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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

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No, just Spain. The like to penalise non-EU citizens, it too a decade of court action to force equal treatment of non-Spanish EU citizens in CGT.

Then we left the EU, lol.

What's hilarious are all these thicko Brexshiteers in the Tory Populist Party demanding 'impact assessment' reports into the economic impact of a temporary lockdown, but were and still are silent on any 'impact assessment' report into the long-term damage Brexshit will wrought. 

Edited by MonsieurCopperCrutch
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The problem with this narrative as the places that voted most strongly for leave were, in general, the places with lower levels of European immigration.

But none of those things were actually true. The bit that is especially not true is the nonsense about pregnancy as given the agreements on health care between EU member states, then if you aren't working your originating state continues to pay for your medical care in your host country and very much so when you return. Indeed, it's how British 'ex-pats' get their bills paid in Spain, etc.

1. Can anyone at all remember the remain slogan from the referendum  (without looking it up)? It really was a poor campaign. 

2. I have a slight recollection that the eu didn't help either. Did they hint we'd get nothing out of them and were getting too much already? ( that may be later? )

3. The argument  that brexit areas had least immigrants (therefore it couldn't be immigration) is just wrong. It was the main issue everywhere people voted brexit. 

Also, some areas with few immigrants are concentrating them in one town. That makes them very conspicuous. (I suspect some councils are making money from volunteering for them; one town has loads and the next  one over few for no apparent reason)

4. A lot of the beliefs may well not have been true. Eg the UK paying child support for children who had returned to Poland for years.  Or immigrants lowering wages which the government  did deliberately and were not going to stop. But they were never convincingly contradicted by remain except by calling them racist. Once they had braved that slur, their arguments found no opposition. . And the list of grievances was long. 

5. Interesting that the other factor behind brexit of people being fed up with a minimum wage existence is hardly ever addressed ( except to say gloatingly it will get worse). This is the basic problem. 

People gave up on politics for about 25 years. Now they've re engaged because they've realised they have to get engaged to change it. 

If their issues are not addressed, i suspect it will slowly drift down into 1970's militancy.

The have nots may be less divided than they were in the 1970's too. They have found common ground.  

The only thing that seems conspicuous by its absence at the moment  is violence. The young seem very placid. For now. 

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6. I've remembered something else: a suspicion going round that if we voted yes, we were signing up to ever increasing bills for solidarity from Brussels.  

Again, never contradicted by remain. Or not audibly. 

(Has that multi billion eu grant gone through yet?)

7. After the referendum, the eu could have thrown us a few fish and everyone could have declared victory. But instead, they offered nothing. Silence. That seems like they didn't play their cards too well either. There was no offer, before or after. 

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You mean the UK? Of course.

No I mean England. Scotlands not bothered and may rejoin the EU in the next 10 years or so. Wales I'll admit I'm not sure about other than apparently being carried along in Englands wake during the referendum.

'Br'exit seems to me to be mainly an English problem forced on the other nations.

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3. The argument  that brexit areas had least immigrants (therefore it couldn't be immigration) is just wrong. It was the main issue everywhere people voted brexit. 

Also, some areas with few immigrants are concentrating them in one town. That makes them very conspicuous. (I suspect some councils are making money from volunteering for them; one town has loads and the next  one over few for no apparent reason)

 

No its right. From 'Remain' areas perspective the Leave area immigrant panic was laughable but from memory the subtler point sometimes missed is that there may have been a a larger percentage change in European immigrants.

A bit like the 70s when a Carribean turns up in a English village and the children are rushed indoors for safety :)

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Very many if not already, that voted Brexit will one day regret it......very few that voted remain will wish they had voted Brexit.........the EU is not perfect, leaving will not be perfect either, the negative impact of leaving especially without a good deal will be felt by those who voted leave, but they might say they voted on principal and are prepared to accept the consequences.;)

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> ...very few that voted remain will wish they had voted Brexit...

Yes, I doubt we could ever identify such remainers that would be statistically measurable.

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7. After the referendum, the eu could have thrown us a few fish and everyone could have declared victory. But instead, they offered nothing. Silence. That seems like they didn't play their cards too well either. There was no offer, before or after. 

That is not true. As you have correctly pointed out, the vote was mostly about immigration and people wanted freedom of movement to end. So that had to happen and therefore no chance of single market access. Therefore no chance of EEA. Therefore the rest was about trying to pick up the best trade deal the UK could get while the EU was busy puzzling over a country who told all their citizens they could undercut the EU and do much better outside, insulting them for 40 years, and now demanding access to their markets.

 

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That is not true. As you have correctly pointed out, the vote was mostly about immigration and people wanted freedom of movement to end. So that had to happen and therefore no chance of single market access. Therefore no chance of EEA. Therefore the rest was about trying to pick up the best trade deal the UK could get while the EU was busy puzzling over a country who told all their citizens they could undercut the EU and do much better outside, insulting them for 40 years, and now demanding access to their markets.

 

 

The "therefores" don't follow in lines above. 

Many things were possible. But the EU offered nothing at any point. 

