP) leader said that Scotland would be “seeking a way back in” to the EU if Brexit goes ahead.

https://www.thejournal.ie/independent-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-rejoining-eu-4906104-Nov2019/

 

 

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