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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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As for immigration it was a mixture of a misplaced blame for the economic hardship,

Yes

xenophobia

possibly

and conviction that EEs are somehow inferior (British superior).  

Absolutely not.  
 

The issue was that vastly superior, well educated, highly qualified, harder working EEs were coming to the U.K. to do near minimum wage jobs. Not that they were inferior to our own lads and lasses at all.   

I always seem to agree with the start of your posts Slawek, but then disagree with where you end up...

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I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

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1. Can anyone at all remember the remain slogan from the referendum  (without looking it up)? It really was a poor campaign. 

It relied on rationality not provably false slogans. 

 

2. I have a slight recollection that the eu didn't help either. Did they hint we'd get nothing out of them and were getting too much already? ( that may be later? )

No, the EU simply indicated what the requirements of the single market are. The issue was people like Hannon lying about being able to be in the SM without FoM. 

 

3. The argument  that brexit areas had least immigrants (therefore it couldn't be immigration) is just wrong. It was the main issue everywhere people voted brexit. 

That's provably incorrect. 

 

Also, some areas with few immigrants are concentrating them in one town. That makes them very conspicuous. (I suspect some councils are making money from volunteering for them; one town has loads and the next  one over few for no apparent reason)

There is some truth in this, but that's where the job vacancies were.

 

4. A lot of the beliefs may well not have been true. Eg the UK paying child support for children who had returned to Poland for years. 

It's not true, except where people were not known to have returned, but I see you changed the benefit you say people were receiving. 

 

 

Or immigrants lowering wages which the government  did deliberately and were not going to stop.

There isn't any evidence of this. Globalisation may have any effect, something the ERG embraces. 

 

But they were never convincingly contradicted by remain except by calling them racist.

Remain published research which Leave said was to he ignored. 

 

Once they had braved that slur, their arguments found no opposition. . And the list of grievances was long. 

5. Interesting that the other factor behind brexit of people being fed up with a minimum wage existence is hardly ever addressed ( except to say gloatingly it will get worse). This is the basic problem. 

No, plenty of people in the Remain campaign noted it but said that trashing the economy wasn't going to help. 

 

People gave up on politics for about 25 years. Now they've re engaged because they've realised they have to get engaged to change it. 

If their issues are not addressed, i suspect it will slowly drift down into 1970's militancy.

This is sadly likely as things are unlikely to improve. 

 

The have nots may be less divided than they were in the 1970's too. They have found common ground.  

The only thing that seems conspicuous by its absence at the moment  is violence. The young seem very placid. For now. 

The young voted for remain,on the whole. 

 

No its right. From 'Remain' areas perspective the Leave area immigrant panic was laughable but from memory the subtler point sometimes missed is that there may have been a a larger percentage change in European immigrants.

That could be possible. 

 

A bit like the 70s when a Carribean turns up in a English village and the children are rushed indoors for safety :)

 

 

It is true that Remainers ware rubbish. Have they done a better job the UK would likely stay in the EU as Leavers won only by a few percent. Would that have settled the issue? Definitely not, most Leavers wouldn't have changed their mind whatever the Remain campaign would have been. They have been fed lies about the EU for many years. Their belief about the UK exceptionalism has been deeply rooted in the British past. There was no way to convince them that staying was a better option. To some degree what have happened is a better outcome as it will allow their misconceptions to be confronted with the reality. The EU needs a strong pro-EU UK, not one on a verge of changing their mind. Brexit is the best way to educate those people why the UK needs the EU.

52:48 in the other direction and Farage would not have accepted it. 

 

The EU doesn't own the UK anything and it is not in their interest to bribe the UK to stay in at the expense of other members. The UK has to know itself what it wants and why it wants. It has to be a grown up relationship, not one based on continuous blackmailing: give me something or I leave you.  

+1

 

As for immigration it was a mixture of a misplaced blame for the economic hardship, xenophobia and conviction that EEs are somehow inferior (British superior).    

 

 

You put the eu intransigence very well. 

The EU should not stick to its principles for membership because it doesn't suit a country that is leaving??? 

 

That's partly why england left. 

If the EU was intransigent before, how did the UK get its special treatment and why did the UK keep voting for what the EU was doing? 

 

As for the belief that England will come crawling back, this time keen remainers: that won't happen. 

No, I think the EU is done. England will seek EEA membership in 20 years. The UK will be over before then. 

 

It's no good brushing the immigration grievance under the table by playing the insult card. It's a real issue in several eu countries. 

Also very telling that you completely ignore the minimum wage world grievance. 