Immigration, minimum wage world, eroding localism: these are not concerns peculiar to England.  Many eu countries share these concerns. 

But no. Refusal to discuss. Refusal to concede. 

That's partly why they lost. 

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1. Can anyone at all remember the remain slogan from the referendum  (without looking it up)? It really was a poor campaign. 

2. I have a slight recollection that the eu didn't help either. Did they hint we'd get nothing out of them and were getting too much already? ( that may be later? )

3. The argument  that brexit areas had least immigrants (therefore it couldn't be immigration) is just wrong. It was the main issue everywhere people voted brexit. 

Also, some areas with few immigrants are concentrating them in one town. That makes them very conspicuous. (I suspect some councils are making money from volunteering for them; one town has loads and the next  one over few for no apparent reason)

4. A lot of the beliefs may well not have been true. Eg the UK paying child support for children who had returned to Poland for years.  Or immigrants lowering wages which the government  did deliberately and were not going to stop. But they were never convincingly contradicted by remain except by calling them racist. Once they had braved that slur, their arguments found no opposition. . And the list of grievances was long. 

5. Interesting that the other factor behind brexit of people being fed up with a minimum wage existence is hardly ever addressed ( except to say gloatingly it will get worse). This is the basic problem. 

People gave up on politics for about 25 years. Now they've re engaged because they've realised they have to get engaged to change it. 

If their issues are not addressed, i suspect it will slowly drift down into 1970's militancy.

The have nots may be less divided than they were in the 1970's too. They have found common ground.  

The only thing that seems conspicuous by its absence at the moment  is violence. The young seem very placid. For now. 

It is true that Remainers ware rubbish. Have they done a better job the UK would likely stay in the EU as Leavers won only by a few percent. Would that have settled the issue? Definitely not, most Leavers wouldn't have changed their mind whatever the Remain campaign would have been. They have been fed lies about the EU for many years. Their belief about the UK exceptionalism has been deeply rooted in the British past. There was no way to convince them that staying was a better option. To some degree what have happened is a better outcome as it will allow their misconceptions to be confronted with the reality. The EU needs a strong pro-EU UK, not one on a verge of changing their mind. Brexit is the best way to educate those people why the UK needs the EU.

The EU doesn't own the UK anything and it is not in their interest to bribe the UK to stay in at the expense of other members. The UK has to know itself what it wants and why it wants. It has to be a grown up relationship, not one based on continuous blackmailing: give me something or I leave you.  

As for immigration it was a mixture of a misplaced blame for the economic hardship, xenophobia and conviction that EEs are somehow inferior (British superior).    

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The "therefores" don't follow in lines above. 

Many things were possible. But the EU offered nothing at any point. 

Immigration, minimum wage world, eroding localism: these are not concerns peculiar to England.  Many eu countries share these concerns. 

But no. Refusal to discuss. Refusal to concede. 

That's partly why they lost. 

Still blaming the EU? Sorry to disagree with you, but you sound almost like Trump.

Just to remind you Brexit was made in the UK, delivered in the UK and completed in the UK.

 

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It is true that Remainers ware rubbish. Have they done a better job the UK would likely stay in the EU as Leavers won only by a few percent. Would that have settled the issue? Definitely not, most Leavers wouldn't have changed their mind whatever the Remain campaign would have been. They have been fed lies about the EU for many years. Their belief about the UK exceptionalism has been deeply rooted in the British past. There was no way to convince them that staying was a better option. To some degree what have happened is a better outcome as it will allow their misconceptions to be confronted with the reality. The EU needs a strong pro-EU UK, not one on a verge of changing their mind. Brexit is the best way to educate those people why the UK needs the EU.

The EU doesn't own the UK anything and it is not in their interest to bribe the UK to stay in at the expense of other members. The UK has to know itself what it wants and why it wants. It has to be a grown up relationship, not one based on continuous blackmailing: give me something or I leave you.  

As for immigration it was a mixture of a misplaced blame for the economic hardship, xenophobia and conviction that EEs are somehow inferior (British superior).    

What does remain in, say ten years look like?

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You know it's just too little too late to blame oneself or others for Brexit vote.

Could politicians from the EU and the UK make the final concessions and struck a post-Brexit trade deal this week?

 

The settlement, if we can find one, is still so politically charged. Too many people want to see 'the other side' humiliated. And this was always going to be the testing time.

Interesting comment from Merkel today...

"Britain and the EU share common values. If we failed to reach a deal, it would not send a good signal."

https://www.dw.com/en/angela-merkel-no-deal-brexit-would-send-a-bad-signal-to-the-world/a-55775382

 

 

Edited by thehowler
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The settlement, if we can find one, is still so politically charged. Too many people want to see 'the other side' humiliated. And this was always going to be the testing time.

Interesting comment from Merkel today...

"Britain and the EU share common values. If we failed to reach a deal, it would not send a good signal."

https://www.dw.com/en/angela-merkel-no-deal-brexit-would-send-a-bad-signal-to-the-world/a-55775382

 

 

The EU needs to be seen to win and to be seen to have shafted the UK, otherwise the whole EU experiment falls apart as others decide to go or to ask for special treatment.  They will be prepared to suffer short term pain and can afford to suffer it.  

