Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[OnionTerror]

 

The brexiters think they're getting all the fish back and throwing all the immigrants out. 

There is going to be trouble when they find out they've been sold out...

...Welcome to reality...

[OnionTerror]

 

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

 

Yeah, vision of Irish plates zooming past miles of lorries doesn't go down well with the UK negotiators.

Not that it's ROI's fault. I imagine the UK were always hoping ROI would cut a deal with them first, then go to the EU, but ROI struck early and placed their bets with the EU. I wish them well.

It will be in years to come when the power of the UK to negotiate in its own interest becomes more apparent and allows us to do deals that are more beneficial.

Have to agree with this - or at least, this is the Brexit hope.

On another note, thanks to DB for the Ivan Rogers link...now vanished due to the site crash.

It's worth watching the whole thing on youtube - spectator tv 60 mins - and if you go to 57:50 you'll see him saying that any UK govt he worked with, Labour or Tory, would have vetoed the recent EU fund package. He goes on to say that the inter-governmental deal to get around Cameron was when Cameron realized he had to go for the referendum. And that's one of the ploys they - the EU - are now considering to get around the Hungarian/Poland veto.

The ref, or some kind of reckoning was inevitable...and the Brit public still choose the waves.

 

Or as the SAS say, either lead, follow or get the hell out of the way.

[24gray24]

 

...Welcome to reality...

Reality hasn't started yet.

 

[OnionTerror]

 

Reality hasn't started yet.

 

That's probably true.  Too many people have their blinkers on..

[pig]

 

24 hours in a cabin. Weather permitting. Same as flying to Oz.

No land bridge will be tough for ROI, and add substantially to haulage costs. And no fault of their own.

From the comments section where I found the article the consensus was that it was (obviously) worse than the current arrangements but looking like it will be better than the post-transition arrangements.

It was expected/hoped that technology might eventually help, but England being less hysterical about its borders and returning to planet Earth would be ideal.

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

 

That's probably true.  Too many people have their blinkers on..

When do the blinkers come off?

[OnionTerror]

 

When do the blinkers come off?

There's the thought that we can become this gung-ho fwee twade nation where we can tell the EU to sod off, and we can do what we like.  

Unfortunately, global trade hasn't worked like that for forty years or so.  Tariffs in trade make up a smaller and smaller part of FTAs - it now comes to trade facilitation and the breaking down of non-tariff barriers.

Trade has become ever globalised, and if you want to be a serious trading nation, these global norms come to the fore.  As a for instance, there's COP 26, which Glasgow will be hosting next year.  This is where all this talk of net zero is coming from....or there's vehicle standards that stem from UNECE, and so on and so on..

There's balances and trade-offs between trade and sovereignty...and we will need to find that balance.  How can we fight our own corner, within this globalised system.

No deal would bring absolute chaos, but it will remove this theme of "betrayal" that runs through much of ultras, forever.  They would be spend. 

[NuBrit]

 

Sounds to me like the deal is going to happen.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-55120814

Yea, we will get a deal, a very, very bare bones Canada-lite deal. The fact that the major sticking point is fisheries tells you all you need to know about where the priorities of this government lay.

[Roman Roady]

 

The brexiters think they're getting all the fish back and throwing all the immigrants out. 

There is going to be trouble when they find out they've been sold out...

Dont forget the blue passports.

[thehowler]

 

There's the thought that we can become this gung-ho fwee twade nation where we can tell the EU to sod off, and we can do what we like.  

Unfortunately, global trade hasn't worked like that for forty years or so.  Tariffs in trade make up a smaller and smaller part of FTAs - it now comes to trade facilitation and the breaking down of non-tariff barriers.

Trade has become ever globalised, and if you want to be a serious trading nation, these global norms come to the fore.  As a for instance, there's COP 26, which Glasgow will be hosting next year.  This is where all this talk of net zero is coming from....or there's vehicle standards that stem from UNECE, and so on and so on..

There's balances and trade-offs between trade and sovereignty...and we will need to find that balance.  How can we fight our own corner, within this globalised system.