You don't improve minimum wages by trashing the economy. Since thee is no other market of 500 million people next door with different rules it doesn't leave many options. Wishing it was something else doesn't change the reality. The better response is to run the country better. For example, standards of living are better in several EU countries. 

 

I don't see any desire in Brussels to fix any of the problems that so inflamed half the English.  

No, because they probably don't why the UK is cutting off its nose in spite. 

 

They will go on conceding nothing until Europe itself bursts into gilets jaunes. 

Which is vanishingly unlikely. 

 

England leaving doesn't fix any of the problems that made england leave.

They are mostly England's problems, that's why. 

 

(And it doesn't fix insolvency in the south either). 

Why would it? 

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The "therefores" don't follow in lines above. 

Many things were possible. But the EU offered nothing at any point. 

Immigration, minimum wage world, eroding localism: these are not concerns peculiar to England.  Many eu countries share these concerns. 

But no. Refusal to discuss. Refusal to concede. 

That's partly why they lost. 

Your argument is too vague, there is nothing in there to specifically refute. 

For example, if you want to make that argument, can you propose an offer the EU should have made? Here is one:

If you want access to EU markets as a large geographical neighbour who has threatened to undercut us, then we would like the following - agree to a set of minimum standards, agree to not diverge from those standards, you don't have to pay in, you don't have to have freedom of movement, keep your old agreements such as the GFA and the common fisheries policy. If you agree to all of this then we can work together, we can come to an arrangement where your financial services sector can continue to service EU clients.

So that is an example, now how about you name something the EU should have offered?

As for localisation over globalisation. What that basically means as I said before, rich developed countries want to sell their high cost medicines, services, engineering to low cost developing countries but they also don't want to let those developing countries have any of the low cost jobs.

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Boris is going to roll over soon and let Barnier tickle his tummy shortly.

I am soon expecting a full Boris bluster announcing that we are entering a new phase of a 'perpetual period of transitional alignment.'  

We will retain access to the single market and full regulatory and legal alignment; we'll pay a £350m a week access fee, but get no programme funding back and have no voting rights. 

Win win all round!

And of course the only trade deals allowed will be the one aligned with EU rules, like the cut and paste jobs with Japan and Canada.

 

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What does remain in, say ten years look like?

The UK has successfully influenced policy such that Germany agrees to share its surplus with monetary transfers. Italy has made steps to resolving corruption and inefficiencies and is enjoying an economic boom stimulated by the first policy. Greece has recovered completely and citizens are now unhappy as property prices have rocketed. The UK tech industry has thrived with London a hub of young EU tech workers and talent from outside the EU rushing in too. The UK government learned their lessons about the regions and is experiencing a boom on the back of infrastructure spending with several Northern cities experiencing rapid growth. Of course locals are now unhappy there too as property prices have risen as a result. The migrant crisis continues to rumble on unfortunately as several extreme weather events have caused some alarm and spurred further economic migrants. Italy, Greece, Spain and France have taken matters into their own hands and have started patrolling their seas with more intensity but unfortunately the result is nothing spectacular since they're at a loss of what to do with the boats once captured. As a result they've set up large camps to process migrants and attempt to return them in failure cases, again without much success. The UK continues to experience a trickle of boats across the channel and continues to plead for special treatment even though the numbers pale in comparison to the peripheral countries. The UK is leading the way on clean, green energy solutions but the Scandinavian countries are close behind with most of Europe following too. 

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Boris is going to roll over soon and let Barnier tickle his tummy shortly.

I am soon expecting a full Boris bluster announcing that we are entering a new phase of a 'perpetual period of transitional alignment.'  

We will retain access to the single market and full regulatory and legal alignment; we'll pay a £350m a week access fee, but get no programme funding back and have no voting rights. 

Win win all round!

And of course the only trade deals allowed will be the one aligned with EU rules, like the cut and paste jobs with Japan and Canada.

 

High Priest Farage will bring him to the 'true' path...unless BoJo has the b*lls to make a clean break in the conservative church.

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I don't understand what is your point about minimum wage. My view we need minimum wage as capitalism exploits the weakest most.  On the global scale we need to level wages, it is not acceptable that the same work in different places entitles you to different claims on resources and other people work. Unfortunately that potentially means a lower quality of life in West as resources are finite. This is likely to be a temporary regression as in the long term technological progress will compensate for it. I can't and won't agree that people in England, or any other place on Earth, have some special right to be treated better than other people.  

That is the real core of it.

 

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I always seem to agree with the start of your posts Slawek, but then disagree with where you end up...

"The issue was that vastly superior, well educated, highly qualified, harder working EEs were coming to the U.K. to do near minimum wage jobs. Not that they were inferior to our own lads and lasses at all.   "

Whose issue is that? That's your issue!