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It is true that Remainers ware rubbish. Have they done a better job the UK would likely stay in the EU as Leavers won only by a few percent. Would that have settled the issue? Definitely not, most Leavers wouldn't have changed their mind whatever the Remain campaign would have been. They have been fed lies about the EU for many years. Their belief about the UK exceptionalism has been deeply rooted in the British past. There was no way to convince them that staying was a better option. To some degree what have happened is a better outcome as it will allow their misconceptions to be confronted with the reality. The EU needs a strong pro-EU UK, not one on a verge of changing their mind. Brexit is the best way to educate those people why the UK needs the EU.

The EU doesn't own the UK anything and it is not in their interest to bribe the UK to stay in at the expense of other members. The UK has to know itself what it wants and why it wants. It has to be a grown up relationship, not one based on continuous blackmailing: give me something or I leave you.  

As for immigration it was a mixture of a misplaced blame for the economic hardship, xenophobia and conviction that EEs are somehow inferior (British superior).    

You put the eu intransigence very well. 

That's partly why england left. 

As for the belief that England will come crawling back, this time keen remainers: that won't happen. 

It's no good brushing the immigration grievance under the table by playing the insult card. It's a real issue in several eu countries. 

Also very telling that you completely ignore the minimum wage world grievance. 

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The EU needs to be seen to win and to be seen to have shafted the UK, otherwise the whole EU experiment falls apart as others decide to go or to ask for special treatment.  They will be prepared to suffer short term pain and can afford to suffer it.  

I don't see any desire in Brussels to fix any of the problems that so inflamed half the English.  

They will go on conceding nothing until Europe itself bursts into gilets jaunes. 

England leaving doesn't fix any of the problems that made england leave.

(And it doesn't fix insolvency in the south either). 

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You put the eu intransigence very well. 

That's partly why england left. 

As for the belief that England will come crawling back, this time keen remainers: that won't happen. 

It's no good brushing the immigration grievance under the table by playing the insult card. It's a real issue in several eu countries. 

Also very telling that you completely ignore the minimum wage world grievance. 

Ah so england left and it's fair to drag the rest of the union with it? 

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I don't see any desire in Brussels to fix any of the problems that so inflamed half the English.  

They will go on conceding nothing until Europe itself bursts into gilets jaunes. 

England leaving doesn't fix any of the problems that made england leave.

(And it doesn't fix insolvency in the south either). 

A lot of it was down to the UK government itself and was blamed on Brussels.  I’ve seen how EU laws a gold plated when implemented in the UK.  A lot of the resentment to immigrants is against those allowed in from former colonies.  So on the other hand I’m not expecting sunny uplands one we are out, the government seems hell bent on messing up all opportunities.  

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Ah so england left and it's fair to drag the rest of the union with it? 

Of course. The 10% cannot dictate terms to the 80%.

Have you forgotten how the french betrayed Algeria? They haven't.   

If the Scots go, good luck to them. We wish them well. But I don't think they will. 

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You put the eu intransigence very well. 

That's partly why england left. 

As for the belief that England will come crawling back, this time keen remainers: that won't happen. 

It's no good brushing the immigration grievance under the table by playing the insult card. It's a real issue in several eu countries. 

Also very telling that you completely ignore the minimum wage world grievance. 

What EU intransigence? The EU is to benefit all members not to give the UK special privileges. Is that what the EU refuse to change? I am afraid you are in a fantasy land here.  

I didn't say England will crawl back. I said Brexit was the best way to educate people about the EU. What they will do with their new knowledge is up to them. 

You need to distinguish between what people feel about immigration what the real impact is of it. How did I manage to insult you? By claiming that some people are xenophobic or feel better than others. That is quite common and not only an English sin.  My wife is like this and she is not English. 

I don't understand what is your point about minimum wage. My view we need minimum wage as capitalism exploits the weakest most.  On the global scale we need to level wages, it is not acceptable that the same work in different places entitles you to different claims on resources and other people work. Unfortunately that potentially means a lower quality of life in West as resources are finite. This is likely to be a temporary regression as in the long term technological progress will compensate for it. I can't and won't agree that people in England, or any other place on Earth, have some special right to be treated better than other people.  

 

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7. After the referendum, the eu could have thrown us a few fish and everyone could have declared victory. But instead, they offered nothing. Silence. That seems like they didn't play their cards too well either. There was no offer, before or after. 

It started well when the strategy by Downing Street was photographed: Having our cake and eating it. 

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You put the eu intransigence very well. 

That's partly why england left. 

As for the belief that England will come crawling back, this time keen remainers: that won't happen. 

It's no good brushing the immigration grievance under the table by playing the insult card. It's a real issue in several eu countries. 

Also very telling that you completely ignore the minimum wage world grievance

Yes because brexiteers such as Mogg, Redwood, IDS et al are all for a substantial pay increase for the bottom tier.

You're completely deluded. 

Edited by miguel
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