No deal would bring absolute chaos, but it will remove this theme of "betrayal" that runs through much of ultras, forever.  They would be spend. 

Is globalism working?

My own feeling is that a lot of people think it's gone too far. They want a more local world.

[OnionTerror]

 

Is globalism working?

My own feeling is that a lot of people think it's gone too far. They want a more local world.

In some respects yes, and in other respects, no.  The harmonisation of standards, and all that, are here to stay.  However, there is very much room for localism (which has been my argument for several years). Both need to work in tandem...

After the referendum, the Tories especially, have treated things as normal...but it isn't...For instance, were the British people asked or consulted about net zero?  "We're doing X, Y and X, and its tough".  Policy areas such as this are being foisted AT us...which puts people's backs up, and are less likely to comply. If they did it WITH us, then there would be more understanding and there would be more compliance.

Edited November 29, 2020 by Dave Beans

[14stFlyer]

 

Is globalism working?

My own feeling is that a lot of people think it's gone too far. They want a more local world.

At this time of year that will mean an awful lot of carrots...

[dugsbody]

 

The current deals are just a stepping point to greater independence and mitigation of the step change.

Greater independence from what exactly? We're no longer members of the EU. We're now trying to negotiate a trade deal with them.

[dugsbody]

 

It will be in years to come when the power of the UK to negotiate in its own interest becomes more apparent and allows us to do deals that are more beneficial.

Have to agree with this - or at least, this is the Brexit hope.

More beneficial than what? Which country in the world are we trying to emulate? 

[thehowler]

 

More beneficial than what? Which country in the world are we trying to emulate? 

None, the UK has taken the maverick path.

More beneficial than the current rollovers but not necessarily more profitable than if we'd stayed in the club.

At least that's my view.

I think a lot of Brexit voters just didn't want to walk the EU path, they didn't care if they'd be richer or poorer in terms of GDP.

[thehowler]

 

From the comments section where I found the article the consensus was that it was (obviously) worse than the current arrangements but looking like it will be better than the post-transition arrangements.

It was expected/hoped that technology might eventually help, but England being less hysterical about its borders and returning to planet Earth would be ideal.

You mean the UK? Of course.

[24gray24]

 

There's the thought that we can become this gung-ho fwee twade nation where we can tell the EU to sod off, and we can do what we like.  

Unfortunately, global trade hasn't worked like that for forty years or so.  Tariffs in trade make up a smaller and smaller part of FTAs - it now comes to trade facilitation and the breaking down of non-tariff barriers.

Trade has become ever globalised, and if you want to be a serious trading nation, these global norms come to the fore.  As a for instance, there's COP 26, which Glasgow will be hosting next year.  This is where all this talk of net zero is coming from....or there's vehicle standards that stem from UNECE, and so on and so on..

There's balances and trade-offs between trade and sovereignty...and we will need to find that balance.  How can we fight our own corner, within this globalised system.

No deal would bring absolute chaos, but it will remove this theme of "betrayal" that runs through much of ultras, forever.  They would be spend. 

I see more militancy if living standards get worse,  not less.  

"Betrayal" in the brexit negotiations will also create more resentment. 

Boris is in a tight spot. 

 

[OnionTerror]

 

I see more militancy if living standards get worse,  not less.  

"Betrayal" in the brexit negotiations will also create more resentment. 

Boris is in a tight spot. 

 

Its a catch 22... To roughly keep us afloat, we should have stayed in the EEA....but then that was a big no no from both sides.  For remain - we might as well have stayed in.  For Brexiteers - its not what we voted for = betrayal.

No compromise.  We're all going to suffer hardship now..

[OnionTerror]

 

None, the UK has taken the maverick path.

More beneficial than the current rollovers but not necessarily more profitable than if we'd stayed in the club.

At least that's my view.

I think a lot of Brexit voters just didn't want to walk the EU path, they didn't care if they'd be richer or poorer in terms of GDP.

Exceptionalism... Nowt wrong in leaving...but as I've said many, many, many times.  Brexit is a process - not an event..