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People gave up on politics for about 25 years. Now they've re engaged because they've realised they have to get engaged to change it. 

Brexit and the last few elections have made me give up on politics. I have realised even more how fundamentally broken our "democratic" system is.

I won't be participating again until someone guarantees to reform it.

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Boris is going to roll over soon and let Barnier tickle his tummy shortly.

I am soon expecting a full Boris bluster announcing that we are entering a new phase of a 'perpetual period of transitional alignment.'  

We will retain access to the single market and full regulatory and legal alignment; we'll pay a £350m a week access fee, but get no programme funding back and have no voting rights. 

Win win all round!

And of course the only trade deals allowed will be the one aligned with EU rules, like the cut and paste jobs with Japan and Canada.

 

The UK-Japan deal already breaks EU principles/regs on data protection...

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Another strange intervention from a German politician...this CDU guy is running for Chancellor.

I don't think it's helpful for Barnier. At first glance it appears to be directed at UK but can also be read as a just-get-on-with-it quip to the Commission.

 

 

Edited by thehowler
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The UK-Japan deal already breaks EU principles/regs on data protection...

Isn't that a tautology........as some data needs to stay in country.

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High Priest Farage will bring him to the 'true' path...unless BoJo has the b*lls to make a clean break in the conservative church.

I think Carrie is in charge of his balls. 

 

Another strange intervention from a German politician...this CDU guy is running for Chancellor.

I don't think it's helpful for Barnier. At first glance it appears to be directed at UK but can also be read as a just-get-on-with-it quip to the Commission.

 

 

I don't see how saying much the same as Barnier has said for more than two years undermines him. 

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Isn't that a tautology........as some data needs to stay in country.

The sense of your comment eludes me.

But regards the UK-Japan deal, I'd go further and say it undermines the UK's case to be granted data adequacy by the EU, trusted to safeguard the data of EU citizens.

As the UK diverges from the EU's digital regulatory/ethical orbit UK service providers will suffer.

Hence I think Johnson and co. are banking on more service/analytic/IP business with other continents.

They don't think the future is European.

 

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The sense of your comment eludes me.

But regards the UK-Japan deal, I'd go further and say it undermines the UK's case to be granted data adequacy by the EU, trusted to safeguard the data of EU citizens.

As the UK diverges from the EU's digital regulatory/ethical orbit UK service providers will suffer.

Hence I think Johnson and co. are banking on more service/analytic/IP business with other continents.

They don't think the future is European.

 

It's hard to see a huge growth outside Europe. Japan is a limited market, and the USA one will go mostly to the USA. China, no chance, and India's requirements are quite strict. So you are talking South America or Africa. 

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I don't see how saying much the same as Barnier has said for more than two years undermines him. 

Try reading the comment the way Sir David Frost might...smooth economic transition has to be the priority, we can't allow the cost of no deal to our economies (no deal is not an option), just take the best we can get and sign the deal, Barnier...exclamation mark.

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It's hard to see a huge growth outside Europe. Japan is a limited market, and the USA one will go mostly to the USA. China, no chance, and India's requirements are quite strict. So you are talking South America or Africa. 

So Johnson's digital plan involves hosting email spambots for Nigerian Princes?

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It's hard to see a huge growth outside Europe. Japan is a limited market, and the USA one will go mostly to the USA. China, no chance, and India's requirements are quite strict. So you are talking South America or Africa. 

I was suggesting it might be their vision, it's not mine.

But things are still cooling with China - bringing forward the Huawei ban this week surprised me - and I think Johnson is set on closer links with India.

This would mean more open immigration, as part of any FTA. Also seeing estimates of up to 400K overseas Brit passport holders in Hong Kong coming to UK in 2021. The UK will not be getting more ethnically homogenous after Brexit, which is a good thing in my view.

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The sense of your comment eludes me.

But regards the UK-Japan deal, I'd go further and say it undermines the UK's case to be granted data adequacy by the EU, trusted to safeguard the data of EU citizens.

As the UK diverges from the EU's digital regulatory/ethical orbit UK service providers will suffer.

Hence I think Johnson and co. are banking on more service/analytic/IP business with other continents.

They don't think the future is European.

 

Sounds like in your view they're banking on a world of insular closed shops where every country and trade zone 'brexits' from each other.

As the world converges better to trade with all continents rather than especially not the one you're in because of some teenage strop.

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Sounds like in your view they're banking on a world of insular closed shops where every country and trade zone 'brexits' from each other.

As the world converges better to trade with all continents rather than especially not the one you're in because of some teenage strop.

In my view they don't think the nascent EU model on consumer data protection is the best route to maximise profits.

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