...and they will care...  

Edited November 29, 2020 by Dave Beans

[24gray24]

 

Its a catch 22... To roughly keep us afloat, we should have stayed in the EEA....but then that was a big no no from both sides.  For remain - we might as well have stayed in.  For Brexiteers - its not what we voted for = betrayal.

No compromise.  We're all going to suffer hardship now..

It was a revolution  (of a very British sort. ).

The natives were getting restless in the face of this minimum wage + immigrants world (which suited the rich so well). 

Cameron went to Eton and didn't even know the price of milk: you couldn't think of a worse poster boy for the remain cause. 

[OnionTerror]

 

It was a revolution  (of a very British sort. ).

The natives were getting restless in the face of this minimum wage + immigrants world (which suited the rich so well). 

Cameron went to Eton and didn't even know the price of milk: you couldn't think of a worse poster boy for the remain cause. 

I absolutely get that - governments of various flavours signing treaty after treaty  - without the consent of the people.  I have also heard the argument that freedom of movement gives a transient population an equal status as a "native" citizen - thus eroding belonging and community cohesion..

However, there was never a grown up conversation (and there still isn't) about the trade offs that Brexit brings.  This will only start happening next year, when its too late.

[thehowler]

 

Exceptionalism... Nowt wrong in leaving...but as I've said many, many, many times.  Brexit is a process - not an event..

...and they will care...  

Yes, a lot of Brexit voters just wanted to be different. Nothing to do with imperialism/enlargement, those days are long gone. They just didn't want to be defined as European.

You say they'll care but I'm not even sure they'll notice. They weren't flying off to Berlin at the weekends to see the art galleries.

I don't feel the establishment ever did enough to show working Brits the real benefits of being in the EU. They kept it to themselves, taking advantage of the financial perks. And then they were outraged when a lot of people were seduced/convinced by parochial arguments.

Brexit was all about local and a failure of the Europhiles.

[OnionTerror]

 

Yes, a lot of Brexit voters just wanted to be different. Nothing to do with imperialism/enlargement, those days are long gone. They just didn't want to be defined as European.

You say they'll care but I'm not even sure they'll notice. They weren't flying off to Berlin at the weekends to see the art galleries.

I don't feel the establishment ever did enough to show working Brits the real benefits of being in the EU. They kept it to themselves, taking advantage of the financial perks. And then they were outraged when a lot of people were seduced/convinced by parochial arguments.

Brexit was all about local and a failure of the Europhiles.

As an example of exceptionalism, comes out of these talks - we want parts of the single market; but we only want Canada..

They will notice, as the factories around close up and JIT supply chains starts to disintegrate.  If your a farmer or a fisherman....Good luck..

The remain camp took it as red that they won... Leave winning would be utterly preposterous... What was the remain vision?  All they had, was the economic argument.  What does remain (in the future) look like?  Does it mean that treaty after treaty can be passed, and no more referendums.  That issue would have been settled forever... 

Edited November 29, 2020 by Dave Beans

[24gray24]

 

Yes, a lot of Brexit voters just wanted to be different. Nothing to do with imperialism/enlargement, those days are long gone. They just didn't want to be defined as European.

You say they'll care but I'm not even sure they'll notice. They weren't flying off to Berlin at the weekends to see the art galleries.

I don't feel the establishment ever did enough to show working Brits the real benefits of being in the EU. They kept it to themselves, taking advantage of the financial perks. And then they were outraged when a lot of people were seduced/convinced by parochial arguments.

Brexit was all about local and a failure of the Europhiles.

 "Too many immigrants" was the constant refrain.

Lowering wages. Getting priority for housing. Getting given loads of benefits. Getting pregnant and uk paying for them even after they'd gone back to Poland.  Straining public services. Making houses unavailable. On and on. 

It all boiled down to immigrants + minimum wage. 

And what did remain say? Visa free travel? I can't even remember a single one of their slogans. Oh wait, yes I can: better together. Ye gods. Sounds like an advert for a bank. 

Or have I mis remembered?